Jeff Stafeil
Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open
Thanks, Doug, and good morning, everyone. I will start my comments on Slide 9. And adhering to our typical format, the page is formatted with the reported results on the left and our adjusted results on the right hand side of the page. We will focus our commentary on the adjusted results, which exclude special items that we view as either one-time in nature or otherwise skew important trends and underlying performance. For the quarter, the biggest drivers of the difference between our reported and our adjusted results relate to an asset impairment related to the write-down associated with the expected sale of Adient's 30% stake in YFAI, a loss associated with the sale of our RECARO Automotive Seating business, purchase accounting adjustment, our amortization and to a lesser extend restructuring costs. Details of these adjustments are in the Appendix of the presentation. Sales were $3.9 billion, down 4% year-over-year excluding the impact of FX. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $297 million, up $121 million or 69% year-over-year and is more than explained by improved business performance across Americas, EMEA and Asia. Included in the results are roughly $30 million of commercial settlements from various customers that tend to be lumpy across quarters; and another, call it, $10 million in tax credit at various JVs in China. I will have more on these items as we walk through the segment results. Finally, adjusted net income and EPS were up significantly year-over-year at $90 million and $0.96, respectively. As you can see, the improved operating results were partially offset by higher tax rate in this year's first quarter versus a year-ago. As we've discussed, our tax expense is higher in the current year due to booking valuation allowances in several geographies in the second half of fiscal '19. Now let's break down our first quarter results in more detail. Starting with revenue on Slide 10. We reported consolidated sales of $3.9 billion, a decrease of $222 million compared to the same period a year-ago. Lower volume and mix across North America, Europe and Asia, impacted the year-over-year results by approximately $179 million. As a side note, in North America the impact of the GM labor strike impacted results by about $55 million. In addition, the negative impact of currency movements between the two periods, primarily in Europe impacted the quarter by $43 million. Worth noting the call out at the bottom of the slide, consolidated sales in China were up 6% year-on-year, well ahead of vehicle production in China, which was up approximately 1%. Unfortunately, for the line with internal expectations discussed with you in November, significant volume declines in Thailand, Japan and South Korea, more than offset China's performance in the APAC region. With regard to Adient’s unconsolidated seating and SS&M revenue, driven primarily through our strategic JV network in China, sales were up about 4% when adjusting for FX, again outpacing the 1% increase in China's vehicle production over the same period. Sales for unconsolidated interiors recognized through a 30% ownership stake in Yanfeng Automotive Interiors were down 3% when adjusted for FX. Important to note, about half of this business is conducted outside of China. Moving to Slide 11, we provided a bridge of adjusted EBITDA to show the performance of our segments between periods. The bucket labeled, Corporate, represents central costs that are not allocated back to the operations, such as executive office, communications, corporate finance, legal and marketing. Big picture, adjusted EBITDA was $297 million in the current quarter versus $176 million last year. The corresponding margin related to the $297 million of adjusted EBITDA was 7.5%, up approximately 330 basis points versus Q1 last year. Excluding equity income, as noted at the bottom of the slide, our margin increased 260 basis points year-over-year to 4.8%. Although the team made significant progress during the quarter, as demonstrated by the year-over-year improvement, these results do not reflect the desired level of profitability for the business. The team remains focused on executing the turnaround plan to drive Adient's margins to best-in-class.
lower SG&A costs to Americas: Sequentially with the fourth quarter of 2019, Adient's Q1 performance improved by $82 million, the fourth consecutive quarter of improvement and further evidence that operating environment in Americas and EMEA continues to improve. Finally, Americas and EMEA SS&M business progressed in a positive direction with plants manufacturing results improving just under $40 million versus last year's Q1 and approximately $14 million better compared with the fourth quarter of 2019. Similar to past quarters, we’ve included detailed bridges for our reportable segments, which consist of Americas, EMEA, and Asia on Slide 12, 13 and 14. Turning to Slide 12 in the Americas. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $94 million, up $51 million year-on-year. The corresponding margin of 5.1% was up 290 basis points versus last year. Business performance led the way improving $40 million year-over-year. The key drivers within this bucket included improved launch, ops waste and freight, which together totaled about $18 million and commercial, which also improved by $18 million year-over-year. A component of commercial would include various routine customer settlements, which tend to be lumpy in nature between quarters. During the quarter, we resolved the backlog of open issues with a variety of customers. These settlements are common, especially towards the end of the calendar year as our customers close out their own year. SG&A was another strong contributor in the quarter as Americas benefited from a reduction in net engineering, increased efficiencies and the deconsolidation of Adient aerospace, partially offsetting these benefits with the negative impact of lower volume and mix, which can be largely explained by the temporary impact of the GM strike. Now turning to Slide 13 and discussing EMEA's results. Overall, adjusted EBITDA increased to $49 million with a corresponding margin of 3.1%, up $47 million, while margin improved 300 basis points respectively year-over-year. Again good progress, but significantly below optimal levels. Like Americas, substantial improvements in launch, ops waste and freight combined with positive commercial actions drove a $44 million improvement in business performance. The EMEA team also worked hard to reduce SG&A costs, which improved $12 million compared with Q1 of last year. Lower volume and mix partially offset these benefits. Finally turning to Slide 14, and our Asia segment performance. For the quarter, adjusted EBITDA was $177 million or $23 million higher than compared with Q1 2019. Equity income increased $26 million, driven by an approximate $10 million benefit associated with tax credit at various JVs and $5 million of commercial settlements. In addition, improved operational performance both at the seating JVs and YFAI contributed to the increase in equity income. Important to remember, equity income is historically strongest in Q1, our fiscal Q1, mirroring the seasonality of China's vehicle production pattern. We continue to expect a significant reduction heading into fiscal Q2, primarily driven by lower vehicle production surrounding the Chinese New Year holidays as well as the developing impact of the coronavirus. More on our outlook in just a minute. In addition to equity income, business performance increased by about $9 million year-over-year, driven primarily by improved material margin. Lower volume and mix combined with higher engineering costs associated with the current launch schedules were partial offsets. Now let me shift to our cash and capital structure on Slide 15. On the left hand side of the page, we break down our cash flow. Adjusted free cash flow defined as operating cash flow less CapEx was a $148 million for the quarter. The $121 million improvement in adjusted EBITDA, improved trade working capital and a $53 million reduction in capital spending between the two periods explain the vast majority of the increase in free cash flow versus last year. Trade working capital, as mentioned on several of our past calls and noted on slide tends to be quite volatile throughout each quarter. However, over the course of the year, the impact generally tends to balance out. Also note that our AR factor in Europe was approximately $50 million higher at December 31 than at September 30. For capital spending, the year-over-year decline is partially related to the timing of our customers launch plans as well as an increased scrutiny over spending. The teams are working closely to identify opportunities to reuse capital were appropriate. As a result, we’re expecting to spend less in capital -- CapEx this year versus prior expectations. More on that in a minute. As you can see on the footnote, we continue to break out CapEx by segments. On the right hand side of the page, we detailed our cash and debt position. At December 31, 2019, we ended the quarter with $965 million of cash and cash equivalents. Gross debt and net debt totaled $3,754 million and $2,789 million respectively on December 31. It's worth mentioning there are no near-term maturities. Thanks to the refinancing completed last May. And speaking of the refinancing, at that time, we intentionally increased the company's liquidity to ensure the team had appropriate funding to execute the turnaround plan. With our turnaround plan firmly rooted and gain momentum, and as evidenced by the several quarters of improving operating and financial results, we're confident, we can continue to execute the plan with a lower level of liquidity. As we move through the next couple of quarters, we'd expect to pay down between $100 million to $200 million of debt using the excess liquidity residing on our balance sheet. Now moving to Slide 16 and just a few comments on the strategic transactions that we’ve recently announced and how those actions offer additional opportunity to strengthen Adient's balance sheet. First, the divestiture of RECARO Automotive Seating. As you know, RECARO serve the niche market, providing low volume in specialty seating. The business was essentially breakeven. Realizing we would be -- we need to make significant investment in next-generation product and incur restructuring costs to improve its profitability, we elected to divest the business, which is very consistent with our commitment to our core business and focus on capital allocation. The strategic actions with Yanfeng announced earlier this morning, major components of the agreements include: the sale of Adient's 30% ownership stake in YFAI to Yanfeng. Although the partnership we have with Yanfeng is highly valuable and strategic, the interiors business is not core to Adient's. We’ve said in the past that we would be open to monetize in the investments if the opportunity arose, and we have now found such an opportunity. The sale price was $379 million, and if you recall, we were expecting equity income from the -- from YFAI to total approximately $45 million for fiscal 2020, of which $17 million was included in our Q1 results. By the way, we expect a little to no tax leakage on this transaction. We also agreed to make amendments to the AYM joint venture agreement. As a reminder, AYM is a 50 joint venture with Yanfeng that was formed in late 2013 to produce mechanisms, such as recliners, tracks, height adjusters and locks. The amendment to the JV agreement include the sale of mechanism patents and other intellectual property to AYM for $20 million. AYM will license such IP back to Adient on a royalty-free basis and a change in AYM's business scope to allow AYM to carry out its mechanisms business both inside and outside of China. This change in business scope is significant as Adient intends to further leverage AYM's expertise going forward. Sourcing a larger portion of Adient's metals to this high quality, low-cost business should allow us to accelerate the rightsizing of our metals business. And finally, Adient and Yanfeng agreed to extend the JV agreement with YFAS to December 31, 2038. This extension demonstrates a strong commitment to the partnership in the region. In summary, these actions strengthen our valuable relationship with Yanfeng, demonstrates our continued commitment to the core seating business and disciplined approach to our capital allocation, especially as we pivot to become less capital-intensive with the rightsizing of our metals business. As noted on the slide, we expected to -- expect to use the approximate $400 million in proceeds to delever the balance sheet. This amount is incremental to the $100 million to $200 million of debt pay down discussed on the previous slide. Now turning to Slide 17, I will continue with a few comments on what to expect as we progress through the remainder of 2020. I know many of you may be tempted to take our Q1 results and multiply by four to get a revised full-year estimate. I wish it were that easy, but unfortunately there are several or certain macro factors and Adient's specific headwinds that prevent us -- are preventing that from being the case. Let's breakdown the specifics. Starting with revenue, we expect the full-year to settle between $15.6 billion and $15.8 billion. Although the range is not changed from our previous estimate, certain of the components have shifted mainly related to the divestiture of RECARO for the balance of the year, but it's largely offset by an increase in production expected at GM as they work to make up lost volumes associated with the labor strike. Also important to note, as previously communicated, second half 2020 revenue is expected to be $400 million to $500 million lower compared with the first half driven by lower industry volumes and the impact of several product launches, including the Ford F-150, Ram, various Nissan programs in North America, Volkswagen's ID.4, various Daimler programs and the PSA Citroen C4 Picasso in Europe. For adjusted EBITDA, the solid start of the year combined with further benefits expected from a turnaround plan, underpin the upward revision to between $870 million to $910 million versus our previous expectations of between $820 million to $860 million. The new adjusted EBITDA range reflects a $30 million decrease to equity income resulting from the announced sale of YFAI as we do not plan to report equity income for YFAI on a go-forward basis. Thus, the midpoint of our guide is approximately $80 million higher than the previous guide on an apples-to-apples basis. Important to point out, the planned decline in revenue in the second half of 2020 both on the consolidated and unconsolidated JVs, it's expected to partially offset continued operational improvements in both America and EMEA. Further impacting our balance of year earnings is our launch load in the second half of the year, which is biased towards programs that carry relatively high decremental margins. Speaking of equity income, we now expect equity income will range between $235 million to $245 million factoring in our Q1 results and announced sale of YFAI. As a reminder, we continue to expect equity income will mirror seasonality patterns of China's vehicle production, strongest in Q1 followed by a substantial decline in Adient's fiscal second quarter, which tends to be impacted by lower production surrounding the Chinese New Year holiday. In fact, we're expecting an approximate $70 million reduction in equity income in our second quarter compared with the quarter just completed. A forecasted $500 million reduction in sales in China in Q2 versus Q1 is the primary driver. In addition, we will not record YFAI income -- equity income, as I previously mentioned. One more point on China. The macro environment is very uncertain at this time given the coronavirus. The impact of the virus on the economy is currently unclear and our guidance therefore does not include any prolonged or a significant impact. However, we continue to monitor the situation closely and we will update our planning assumptions as appropriate as we better understand its impact to the industry and Adient. Moving on, interest expense has been revised lower to approximately $190 million. This estimate does not take into consideration the accelerated debt pay down discussed earlier. As a large majority of the pay down will be dependent on the closing of the YFAI transactions, which we expect will take place before the end of our 2020 fiscal year. Cash taxes in fiscal '20 are still expected to range between $100 million to $110 million similar to last year's level. Important to remember, net operating loss carryforwards can offset income as profits increase, so cash taxes on Adient's operations should remain low even as profits are increasing. With regard to Adient's effective tax rate and for modeling purposes a rate in the high 30% range is still appropriate. We would expect that rate to fluctuate on a quarterly basis due to the valuation allowances in our geographic mix of income. Based on our first quarter performance and given our intense focus on cash flow, we now expect capital expenditures to settle in the $440 million to $460 million range. And finally, one last item for your modeling. We expect our improved operating profit and reduced capital expenditures will result in positive free cash flow for the year. With that, let's move on to the question-and-answer portion of the call.