Xavier Destriau
Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open
Thanks, Eli, and again, welcome everyone. On this slide, we present our key financial and operational highlights. And echoing Eli's earlier comments, 2023 marked a challenging year, but ZIM remains resilient. Due to the weak market, ZIM generated revenue of $5.2 billion in 2023, a 59% decrease compared to last year. During the year, our average freight rate per TEU was $1,203, 63% lower than in 2022, as we're again adversely impacted by the continued decline in freight rates. In Q4, our average freight rate per TEU was $1,102, that is a 48% decline year-over-year., and a 3% decline from the prior quarter. Total revenue from non-containerized cargo, which reflects mostly our car carrier services, totaled $534 million for the full year of 2023 and that is 73% increase compared to prior year. This growth resulted from our expanded capacity in 2023, as well as underlying positive market dynamics. As also Eli previously indicated, the Red Sea disruptions had minimal impact on our Q4 results. Our free cash flow in the fourth quarter totaled $128 million compared to $1.05 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022. Turning to the balance sheet. Total debt increased by $666 million since prior year end, mainly due to the net effect of the incoming larger vessels with longer term charter durations. Regarding our fleet, we currently operate 150 vessels, out of which 16 are car carriers. This increase from November resulted from the delivery of 12 vessels and the scheduled redelivery of seven ships. Excluding the newbuild capacity, the average remaining duration of our current chartered tonnage continues to trend down and is now 20.4 months compared to 22.7 months in mid-November. And as of today's call, 24 of the 46 newbuild vessels ZIM committed to have joined the fleet. Since our last update in November, we received three 15,000 TEU LNG vessels, five 8,000 TEU LNG vessels, two wide beam 5,500 TEU vessels and one wide beam 5,300 TEU vessels. February 2024, we also completed the purchase of five vessels for a consideration of $129 million, following an early notice for the exercise of purchase options we held from the 2014 restructuring. These vessels range in size from 8,400 TEU to 10,000 TEU. The decision to acquire these vessels does not mark a change in our vessels' sourcing strategy, but rather it is us taking advantage of beneficial term to acquire the ships. We have a total of 30 vessels up for charter renewal in the remainder of 2024 as compared to the expected delivery of 22 newbuilds during this period. In addition, we have another 37 vessels up for renewal in 2025. This gives us ample flexibility to ensure our fleet size matches the market opportunities. Again, I would like to highlight that while we may continue to operate a similar number of vessels or even fewer vessels, our operated capacity has grown and will continue to grow in 2024. The newbuilds are replacing smaller vessels, less cost effective tonnage with larger more cost efficient tonnage, thereby contributing to lowered unit cost per vessel. These vessels are also better suited to the trades in which they are being deployed, again improving our competitiveness. Turning to our fourth quarter and full year financial performance, Q4 revenue was $1.2 billion compared to $2.2 billion in the fourth quarter of last year. Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter was $190 million compared to $973 million in Q4 2022. And for the full year, net loss was $2.69 billion compared to a net income of $4.63 billion in 2022. To remind you, our full year 2023 net loss includes a $2.1 billion impairment loss recorded in the third quarter. Adjusted EBITDA in 2023 was at $1.05 billion compared to $7.54 billion in 2022. You can see that adjusted EBITDA and EBIT margins were significantly lower this year versus last year. Turning to Slide 10. We carried 786,000 TEUs in the fourth quarter compared to 823,000 TEUs during the same period last year, that is a decrease of 5% compared to a market growth of 7%. For the full year, we carried $3.3 million TEUs, a 3% decline compared to 2022 and the overall market which was more or less flat. Importantly, our Transpacific volume grew 9% in 2023 and we expect to see growth in 2024 as we upsize our capacity. Growth in Latin America was driven by our expanded presence in this trade. And conversely, Intra-Asia volume is down as we cut our capacity in this region, including services to Australia and New Zealand and also Africa due to weaker demand. Next, we present our cash flow bridge. For the full year, our adjusted EBITDA of $1.05 billion converted into $1.02 billion of cash flow generated from operating activities. Other cash flow items for 2023 included dividend payments of $769 million made in April 2023 and $2.09 billion of debt service, mostly related to our lease liability repayments. Moving now to our 2024 guidance. We expect to generate adjusted EBITDA between $850 million and $1.45 billion in 2024, and adjusted EBIT between negative $300 million and positive $300 million. Overall, we assume average freight rates to be slightly higher than in 2024 as compared to 2023. We also expect first quarter and potentially second quarter to benefit from current higher spot rates in certain trades, while the second half is expected to be weaker than the first half of the year. We also expect our volume to grow in 2024 versus 2023 as we receive our newbuild capacity and are able to better optimize our fleet, coupled with potentially better demand than in 2022. As for our bunker costs, we expect a lower cost per ton in 2024 versus last year 2023, as we shift towards more LNG consumption. As Eli had mentioned, the crisis that has evolved in the Red Sea over the past three months, which caused most global carriers to divert their vessels away from the Suez Canal and around the Cape demonstrated the fast pace at which market conditions can change in our industry. If in November 2023, we anticipated rates to remain flat through 2024 amid a supply demand imbalance, today, the SCFI is over 80% higher as the longer voyages around the Cape are estimated to have absorbed 6% to 7% of global capacity, creating a more balanced supply demand equilibrium. Yet, the long term impact of the Red Sea crisis remains unknown. First, it remains unclear under what circumstances trades through Suez would resume. And although, there doesn't appear to be a military or political resolution of the crisis in sight, that could change as quickly -- that could change, sorry, as quickly as the crisis itself has evolved, causing rates to drop quickly back to November, December 2023 levels. Moreover, even if the crisis persists, the long term impact on rates also remains to be seen. Rates in January seem to have peaked in conjunction with a seasonal cargo rush prior to Chinese New Year and have since abated. In other words, strong demand could potentially keep the rates higher. But if demand is weak as shippers remain cautious on inventory levels throughout 2024, rates could continue to slide down. The underlying supply demand balance in 2024 points to clear oversupply with over 3 million TEUs, or approximately 10% of current global capacity expected to be delivered during the year. The Red Sea crisis has created a more balanced market. However, it should be noted that of the expected deliveries of 2024, 1.9 million TEUs, or 120 container ships, are 10,000 TEUs or larger in terms of size. These are large capacity vessels that could be deployed on East-West trades that have been impacted by the Red Sea crisis. As such, newbuild deliveries could alleviate the supply pressure that currently exists on some vessel segments. The change in market conditions also impacted capacity management actions taken by carriers. The simultaneous restrictive passage through both the Suez and Panama Canal, though for different reasons has sidelined slow steaming, which was used in 2023 to absorb some capacity, as well as idling and blanking, which were used more modestly. Expectations for scrapping in 2024 also remain limited at only approximately 357,000 TEUs, less than 2% of current global capacity compared to the 10% scheduled deliveries. Although, current market conditions may have put a hold on the various capacity management actions available to carriers, longer term, we believe IMO 2023 and the decarbonization agenda may motivate liners and vessel owners to retire older vessels earlier than in the past, resulting in a step up in scrapping and helping the market to offset some of the newbuild capacity. Short term, however, the current market condition we believe creates significant uncertainty for carriers in 2024 and warrants a cautious view of potential outcomes this year. And on this note, we will open the call for questions.