Earnings Labs

Assurant, Inc. (AIZ)

Q1 2016 Earnings Call· Wed, Apr 27, 2016

$234.74

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to Assurant's First Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode and the floor will be opened for your questions following management's prepared remarks. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Francesca Luthi, Executive Vice President, Chief Communication and Marketing Officer. You may begin.

Francesca Luthi - EVP, Chief Communication and Marketing Officer

Management

Thanks, Keith, and good morning, everyone. We look forward to discussing our first quarter 2016 results with you today. Joining me for Assurant's conference call are Alan Colberg, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Chris Pagano, our Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. Yesterday after the market closed, we issued a news release announcing our first quarter 2016 results. The release and corresponding financial supplement are available at assurant.com. As noted in the release, beginning in the first quarter of 2016, we revised the presentation of Assurant's results to focus on housing and lifestyle. Net operating income will now reflect contributions from our ongoing business segments: Assurant Solutions, Assurant Specialty Property, and Corporate, as well as interest expense. Operating results will exclude Assurant Health runoff operations, the divested Employee Benefits business and the amortization of deferred gains from dispositions. Related prior period results in the financial supplement and in the news release have been revised to conform to the new presentation. We believe these changes provide a more meaningful presentation of our financials and better reflect our go-forward strategy. As we continue to work through our transformation, we expect to make additional enhancements to our reporting format. Today's call will contain other non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe are important in evaluating the company's performance. For more details on these measures, the most comparable GAAP measures and a reconciliation of the two, please refer to the news release and financial supplement available at assurant.com. We'll begin our call this morning with brief remarks from Alan and Chris, before moving to Q&A. Some of the statements made today may be forward-looking and actual results may differ materially from those projected in these statements. Additional information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected can be found…

Operator

Operator

The floor is now open for questions. Our first question comes from the line of Mike Kovac, with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Mike Kovac - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Great. Thanks for taking the question. At the Investor Day, Assurant outlined targets in both Specialty Property and Solutions, and you've given us some updates in terms of how you're tracking in Property, but we don't see the same sort of level of disclosure in Solutions. I'm wondering if you could provide us any incremental details in terms of the mobile margins; I know that the long-term target is 8% margins relative to 4% in 2015? And the same on the Vehicle combined ratio? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, good morning Mike and appreciate the question. As we go through this year, we are going to continue to evolve our disclosures and one of the challenges as we evolve disclosures in Solutions is just the complexity of the global business. And so that's why we're able to get Property out this quarter and be comfortable with it. We're still working on getting the Solutions numbers out that we can be comfortable and repeatable. But I think in – the short answer to your question, if we look at Connected Living, we had said last year we were at about a 4% margin for the year pre-tax; we're still trending in line with that and continue to expect over time we'll grow to that 8% margin that we've laid out in Investor Day. Mike Kovac - Goldman Sachs & Co.: That makes sense. And then Chris discussed some of the ramp-up of expenses in Solutions related to the new program launches, which we know were a drag in the fourth quarter. When I look at the expense ratio, obviously down sequentially and not really up all that much year-over-year. Can you give us a sense of how far through that ramp you are and sort of the scale of the expenses this quarter? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: So, the expenses, Mike, in Q1 are still up but lower than they were in Q4. We'll incur some additional expenses in Q2 and then, in the second half of the year we'll start to see the program generate profitable revenue. Again, this is kind of a normal course. I think the first – fourth quarter was a little bit of an anomaly in terms of the amount of the expenses, but we feel like we're back on track now to generate again NOI growth year-over-year and then the longer-term 10% average NOI growth in Solutions. Mike Kovac - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Great. Thanks for the answers. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Seth Weiss from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, good morning, Seth. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Hi, Seth.

Seth M. Weiss - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. If I could follow up on Mike's questions on Solutions and just trying to get some context around the top-line improvements in global Connected Living. If we look at the $660 million number in premiums and fees, it's running ahead of the quarterly pace of 2014 and 2015. So the top-line trend there seems to be positive, but just trying to get context around how we think about that for earnings because obviously your best quarter in terms of top-line was the last quarter in the fourth quarter, but that was a relatively poor earnings quarter? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Yeah. So a couple of comments. First of all, we – as we've talked about on previous calls, we feel very good about the momentum and progress in the mobile business. If you recall last year, we announced a variety of new clients and new programs and that's what starting to drive up the top-line and will continue to drive up the top-line. The challenge in the earnings is, we also have in there the rotation that's going on with the legacy retailers that are in runoff and that's a drag on the earnings, and then all the things that we talked about in the fourth quarter. But the momentum in the top-line I think augurs very well for why we believe this business will continue to scale and drive toward that 8% margin for Connected Living over time.

Seth M. Weiss - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Is that top-line indicative of how we should think about growth and earnings if we think about it longer-term? I know there's complexities on the accounting in terms of what's flowing through the top-line and what's flowing as rebates on the expense line? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: It is a complicated thing. I think the direction we've given is that margins are going to expand over time in Connected Living. It won't be exactly linear because as a program comes in or we have changes in what we're doing that will cause some variability in that growth, but it will expand over time and increasingly, attractive business for us as we go forward.

Seth M. Weiss - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. And if I could ask one quickly on Health, if my math's right, you have about $420 million left in recoverables from HHS, if we back out the payments that were made in the first quarter and what Chris commented on second quarter, so if we think about the $410 million that's left to upstream, how dependent is that on getting the full payment from HHS? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, I think – the way I think about those numbers, the estimates around the recoverables are going to be – when those receivables convert to cash, that's going to be the dividend that will be available at Health. So we expect to hear at the end of the second quarter from HHS on the final numbers relative to our estimate. And then as those dividends come in the second half we'll take them up. So it is – it is the – right now, the primary risk in terms of our – the capital plan, we feel very good about actual results at Health. So the actual claims experience from the 2015 policies is now that the range of outcomes is narrowing and it's – really and then remember the risk adjuster estimate is the one that's got a little bit more potential variability, because it's us relative to the market, as opposed to the reinsurance recoverable, which is effectively a quota share.

Seth M. Weiss - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Do we want to think about that as both upside or downside risk, or should we just really think about that as downside risk going into June? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, again we've taken in – this is our best estimate, I guess is the way to think about it, and feel – with again, the big risk being absolute claims experiences is getting – is more and more in the rearview mirror, which is a good thing from a risk perspective.

Seth M. Weiss - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan. Your line is open. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, good morning, Jimmy.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Hi. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Hi, Jimmy.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Hi, good morning. So the first question on – was just on margins in the Specialty Property business. Seems like margins this quarter were very strong. So to what extent do you think of that as a normal number versus maybe just benefiting from either benign weather or something else? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So I think, we're obviously pleased with the strong results in the first quarter, but we did have very favorable non-cat loss experience, which was the benign weather. We have ongoing lender-placed normalization that will continue. One of the positives in the quarter is the improvement in the margins in our fee-based businesses, which continue – particularly mortgage solutions continue to strengthen as we grow that business. But no, I think we had better than expected long-term non-cat loss in the first quarter.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. And then on share buybacks. I think you mentioned deployable capital at the holding company of $200 million. Should we think of that as the limitation on your ability to buy back stock in the second quarter? Or would you have more capital available as depending on the timing of when some of the Employee Benefits proceeds move up to holdco? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: So, I wouldn't consider it a limitation. Again we – and our strategy around buybacks didn't wait for the money to arrive at the holding company from the sale of the Benefits business. It is sitting in legal entities. We expect to request dividends in the second quarter from both Benefits and an ongoing dividend request from Health. We've also again – we took $55 million of dividends from – the combine from Specialty Property and Solutions. So, again the cash – the generation of cash and the line of sight around those cash flows is becoming clearer. Also keep in mind that in addition to the after-tax proceeds from the Benefits sale, we're going to have some capital release in the second half of 2016 in Benefits and then the $400 million-plus of capital coming out of Health once we receive the reinsurance and risk mitigation recoverables.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

And the cash proceeds from the sale would be moving up in the second quarter that – the capital release is a little bit later, right? The cash proceeds being about $650 million? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Yes. That's correct. So, the – again, couple of things. So, again, subject to regulatory approval, we're going to file our Q1 stat (25:54) returns and then make the request for the dividend. We are not anticipating a problem, but again, it is still subject to regulatory approval.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Nadel with Piper Jaffray. Your line is open. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, good morning John. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Hi, John. John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker): Hey, good morning, Alan. And good morning, Chris. A couple of quick questions. I'm curious, when you think about the $70 million operating loss you expect for Corporate in 2016. As we think further out, Alan, how much of that $70 million relates to residual costs from the Health and the Benefits business that you'd expect over time you can either take out of the organization or redeploy into growth areas? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Let me start with kind of what we said at Investor Day and then, Chris, you can comment more on this. What we said in Investor Day is we have taken aggressive and decisive action to offset the – the residual cost or the legacy cost and a good example of that was the hard pension freeze that went in place in March. We've also had a series of reductions, as we've been – begun to really integrate our key support functions, and all of that gives us confidence that over time, we'll be able to drive real expense efficiencies that will more than offset the residual expenses. But Chris, what would you add? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Yeah, just a couple comments on that. So in the $70 million is the expectation we're going to assume some of the residual costs from the Benefits business for the quarters two, three and four. Health remains an ongoing operation, we'll…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from line of Mark Hughes with SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Your line is open. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, good morning, Mark.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you, good... Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Hi, Mark.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Good morning. The mortgage solutions, of the 28% growth, how much of that was organic, roughly? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: All of it was organic at this point because we acquired those companies, Field Services [Field Asset Services] in particular in 2013 and the other two were in 2014. Now the one thing I would say is we had a relatively softer first quarter a year ago. So, that's part of the reason, but we still feel very good about the growth and momentum in those businesses.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

The Vehicle Protection also got very good growth there, how much would you say is industry growth that's helping you there or do you feel like you're taking share? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think both of the things you just said are correct. We've had a very good strategy of focusing on particularly the car manufacturers, the OEMs and you heard us announce a couple of those last year; we've won major new programs. So part of it is absolutely share gain, and part of it has been the market, but very strong growth in that business over the last couple years, something around – I don't know if we've disclosed it – around 15% year-on-year. That's in our new supplement, right? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: And then just another thing on the Vehicle business. Again, that is revenue growth that will begin to earn 18 months to 36 months out, when the manufacturer's warranty expires, so this is future profitability from growth that's going on now.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Right. When I think about your Solutions business, if I think of it on, say, a pre-tax basis, you're pretty much at the run rate you were last year. Your guidance is for the Solutions earnings to be up. I think you've talked about the potential for a ramp in the top line given the new programs you've got coming on line. Does your guidance look a little conservative or are there some additional expenses that might be offsetting some of that mobile ramp-up? How should I think about that? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, I think, just a couple of thoughts. The thing we're really focused on with that business broadly is the 10% average annual growth in net operating income over time. For this year, I think our outlook remains the same, which is the first quarter was in line with our expectations. We really expect that ramp-up in earnings to happen in the second half of the year, so that full year earnings will be up. But that's – with the visibility we have at the moment, that's where we're comfortable providing an outlook.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sean Dargan with Macquarie. Your line is open Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, Sean. Sean Dargan - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Good morning. Thanks for taking my call – my question, rather. I just have a question about thinking of the walk-through of Property results over the course of 2016. I know it's hard to model non-cat losses or the favorability of non-cat losses, but in addition to weather, is there anything that drove that in the first quarter? I think I heard something about vandalism – are people not trashing their homes when they default on their mortgages as much or – I'm just wondering if there's some sort of secular shift in distressed properties that's leading to a more favorable non-cat loss ratio? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: So, I think – again, there are two components. One is weather, non-cat, weather-related and this other issue, fire and vandalism. And we're seeing slight improvements in the fire and vandalism components, so potentially a sustainable reduction in the non-cat loss ratio. But it really is driven by mild weather. So, I don't want to – wouldn't want to read into that too much, I don't want to get into that business of predicting what mother nature is going to do out – for the rest of the year. So, but again, good results, a big driver of the positive outcome in the first quarter. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. The other thing I'd add is – I think we feel we've made significant progress kind of transforming the lender-placed business as it normalizes, both taking down our expenses, redoing our systems to…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Nadel from Piper Jaffray. Your line is open. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, John. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Hi, John. John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker): Hi. Thanks for the taking the second round here. I guess the only question I have remaining is thinking about the normalization of lender-placed in, if we thought about it in the sense of a baseball game, how far into that baseball game ROE. I mean – and I know the placement rate continues to come down very, very gradually, but what's also so interesting is that the tracked – the number of tracked mortgages is really holding very, very steady. I'm just – I'm especially interested in what's going on underneath the hood of the tracked mortgages, the ins and outs there? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, I'll start by caveating our ability to estimate the timing of lender-placed normalization because we've struggled with that over time. But I think it's fair to say that we are more done than not done at this point. If you think about that placement rate, which was 2.24% in the last quarter, we are now expecting and continue to expect that we end up somewhere in the 1.8% to 2.1%. So we're closer to that than we were at the high point which was almost 3%. In terms of the tracked loans we have, I think the industry-leading solution and a great track record and we've been able to sustain our position in the market over time. John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker): Has there been any – if we thought about…

Operator

Operator

This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.