Mike Jackson - AutoNation, Inc.
Management
I would answer it this way. If I step back and say, okay, what's the health of the consumer and what's their appetite to buy vehicles, I think obviously they're willing to buy trucks, 65% of the mix is probably where we're headed, and that's very profitable for the manufacturers, but trucks are more expensive and they look around and see we have these unprecedented lease returns that are very attractive vehicles at a very different price point. So, if I was to say what is the size of a marketplace that I defined as new to nearly new, the marketplace is probably flat to slightly up. So, there is a shift underway. Now, my point is, you can't bring back to the marketplace 3.5 million, 4 million; ultimately 4.5 million vehicles off lease, that are nearly new, that wouldn't normally be coming back on this cycle in these volumes and not impact the new vehicle business, it's just unreasonable to think that consumers who are so price-savvy won't be attracted to these vehicles. Now as far as the pressure on margins, well, the manufacturers run high inventories, we have four million finished vehicles, $100 billion of finished goods, even though everybody has been talking about this market plateauing, I first started talking about it in the beginning of 2015, the manufacturers really haven't moderated production. So inventories in the marketplace are high, and then they put out very aggressive incentive programs where every dealer, every store is given a price volume target that leads to all kinds of irrational multi-tier pricing behavior. That was difficult to contend with and the consequence of all that is there is pressure on front-end margin between high inventories and the types of programs that the manufacturers run. So my conclusion is, I accept that's the new vehicle market. I see opportunity where pre-owned, a much larger market, is going to grow in the future whereas there's going to be slight decline in the new. And since the pre-owned business is an arbitrage between what I – what and how I acquire and how I recondition, and my selling process means what kind of price I can get, I can manage that front-end gross to a very respectable number. That is within my control. So we will have headwinds in new, I will – our goal is to ultimately overcome those headwinds with pre-owned and be growing our customer care business with all our brand extensions at a very healthy rate. That's our new strategy.