Stephen Belgrad
Analyst · Citi. Your line is open
Great, thanks Peter and good morning everyone. The fourth quarter of 2016 was a positive one for OMAM and our clients. As near-term investment performance improved U.S. markets recovered and [Indiscernible] was positive led by a strong December. We are also able to execute on the capital management buyback program we discussed in the third quarter, and saw the beginnings of Landmark’s positive contribution to earnings and flows. While the financial impact of these positive events had only a minor effect on our fourth-quarter results, given that several were backend loaded in December, this should position the company for a strong 2017 assuming markets retain a normal trajectory. We expect Landmark to continue to be a strong contributor of earnings growth in 2017, particularly in the second half of the year, if their AUM increases as we anticipate. And our year-end AUM of $240.4 billion relative to our fourth-quarter average AUM of $235 billion means that we go into the year with over $5 billion of additional assets in our run rate revenue relative to the fourth quarter. Likewise, our December buyback of 6 million shares should increase EPS by about 5% in 2017. So we are cautiously optimistic about the year ahead. I’ll give additional thoughts on 2017 at the end of this presentation. Comparing Q4, 2016 to Q4, 2015 economic net income was up 6.6% quarter-over-quarter to $38.9 billion or $0.33 per share, driven by a strong market in the second half of the year and the inclusion of Landmark for the full fourth quarter of 2016. Total revenue increased $22.9 million or 13.7% as higher growth in management fees were partially offset by reduced performance fees, which fell $1.8 million. Management fee revenue increased by 15 5% as average assets were up approximately 10% and the yield on average assets excluding equity accounted affiliates rose by approximately two basis points. The addition of Landmark contributed almost half of this growth in average assets and all of the increase in basis points yield, which equalled 35.6 basis points in the fourth quarter excluding equity accounted affiliates. While combined operating expenses and variable comp rose 14.6% year-over-year driven predominantly by Landmark, we saw scale on operating expenses as a ratio of operating expenses to management fees decreased from the prior year period. The slightly higher growth in expenses relative to total revenues cost ENI operating margin to decline slightly from 36.2% in Q4 of 2015 to 35.8% in Q4 2016. Driven by the Landmark transaction, our adjusted EBITDA increased 12% to $57.5 million for the fourth quarter of 2016 compared to 2015. Landmark transaction also benefited our effective tax rate as the tax benefit of intangible amortization and higher intercompany interest resulted in a tax rate of approximately 23% in the fourth quarter. Slide 13 gives a better perspective of our financial trends over the last five quarters. As average assets hit a low in the first quarter, and then increased due to market movement and the impact of Landmark. For each period we show the core earnings power of the business by breaking out the impact of performance fees. While this didn’t have much impact in 2016 given the performance fees were only $2.6 million in total. Overall comparing Q4, 2015 to Q4 2016 before performance fees we see that margin was approximately flat between these quarters, while core EPS was up $0.04 or 14% from $0.28 to $0.32. With respect to performance fees, as we move into 2017, our hope is that recent improved performance would generate a pickup from the disappointing levels of performance fees this year, perhaps closer to the levels experienced in 2015, but it’s clearly too soon to predict with any accuracy. In terms of our $8 million to $9 million negative performance fee, wielded [ph] in some of the U.S. sub advisory products, these fee calculations have a three-year measurement period. While we did make up significant grounds in 2016, it’s unlikely to make a material difference over the next 12 months. Side 14 lays out the same metrics over the period 2012 to 2016 and gives a longer-term perspective of the meaningful growth generated by this franchise. We begin isolating the impact of performance fees. In 2012 to 2016 CAGR is loaded above the relevant metrics, and we've also indicated the change between 2015 and 2016 on a full year basis. During the five-year period, average assets and ENI revenue increased 11% annually on average, while pre tax ENI had a 10% CAGR. Comparing full year 2015 to 2016, average assets were generally flat due to market volatility but the weighted average fee rate on AUM was up more than one basis point from 34.3 basis points to 35.4 basis points, as flows came at a higher fee asset categories and the acquisition of Landmark grown on higher fee alternative assets. As a result, revenue was up 2% including performance fees and 4% excluding them. Gross performance fees were $13.7 million in 2015 and $2.6 million in 2016, a decline of 81%. Pre-tax ENI declined by 6% overall including the impact of reduced performance fees and 4% excluding performance fees. Margin was down about 1% to 35.5% on a total basis and down 85 basis points to 35.5% excluding performance fees. While total ENI EPS declined approximate 2.4% from $1.24 in 2015 to $1.21 in 2016. Excluding the impact of performance fees, core ENI per share was flat both years at $1.20. All annual data discussed in this presentation excludes the impact of our non-recurring performance fee in 2015 in the second quarter, which added $11.4 million net of taxes to our income. Slide 15 provides insight into the drivers impacted management fees and revenue from Q4 2015 to Q4 2016. The overall trend during this period was a shift towards higher fee assets both on an organic basis as well as a result of Landmark. In the left box, you can see average assets for Q4 2015 and 2016 split out by our four key asset classes. The box on the right provides the gross management fee revenue generated by these average assets and basis points of fees also broken up by asset class. On an overall basis, average assets were up 9.6% period over period and gross management fees including equity accounted affiliates were up 13.7% quarter-over-quarter. As you recall, our different asset classes have very different fee rates. Global non-U.S. equity and alternatives have average management fee rates of 41 and 50 basis points respectively, while U.S. equities and fixed income have average management fee rates of 25 and 20 basis points respectively. The increase in the alternatives fee rate from 44 basis points to 50 basis points is attributable Landmark. During this period, the combined share of higher fee global non-U.S. equity and alternative assets went up by 3% to 60% of average assets while the share of U.S. equity decreased approximately 2% to 34% of average assets. Gobal non-U.S. and alternatives represent 73% of our gross management fee revenue as gross revenue and alternatives increased 43% year-over-year primarily as a result of the Landmark transaction. The average assets in gross fees on these bar charts represent all assets managed by our affiliates including the equity accounted affiliates, Heitman and ICM. To tie back to ENI revenue, you need to subtract the average assets and management fees associated with the equity accounted affiliates, which we’ve done below each bar. Slide 16 provides perspective regarding ENI operating expenses for the three months and years ended December 31, 2016 and 2015, and breaks out several of our key expense items. Our operating expenses tend to have the seasonal component with the fourth quarter typically the highest quarter due to payroll taxes accrued on year-end bonuses. On a full year basis, our ratio of operating expenses to management fees, the operating expense ratio was 40.2% in 2016 due to the low-end of our guidance of 40% to 42%. The increase in our total operating expense ratio from 38.5% in 2015 reflects a decision to continue investing in our business during the first half of 2016 despite the vulnerable equity markets which occurred during that period. Given the recovery of the markets in the second half of the year, we think this was the right decision. While total ENI operating expenses grew by approximately 14% between Q4 2015 and Q4 2016 for a total of $73.3 million for the quarter, on a like-for-like basis excluding Landmark, these expenses increased quite modestly by approximately 2% while management fees grew by about 4%. Lower sales based compensation was offset by hiring at several of our affiliates, in some cases relating to new growth initiatives and investment in the business. Technology spending and an affiliate office move drove the increase in DNA from $1.9 million Q4 2015 to $2.5 million in Q4 2016. At the holding company, including Global Distribution, expenses were effectively flat during this period. On an aggregate basis for the quarter, you can see that the ratio of operating expenses to management fees was down slightly as the Landmark transaction generated scale. This ratio fell from 41% in Q4 2015 to 40.4% in Q4 2016. I’ll give further perspective on our 2017 expense expectations at the end of the presentation. The next key driver of profitability is variable compensation, shown in more detail in Slide 17. The table at the bottom of the slide divides total variable comp into its two components, cash variable comp and equity amortization. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the results were impacted by Landmark as total variable compensation increased 16% from $42 million in Q4 2015 to $48.6 million in Q4 2016. Excluding Landmark, variable comp would be up closer to 6% over this period reflecting significant profit growth at certain affiliates during the year. Over this period, the variable compensation ratio moved from 41% in Q4 2015 to 41.7% in Q4 2016. The inclusion of Landmark causes ratio to go down over time as greater scale was achieved with respect to holding company compensation. For full year 2016, the variable compensation ratio of 41.8% was consistent with guidance in the range of 41% to 42% as total variable comp declined 1% in line with earnings before variable comps. Affiliate key employee distributions for the three months and years ended December 31, 2016 and 2015 are shown on Slide 18. Distributions represent the share of affiliate profits owned by the affiliate key employees. Between Q4 2015 and Q4 2016, employee distributions increased by 18% to $12.9 million. As with other metrics, this one is also highly impacted by Landmark. Excluding the acquisition, this metric would actually have decreased. While Landmark impact is particularly meaningful since Landmark employees currently own 40% of their business relative to 15% to 35% ownership for our other consolidated affiliates, in some cases after a preference to OMAM. For this reason between Q4, 2015 and Q4 2016, the distribution ratio increased from 18% to 19%. On a full year basis, distributions increased 7% to $41.7 million, again driven by Landmark and their higher level of employee ownership. The 2016 distribution ratio of 17.3% was in line with our full year expectation of 17% to 18%. Turning now to the balance sheet, and capital on slide 19, you can see the impact of the several transactions completed during the year; in particular, the investment on Landmark Partners, and the issuance of $400 million of long-term debt, the repurchase of approximately 98 million of shares including 85.5 million from our Parent in December and the impact of the Seed Capital purchase and termination of the DTAD both involved in our Parent and announced in June. We boxed the most relevant line items namely investments, other assets due to related parties and third-party borrowings. Determination of the DTAD as of December 31, 2016 resulted in a gain of approximately $20 million book directly to equity and we will make DTA related payments to the Parent totaling approximately $143 million between June 30, 2017 and June 30, 2018. With approximately $400 million long-term debt, our debt to EBITDA ratio for the last 12 months is 1.9 times as of December 31, including landmark on a full year pro forma basis it would put this ratio closer to 1.8 times which is generally in line with the lower end of our target, debt to EBITDA level of 1.75 time to 2.25 times. With the return of approximately $50 million in cash to the holding company in early January related to a co-investment and nothing drawn on our $350 million revolving credit facility, our balance sheet retains financial flexibility to meet our financial obligations while executing on our growth strategy and allocating capital to enhance shareholder value including further sharing purchases from the Parent. On March 31, we’ll pay our quarterly dividend of $0.80 per share to shareholders of record on March 17. This dividend rate reflects our standard 25% payout ratio. Looking ahead to 2017 I wanted to give you a perspective on some of OMAM’S key metrics and how we expect them to trend throughout the year. These estimates assume a stable market environment and the continued ship in AUM toward higher fee strategies particularly secondary alternatives. While we tend to have higher seasonal expenses in the first and fourth quarters, on a full year basis we’d expect the operating expenses as a percentage of management fees in the range of 37% to 38%, driven by scale from Landmark and the rest the business. We should see only minor changes from the current levels in Q1, 2017 with improvement thereafter. The variable comp ratio should also improve with scale and trend towards 40% to 41% in 2017, down from 42% in 2016. This improvement will be driven by the spreading of variable, relating to the holding company, global distribution and initiatives over a higher profit-based from the affiliates. As we’ve discussed the distribution ratio will increase in 2017 particularly to the extent Landmark assets rise throughout the year .Given the 40% employee equity ownership with that affiliate, we’re expecting the distribution ratio to blend to 20% to 21% for the year. Finally, we anticipated that our effective tax rate will increase with earnings in 2017. As you are aware of the tax benefits of our UK domicile as well as the amortization of acquisition intangibles tend to provide fixed dollar benefits. Therefore as pretax income increases the effective tax rate goes up, given by our marginal 40.2% state and federal rate. We currently expect a 26% to 27% tax rate for the year. In terms of margin I’d expect our topline growth combined with scale in operating expenses and variable comp to driver operating margin higher in 2017. In a normal market growth environment, I'd expect margin to move into the upper 30s. Now, I’d like to turn the call back to the operator, and Peter and I are happy to answer any questions you may have.