Earnings Labs

Adient plc (ADNT)

Q2 2020 Earnings Call· Tue, May 5, 2020

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome and thank you for standing by. And at this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode until the question and answer session of the call. [Operator Instructions] Today’s conference is being recorded. Any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I would now like to turn over the meeting to Mark Oswald. Thank you. You may begin.

Mark Oswald

Analyst

Thank you, Andorra. Good morning and thank you for joining us as we review Adient’s results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2020. The press release and presentation slides for our call today have been posted to the Investor section of our website at adient.com. This morning, I am joined by Doug DelGrosso, Adient’s President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jeff Stafeil, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. On today’s call, Doug will provide an update of the business, followed by Jeff, who will review our Q2 financial results in more detail. After our prepared remarks, we will open the call to your questions. Before I turn the call over to Doug and Jeff, there are a few items I’d like to cover. First, today’s conference call will include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on the environment as we face today and therefore involve risks and uncertainties. I would caution you that our actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements. Please refer to Slide 2 of our presentation for our complete Safe Harbor statement. In addition to the financial results presented on a GAAP basis, we will be discussing non-GAAP information that we believe is useful in evaluating the Company’s operating performance. Reconciliations to these non-GAAP measures to the closest GAAP equivalent can be found in the Appendix of our full earnings release. This concludes my comments. I will turn the call over to Doug. Doug?

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

Thanks, Mark, and good morning, and thanks to our investors, prospective investors, analysts joining the call this morning and spending time with us as we review our second quarter results. I hope you and your families are staying safe and healthy in these difficult times. Turning to Slide 4, let me begin with few comments related to our recent developments. I’ll then focus the majority of my comments around the COVID-19 specifically, what we are doing today, steps we’ve taken and we’ll continue to take to mitigate the impact of the pandemic against operation and ability to restart our operations and finally Adient’s expectation for the industry as we move past from the crisis. On top of Slide 4, you can see Adient’s headlines, Financials, which when you exclude the impact of COVID-19, were solid and built on the momentum established in late 2019 and Q1 2020. These results further demonstrate the improvement phase of our turnaround plan what’s accelerating and ahead of schedule. Sales at $3.5 billion were down $700 million versus last year Q2 just over $500 million and the volume decrease was contributed to lost production associated with the pandemic. Adjusted EBITDA increases to $211 million, up $20 million year-on-year. Excluding the appropriate approximate $100 million impact from COVID-19, earnings were on pace to eclipse last year’s second quarter by $120 million. The similar outperformance the company achieved in the first quarter of this year. Also worth noting, our year-to-date free cash flow which essentially breakeven improved by over $200 million versus same time period a year ago, improved earnings, lower CapEx were primary drivers of the improvement. In the bottom box, we’ve highlighted at a high level the proactive actions Adient took to help protect the financial health of the company as the impact of the…

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst

Good morning everyone, and thanks, Doug, and I echo your earlier comments and hope everyone is safe and well. I’ll start on Slide 15. Adhering to our typical format, the page is formatted with the reported results in the left and our adjusted results in the right side. We will focus our commentary on the adjusted results which excludes the special items that we view as either one-time in nature or otherwise skew important trends and underlying performance. For the quarter, the biggest drivers of the difference between our reported and our adjusted results relate to restructuring cost and purchase accounting amortization. Details of these adjustments are in the Appendix of the presentation. Sales were $3.5 billion, down 17% year-over-year which included over $500 million of estimated negative impact due to COVID-19. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $211 million, and included about $100 million impact related to COVID-19 despite the headwind, EBITDA was up $20 million year-on-year and is more than explained by improved business performance across Americas, EMEA and Asia. Note that equity income was down for the quarter due to COVID-19 as we only had $10 million of equity income in the quarter versus $63 million a year ago. As the bulk of our equity income arises out of China, the impact is the virus have hit our equity income heavily in both February and March. Finally, adjusted net income and EPS were up significantly year-over-year at $58 million and $0.62 respectively. As you can see, the improved operating results and a lower effective tax rate between periods drove the year-over-year improvement. Speaking of taxes, Adient’s Q2 fiscal 2020 effective tax rate was based on an actual tax rate calculation versus an estimated annual effective tax rate calculation. The shift in methodology was necessary since the impact…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from John Murphy with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Aileen Smith

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. This is Aileen Smith on for John. Thanks for all the commentary. When looking at the $100 million improvement in monthly cash burn rate that you’ve been able to achieve through the period of production stoppage. How much is that you estimate is more structural and will translate into stronger free cash flow on the other side of this crisis versus what is more temporary and may not persist as cost gets added back with production?

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst

Yes, good question Aileen. I’ll start and Doug can jump in. The – a lot of these are really more in the category of stopping the bleeding during a no production environment. So, putting our plants on furloughs, taking the actions we have on reduced salaries, and compensation for employees and reduced capital spending associated with the no production environment. So, the point we talked about though is, we are taking the opportunity now to do more permanent actions that will improve our profitability as we move forward. But a lot of the actions we talked about getting from the $300 million or so to the $175 million or temporary equip measures to get an immediate benefit of immediate savings during a period of zero production.

Aileen Smith

Analyst

Great. That’s helpful. And very much understood that the recent $600 million debt raise was a move to bolstering near-term liquidity and withstands the current market pressure, but over the longer-term, can you remind us what you view as a sustainable or ideal capital structure, specifically, any targets longer-term around net leverage and debt pay downs?

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst

Yes, no, to the question. I mean, I mentioned in my remarks that we looked for cash somewhere between the $500 million and $600 million range, and obviously we have a lot more than that today. We also have $575 million coming from the transactions that we plan to completed – or we expect to complete, I should say, before the end of the fiscal year. And the back half of the year is always a time period where we get our dividend, is just, we would have never taken that additional liquidity, but for the COVID-19 crisis, the uncertainty it creates. But with the amount of fixed cost, we thought it was prudent to do it with the limited amounts of utility for the ABL during the production shutdown as I mentioned. It drew us to raise the notes. As we get to the other side of this, we will look to pay down debt and use that excess liquidity to get down to that $500 million to $600 million range. We have the ability obviously to pay our term loan B which is little under $800 million today. And we’ll look for other opportunistic measures too to reduce debt low as we get to the other side of it. From a overall debt structure, I would say, we’ve looked at something close to a two-times leverage ideally inside that a little bit as sort of our long-term goal on where to get our capital structure down to, obviously COVID has given us a setback. But we expect to come out back on that mission on the other side of this pandemic.

Aileen Smith

Analyst

Okay. And the last question, do you have any visibility around customer releases beyond the next month or two in Europe and North America, particularly anything to inform the production ramp in those regions other than the examples that in China over the past month or two?

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

Sure. So, with all of our customers both beyond just China, we get typically a 12 week broadcast at our JIT plants that are moving in the system. We’ve got very visibility and I think we commented in our formal remarks, we expect Europe to come online pretty quickly and get back to 100% production and that’s what’s reflected. And we’d say the only area that is still a little bit fluid right now is in the Americas and that’s just the coordination of the state governments are providing the OEs the opportunity to go back to work. And then, the fact that, there is heavy reliance on Mexico which has staying place - in place at this time. The releases are in our system and the only reason I am discounting a little bit is we anticipate that the shifts will occur over the next couple weeks until we get through that restart.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Rod Lache with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Rod Lache

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Good morning everybody.

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Morning.

Rod Lache

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

I had a couple of questions, just a follow-up, your consolidated EBITDA was $201 million and I was wondering if you might help us walk through some of the adjustments that we might want to think about to extrapolate to kind of an annualized rate of EBITDA. I think you mentioned that there was $20 million of unusual comp benefits that I suspect that you would – we might want to track. And there was also – it looks like $41 million of positive from commercial settlements on a year-over-year basis and last quarter you had talked about how some of that was normal and some of that was maybe non-recurring kind of true-up from prior periods. Could you just give us a little bit of a sense of what the runrate of EBITDA might be at this level of revenue?

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Yes, so good questions, Rob. On the $211 million of EBITDA that we posted for the quarter, we mentioned that there was roughly $100 million debt impact from COVID-19-related issues. Effectively, if you think it like a $120 million of total issues offset by $20 million that we took back in some of our incentive compensation. So the $100 million was a net number. So I think you can use the 311 million as a more normalized number. As it relates to your question on commercial, that’s a part of our business all the time, what we – we called it out in the fourth quarter, because that is a period where we have an unusual amount of end of year negotiation settlement with our customers. If I look at our overall commercial accrual on our balance sheet, it’s roughly the same. It has moved much during the quarter. So I’d say that’s more due to the business performance and doing the things that Doug has talked about and what we have talked about we weren’t doing as well before the turnaround of just being working with our customers from either VAVE opportunities to sticking to contracts or other elements of volume claims or other things. So I would say, it’s much more normal for us on what you are seeing in this quarter from a commercial settlement activity.

Rod Lache

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Okay. That’s helpful. But just to clarify, that $100 million COVID impact, there was also a corresponding revenue impact. So, if we were just to say, look, you are sort of at a $14 billion annualized runrate of revenue, would we annualize the EBITDA and maybe just make the adjustment for the consolidated part of the EBITDA which was $201 million and then, just make the adjustment for the comp adjustments and things like that?

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Yes, we’ll, so, I guess if your – it depends on – if you sound like you are trying to build another variable of bringing it down into a lower volume environment, the $120 million of impact, less the $20 million of SG&A was the $100 million we talked about. The – if you want to start thinking about that and what we look like in a reduced operating environment, I guess that I would tell you, for the quarter, we talked about $530 million estimated COVID impact from sales with and we said about two-thirds of the $100 million of impacts related tour consolidated business, about a third related to equity income. So the decremental margins were just under 13% on that level. So, perhaps you can use that to fill in whatever revenue level you want to use in arriving at an EBITDA estimate.

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Yes, the –the only thing I would maybe caution you a little bit on extrapolating that directly, particularly in the Americas we had a relatively like amount of launch activity in the first half of the year that increases significantly in the second half, particularly when we look at launches like the F-series, even though that’s delayed, that’s still going to roll into the second half. With that as an exception, you can see that we are making pretty good strides when it comes to just overall material margin performance be it commercial or cost that we are taking out, freight, launch ops waste, et cetera and thus the improvement we have in SG&A stands as well.

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

And maybe Rod, just to give you, maybe another hack at that question from a different direction. The important $201 million consolidated excluding equity income we said roughly two-thirds $67 million of net impact on the consolidated side due to COVID. That is already net of the $20 million. So we’d be closer to the 270-ish range and then you can make any kind of volume adjustment you want to that on – in case if you want to reduce into post-COVID reduced environment.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Brian Johnson with Barclays. Your line is open.

Brian Johnson

Analyst · Barclays. Your line is open.

Yes, just want to follow-up on some comments you made about potentially exiting unprofitable segments or product - customer relationships. You’ve talked about downsizing, over time, portions of the SS&M Tier-2 business to the shutdown to accelerate that in any way?

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst · Barclays. Your line is open.

Actually, the specific comments were directed more towards some actions we took in China, specifically, associated with some customers and they don’t want to be specific, we just felt long-term were in our best interest to have in our portfolio. They were primarily a result of the Futuris acquisition that we made. And as a result, we were able to consolidate some facilities. That being significant in terms of SS&M. We’ve been more finding ways to – find a path towards reducing cost and finding commercial settlements associated with that – on that business. And then, beyond that, there is a few customers that, I think we see that we want to deemphasize, but prefer not at this time to disclose that.

Brian Johnson

Analyst · Barclays. Your line is open.

Okay. And in terms of the cash, you mentioned, I think two just housekeeping questions. First, with the receivables coming down, does that mean that the ABL revolver needs to be paid down and that you will use some of the term loan proceeds to do that? And then, second question, especially with the big kind of largest product, one of the largest product lines in the world or country coming up for a great launch. You mentioned something about getting accelerated payments from OEMs. Is that’s something that you are going to be looking for or even have agreements in place as launch activity and production restarts?

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst · Barclays. Your line is open.

And maybe, I’ll take the first part of that one, yes, and then give Doug on the second. From an ABL standpoint, I guess, first it’s thinking about our cash balance at the end of the quarter was roughly $1.6 billion. So half of that represented the ABL draw and about half represented just our normal cash. It is true that we have to pay down the ABL. We mentioned $137 million required pay down in April. We said, we made another $350 million voluntary payment in April to reflect in our best guess of what that require a pay down is going to have be in May any way. So, you can think, we use the proceeds we have of the base $800 million or that $1.6 billion to make those repayments. We also have the proceeds of the note that came in April for $600 million. So, we have a significant amount of cash on hand today.

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst · Barclays. Your line is open.

Yes. And with regard to favorable book terms with our customers, a lot of that activity started initially before we have the successful fund offering. So that alleviated some of it. But we took every opportunity particularly when we have, what we say, a very positive relationship with our customer to go and say, if there is some way we can work this equation that helps us in the short-term, particularly as we were dealing with this working capital-related issue. I would say, most of the success we had though was actually in the area of tooling, where we were in the launch cycle with many of our customers. Sometimes, for really a specific kind of bureaucratic issues tooling can lag for many months, sometimes up to a year before we get compensation and we took it upon ourselves to go and really push our customers to true-up on tooling payments on those launch activities ahead of schedule and we were relatively successful there.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Emmanuel Rosner

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning everybody.

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Good morning, Emmanuel.

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Good morning, Emmanuel.

Emmanuel Rosner

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

I wanted to ask you a little bit more color around the actions you are taking as you are restarting, I think a lot of the things detailed on your Slide 11. So that customer restart blitz, you include a lot of very potentially positive actions, JV letters, the commercial items, the premiums in exiting some platforms. And I know you spoke about it a little bit. I am just curious how material is this, and does that enable you to essentially accelerate some commercial and cost actions that would have otherwise taken much, much longer. So I guess, can you – as you move into the rest of this year, can you essentially take care of all these items which otherwise would have needed - I don't know, platform redesigns or things like that should be taken care of?

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Yes, so, from a materiality standpoint, maybe we pointed to China and that China despite the 18% volume drop, we were able to maintain EBITDA kind of historic levels. Much of that activity is captured on Slide 11 and some of the preceding slides. So, we think it’s material. We are in early days in Europe and in the Americas whether we can capture the full value as we were able to capture in China is to be determined. But, it’s really fully not the same levers. And I am fairly confident that in a relatively short period of time, we can achieve that. What we are really hoping to achieve is that, whatever volume drop we experience in the near-term, that gets somewhat normalized once plants restart, that we can, at a minimum maintain the contribution associated with the business and then hack into the fixed cost side of our business. So we can maintain an overall level of profitability that we had going in – in a high level how I look at it.

Emmanuel Rosner

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Okay. That’s helpful and then, the follow-up, specifically on this, so, obviously, you are executing actions to be cash flow positive in the lower sales environments. You are also expecting that lower sales environment to eventually continue for 12 or 24 months. So, I guess, any timeline you can give us around that sort of cash flow positive benchmark, like you’ve got some things that as soon as industry production stabilizes at even in this low level, you would probably be there based on your current actions or the – be there much more to be taken beyond the – sort of the next quarter or so?

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

There is a lot of moving parts to that, Immanuel. I mean, we are aiming to have that, I would say sooner rather than later and have lot of actions sort of underway. But it also truly depends upon how the market restarts and it’s specifically, how long it takes to restart? And then, at what level of lower – we do think it’s going to be lower production. But how much lower and the estimates are bouncing around quite a bit on that in the mix of vehicles that sort of sit in there and what our customers launch plans turn out to be that they really slow it down. There is a lot of slowdown in our CapEx. So, we definitely need a few things to come into better visibility before we can give you a full roadmap. But I won’t say we are being pretty aggressive on actions and accelerating a lot of the things that we might have done a little bit later and doing them now. So, we do think we’ll – and we are prepared to be profitable at a significantly lower level of volume than we have today. We’ll get back to you as we get a little more definition on the future and give you a better view of what that timeline looks when we have that clarity.

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Yes, there is a one point I would emphasize on Jeff’s comments, what’s not clear and it’s a bit out of bar scope right now with our customers intend to do. And then, and if you go - if this plays anyway similar to what happened in 2009 and 2010, if there is a significant pullback in – of a new launch, new development activity which we are anticipating that there could very well be and say, look to cut their spending as well. And particularly on the engineering SG&A side, that dramatically impacts what we’ll do on our end and what happened in 2009 and 2010 as the customers cut back, they extended the production life of many vehicles and that’s eliminated things like capital investment for new launches. It eliminated launch activity and it eliminated kind of roll on, roll off, loss of revenue associated with that. And so, if you get that kind of stability, that allows us to go much deeper on the cost reduction side and we think that that will have a pretty dramatic impact on both our fixed and variable side of the equation soon. That’s – so it’s too early to see what’s really going to happen there. But you are starting to see the customers come out with a revised view of that launch cadence in that product line launch activity.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Armintas Sinkevicius with Morgan Stanley.

Armintas Sinkevicius

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Great. Good morning. Thank you for taking the question. I thought it was particularly encouraging to look at the ability to get the operations back up and running in China given how much manual labor is involved with seating and that bodes optimistically as we think about your ability to restart operations in Europe and North America. Maybe you can talk about some of the measures you’ve taken in China, when you think about six feet of distancing et cetera to really get that back up and running?

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

So, sure. But you have to break it down in our business by the components and the products that we produce. So, on a just in time level, this is our final seat assembly. That’s relatively easy to implement. So that’s going in with our industrial engineers respacing the line, in some case, extending the line a little bit to provide that spacing. A lot of it has to do with personal protection equipment, screening employees, you have to say, come in. So, I would point you to our website to not tie up the call too much with everything that we are doing. We feel it’s a very comprehensive list and so far as we’ve implemented that in China and then modified it accordingly in Europe and Americas, it’s gone relatively well. Where things are slightly different than in our cut and sell operations, we really had to re-layout those facilities more dramatically put, I’ll say protective barriers in between employees where we couldn’t provide the six feet of separation. And then, within our Metals and Mechanisms business, it’s a bit easier to accomplish in our full business. That’s for the most part fairly automated and spread out. So, not a big issue. But – and then, what we’ve implemented in our headquarters, we still have that majority of our employees operating from home. Today, we intend to continue that. We’d probably continue that even if government restrictions are changed just because we think it’s perhaps a safer way for our offices to operate as well.

Armintas Sinkevicius

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

And just to your point, it sounds like, the measures were not too hard to implement, but how much of it impacted your capacity or your output. Are you operating at sort of 90% levels of normal capacity given that you had to respace your employees or how is that impacting your production ability?

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Yes, quite frankly, it’s really not had an impact at all. So, and we measure that by what’s happened in China and actually it’s increased our labor efficiency. Some of that had to do with in the early stages, we were restricted in China with employee availability that wasn’t unique to us. That was with many of our customers, as well as suppliers. So that really forced us, I’ll say, health and safety aside to become more efficient. So that’s just the basic lean principles that we had to implement an emergency level. And that we felt that we were able to run more efficiently. Where – the only point I’d caution you, where it becomes a problem is not so much on the health and safety side. We feel pretty good about that. It’s more on how our customers operate and what they – on how they operate within their plant. So, if they lose efficiency in their automotive facilities and they wanted a slower line rate, that will force in efficiencies in our plants, because we will have demand for the line rate, but they won’t run at it. We would experience that in the past during launch activities. Usually, that translates into some sort of commercial discussion as opposed to us having to burden our operations with that. And we’d say that’s my bigger concern than the loss of productivity or capital spend that we’ve had to put in place at our operations to be – I’ll say, COVID-compliant.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our last question comes from Joe Spak with RBC. Your line is open.

Joe Spak

Analyst

Thank you very much. I just wanted to get back, I guess to the decremental margin kind of discussion which was I think pretty impressive in the quarter. But the mix of regions that is, I guess, impacted in the next quarter look significantly different. So, maybe can you just help us with that sequential bridge of what you are expecting or maybe even an indication of how the margins held up maybe in the last two weeks of this past quarter?

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst

Yes, good question, Joe. Good morning. I would say, our decrementals in Europe tend to be a little bit of worse than they are in other areas, because we have a lower ability to flex. We’ve been aided to flex in Europe, one, because, I think we went in as I said we were kind of aggressive on a lot of the moves, but there is certain limitations you could have from the various countries on how much you can take labor down. But governments have put in a number of short time work weeks programs then that have allowed us to take down our labor cost a bit. But I would say it has the probably the worst flexing. Now the good news for us at the moment, you saw a mix standpoint as Europe seems to be getting back to work quicker than the Americas. So, that will help in the area where we have the hardest time to flex, as well. Their sales are coming back and we have twenty some JIT facilities that have restarted in Europe and that is continuing through the month. So, knock on wood, that should be helpful here from a decremental standpoint for May versus April.

Joe Spak

Analyst

Okay. And then, just looking out like, Doug, some of the comments you made, it got me thinking, if I think about some of the issues over the past couple of years, I mean a good portion of it just was, I think complexity in sort of dealing with the launches. So, look, if we take a view that over the next couple of years, industry volume is impacted, I understand like the absolute level of EBITDA might be lower, but is there actually a version of that where the margin improvement trajectory is actually greater because of – you are better able to sort of manage the flow of volume and new launches that sort of goes through the system?

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

Yes, I don’t want to get too far ahead of this. If certainly there is a scenario of where that could be a true statement. I think right now, our focus is, let's get the restart going, let's make sure we create the environment that we can have our employees feel comfortable working in. Let’s make sure that we have the proper productivity in our plant. You know, as well as I do, the supply chain is gradual. So, we’ve got all hands on that to make sure that we can manage the unforeseens that will come our way. But, if you were to compare a scenario to, again, what happened in 2009 and 2010, I think, many suppliers benefited from kind of that reduced launch cadence that I talked about earlier. And as I look back, what was the biggest issue that we had to deal with as a company in 2017 and 2018, and to a lesser degree, 2019 and 2020 as we improve was managing the complexity of our launches and we've talked that that launch activity spiked in those prior years. It’s very difficult and challenging to manage the business. So – and we’ve also pointed to prior to COVID that as that launch activity came down, we anticipated better financial performance. So, I think that’s a scenario that it plays that way, it works to our advantage.

Mark Oswald

Analyst

Great. It looks like we are at the bottom of the hour. So, this concludes the call for this morning. If you have any follow-up calls, please do not hesitate to call. We’ll get back to you and again, thank you very much.

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

Thanks everyone.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today’s conference. Please disconnect at this time.