Ursula M. Burns
Analyst · Cross Research
Good morning, and thanks for joining us today. During the first quarter, we delivered results in our Services business that align with our growth strategy and our expectations. However, we fell short in our Document Technology business, which put pressure on our overall results. We'll talk today about the consistent trends that we see in our business, with Services becoming a larger part of our total revenue, now at 55% and fueling our annuity base, which is now 86% of total revenue. And we'll discuss the consistent trends that we're seeing in the marketplace, which require fast implementation of business model changes. We remain focused on earnings expansion and generating strong cash flow, and we remain committed to our full year expectations on both. And here is a closer look at Q1 results. We reported adjusted EPS of $0.27. This includes a $0.02 benefit from the reduction of a litigation reserve. As a result, earnings were above our guidance. In Services, we delivered 4% revenue growth, along with a stable segment margin and a 64% increase in the TCV of signings to $3.7 billion. Again, the results in our Services business were as expected for the first quarter, with signings coming in better than expectations and margins slightly lower. We're making steady progress on managing the cost base to improve the profitability of the Services business as we continue to ramp for growth -- for more growth. In Document Technology, revenue was down 9% and segment margin declined 1.7 points. Q1 performance was weaker than expected due to timing issues with our recent ConnectKey launch of mid-range products, as well as continued tough market conditions. I'll provide more detail in a moment but want to assure you that we understand the issues and are taking immediate actions to address them, including plans to reinvest our earnings upside in Q1 to accelerate restructuring activities in Q2. During Q1, we used $87 million in operating cash. That's in line with normal seasonality and reflects a temporary increase in inventory. On the next slide, we'll take a closer look at the income statement. Total revenue of $5.4 billion was down 3%, reflecting growth in Services and weaker-than-expected revenue in Document Technology. Based on our product backlog and steady growth in Services, I am confident top line results will improve throughout the year. During Q1, lower revenue put pressure on margin. As a result, operating margin of 7.4% was down 1.1 points from last year. And here's what contributed to the margin decline in the quarter. First, as with any major product launch, we made investment -- incremental SAG investments in Q1 to support the ConnectKey announcement, invested in sales training, channel outreach and marketing. We planned for the initial revenue benefit from the launch to offset the incremental costs. But the revenue ramp got off to a slower start, and total Q1 Document Technology revenue declined more than our expectations. So the revenue shortfall resulted in SAG at a higher percent of revenue. Some of this will self correct as revenue picks up both for ConnectKey and in our production color business. But as I mentioned, we'll implement a higher level of cost actions in Q2. Second, Services is a larger part of our total revenue. As a result, margin is impacted by higher growth in lower-margin businesses such as IT Outsourcing and Transactional BPO. In Q1, our adjusted Other was $12 million. That's down $67 million due to the litigation reserve reduction and lower restructuring. Equity income of $47 million grew $7 million, driven by profit growth of -- at Fuji Xerox, and the adjusted tax rate was 22%. This includes a benefit from the Taxpayer Relief Act. Adjusted EPS of $0.27 was $0.04 higher than 2012. I remain confident that we'll deliver solid earnings growth in 2013, benefiting from our cost actions, share repurchase, portfolio expansion and Services growth. On Slide 6, we'll review our Services segment. The 4% revenue increase in Services reflects steady growth in BPO, which was up 3%; ITO, which was up 13%; and Document Outsourcing, up 1%. And here's a closer look at each of these areas. Business Process Outsourcing represents more than 60% of our total Services revenue. We are benefiting from strong growth in transactional processing and state government services. This was partially offset by volume declines in other areas. We're quite pleased with the organic growth in BPO and had less contribution from acquisitions in this space. Keep in mind that in Q1 of last year, BPO increased 13%, giving us a tough year-over-year compare. I'm also pleased with the solid performance in IT Outsourcing. It's the benefit of megadeals that we signed in 2011. In Document Outsourcing, growth was lower in the quarter, a slower start to the year than we expected. But signings for new Managed Print Services and renewals were quite strong and will flow through to improve revenue later in the year. As a matter of fact, total signings were our good story across the board. They were up 64% year-over-year. Renewals were particularly strong as well this quarter. The renewal potential and the high success rate is reflected in our 89% win rate. New business annual recurring revenue was up 8% year-over-year. The pipeline is up 5%, a steady growth even with strong signings. Segment margins of 9.3% was flat. We offset negative mix and pricing with cost reductions. In quarter 2, we have a tough compare from last year's 10.6% margin, but we'll continue to press for efficiency while never compromising on client satisfaction. So we expect Q2 segment margin around 10%, reflecting strength in BPO and ITO and a lower margin from Document Outsourcing. And for the full year, we continue to expect to be in the 10% to 12% range, with modest year-over-year improvement. So Services in summary, revenue metrics trending well and margin holding ground, delivering solid performance as expected. I'll turn to Slide 7 for a review of our Document Technology business. In Document Technology, we expected a revenue decline of mid-single digits. During Q1, revenue came in lower at a 9% decline, driven by a 12% decline in equipment sales. In reviewing the results, here's where we saw the shortfall in revenue, which created pressure on segment margin, and here's why we're confident that the results will improve going forward. First, lower-than-expected performance from Europe and some spot weakness in developing markets resulted in lower post-sale revenue. We continue to have our eyes wide open to the macro trends. That's why we're scaling investments in higher growth areas, not only in outsourcing services but also in color printing and expanding distribution to small and mid-sized businesses. Install rates are good indicators of our progress in these areas. A4 color MFDs, up 16%; and high-end color, up 44%. Second, in February, we announced ConnectKey. It's a software system embedded in 16 new Xerox multifunction printers, some of which began shipping in Q1 and many that are shipping now in Q2. This is a significant launch for our mid-range business. As I said, the install ramp started a bit later than expected. It has since picked up, and we now have a healthy backlog that will serve us well during the year. For the balance of 2013, here's what will contribute to revenue improvement: a full launch of ConnectKey; new high-end color systems, including advanced iGen presses and the addition of Impika inkjet printers; and expanded coverage of SMB through our global imaging distributors and through additional indirect channel partners. These are all profitable growth drivers to help offset uncertainty related to macro conditions. Again, focusing on the cost base continues to be a priority. We're making progress in taking costs out of a legacy infrastructure, but we need to accelerate this progress especially in Europe. Considering our expectations for improving equipment revenue and the competitive price environment, Q2 segment margin will be somewhat lower year-over-year, but sequential improvements from Q1. Slide 8 is a look at cash flow in the quarter. Cash from operations in Q1 is in line with seasonality. The $87 million use of cash is a bit weaker than in 2012, but that's largely due to a temporary increase in inventory. Accounts receivable was less of a cash use in the quarter due to lower reliance on factoring in Q4. In line with our expectations, finance receivables was less of a source of cash. Also, as anticipated, cash contributions to our global pension plan was lower year-over-year by $34 million, and this reflects our expected full year decline of $150 million. Moving down to investing. We spent $107 million on CapEx and $58 million on dividends. And as we announced in February, our quarterly dividend will increase by 35%, effective with dividends payable in April. Cash from financing was a much smaller source of cash. And last year, we went to market in Q1 to pre-fund a May note. This year, we have a smaller note coming due in May of $400 million. We plan to retire this note in line with our debt reduction guidance. And as a result, debt of $8.5 billion was lower year-over-year by $1.1 billion and flat to year end. And $4.9 billion of our debt is associated with our financing business. We did a nominal amount of share repurchase in Q1, driven by our cash flow timing. We continue to plan on repurchasing at least $400 million in shares this year weighted towards the second half, in line with cash flow. And we continue to expect $2.1 billion to $2.4 billion in cash with no change to capital allocation plans. So let's turn to Slide 9 for a wrap up and then we'll take your questions. So in summary, I call our performance mixed in the quarter. Again, I am pleased with Services, and we're seeing improving trends, especially in reducing the cost base, delivering stable segment margins and growing signings. These results are strategically important to the transformation of our company. But I'm disappointed in the slow start to the year in the Document Technology business. I also believe that we understand the issues in our control and that we are taking the right actions to make progress from here. Our product innovation brings differentiated value, investing in areas of growth like in Services, high-end color and in SMB distribution. And we're divesting in lower growth, non-core areas like our North American paper business. Our pricing is competitive, and we continue to take cost actions to maximize profit. Across our entire business, we'll continue to rationalize our portfolio and restructure our cost base to create a leaner and more flexible business model. So for the full year, we expect total revenue to come in at the low end of our flat to 2% range. Our full year guidance for earnings, for cash flow and capital allocations remain unchanged. For the second quarter, we expect adjusted EPS of $0.23 to $0.25. Again, we plan to increase restructuring activities in Q2. Approximately $0.02 of restructuring is comprehended in our second quarter guidance. Expected first half results will keep us on track to meet our full year guidance of adjusted EPS of $1.09 to $1.15. With improving margins, cost controls and steady growth, we'll consistently expand earnings and generate strong cash. We'll continue to take a balanced approach to our capital allocation, which creates value for our shareholders. That's a good place for me to end. Before we open it up to questions, let me turn it over to Jim Lesko, Head of Investor Relations. Jim?