Earnings Labs

Assurant, Inc. (AIZ)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 10, 2016

$234.74

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+1.03%

1 Week

+3.32%

1 Month

+16.91%

vs S&P

+7.61%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to Assurant's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode. And the floor will be opened for your questions following management's prepared remarks. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Francesca Luthi, Executive Vice President, Chief Communications and Marketing Officer. You may begin.

Francesca Luthi - EVP, Chief Communication and Marketing Officer

Management

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. We look forward to discussing our fourth quarter and year end 2015 results with you today. Joining me for Assurant's conference call are Alan Colberg, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Chris Pagano, our Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. Yesterday afternoon, we issued a news release announcing our fourth quarter and year-end 2015 results. The release and corresponding financial supplement are available at assurant.com. Beginning in the second quarter of 2015, we revised the presentation of Assurant's results to reflect our focus on housing and lifestyle specialty offerings. As a reminder, results for Assurant Health runoff operations are included only in net income and are no longer reflected in net operating income. We will continue to report Assurant Employee Benefits under operating results until the sale of that business is closed. Today's call will contain other non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe are important in evaluating the company's performance. For more details on these measures, the most comparable GAAP measures and a reconciliation of the two, please refer to the news release and financial supplement posted at assurant.com. We'll begin our call this morning with brief remarks from Alan and Chris, before moving to Q&A. Some of the statements made today may be forward-looking and actual results may differ materially from those projected in these statements. Additional information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected can be found in yesterday's news release as well as in our SEC reports, including our 2014 and upcoming 2015 Form 10-K. Now, I'll turn the call over to Alan. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Francesca, and good morning, everyone. Our performance in the fourth quarter fell short of our expectations and is disappointing. Results were…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Thank you. Your first question comes from the line of John Nadel from Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, good morning, John. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Hi, John. John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker): Hey. Good morning, everybody. I have a couple of questions. I wanted to think about the expense ratio in Specialty Property and how we should think about that trending. I know you highlighted that the majority of the year-over-year increase in the expense ratio was driven by the insurance business, the lender-placed business. Some of that driven by the decline in revenue, but some of that as a result of an increase in legal cost. Can you give us some sense as we head into 2016, what you think a core or underlying expense ratio was for the year 2015 that we should be trending off of? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, John, let me start and offer a few perspectives and then Chris, maybe you can go a little deeper, if appropriate. The way we think about the quarter, first of all, for Property is pretty much as expected given the normalization in the lender-placed it's ongoing. We've talked about the progress we've been making transforming that platform and investing to really create the best platform and the best offering in the industry, and we see that progressing well and we still are confident that that insurance expense ratio longer term will be in the mid-40s as we've said previously. On the legal cost, these are related to the multi-state and outstanding litigation, ongoing matters, we continue to cooperate. And at the moment, we feel appropriately reserved…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi, Jimmy. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Good morning, Jimmy.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Hi. So, just on the placement rate in the Specialty Property business, it has been declining, but I think that the decline's been slower than what you would have assumed a few years ago, so what's your expectation for the area when it eventually settles and your best guess as to when it gets there, because it seems like now, we've seen a consistent decline, whereas in the past, it had been a little bit more stable? Then I have another one after that. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Yeah. I guess in general, I think perhaps it was slower versus several years ago. But really right now, if you look at the year-over-year that's really in line with our expectations. I think the guidance we've given is longer-term, a 1.8% to 2.1% placement rate. What we will do at Investor Day is provide you an update, in terms of our outlook on the path forward.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. And as that happens, I'd assume there would be negative expense leverage in the business. What's your ability to cut expenses to offset the impact, or have you cut expenses to the extent you were – you believe, you'll be able to? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: So, we are absolutely focused on operational efficiencies. We've talked in the past about Project Encore, which was a multi-year program designed to improve the customer service experience and expenses, primarily through technology enhancements. Last year, the run rate savings exceeded the net investment. We're going to continue to invest this year, and then full run rate savings will be achieved in 2017. So, the expectation is it will exit 2016 and move into 2017 with a much more – an appropriate infrastructure and expense base relative to it, keep pace with the decline in the revenue and lender-placed. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: And Jimmy, the other important point there is, it's not linear quarter-to-quarter. What we're really focused on is making sure we have an operating model that can continue to deliver great consumer and client experience but that ultimately delivers that insurance expense ratio in the mid-40s. And as Chris said, we do expect significant savings in 2016, which will help offset some of the normalization of lender-placed.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. And then in terms of the deployment of the money that comes out of the sale of the Employee Benefits business, assuming that the sale closes at the end of the first quarter, do you expect the dividend to show up (27:50) in the second quarter, and you'd use most of that for buying back stock, would it be in the second quarter and third quarters or could it be spread over the next year? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So let me start on that and then Chris can talk in a little more detail on benefits specifically. I mean our approach to capital management remains the same as it's been now for many years, which is we're committed to this disciplined return of capital to shareholders through the dividend and the buyback as well as appropriate investments in our ongoing businesses either through organic or through M&A. With that said, Chris, do you want to comment more specifically on (28:25) and the timing. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Sure. So maybe to talk in general about all of the anticipated proceeds this year, both benefits and health, I think so we anticipate the close in the first quarter of the benefits business, those proceeds will arrive at a legal entity, we will request a dividend in the second quarter. And then, some additional ongoing release of capital throughout the balance of the year. On the health side, the focus right now is to honor our obligations to the insurance pay claims, which on the 2015 policies, which will tail off as we move through 2016. We expect receipt of the risk adjuster and reinsurance recovery receivables in the second half and expect to have the lion's share of the $475 million of dividends occur then. So sort of a second quarter and then second half significant amount of proceeds available for deployment.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

And then just on the usage of those proceeds, I think you've mentioned M&A and buybacks, is that still the case? And on M&A, what's the pipeline like – obviously in the past, you haven't done deals that have been as large as what's the amount that can be freed up's going to be? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Yeah. There's no change in our approach to capital management. We look at deploying it through returning it to shareholders as well as investing in the future. We have an ongoing pipeline of M&A really in and around the businesses that we play in, and you've seen the kind of deals that we've announced that are really in the mobile business, in the multifamily housing, and the mortgage solutions. They're really trying to deepen and invest in our core growth areas. We have a decent pipeline of those, but equally we are committed to return of capital.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes from SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Please go ahead. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, good morning, Mark. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Hi, Mark.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Good morning. You've been nice and clear about the insurance expense ratio and Specialty Property going back to the mid-40s, similar numerical target for the Solutions business. I hear what you're saying that the growth in the fee makes that a little less useful, but it was elevated this quarter. How much lower should it get back to? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: So, I think our focus really when it comes to Solutions is the long-term NOI targets that we talked about, again growth in 2016 versus 2015, 10% average annual growth over the long-term in that business. In terms of Q4, we had some ramp-up costs in anticipation of future program launches and servicing existing program launches. There were some additional costs associated with sourcing and servicing some of the programs that we had in place. I think between the focus on operational efficiencies within Solutions and then some of the transformational work that we've got underway at the enterprise, we expect to create some greater operational efficiencies going forward to help us achieve that 10% NOI growth target.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

And then relative to the first half, you talk about growth focused on the second half, but you got some tough comps in the Solutions business. Are you going to be flat in the first half year-over-year, which would be a lot better than you did in Q4, or should we look for down in the first half? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: So, I don't think we want to talk about quarter-over-quarter or half-over-half, just as a reminder in the first half, we're going to have again the ongoing impact of the tablet program which we've talked about. There'll be some additional pressures around some of the traditional North American retail business, and the run-off credit business. And then in the second half as some of these programs we've described on the mobile side, start to ramp up and generate increased revenue, that's what we're going to see most of the majority of the NOI growth for the full year.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

On the Health business, I think you've touched on any of these points. But just so I've got it straight in my own mind, the incremental expense that you're looking at now relative to what you've discussed three months ago. Could you just run through those in the Health segment? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: So, a couple things and I'll talk a little bit about the concept of the PDR, and what's in the GAAP PDR versus the stat PDR. The GAAP PDR you can put direct expenses which we have in there. On the stat side, it's a bit more onerous, so we've already prefunded some future severance and some indirect expenses.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

I'm thinking about not the timing of payout, which you've already described. But any kind of new or incremental or additional payments or expenses that have developed over the last three months? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: No, I think we're on track. I think claims experience has been in line with our estimate, the expenses are also in line. I think right now, when I think about the $475 million of dividends. We've got some risk in our estimation around the reinsurance recoverable, and the risk adjuster. We do have some risk potentially in terms of how the 2015 claims emerge over – the majority of which will be over the first half of 2016. But again, better line of sight in every month that goes by where claims are in line with our expectations gives us a greater degree of comfort that we'll exit that business with some significant capital return to the holding company.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Right. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah and we mentioned this in the prepared remarks as well but the January claims experience on the 2015 policies, developed as we expected as well. So I think the good news is the last three months or four months, things in health have been performing as we have now expected.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

How much of the – in property, I think you had given the 570 basis points of impact from lower premiums, higher legal, how much of that was legal and is that going to drop off pretty quickly? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Well, I think on the legal side, at this point, there are ongoing matters as we mentioned. We can't quantify that, but based on what we know today, we feel appropriately reserved for the legal cost.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sean Dargan from Macquarie. Please go ahead. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey. Good morning, Sean. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Hi, Sean. Sean Dargan - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Good morning. Good morning. In property, so the loss ratio will trend to the mid-40s, is it safe to assume that your expectations for the normalized loss ratio – for the base loss ratio ex-cats will be higher than it was in 2015? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: So in terms of – well again, keep in mind, the rate – there's the absolute expenses versus the ratio. I think, in 2016, I don't want to predict, but the expense saves that are coming from some of the operational efficiency programs that are under way will achieve kind of full run-rate status by the end of 2016 into 2017, that will allow us to get to that longer term 45% insurance expense ratio. In terms of loss ratios, we're seeing better non-cat loss experience, which is – some of it is mild weather related, but some of it is actually related to fire and theft trending lower. So we feel a little bit better about that, but again, keep in mind the ratio is going to be a function of not just the numerator where it should be (36:12) absolute losses, but the decline in the denominator which is the normalization of lender-placed and the lower premiums going forward. Sean Dargan - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Okay. And if we do slip into a recession in 2016, there's the possibility that the placement rate will stop contracting, correct? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. I wouldn't want to speculate on that, but certainly we've seen in past housing cycles that if the housing market goes into a downturn, our business has benefited. Sean Dargan - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Okay. Great. And just a question about the tax rate in Solutions, where should we be modeling that? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: I think, longer term, we're looking at roughly in the low-30s would be a good number. Sean Dargan - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Okay. And that's because of the international mix of business? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: That's correct. Yes. Sean Dargan - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Okay. All right. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: The mix of business internationally, yes. Sean Dargan - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Thank you. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Kovac from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, good morning. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Hi, Michael. Good morning. Michael Kovac - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. So thinking about the strong fee based sources of income that have been growing in Specialty Property, can you give us a sense of what you're seeing as the organic growth rate in those businesses maybe more specifically by some of the lines that you're targeting growth in, and fair to assume that we're close to really organic growth rates in the fourth quarter or anything we should be backing up? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, first thing I would say, we're going to, at our Investor Day, provide more disclosure around the growth areas. So that would be multifamily housing, that would be the mortgage solutions business. In the multifamily housing business, there is market growth as people rent more, we're gaining share as well and I think we've said roughly a 20% growth in that business over time. And then, in mortgage solutions, when we purchased a couple of companies that we acquired back in 2013, 2014, they had about $250 million all-in of revenue, that's now up to $290 million in 2015, and so we had pretty good growth through share gain there as well. Michael Kovac - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thanks. That's helpful. And then, in terms of thinking about Solutions, I guess you'd outline some ongoing costs relative to sort of servicing ongoing programs I should say. Can you help us understand what those costs are related to, first?…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Schwartz from Raymond James & Associates. Please go ahead. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, good morning, Steven. Steven D. Schwartz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Thank you. Hey, good morning to you guys. First, a couple on Solutions. First on the expense side, I'm wondering here if we can look at this somewhat as you look at Specialty Property in terms of providing an expense ratio, either on insurance or the fee side. Your revenues are flat year-over-year, the expenses were up after the two items that you talked about, the launch costs and the prior period adjustment, by about $33 million despite revenues being flat, but, the fee income is up dramatically. So, what I'm assuming here, and Chris, you can tell me if I'm right, is that what we're really looking at here is mix shift on the expense line? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. Let me comment on that. Yeah. One of the challenges when you look at Solutions is you have very different businesses, and there is a major mix shift going on there. What we wanted to with the Investor Day is help all of our investors better understand the lines of business that we have. And so, just a couple things we plan to cover at the March 8, Investor Day, we'll talk about kind of long-term targets, and update those for both the company and then some of the key lines of businesses. We'll provide more disclosure around the key growth areas of the company, and what's really growing for the company are the fee income and capital light businesses like mobile, mortgage solutions, multifamily housing. And then, we'll talk about…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Hall from Wells Fargo. Please go head. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, good morning, John. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Hi, John.

John A. Hall - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. I have a question around capital management. I guess when you sort of accelerated repurchases and the like your leverage was fairly low, it's moving up a little bit. As you go forward, should we be considering and thinking about I guess debt retirement along the way as you balance the capital management program? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: So, the capital management decisions and the ongoing capital structure is all part of the decision making. As we deploy the capital either through in share repurchase, dividends or organic and growth through M&A, we'll keep an eye on the debt-to-capital ratio. As a reminder, we went public with a 25% debt-to-cap and been able to stay below that going forward. Any decision that we might make around changing the capital structure would probably be one that we would do in concert with the maturing 2018, $350 million five-year note that matures. But again, this – and then, there are scenarios depending on how earnings volatility emerges and we move more towards the fee-based structure. We may decide that there's a possibility of potentially increasing leverage, but not a focus right now. We've got plenty of deployable capital, no need to go out and borrow more.

John A. Hall - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Understood. And as far as the mortgage solutions business goes, you've done a good job of penetrating across the servicers and the originators so far. I guess what's holding you back on the other five and the other three in the top 10? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, we obviously, I won't comment on specific clients, but broadly, these are long sales cycles. You normally get in – get a trial. You need to prove you can deliver and over time, will grow and that's been what's happening. But we're in active discussions with many target clients that we'd like to have in our portfolio.

John A. Hall - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Nadel from Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, John. John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker): Thanks for taking the follow-up. I just wanted to think about the impact in Specialty Property, lender-placed declining, premiums declining, catastrophe reinsurance program, costs are across the line (47:07) lower, geography is roughly similar. I just wanted to think about what kind of catastrophe loss ratio you guys would consider roughly normal as we think out to 2016. Obviously, 2015 was a light year, so if we just model a normal year we'd expect something higher, I'm just curious how you think about what a normal year would look like in points? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: John, it's very difficult to put a number on, it's variable, I mean, the only thing I will say is that we haven't had a major catastrophe hit Florida in particular and we've been – the light cat years are not going to continue, I mean, the odds don't favor that. So it's something to keep in mind. We do spend a lot of money on catastrophe reinsurance for that very reason. The fact that we've not had claims in terms of our reinsurance tower won't change what we're going to do in terms of purchasing protection because we know that preserving the balance sheet and preserving earnings stream is very important to us going forward. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. The other important point, John, is as the business normalizes, our exposure risk has been coming down significantly. And as Chris said, we then build an adequate reinsurance tower to help mitigate the…

Operator

Operator

Your last question comes from the line of Mark Hughes from SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you. I think you've touched on this but the general point of with growth in fee income, does that tend to be more expense heavy upfront as a general matter and then you would assume that it will get more profitable over time? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I wouldn't think of it exactly that way. It does tend to be expense heavy that's the nature of that business. That's one of the reasons why you see the noise in those various ratios is that as we grow the fee income businesses, they have a higher component of fee expense relative to the income they generated, but I wouldn't assume that they start high expenses always and get better over time. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Yeah, I think the other thing to remember and I think this is one of the key components of our RF thesis (52:49) around mortgage solutions was fixed cost but gross (52:57) scale and through that achieve operational efficiencies, so there is a fixed variable element, which as we grow these businesses will create a better expense ratio going forward.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

You say you've got seven servicers of the top 10 servicers you have relationships with, what's your penetration among those seven? How much of their business do you have? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think it's fair to say in general, we have a small, but growing piece of their business with a lot of opportunity to consolidate a very fragmented set of relationships and markets.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

And then, the final question on M&A. Are you finding the competition or valuations a little more attractive these days or is it about the same? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: It's hard to generalize. what I would say is, we've been very consistent on our M&A approach, which is defined kind of smaller deals that naturally fit into what we're doing, and that's where we remain focused in our M&A.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: All right. Well, thank you everyone for participating in today's call. We look forward to hosting our Investor Day on March 8, when our executive team will provide an update on our long-term strategy to reposition the company for profitable growth. As always, you can reach out to Suzanne Shepherd and Jisoo Suh with any follow-up questions. Thanks, everyone.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.