William Osbourn
Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open
Thank you, John. As John reviewed, we saw good progress on costs and productivity from Project Own It that drove margin improvement, which coupled with higher equity income and lower shares resulted in strong adjusted earnings expansion, up 34% and enables us to raise our full-year adjusted earnings guidance to $3.80 to $3.95, from a range of $3.70 to $3.80. This was all also demonstrates the current positive earnings expansion set up that we have while we build the foundation to turnaround revenue. I will now review in more detail the income statement. In total, revenue declined 7% in constant currency and 9.4% at actual currency. This below trend was largely driven by two factors, lower transactional revenues and a decrease in activity in certain areas as we implemented some of our transformational actions. I'll cover these factors in more detail when I review revenue. However, it is important to note that we saw relative stability and underlying page volume trends and anticipate revenue rates of decline will improve each quarter as we move through 2019. Turning to profitability. Adjusted operating margin of 11.3% improved 140 basis points year-over-year and drove $7 million in operating profit growth is the decline in revenue was more than offset by Project Own It’s driven improvement in gross margin of 50 basis points and in SAG as a percentage of revenue of 100 basis points. RD&E was 4.2% of revenue which was 10 basis points higher year-over-year due to lower revenue as well as reductions in sustaining engineering there were partially offset by investments within our research centers and incubation programs in support of our growth initiatives. Below operating profit adjusted equity income of $57 million increased $46 million year-over-year from one-time adjustments in the prior year as well as benefits to Fuji Xerox from the recent cost actions. Adjusted other expenses net of $26 million was $21 million worse year-over-year driven by lower gains on asset sales while the adjusted tax rate of 26% decreased 2.3 points year-over-year. Overall adjusted EPS of $0.91 was up $0.23 from the first quarter of 2018. On a GAAP basis we had $0.55 of earnings per share, which was up $0.47 from the first quarter of 2018. The largest drivers of the difference between GAAP and adjusted we're transaction costs in the prior year of $38 million associated with the terminated Fuji transaction and a $35 million credit in 2019 associated with the U.S. Tax Act. The difference between GAAP and adjusted EPS also includes our normal adjustments around restructuring and related costs including those for Fuji Xerox, non-service retirement related costs and amortization of intangible assets. To quickly touch on restructuring and related costs; in Q1 we had $112 million of charges in line with our plan. In addition to normal course restructuring this amount included $50 million of asset impairment and other facility related charges as we consolidate and decommission facilities as well as $38 million related to severance costs that we are contractually required to pay our employees transferred as part of the shared services arrangement we recently entered into with HCL. We continue to expect approximately $225 million of restructuring related costs for the full-year. Before moving on to our discussion of cash flows, I wanted to cover one other guidance update. We believe our stock at these levels represents a good value and return on investment. Accordingly, we are increasing our full-year expectations for share repurchase to at least $600 million from at least $300 million. With the expectation that the incremental repurchases will be weighted toward the latter part of the year. Moving now to cash flow, operating cash flow was a source of $226 million, up $10 million year-over-year and free cash flow was $211 million up $13 million. This represents a good start to the year and what historically is our seasonally lowest cash flow quarter and puts us on track to deliver our full-year operating cash flow guidance of $1.15 billion to $1.25 billion and free cash flow guidance of $1.0 billion to $1.1 billion. Key cash flow drivers in Q1 included a higher use of cash from accrued compensation, $73 million in Q1 2019 versus $32 million in Q1 2018 as we move the timing of the payment of 2018 annual bonuses into Q1 this year. A use of cash, within working capital of $45 million as the decrease in cash flow from accounts payable due to the timing of supplier and vendor payments as well as lower spending more than offset a lower used or improvement in inventory. Restructuring payments of $33 million and defined pension plan contributions of $34 million both were lower year-over-year driven in part by changes to our policies and benefits. Finance assets or a source of $110 million reflecting both seasonality was a source of $93 million in 2018 as well as lower originations and the move we have seen over time of sales to channels with lower internal financing penetration. CapEx in the quarter was a use of $15 million, which was modestly under the $18 million in 2018. We continue to expect approximately $150 million of CapEx for the full-year. Lastly, within financing cash flows, we returned $165 million or 78% of free cash flow to shareholders through $62 million in dividends and $103 million in share repurchase, representing 3.3 million shares at an average price of $31.05 per share. If we turn to the next Slide, I'll review in more detail, the revenue dynamics in the quarter. As referenced earlier, first quarter revenue declined 9.4% or 7% in constant currency, and included a negative one point impact from the OEM business that has been running off the loss of a large customer. This negative impact will decrease to only about half a point starting in Q2. Overall, the revenue decline was below our full-year expectations are down approximately 5% in constant currency, driven by two unique factors. First, timing within transactional revenue streams both ESR and within post sale. And second, a slowdown in some areas where we made organizational coverage changes. Looking forward, we expect the rate of decline to improve each quarter sequentially on a year-over-year basis, getting us in the range of an approximate 5% decline in constant currency for the full-year. Currency impact to lesson during the year, but still slightly more than 1% negative full-year impact. This improvement comes from moving beyond some of the Q1 headwinds, as well as from expectations, that benefits will begin to build from investments we are making to drive revenue. Our Q1 profitability allows us to increase our planned revenue investments through the year. Turning for a closer look at revenue streams, starting with equipment. Although down 10.2% or 7.6% in constant currency, results were actually mixed. Entry once again showed growth and was up 3.2% in constant currency driven by indirect channels, high-end improved from recent trends and was relatively flat year-over-year in constant currency with positive mix dynamics, driven by strong sales of the Iridesse production press as well as good activity in the high-end inkjet driven by our Brenva press. Offsetting these positives were declines in mid-range, which was down 7.2% in constant currency. As we saw a slowdown in sales in some areas as we implemented organizational changes and where within XBS, we transitioned a significant number of accounts from U.S. enterprise. Post sale in the quarter was down 9.2% or 6.8% at constant currency. This was off trend of down 5% to 5.5% in constant currency. However, I would like to highlight that the underlying page volume trends while still declining were broadly stable, which gives us confidence in Q2 should begin to show improvement. Within Q1 results were softer in the two areas we highlighted. First in the more transactional post sale streams, declines were higher driven by lower unbundled sales of paper and supplies and developing market regions following a strong Q4, and within XBS, the timing of larger third-party IT hardware sales. In XBS, we have direct line of sight to a significant third-party IT hardware deal already for Q2. The secondary related to a slowdown in areas where we have organizational changes. For instance, there were higher declines in the accounts recently transferred to XBS, so as to gain better coverage alignment and where new account management is still ramping up. To close out our revenue discussion, services which we previously termed Management Document Services or MDS comprised 39% of revenue and declined 2.9% in constant currency. We continue to see growth in SMB services, which comprise approximately 29% of services revenue. However, results here were also impacted by the factors mentioned earlier. Overall, we expect improvement in services as we gain traction from the recently announced new offerings and coverage investments and recover from lower signings in prior periods. So to reiterate, we expect improving trends in revenue. However, as we indicated last quarter, we have realistic expectations around the path to improvement and our earnings and cash flow guidance in 2018 do not rely on better revenue trends as was demonstrated with the adjusted EPS guidance increase we announced today. Shifting now from revenue to profitability and earnings. Adjusted operating margin of 11.3% increased to 140 basis points year-over-year, while adjusted EPS of $0.91 increased $0.23 or 34% year-over-year, which represented our strongest EPS growth in some time. Both very positive results, the point to the progress we're making in transforming our operations. Looking at the drivers year-over-year, the adjusted operating margin expansion of 140 basis points more than offset the impact of the revenue declines and resulted in $7 million growth in adjusted operating profit. Within our operations as John covered, we are seeing the flow through benefits of Project Own It. These actions span the enterprise and we are confident in achieving at least $640 million in savings we targeted with the large majority of those savings coming from actions that have already been put in motion. This also puts us on track to deliver our guidance of 100 to 150 basis points improvement in adjusted operating margin for the full-year. Overall, our operating results coupled with the growth in equity income and lower shares drove our strong earnings. So very positive results on profitability and earnings, which we expect will continue, although I should note that we don't anticipate equity income to provide as much of a benefit in Q2 given the seasonality of Fuji Xerox this fiscal year where our Q2 is their Q1. I will now finish up with a discussion on capital structure. We ended the first quarter with $4.8 billion of debt and $723 million of cash on the balance sheet. We breakdown debt between financing and core by first calculating the financing debt by applying a 7:1 leverage to our financing assets, financing receivables and equipment on operating leases with the remaining debt assumed to be in support of the core business. In Q1, this calculation resulted and assumed financing debt of $3.3 billion and core debt of $1.5 billion. As the debt ladder reflects, we repaid our March senior note and have one December maturity of approximately $600 million. Our core net debt was $700 million as of the end of Q1 which was consistent with our 2018 ending core net debt. Our core leverage at the end of the quarter was less than 2x free cash flow and thus, we do not see any immediate requirement to reduce our core net debt levels. We have access to a number of capital sources as well as ample liquidity to handle upcoming maturities. Another important element of our capital structure is our pension assets and liabilities. As of December 31, 2018 our net unfunded position was $1.2 billion, which compared to $1.4 billion as of the end of 2017 and $2.2 billion as of the end of 2016, and it included approximately $775 million of unfunded pension liabilities which by design do not get funded. From a funding perspective, we continue to expect contributions of approximately $140 million in 2019 and believe we are well positioned to have a stable level of pension contributions over time. We know there are questions around what our capital structure could look like if we have a transaction for our leasing business, and while this premature for us to provide any specifics, we remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet, which is important to our business. I will now hand it back over to John to summarize before we move on to Q&A.