Daniel McGahn
Analyst · Ardour Capital
Thanks, Dave. Back in April, we announced that we expect to achieve positive net cash flows on a quarterly basis by the end of fiscal year 2014. This target is expected to require annualized revenues in the range of $190 million to -- sorry, $180 million to $190 million with roughly an equal split between our Wind and Grid businesses.
First, let me focus on the Grid market. This business consists of our D-VAR product for utilities, industrial companies and the renewable industry and high temperature superconductor or HTS products for utility and marine applications. We estimate the addressable market for this business at $2 billion as rising power usage in urban centers increases the demand for grid reliability and resiliency.
In North America, we are conducting more than 4 gigawatts of renewables with our D-VAR product. Over the past few months, we've seen increased quoting activity in this region. In the U.S., this is most likely a result of the production tax credit extension. And in Canada, much of the interest is for the renewable application as well. But there is also a fair amount of interest from the utility and industrial markets.
In addition, we are also pursuing D-VAR business in South Africa, South America, Romania, Spain and the Middle East, all regions in which we believe there are large opportunities. We believe we can quickly show progress in the expansion of our regional reach, and we look forward to showing new markets opening for D-VAR.
Moving to our superconductor products. Today's utilities are facing challenges far beyond increased load from air conditioning in the summer and trees damaging overhead lines during winter storms. Utilities are now being faced with massive destruction from megastorms like Superstorm Sandy. The National Research Council, a private independent agency operating under a congressional charter, presented its report, which was sponsored by the Department of Homeland Security and identified our electricity grid as being inherently vulnerable to terrorist attack.
The Boston bombing provided a stark reminder that terrorism is a real threat and tragedy can happen close to home. We need to better protect ourselves against these threats. We need a more reliable grid.
We would like to give an update on our work with the Department of Homeland Security and Con Ed in New York on Project HYDRA. This project will result in the interconnection of 2 substations through AMSC's fault current limiting cable, which will create a more resilient and redundant grid.
Today, many cities take an islanded approach to their network, which means that each substation is responsible for powering its own section of the city.
And so if, for example, a substation is damaged as a result of extreme weather or an act of terrorism, an entire section of the city will be without power until the utility can get the substation up and running. This could be days, weeks or months, depending upon the damage.
For example, last year in Boston, equipment caught fire knocking out the power of residents and business for days. And only this past weekend, a cable in that same neighborhood malfunctioned, leaving residents and businesses without power again. The lack of power created dangerous conditions in the Massachusetts Turnpike tunnels, so the tunnels through the city had to be closed, and traffic had to be rerouted.
And only last month, consumers in Northern California were asked to conserve energy after grid equipment was compromised. AMSC's fault current limiting cable solutions provide an answer. By interconnecting substations, a nearby substation can share reserve power capacity until the damaged substation can get up and running. This drastically reduces the impact of an act of terror, extreme weather or equipment failure. While these extreme events highlight the vulnerabilities of our grid, this system is not only for extreme events. Under normal circumstances, the system allows utilities to better utilize their existing assets.
For example, rather than building a new substation, an incredibly expensive endeavor, utilities that are experiencing load growth can install a fault current limiting cable system to share load. And during times of high demand, like those hot summer days, utilities can share power between substations, so that its customers do not suffer from brownouts or blackouts. Con Ed recognizes these benefits. Project HYDRA will allow 2 adjacent substations in New York to seamlessly share the power supply, increasing reliability and efficiency and making better use of its existing assets. Construction is expected to begin in 2013, and the system is planned to be operational in 2014.
Our fault current limiting cable system is generating interest from other utilities as well. In fact, we've identified a dozen or so utilities in the United States alone that would benefit from this system now. And we are in discussions with a handful of these utilities that may have a specific near-term need.
Another HTS solution that will be a driver for future growth is our ship protection product called an advanced degaussing system for the U.S. Navy. Degaussing systems, which are traditionally made of heavy copper wire, are required on all Navy combatant ships. The systems reduce the ship's magnetic signature, making it much more difficult for a mine to detect and damage a ship. As mine technology improves, so much the Navy's protection system, which is why the Navy is now looking to deploy advanced degaussing systems on ship platforms.
Although effective, alternative advanced degaussing systems require much more copper, which adds significant weight and installation challenges for many ship platforms. AMSC's HTS advanced degaussing system addresses that problem by replacing the copper with a lightweight compact HTS cable that outperforms its conventional copper counterpart. Successful product design and development as well as the Navy's rigorous product qualification process have been completed.
With ship trials behind us, we are now working with the Navy to ensure successful, full-scale implementation on a surface combatant. Although initial production plans focus on one ship platform, we believe we can quickly increase our revenue by implementing our technology on additional platforms. Those discussions are already in process with the respective shipbuilders.
To be very clear, in both of these examples, we are not talking about selling only wire. For both the cable order and the degaussing deployment, we would supply a full system solution. This means higher revenues and more technology protection.
In summary, to achieve our revenue targets in the Grid segment, we need to do 3 things: one, continue to grow D-VAR sales in existing markets and implement those sales with further penetration into emerging markets; two, secure a large HTS cable system order; and three, deploy our ship protection system on a U.S. Navy combatant.
The second part of our growth strategy centers on our Wind business. Several trends are shaping the wind industry. First, the industry is moving toward more grid-friendly turbines with larger rotors and higher power ratings. Efficiency, power quality and grid reliability are paramount. As a result, AMSC, which specializes in technology for wind turbines from 2 megawatts and above, is a key partner in Asia.
In India, for example, we are helping Inox meet its country's demand for clean, emission-free energy. Inox is becoming increasingly successful in the Indian market. In 2012, they were ranked among the top 5 in installations in India, with over 250 megawatts installed during the year. In the fourth fiscal quarter, we began shipping wind turbine electrical control systems to Inox under our recently announced $30 million follow-on order. This is the fifth and largest order received from Inox since our relationship began 4 years ago.
According to Inox's public statements, they plan to double shipments by selling 500 megawatts of wind power this year, with 300 megawatts of orders already on their books. India's government is supporting the wind industry through low-interest loans and other incentives that we believe create a bright future for the market in the long term.
Positive momentum is also taking place in China, where 19 gigawatts of grid-connected capacity is expected in 2013. This is up 20% from 2012. China is a good example of a market that is transitioning to turbines that are more grid-friendly, efficient, reliable and powerful. And now, our partners in China have the competitive advantage of AMSC's advanced technology.
Another important trend shaping the wind industry is the growth of the offshore wind market. Larger, more powerful offshore turbines benefit from higher wind speeds than land-based systems. For the emerging offshore market, we now have 2 wind turbine designs in the water: a 3-megawatt and a newly erected 5.5 megawatt. Dongfang, one of our licensees in China, recently erected its first 5.5 offshore wind turbine.
In 2014, a 8.5 gigawatt offshore project is expected to get underway in Korea. Our partners, Hyundai Heavy Industries and Doosan Heavy Industries, are both expected to contribute to this project. We are also working to get other partners qualified for projects planned around the world.
In addition to expanding our existing business, we are focused on broadening into new territories with large addressable market opportunities and local content requirements, such as Eastern Europe, Turkey and Brazil.
To achieve our revenue targets in the Wind segment, our 3 objectives are as follows: component sales to Inox, our partner that has publicly stated its plans to double shipments this year; this revenue from India will need to be supplemented by sales to our licensees in the Chinese market; and finally, all of this can be augmented by new demand from existing licensees.
Fiscal 2012 was a transition year. We have made significant progress, growing revenues 14% year-over-year and significantly reducing our cash burn. Of note in the Grid segment, we grew revenues by 35%.
For fiscal year 2013, we are reiterating our belief that we will be able to generate annual revenue growth of at least 25%, and we expect to further reduce our cash burn. Longer term, we are focused on achieving positive net cash flows on a quarterly basis by the end of fiscal year 2014.
Our revenue targets are ambitious but attainable. As Dave already mentioned, for fiscal year 2013, we already have 75% of our revenue in backlog. We need to continue to drive the revenue growth in our D-VAR product line while ramping up our HTS business through a cable project and a Navy deployment, and we need our wind customers to deliver on their existing sales pipelines. It's that straightforward.
We recognize the challenges that lay ahead. Two years ago, literally overnight, our business changed dramatically for the worst. I'm proud to say that since then, we've demonstrated resiliency. And in the past year, we've resumed growth with a more diversified revenue stream and more streamlined cost structure. We've raised $35 million in capital. We become a leaner and more nimble organization. In the past year, we've grown revenues and significantly reduced our net loss and cash burn. And we're looking towards 2013 and 2014 with optimism.
Before we open the line to questions, we'd like to take a few moments to address some questions that we've received over the past few months. We've received a number of inquiries about our hearing with the Supreme People's Court in China, and some folks have asked why we didn't issue a press release following the hearing.
The hearing went as we expected. Both sides presented their case, and we expect to have a decision within the coming months. We didn't issue a press release because there is no new news, and we did not release press releases after any of the activities in China before this.
On the last call, we talked for the first time in a while about our relationship with the U.S. Navy, so I'd like to provide a little bit more detail.
Our relationship began 15 years ago. And over the past 7, we've been working with the Navy on degaussing systems. This is an engagement that's mostly flown under the radar or floated under the sonar.
In 2006, we successfully demonstrated the world's first full-scale HTS-based degaussing system. In 2008, the Navy installed an HTS degaussing system onboard the USS Higgins where it underwent sea trials over the next few years.
Our main objective when working with the Navy is being designed into a ship platform. We have completed all of the qualifications, identified ship platforms that we believe will require HTS-based advanced degaussing systems, and we are working with shipbuilders on the deployment. The Navy is continuing to support this effort through its Navy Manufacturing Technology Program. Once designed in, we believe we can quickly increase our revenues by implementing our technology to additional ship platforms. We are very optimistic that within the next 8 quarters, we'll get an order for a full system to be deployed. We view work with the Navy as a potential, persistent, annuity-like revenue stream.
With that, Jessica, please open the line for questions.