Earnings Labs

YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF)

Q4 2022 Earnings Call· Mon, Mar 13, 2023

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Transcript

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome, and thank you for joining us in this special day. Today, we celebrate the 30th Anniversary of YPF on New York Stock Exchange. Before we start, I would like to point that you have some paper and pens on your table in case that you have any question, we will collect it at the end. YPF is an integrating Argentinian energy company, which generate energy efficiently and reliably through the development and production of conventional and nonconventional gas and oil and renewable source, such as wind, sun, land and water. With the development of VacaMuerta geological formation, YPF is a leader in the production of unconventional hydrocarbons in Latin America. And through 3 industrial complexes located in La Plata, Lujan de Cuyo and Plaza Huincul, it generates fuel, petrochemicals and lubricants, offering a full range of products with a strong commercial presence in retail, agriculture, industry and LPG. YPF has as well a logistic network to supply more than 1,500 service stations across the country. And because of that, it has become the network with the largest coverage in Argentina. YPF is a leader in the fuel market. Its products ensure performance, adequate protection for each engine design, sustainability and environment, [health care]. It provides electric power to Argentina, with thermal generation plants and renewable energy source as well as fertilizers and special products to the entire Argentinian country side. In addition, starting this year, YPF has embarked on the search and exploitation of lithium in the country together with CONICET, The National Scientific and Technical Research Council. They formed Y-TEC, a technological innovation and development company for energy production. And now yes, it's the moment to hear from the Director and Chairman of the Board of the Directors, Pablo Gonzalez, and later on, the CFO, Alejandro Lew, along with the CEO, Pablo Iuliano, are going to share with us the annual results for 2022. Thank you.

Pablo Gonzalez

Management

[Foreign Language]

Alejandro Lew

Operator

[Foreign Language] Thank you all for coming. Those of you listening on live streaming, thank you for joining us, and all of you here coming to downtown Manhattan on a Friday afternoon. I know it's a lot of effort. So thank you very much for being here with us today. In terms of the financial release for the 2022 fiscal year and also the fourth quarter, we decided to spare you from the trouble of listening to us for like 30 or 40 minutes. So we decided to modernize ourselves and put it together in a 10-minute video, which we believe is going to be much more comfortable than listening to us. And after the video, Pablo and myself will go through the strategic outlook presentation, which we believe it's going to be also even more relevant for you to listen to us on that and, of course, then into Q&A. So if you can please go ahead with the video. [Audio/Video Presentation]

Pablo Iuliano

Analyst

Hello, everyone. Thank you very much for joining us today, those of you are physically here with us as well as the many of you that connected to the live streaming. It's very important for us to know that we count with all of you on the very special day for YPF. It's been a while since YPF management presented a strategic plan beyond the bits and pieces that we have been commenting on certain events. And we understood that this occasion of celebrating the 30th anniversary of our stock being listed in this institution. The New York Stock Exchange was the right one to share with you our strategic outlook focused on addressing the unique opportunities that we have in front of us. Our company celebrated its 100th anniversary last year. it will be very strange to imagine such a long trajectory being smooth or linear. Many things have happened along the way. Some very positive and others not at all, but together, they have set the grounds for building into the future. And at this very juncture, we find ourself facing unique opportunity to grow our company in a [leapfrog] way with a very focused approach on what we know, how to divest, which is generating value by providing affordable and reliable energy that also contributes to the global decarbonization process. Since we initiated our journey in VacaMuerta over 10 years ago, we understood we have a tremendous opportunity in front of us, but the challenges and fears abounded. 10 years later, after going through a remarkable learning cue, where we have invested over $10 billion on a net basis, we are proud to say that we have managed to make the dream come true, having proven the quality of the resources and having achieved level of competitiveness…

Alejandro Lew

Operator

Thank you very much, Pablo. Well, let me -- there's couldn't be in any other way, right, the CFO were talking about the numbers. So let me just start by commenting a little bit and tackling on what the platform from which we are going to start our plan for the next 5 years, which is what happened in the last 2, but very quickly, we went through the video already. But just to summarize it, we clearly managed to stabilize our production in 2021. That was the big challenge that we have ahead of us after 5 years of continuous decline, which was further accelerated in the pandemic, where we declined by 10% and in our hydrocarbon production. So 2021 was the year where we challenged ourselves to manage to stabilize the total oil and gas production, and we managed to do that through a very conscious approach and focusing on our CapEx plan since very early on that year, even though we were still in the middle of -- or coming out of the worst ever crisis that the company has lived in its 100-year history. And then after that, we managed to go into 2022, projecting or forecasting the largest organic growth in the company's history -- or sorry, in the last 25 years, actually, and we managed to achieve that, even though we were slightly behind our expectations where we started the year announcing a guidance of 8%, which then increased by almost 9%. Finally, the number came at 7.2% in oil and gas. But still, that was primarily the result of a decline in our gas production in the fourth quarter due to lack of demand. So at the end of the day, we still feel very comfortable with our achievement and particularly with how…

Pablo Iuliano

Analyst

Thank you, Alejandro. Before ending our presentation and jumping into the QA, let me briefly recap the key takeaways from our strategic outlook. It was well now for many years that VacaMuerta had a tremendous potential, given the level of recoverable results that set the Neuquina Basin as one of the few super basins around the world. And over the years, we have led the industry in transforming VacaMuerta from a dear dream into a palpable reality. Teaming up since the very early days with reliable international partners, that brought their experience to VacaMuerta who was a key factor that not only contributed with capital injections, but also incentive technical innovation and operational efficiencies. Those partnerships have allowed us to undergo a very productive learning curve enabling us to rival top of the class shale producers into the U.S.A. in terms of capital efficiency in spite of our smaller scale and younger development stage. We, therefore, have aligned our short or medium-term strategy to be focused as we can in accelerating the monetization of these very unique resources. And in doing so, we should grow Argentina's role as a relevant energy exporter, expanding on the crude oil export replacing the current natural gas imports and allowing the country to become a relevant worldwide LNG player. And in the long term, we shall embrace clean energy solutions based on Argentina's unique natural resources with opportunities to become a world-class producer and exporter of green hydrogen and a large exporter of lithium, a key mineral that should enable further penetration for intermittent renewals within the global energy matrix. The opportunity is clear, and we are determined to grasp it.

Alejandro Lew

Operator

Thank you very much, Pablo. Sorry for -- we are trying to coordinate for some closing remarks from the Ministry of Economy, who's going to -- who was unable to join us physically, but who wanted to give at least a virtual, I would say, salutation, if you may call it and provide some closing remarks. So we are trying to coordinate. That's why I was looking at my phone. We are trying to coordinate the specific timing, but I think he's going to be with us in just 1 or 2 minutes, the virtual connection. And in the meantime, I just want to mention, we are, of course, going to handle a Q&A session, mostly directed to our analysts. As you know, this is formally also the conference for the financial results of 2022. And so we want to provide as we typically do a space for analysts to ask any questions that they want. There are some of they here present in this room and many of them are virtually connected. So we are trying -- we will try -- after the closing remarks, we will handle that Q&A. And we will prioritize those questions. And of course, then any question from the audience here physically, we can, of course, undertake that as well if time permits. So if you have any questions that you would like to raise in the order of organization, if you would please write it down. There is a piece of paper and pens on the tables, and we will collect them. And again, depending on how many questions we get from analysts, then, of course, we could also leave some space for answering some of the questions of you here in the room. I'm not very good on that. Okay. Very good. They're asking me to extend this. So as you know, I'm a financial guy. So I don't know how to do that. I could be talking about more numbers, if you want, but, I guess, I would bore you. Maybe what I would suggest, I know it's going to be a discoordination and maybe the people coordinating this will kill me. But maybe you can grab some coffee while we wait for the minister's closing remarks, and then we'll go into the Q&A. Maybe that's a good idea? Yes, let's do that. Oh, there he is, sorry. Okay. I didn't see that.

Sergio Massa

Analyst

[Foreign Language]

A - Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Thank you so much for your time, Minister -- Economy Minister, Sergio Massa. Now we are going to start to read the questions that we have been receiving during the whole event. So you can tell us. First question apron has 4 questions, Frank McGann from BofA. He wants to know if the official FX weakness more notably over the next 6, 12 months? How is this likely affect your cash flow generation? How long could it take to adjust gasoline and diesel prices, followup on FX on CapEx?

Alejandro Lew

Operator

Thank you, Frank, for your question. I guess, you're listening. Clearly, that's the million-dollar question, right? Of course, how we are going to tackle price adjustments. Of course, as was mentioned before, we would expect to continue in a global environment with prices well above average. We would expect to continue, of course, aiming at aligning ourselves, although we understand that reality to be hard to achieve as was demonstrated in recent months or in the last couple of years. But still, if you look at how 2022 price adjustments took place, we managed to improve our dollar-denominated prices or our dollar equivalent prices of fuels in the local market by close to 30%. So tracking very closely what happened in the international markets, of course, with some lags like what we have in the second quarter, where we got to a point where we were almost at 40% discount to international reference prices. But then we find out -- we finished the year at closer to 25% and for what have been seeing or we have been managing along 2023. So far, we've been in the range of 15% to 20% discount to international prices. So going forward, we would expect to continue or aiming to continue adjusting prices in a way to compensate to the largest possible extent for the devaluation of the currency. And then also depending on the evolution of international prices, of course, maintaining a relevant correlation to those variables. So in terms of how quickly we could adjust among a steep devaluation scenario if that were to occur, which no one have the ability to predict precisely that will depend -- in the past, there were periods where there was a faster adjustment and periods where there was a slower adjustment. Clearly, we would aim at adjusting as fast as possible to avoid any deterioration in our dollar margins. But that is very hard to predict. And of course, we will need to remain very conscious of the realities of the local economy, the inflationary environment and of course, taking all of those barriers into account, we will aim at maintaining our dollar margins as close to current prices as possible. And then, of course, if we were to suffer -- if the country were to have a steep devaluation and if we wouldn't manage to adjust very quickly, of course, that will affect our cash flow generation. And that's why we said that we are going to prioritize capital investments because we believe that, that's the way to generate the most value for our shareholders. But then if we were to require to cut back on those CapEx plans to maintain financial prudency, that will be the idea to tackle that. But so far, we are not expecting that to happen, we would expect to maintain healthy cash flow generation in the months to come.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

And the second question that Frank McGann from BofA has is, how are you planning to structure the investment in LNG and VacaMuerta Sur? What stake could take YPF will be structured an independent equity entities? How much should be financial through -- sorry, how much should be financed through launch from export agencies or other sources?

Alejandro Lew

Operator

Okay. In terms of the LNG project, we are still on an early stage of analysis of the project. Of course, we have signed the MOU with Petronas. We are working very closely together on the technical and economic analysis to get to a final investment decision, as was mentioned at some point next year with the idea of having an FID before the end of next year. We have not fully tackled the financing of the project yet. Of course, we still have some time ahead of us. But we definitely are not aiming at -- or clearly, we would love to, but being realistic, we are not aiming at a typical 80% to 90% project financing for such a project, but rather a much more conservative level, significantly lower than that. So both parties understand that to get to FID, we need to clearly put together a clear financing plan that we will of course, discuss internally first and negotiate or work with financial institutions towards that. And definitely, we would expect probably some multilateral support, even though many multilaterals are closed these days for financing hydrocarbons, but we still believe that there are some others that are capable of looking at financing natural gas, like the Corporacion Andina de Fomento has recently announced potential financing of infrastructure -- pipeline infrastructure in Argentina, understanding that natural gas is a transition fuel. So we believe that the same way that CAF has done, we expect to be able to work with some multilateral agencies and ECAs to also put together a reasonable financing plan for that. So all in all, of course, it's going to require a further equity contribution from the partners, and that's why -- as mentioned in the presentation, we believe that our plan for coming years should enable us to provide our fair share of that investment with the amount of resources that we are likely to release through the monetization -- primarily the monetization of our crude oil opportunities.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Third question is, which is -- what is the minimum level of CapEx necessary to maintain your operations with the existing levels of oil and gas output?

Alejandro Lew

Operator

Okay. We tackled that question in the past, of course, the larger proportion of shale in our mix makes capital intensity more relevant as well as cost pressures or cost increases also have increased our overall minimum CapEx required. So there is no specific number that I can provide, but I would say that probably is in the range of $3 billion to $3.5 billion per year at current prices at current cost levels to stabilize our hydrocarbon production level.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

And last question from Frank McGann from BofA is how should we think of the decline in oil reserves? Given the oil growth expected, do you see significant upside reserves?

Alejandro Lew

Operator

If I understood the question correctly, in terms of our forward-looking for the evolution of reserves, clearly, there is a particularity when considering P1 reserves for shale resources, because it's not -- it's a different way of assessing and pricing those than comparing to conventional resources. So you need to be developing your resources to be able to fully transform them into P1. So clearly, as we move into full development of VacaMuerta and mostly the core hub and also the north and south blocks, we would expect to continue generating healthy recovery ratios in terms of how we manage to maintain our reserves, P1 reserves in a healthy level compared to our production levels, which is what we have managed to achieve last year and this year as well, where even though we clearly this year, have grown our production by 7%, both in BOEs and also in oil, in particular. And still, we managed to grow our P1 reserves by 4% with a reserve replacement ratio of around 124%.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Ms. Carvalho from UBS has 3 questions. With elections coming this year, what are the challenges, risks in case the country continue facing tough economy environment, high inflation and devaluation?

Alejandro Lew

Operator

Sorry, can you repeat that question?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Yes, sure. what are the challenges or risks in case the country continue facing tough economy environment, high inflation and/or devaluation.

Alejandro Lew

Operator

I'm not sure that the question is clearly understood. But if it's clearly a political question on how the country could evolve and the different political scenarios, of course, I'm not the person to talk about that definitely. If the question is more related to how we would expect YPF to continue evolving under different scenarios, I would just say that we heard it from the minister, we heard it from our Chairman and our CEO. I think the resilience that has already been achieved and the focus that the country has on monetizing and transforming the energy sector into a sector that can help transforming or leading the transformation of Argentina's balance of payment. I think that the realities for the sector and for YPF should be positive in any political scenario. And clearly, we believe that if anything, the sector should be part of the solution to any complicated economic situation.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Second question from Luiz Carvalho from UBS. Company had a good year managing to increase prices and balancing cash flow. What is the outlook for 2023? What can we expect in terms of further price adjustment?

Alejandro Lew

Operator

Well, I think, I already tackled that. So, I guess, for the interest of time, I would just skip it. But clearly, I think it was more than answered before.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Okay. YPF and Argentina has relevant infrastructure projects undergoing? What are the main priorities? How are they going to be financials? Please update on main projects?

Alejandro Lew

Operator

I think it was already also most of it tackled in the presentation. We -- for coming years, we are -- we have a very focused approach and strategy in investing in mostly and monetizing our oil opportunities as a primary objective. While we continue to supply our commitments of natural gas and while we work in pilot projects for the long-term energy opportunities, as Pablo mentioned in lithium and in hydrogen that we definitely believe that are part of the future. So -- but in the short term, the main objective -- the main focus is monetizing oil and investing in the infrastructure that is required to be able to monetize that oil and, of course, to continue to handle the larger portion of our VacaMuerta gas production out of our total portfolio. So midstream debottlenecking, the minister mentioned the several projects of oil midstream that YPF is leading, some of them being joined by the industry, some of them -- what I would say most -- all of them joined by the industry at different levels of participation. But those are key to being able to generate the opportunity or to truly make the opportunity come true of becoming a relevant and large oil exporter. As you probably know, the country has already become an exporter in 2022. YPF has still focused in fully supplying our own needs in our refineries. But down the road, we believe that the opportunity to continue to grow exports, it's very appealing. It's a great opportunity for the country and the pipelines that need to be in place and the new VacaMuerta Sur project that YPF is leading for putting together a whole new pipeline system connecting VacaMuerta to the Atlantic into a new port terminal. Those are the clear -- key projects that -- infrastructure projects that we have ahead of us. Of course, while we do that, we continue to invest in our multiyear program for revamping our refineries. That's part of also becoming clearly updating our finance or improving our refineries to reduce the sulfur content of our fuels, where I didn't mention it. But in our plan, we expect to be our fuels having less than 80% of -- or sorry, 80% of our fuels becoming low sulfur fuels produced in our refinery. So those are clearly our main projects.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Another question came from Credit Suisse from Regis Cardoso. She wants to know if you can give us more details on YPF's plans for lithium exploration, size of opportunity, CapEx and timing?

Alejandro Lew

Operator

Some of that was already tackled also. Clearly, so far, we have become involved in an exploration project in the province of Catamarca. It's 20,000 hectares site where we believe that there is interesting brine concentration for us to work on. Of course, I -- there is a competitive advantage that YPF has in terms of the seismic information that our company has from past works in the northern of the country -- in the north part of the country. So that is a competitive advantage for YPF to work on lithium exploration as well. And because that's clearly not that I'm an expert, but our geologists tell us that, that's a key competitive advantage. And -- so far, we did decide that we were not going to enter into a more evolved project paying prices or costs that we cannot, at this point, make sure that those are fair prices. And so we decided to go for an early exploration, so a greenfield project. And clearly, we are looking for further opportunities. But so far, that is our main project. We expect to enter probably into production, if we are successful in our exploration to enter into a production phase before 2030. And to get there, we probably need about -- it's not a large investment probably in the order of $50 million to $60 million in the next 3 years to prove the available resources and to appraise them. And then if we enter into a production clearly into a production phase, that would probably be somewhere north of $300 million in investment, but to put together the facilities required to enter into full production mode, targeting somewhere in the order of 25,000 tonnes per year at this site.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

And Regis Cardoso has another question. Can you also provide more details on what you believe will be [YPF's] right in green hydrogen capital requirements?

Alejandro Lew

Operator

At this point, it's very difficult to answer that question. Clearly, what we do have in mind is that a key variable or a key input for the future evolution of green -- or the competitiveness of green hydrogen depends on the capacity to provide efficient renewable electricity. And there is where Pablo tackled also in his presentation, we see Argentina having a tremendous potential there with capacity factors well above the world average. Particularly in our case, through YPF Luz, we -- our capacity factors in wind farms in the south of the country is also above the Argentine average where we have 1 wind farm of 60% capacity -- average capacity factors in Manantiales Behr, for example, and an average, at 52. So we definitely think that Argentina and has put -- was put out by [indiscernible] a few months ago, Argentina is a top 3 competitive player -- potential competitive player for green hydrogen production, given its low cost for renewable electricity. So at this point, again, we mapped out in the presentation that we could put together efficiently in a very ambitious way, a group of wind farms in Patagonia, aggregating 100 gigawatts of total capacity. That would be a size that our technicians consider that would be efficient to transmit to a center point that could be an H2 producing facility, and that would imply total -- or a plant for producing about 8.5 million tonnes per annum of green hydrogen. So clearly, that's extremely ambitious, 100 gigawatt is 2.5x the current total installed capacity in Argentina in terms of power electricity or power generation, but that's just to give an idea of the potential scalability of such opportunity. But of course, it depends. Going into that will depend on how technology electrolysis evolves and whether H2 actually a green hydrogen becomes mainstream, as many are expecting, which is still difficult to know, right?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Andres Cardona from Citi has the following question. Regarding Maxus, what is the status of the claim? Do you expect any update on the future -- in the near future?

Alejandro Lew

Operator

What to expect for the near future is difficult to say. As probably many know, the trial was scheduled to start around these days in March and to last until late April. Recently, the different parties to the claim have submitted a joint request to the court to postpone the beginning of the full trial, and that was postponed to late June, and that should take place between June and July. So the latest that we can comment is that the trial process was postponed by request of the different parties to -- on the claim and the court basically accepted that and authorized that on the same day that it was requested. And so that's the latest that we can comment on the Maxus case.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

From Morgan Stanley, Bruno Montanari. How sticky is the CapEx budget in coming years?

Alejandro Lew

Operator

Sorry?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

How sticky is the CapEx budget in coming years?

Alejandro Lew

Operator

Well, we -- I mentioned also when talking about the numbers that we expect CapEx to be in the $5 billion to $6 billion range for the next 5 years. and that should be enough to -- for us to tackle the opportunity that we see ahead of us. So, yes, I believe that we should remain within the levels that we are expecting or estimating for this year for 2023. And we shouldn't be doing anything beyond that. Of course, that does not include any significant capital investment on the LNG project which is still subject to FID. So clearly, a footnote on that chart was that the $5 billion to $6 billion does not include any relevant capital investment in the LNG project.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

From Barclays, David [Herbert] wants to know what type of debt do you anticipate raising in 2023? Will it be local market that line the 2 local issues you place in January? Or will it come from different sources?

Alejandro Lew

Operator

Well, clearly, as mentioned, we are expecting a year of negative free cash flow unless there is any positive surprise. And in doing or in tackling those needs, we are concentrating mostly in the local markets and in the -- in our relationship banks. On both 2 sources of funding, we have lowered our exposure in a very meaningful way along the last 3 years when reducing our total indebtedness. Most of the reduction came from the local capital market bonds and the debt outstanding and the financial institutions. Clearly, that was shorter in general in nature, and that's why we -- at maturity, we pay down all of that debt. So at this point, we are at very low levels of outstanding. So we believe we have ample room to grow or to tap those 2 sources mainly. Having said that, we are also working on potentially enlarging and extending the existing A/B loan facility the multi -- that is led by CAF, it's a multilateral A/B loan facility. We are working together with CAF and some financial institutions to potentially extend and enlarge that facility. But all in all, our key focus would be mostly in the local capital markets and in tapping on mostly trade financing. Recently, we have issued a $300 million equivalent or a combination of 2 bonds in the local market for a total of about $300 million equivalent. The main portion of that being a $230 million linked bond with a 3-year tenor at 1%. So of course, there is a very interesting arbitrage to take advantage of in tapping the local capital markets and also in trade financing, we just raised a couple of preexport financing with 2-year tenors at 2.5%. So clearly, we would definitely tackle those opportunities before considering other sources.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

From Puente, Konstantinos Papalias, is asking could you provide an estimate on fuel imports for 2023?

Alejandro Lew

Operator

Yes. It clearly will depend on how demand continues to evolve. What we have seen so far in the last few months, diesel demand has come down, primarily on the back of the realities in the agribusiness sector. And gasoline continues to go higher. So -- but all in all, we ended the year 2022 at an average of 11% in terms of total fuel imported as a proportion of our total local sales. And that is slightly above average and above historical average after some peak that we had in the third quarter. But then -- so we would expect probably similar levels for 2023 as well.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

From Itau, Alejandra Aranda is asking, could you give us an idea in terms of YPF crude oil exports going forward?

Alejandro Lew

Operator

Yes. clearly, as a 5-year plan, we would expect to reach those 150,000 or so barrels per day that we are targeting. Clearly, that would depend on us being able to deliver on our growth expectations. But we should be starting to become an exporter of crude as early as this year. Hopefully, if things go well, we should start exporting through the [indiscernible] pipeline that the minister mentioned also into Chile as early as May of this year. On an initial phase before the new VacaMuerta Norte pipeline that will connect and will increase the capacity to transport oil from the center of VacaMuerta into the northern part of Neuquen, where the trans-Andean pipeline starts. So we would expect an early stage export of about 40,000 barrels. That's not only YPF, YPF and some partners that are teaming up with us for that opportunity and probably raising that to about 70,000 barrels a day once the VacaMuerta Norte pipeline is fully up and running probably at some point in the fourth quarter.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

And the last question comes from Santander, Walter Chiarvesio wants to know what is your EBITDA margin expectations in 2027 by shifting to sell cheaper oil?

Alejandro Lew

Operator

I'm not sure about the cheaper oil last part of the question. But basically, based on the numbers that we put out, the margin would be probably in the order of 35% to 40%. But again, assuming the -- clearly, there is a lot of sensitivities that need to be taking into consideration for that. But roughly speaking, we believe that total margin should trend upwards. And clearly, VacaMuerta being very profitable and so we would see probably margins trending upwards from where we are today and getting closer to the 40% mark. So somewhere in the mid-30s to high 30s would be our expectation.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Thank you so much for your accurate answers. And now we are going to hear again Pablo Gonzalez, Director of YPF.

Pablo Gonzalez

Management

[Foreign Language]