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Assurant, Inc. (AIZ)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 28, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. Welcome to Assurant's Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode. And the floor will be open for your questions following management's prepared remarks. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Francesca Luthi, Executive Vice President, Chief Communication and Marketing Officer. You may begin.

Francesca Luthi - EVP, Chief Communication and Marketing Officer

Management

Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. We look forward to discussing our third quarter 2015 results with you today. Joining me for Assurant's conference call are Alan Colberg, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Pagano, our Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. Yesterday afternoon, we issued a news release announcing our third quarter results. The release and corresponding financial supplement are available at assurant.com. Beginning last quarter, we revised the presentation of Assurant's results to reflect our focus on housing and lifestyle specialty offerings. As a reminder, results for Assurant Health runoff operations are included only in net income and are no longer reflected in net operating income. We will continue to report Assurant Employee Benefits under operating results, until the sale of that business is closed, which we expect to occur by the end of the first quarter 2016. Today's call will contain other non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe are important in evaluating the company's performance. For more details on those measures, the most comparable GAAP measures and a reconciliation of the two, please refer to the news release and financial supplement posted at assurant.com. We'll begin our call this morning with brief remarks from Alan and Chris before moving to Q&A. Some of the statements made today may be forward-looking and actual results may differ materially from those projected in these statements. Additional information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected can be found in yesterday's news release as well as in our SEC reports, including our 2014 Form 10-K, first quarter and second quarter and upcoming third quarter Form 10-Q. Now, I'll turn the call over to Alan. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Francesca, and good morning, everyone. Our housing and lifestyle…

Operator

Operator

The floor is now opened for questions. And your first question comes from the line of Mike Kovac from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, good morning, Mike. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Good morning, Mike. Mike E. Kovac - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Good morning. Thanks for taking my question here. So lots of positive developments with the sale of Benefits and the updated deployment guidance and some strong operating results in the quarter. But once place that we've sort of seen a continued drag is the Health business. And I'm wondering if you could maybe discuss in a little more detail what made you make the changes in this quarter versus really just 90 days ago when you set up the PDR. What are you seeing? Is there sort of third-party data that maybe you got at this point that you didn't have at that? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. Appreciate the question. Maybe I'll start, and then Chris, I'll let you go into a little more detail. The challenges in the Health business are an industry challenge as much as an Assurant challenge, and you need to remember – we all need to remember, this is uncharted territory for the industry. These are polices that were originally priced and designed in the second quarter of 2014 to be sold this year and the market is still evolving and people are still evolving what's happening in the marketplace. I think the results and the variability we've seen kind of reaffirm our decision to exit, and we're very focused on now executing that wind down as best we can. But Chris what would you add…

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from Seth Weiss from Bank of America. Your line is now open. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi, Seth.

Seth M. Weiss - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Hey, good morning, Seth.

Seth M. Weiss - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

A quick one on Health, can you just update us on where stat capital is at the end of this quarter? I believe it was $340 million as of the midpoint of the year? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: So, we ended third quarter with around $200 million of statutory capital. Again, that is pre-infusion, the $200 million that we've talked about in the prepared remarks is a fourth quarter level. And again, we continue – this is our best estimate. Keep in mind the capital infusion is based upon the stat PDR calculation, which is a bit more onerous and thorough with respect to what can be included. So, again, best estimate to the extent that we need to infuse more down the road, we're going to continue to monitor claims activity and make the necessary adjustments.

Seth M. Weiss - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. And then just I guess on how the stat accounting works, is the theory that whatever stat charge you took should kind of make stat earnings run at a zero level for the next six quarters or should we expect to see a little bit more bleed-through on losses on the stat side? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: So, the losses that are captured in the stat PDR, stat measure PDR, are more comprehensive on the GAAP side. So, again the $400 million is our best estimate right now. There will be some variability. But again, all of these policies terminate at the end of the year and capital is driven primarily by premiums. So as the business – as we exit the business, the capital will be released. We expect to get the majority of it back towards the end of 2016 with again the caveat being that we're still monitoring the claims experience in the fourth quarter. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: And let me just clarify, Chris, I think you said $400 million, we put – we're planning to put $200 million additional capital into the fourth quarter, which brings us to a total stat capital of $400 million. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Absolutely. Sorry.

Seth M. Weiss - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Great. And if I could ask one on the Specialty Property, specifically thinking about the decline in placement rate, which is 30 basis points year-over-year. I understand this lost client portfolio of 600,000 loans from last year had a pretty substantial impact. Could you highlight or segregate out how much of the 30 basis points decline is attributable to that one client portfolio? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: I don't think we've provided that. I mean I think the way I think about it is this was a higher than normal renewal quarter for that particular client, which had a disproportionate contribution to decline in the placement rate quarter-over-quarter. But the one thing you really want to focus on is 1.8 to 2.1 long term, that's where we think this is going. And again, we are – in years past, we were early and inaccurate predictors of the normalization. We feel like it is well underway now and we're taking the steps to adjust the infrastructure and then reposition our offerings around some of the fee-based business that we've talked about with respect to mortgage solutions.

Seth M. Weiss - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thanks a lot. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Mark Hughes of SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Your line is now open.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Yeah. Thank you. Good morning. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, good morning, Mark. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Good morning.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Could you give us some sense on both sides of the business? You've described some very nice puts and takes. Could you give us a sense of where you think sales, the top line should trend in 2016? Just sort of very roughly, are we going to see positive growth in Solutions? Where would you expect the Property to shake out? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, we'll – at the fourth quarter earnings call in February, we'll give an outlook for 2016 that will more specifically address that question. What I would reiterate is something I said in the call remarks, which is that as we think about next year broadly absent cats or significant hurricane activity, we believe we can sustain results in our ongoing businesses really through the combination of growth and market share expansion in Property and Solutions, which offsets the ongoing lender-placed normalization and some of the other runoff operations we have around credit and service contracts.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Is that adjusting for the divestiture of the Benefits business? You sustain results in the Property and Solutions segments? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, in the ongoing businesses, yes. And we'll provide more specifics on how we think about 2016 on that February earnings call for the fourth quarter.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And then within Solutions, the shift away from traditional retailers to e-commerce, I think you have mentioned a point about absorbing larger declines from traditional retail. Where do we stand in that shift? How much more do you have to absorb? Obviously, you're offsetting that with new customers. How should we think about that? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. It's a long process that's been underway for a few years now and we think will continue to play out over the next couple of years. We've been very focused on broadening our distribution to be everywhere the consumer wants to go. And I think as you've seen from some of the announcements of our new partnerships, we feel like the Solutions team is making great progress in doing that, but more to come on the traditional retailers.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Sean Dargan with Macquarie. Your line is now open. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, good morning, Sean. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Good morning, Sean. Sean Dargan - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Good morning. Just as we look out to the fourth quarter, just wanted to get your initial thoughts on the South Carolina flooding and the hurricane that eventually came through Texas. Are these probably going to be reportable cat events for you? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Yeah, I think our best guess at this point is they'll be reportable cat events in the case of the flooding. Flood claims tend to take some time to – for experience to evolve. So, it takes a little bit longer for us to figure out the full estimate, but we do expect they will be – both be reportable cat events not certainly necessarily that material but they will affect results in the fourth quarter. Sean Dargan - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Okay. Thanks. And then can you just give us more color on how the fee businesses you're layering in, in Property are going to allow you to keep results probably consistent with 2015. I mean I guess it depends on where one has the placement rate going, but does that imply you're going to need to acquire more fee-based businesses over the next six months or so to be able to keep earnings level? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, Sean, let me just make sure I was clear on what I said about 2016, which is when we talk about being able to sustain results, that's for the Assurant…

Operator

Operator

And the last question comes from Steven Schwartz with Raymond James. Your line is now open. Steven D. Schwartz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Hey, good morning, everybody. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Steven D. Schwartz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Hey, good morning. I wanted to follow up on Mark Hughes' question about the Solutions and the brick and mortar versus Internet. Maybe we can delve into that a little bit more. I'm really wondering what is the mix shift going on. Is it a shift from some existing retailer that you already have onboard, going – more of their sales going to Internet, which make sense and you doing not as well on the Internet side as you had done on the bricks and mortar side or is this a case of, I don't know, business going to ipads.com or something like that, somebody that you have no relationship whatsoever? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So a lot of dynamics going on. Really, what's driving all of this is consumer behavior is changing and increasingly consumers are buying digitally, whether that's from a traditional retailer's digital site or whether that's from these new and emerging digital players. What we have been doing, I think, very effectively is Solutions team is building these relationships and partnerships with the digital providers. We've talked in the past about eBay, Google, we mentioned today and there's really a rotation going on from traditional retailers to these digital retailers and we feel well positioned, certainly something when we next have an Investor Day in March, which I'll talk about in a minute, we'll provide a lot more detail on how this business is evolving. Steven D. Schwartz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Okay. Just one more follow-up on that. Alan, do you – my assumption would be that you would tend to do worse on sales – Internet sales, placement if you want to call it that, because there is not a human offering of the product, is that a fair statement? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Not necessarily. It varies a lot by retailer and digital retailer. I wouldn't want to generalize like that. Steven D. Schwartz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Okay. All right. That's all I had. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from John Nadel, Piper Jaffray. Your line is now open. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, good morning, John. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Hey, John. John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker): Hi. It's a constant. Good morning. I guess I have a couple of questions. The first one, I wanted to think about the non-cat loss ratio or benefit ratio within Specialty Property. You guys talked about the idea that non-catastrophe weather and even non-weather related claims activity was pretty favorable this quarter, a 35% benefit ratio. I think it seems to be an unsustainable level. There is a lot of moving parts within the segment. I'm wondering if you can give us a better sense for, if activity was more normalized, about what level that 35% should be going forward? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Well, we think kind of the mid 30%s is sort of the longer term rate, keep in mind a couple of things. So, when you talk about non-cat loss ratio, there is mild weather that contributes to that, which of course is not something we can control, but then, we're seeing nationwide trends around fire, theft and vandalism that are positive. Just keep in mind, however, that longer term lower premium is going to be the bigger driver of that percentage. And so, it will drift higher as the normalization continues. John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker): Yeah. I guess I'm just trying to understand if this was a more normal quarter, whether weather is mild or not, or maybe let's forget about the quarter and think about it over the course of a year, should…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Seth Weiss from Bank of America. Your line is now open. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, Seth. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Hey, Seth.

Seth M. Weiss - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Hi. Thanks for letting me sneak one more in. And maybe just a follow-up on John's question on capital deployment and things forward-looking over the next couple of quarters. You'll get a lot of capital at the end of the first quarter but if we think about the next couple of quarters and potentially some limits on capital return, how would you think about that $250 million risk buffer that you set up or that you refer to, given that we'll get a good deal of capital in the first quarter and that there's now going to be a higher infusion of capital and Health, which should help manage at least some of the earnings volatility in the next couple of quarters? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Yeah. So I mean, I think really we're talking about a timing issue and again we kind of talked about this time horizon 12 months to 18 months through the first quarter of 2017 basically and holistically how you think about inflows and outflows. In terms of the fourth quarter, again, we've talked about the Health infusion of $200 million. We've got some earnings from the operating segments that are going to come up. We tend to backend load our operating segment dividends. We've done that many, many years and feel pretty good about what we see in the fourth quarter. It's been a fairly light cat season, although we will have some cat losses in the fourth quarter to address. But really when I think about it – I don't want to think about it one quarter versus the next, but just more broadly over a – again in this case 12 months to 18 months with good line of sight on some substantial capital inflows.

Seth M. Weiss - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Great. But fair to say that you intend to at least maintain that $250 million buffer next quarter? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Again, when I – I put on my CRO hat now a little bit early, but I think that was a byproduct of some work we did in the early phases of our enterprises management initiative. We continue to evaluate it, but at this point feel it's still the right number for us on a go-forward basis.

Seth M. Weiss - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Thanks a lot. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And your last question comes from Mark Hughes with SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Your line is now open. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, Mark.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Yeah. Hello. The recoverables in the Health business, I think you'd mentioned $370 million, was that right, the risk-corridor and the reinsurance recoverables? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: The... Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: ...risk adjuster and the reinsurance recoverable, Mark, so rough – it's $160 million or so risk adjuster for 2015 and about $210 million for the reinsurance recoverable. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: And we had no net risk corridor on our books.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Right. And so you – assuming everything works out, you get your $200 million stat capital back, the extra $200 billion putting in 4Q and then those other recoverable, those should show up roughly 3Q, that's all additional cash that's available for other purposes, is that right? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: So, well, there's cash and the return of capital. So, I think when you think about how much capital we're going to get back out of the business, it's bounded by the $400 million currently with any future adjustments to be made as claims emerge.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Right. But then you pull that essentially working capital out of the business as well in the form of these recoverables, is that right? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Those are offsets to claims we've already paid, so it will not – that's not money that'll come back up to the holding company.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Where does that cash sit once you recover it? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: These are against paid claims.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Yeah. Sits within the Health segment.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Right. Okay. And then the Health business, did you send out cancellation notices to consumers? Did that spark some additional flurry of utilization? And if so, what was the timing on that? Has that stabilized? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: So we did announce to our insurers that we were exiting the Health business. We're looking at the contributing factors, I mean again, it's – in terms of what cause the increasing claims activity, there's a seasonality element that always comes into play towards this, in the second half, but again back to the PDR, is our best estimate factoring in, the information we have available now and our best estimate of the loss experience and expenses going forward. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: The other thing I'd add just quickly is if you look at the industry data we have which has lagged, so it's not up to date, it lags a few months. The industry is experiencing higher elevated claims as well, so we can't completely parse apart everything in it, but it's an industry wide issue as well.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

And when would you have notified the insureds? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: We started all around early June after our announcement.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And then I may need to go back to accounting 101, but on the recoverables you've already paid the claims. You've got certain recoverable. Once you get paid, is that not cash in your pocket or am I thinking about that the wrong way? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Yeah, that's correct.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. So it is incremental cash that you'll receive, the $360 million, $370 million or so will be cash that you could then use for other purposes. It won't be earnings, but it will be cash that you'll receive? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Well, it's cash that's been paid out that we're then going to get money back on. We'll have paid that out over the course of the 2015 cohort claims experience.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Exactly. And then the cash will be coming back to you, so to speak, or you'll be refunded on that particular amount, so that cash will then be available for other purposes? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: That's correct. We have a recoverable on the books that will become cash.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Right. So you will be winding down that working capital, so to speak. Okay. All right. Thank you very much. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: All right. Well, thanks everyone for participating in today's call. We look forward to updating you on our progress when we report year-end results in February and at our Investor Day which we've now scheduled for March 8 in New York. As always, you can reach out to our Investor Relations team with any follow-up questions. Thanks, everyone.

Operator

Operator

This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.