Xavier Destriau
Analyst · Jefferies
Thank you. And again, welcome, everyone. On Slide 7, we present key financial and operational highlights. And as Eli mentioned, our first quarter financial results reflect the improved freight rates that mostly ensued from the red sea disruptions. ZIM generated revenue of $1.6 billion in the first quarter of 2024, a 14% increase compared to the first quarter of last year. Our average freight rate per TEU was $1,452 a year-over-year increase of 4% and a 32% increase from the prior quarter. Total revenue from non-containerized cargo, which reflects mostly our car carrier services, totaled $111 million for the quarter compared to $106 million in the first quarter of 2023. While we operated more vessels in the current quarter, revenues are only slightly up due to the longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope in the current quarter. Our free cash flow in the first quarter totaled $303 million compared to $142 million in the first quarter of 2023. Turning to the balance sheet. Total debt increased by $359 million since prior year-end, mainly due to the net effect of the incoming larger vessels with longer-term charter durations. Regarding our fleet, we currently operate 147 vessels, out of which 16 are car carriers as compared to 150 vessels as of our Q4 earnings call in mid-March. The slight decrease from March resulted from the delivery of 6 new builds and the scheduled redelivery of 9 vessels. I would like to remind you that while we may continue to operate a similar number of vessels or even fewer vessels, our operated capacity has grown in 2023 and will continue to grow this year. We are replacing smaller vessels, less cost-effective tonnage with larger, more cost-efficient newbuild tonnage, thereby contributing to lower unit cost per TEU. Moreover, these vessels are also better suited to the trades in which they are being deployed again, enhancing our strategic positioning. As of today's call, 30 of the 46 new build vessels team has committed to have joined our fleet, including 10 15,000 TEU LNG vessels, 4 12,000 TEU vessels, 9 8,000 TEU LNG vessels and 7 of the smaller wide beam, 5,500 and 5,300 TEU ships. Excluding the new build capacity, the average remaining duration of our chartered tonnage continues to trend down and is now 19.7 months compared to 2.4 months in mid-March. We have a total of 21 vessels up for charter renewal in the remainder of 2024 as compared to the expected delivery of 16 new builds during this period. In addition, we have another 37 vessels up for renewal in 2025. And as we previously highlighted, this gives us ample flexibility to ensure our fleet size matches the market opportunities. Turning now to additional Q1 financial metrics on Slide 9. Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was $427 million compared to $373 million in Q1 2023, reflecting an adjusted EBITDA margin of 27% in both periods. Adjusted EBIT was $167 million or 11% margin compared to an EBIT loss of $14 million in the same quarter of last year. Net income for the first quarter was $92 million compared to a net loss of $58 million in Q1 2023. We do remain committed to returning capital to shareholders, and as such, our Board of Directors declared a dividend to shareholders of $0.23 per share or a total of $28 million, which reflects a payout of 30% of Q1 net income as per our current dividend policy. Turning now to Slide 10. We carried 846,000 TEUs in the first quarter compared to 769,000 TEUs during the same period last year. That is an increase of 10%, slightly ahead of market growth of 9%. As Eli discussed, we grew our volume on the Transpacific in Q1 attributable to our larger capacity vessels and also new lines. Transpacific volume grew 27% year-over-year, and we expect to see continued volume growth during the remainder of 2024 as we continue to upsize our capacity. Significant growth in Latin America volumes of 129% year-over-year was driven by our expanded presence in this trade. We see additional opportunities to participate in the growth of that trade. Next, we present our cash flow bridge. For the quarter, our adjusted EBITDA of $427 million converted into $326 million of cash flow generated from operating activities. Other cash flow of significant items for the quarter is obviously $740 million of debt service, mostly related to our lease liability repayments. It is here important, however, to remember that the lease liability repayments in Q1 included $235 million, reflecting down payment for 6 LNG vessels that we received during the quarter and also payments for the 5 vessels following an early notice for the exercise of purchase options we held on these vessels as we already previously mentioned on our March call. Moving now to our 2024 guidance. As you heard from Eli, our outlook for the remainder of 2024 is stronger than previously assumed. Based on the evolving market and as a result, our financial performance in 2024 is now expected to be better than our 2023 results. We are raising our full year guidance and now expect to generate adjusted EBITDA between $1.15 billion and $1.55 billion in 2024 and adjusted EBIT between $0 and $400 million. Our improved guidance is driven primarily by the strength we are seeing in spot rates. This, in turn, contributed to higher freight rate assumptions incorporated into our current guidance as compared to the freight rate assumptions we incorporated into the guidance we provided back in March. Before touching on the volume and bunker cost assumptions, I'd like to briefly discuss the contract season and how it plays out. It plays into our outlook for the remainder of the year. So, for the year ahead, our spot exposure in the Transpacific trade will remain relatively high as the new annual Transpacific contract, which went into effect on May 1, represent approximately 35% of our expected Transpacific volume. We chose to revisit our commercial approach of roughly 50%, 50% split between spot and contract volume given our expectation that the average spot rate for Transpacific for the next 12 months will likely outperform the prevailing contract rates, which were only slightly better than last year's rates. We believe that our value proposition to customers operating LNG vessels on this trade will help us achieve our volume growth objectives while leveraging the strong events rate environment. Our volume assumptions for our 2024 guidance remain unchanged, and we expect our volume growth this year to outpace market growth as we continue to upsize our fleet and increase operating capacity. Barter costs, on the other hand, are slightly higher as compared to the underlying assumptions for the guidance we provided in March. Moving to our market discussion with some data points on our commentary so far. Market evolution since November 2023 has demonstrated the volatile nature of our industry. The underlying supply-demand balance for 2024 has been and remains one of significant oversupply, as you can see in the graph on the left. Events external to our industry, namely the security concerns in the Red Sea have caused most global carriers to redivert the ships around the Cape of Good Hope. This has extended voyage durations to North Europe, the Mediterranean, and to a certain extent to the U.S. East Coast, absorbing significant capacity, bringing the supply-demand balance to a certain equilibrium. Yet the strength in spot rates of recent weeks extends beyond these trains, which were directly impacted by the Red Sea diversions. As you can see, the improvement in spot rates in Asia to U.S. East Coast, which we saw from December until mid-January is when the initial impact of the extended rotations was normalized. But as we mentioned earlier, we now see a second wave of a spot rate hikes with the improvement in freight rates, also spilling over to additional trades. We show here SCFI rates for regional trades, including Africa, Latin America and Oceania. This recent more widespread strength in rates is attributable to indications of equipment constraints, coupled with improved demand. CTS data for Q1 2024 shows a healthy start of the year. As already mentioned, global volume for Q1 2024 is up 9% compared to Q1 last year and tracking similar volume to Q1 in 2022 and Q1 2021. This suggests that the destocking cycle, which started in the second half of 2022 may have ended. However, on the right, you can see the recent increase in the ocean timeliness indicator. The OTI measures the journey or the container from the time it is set to leave a factory to the time it is picked up from its destination port. This increase suggests some stress in the global supply chain. Therefore, it remains to be seen if the current uptick in demand is in fact the beginning of a restocking cycle that would translate into a more prolonged and sustainable improvement in demand and that could continue to support freight rates. Or whether this increase is simply cheaper airing on the side of cation and ordering peak season cargo early to ensure they have it available for the holiday season, signaling only a shift in the timing of peak season demand. And on this note, we will open the call for questions. Thank you.