Earnings Labs

Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL)

Q2 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 30, 2015

$79.27

-0.18%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day and welcome to the Xcel Energy's Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Company Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Paul Johnson, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Paul A. Johnson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Good morning, and welcome to Xcel Energy's 2015 second quarter earnings release conference call. Joining me today are Ben Fowke, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Teresa Madden, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. In addition, we have other members of the management team in the room to answer your questions. This morning, we will update you on recent legislative, regulatory, and business developments, review our 2015 second quarter results, and reaffirm our 2015 earnings guidance range. Slides that accompany today's call are available on our webpage. Please note we have updated our slides to provide more information. In addition, we will post a video on our website of Teresa summarizing our financial results. As a reminder, some of the comments during today's conference call may contain forward-looking information. Significant factors that could cause results to differ from those anticipated are described in our earnings release and our filings with the SEC. I will now turn the call over to Ben. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, Paul and good morning. Today I'm going to provide a business update and discuss our recent legislative efforts in Minnesota and Texas. Later, Teresa will provide more detail on some of our recent regulatory decisions and financial drivers. We reported $0.39 for the quarter, flat with last year. Overall, we've had a solid first half of 2015, with results generally in line with our expectations. While we've had some challenges from lower than expected sales, unfavorable weather and additional adjustments from the Monticello proceeding, we fully expect to deliver 2015 ongoing earnings within our guidance range of $2 to $2.15 per share. I want to start by saying how pleased I am with the company's response to recent storms across our Minnesota and Wisconsin…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And we'll take our first question from Michael Weinstein with UBS.

Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning.

Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Hi. Considering the legislation in Texas and the legislation in Minnesota and you are now very confident of increasing or reducing the regulatory lag by 50 bps by 2018, just wondering if, at what point would you consider increasing your long-term growth rate commensurate with the improvement in ROEs? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I think that's what we're focused on is closing that gap. And if we close that gap by 50 basis points that will get us on the upper end of those growth objectives. So you'd have to start to exceed that and see some other things before we would be comfortable doing that Michael.

Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Would you say that it would require a, I guess, wait and see after the results of a rate filing in Texas? Is that...? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: We need to implement it. We are working the plan. This is the legislation. While it wasn't essential to close that gap, it's certainly helpful. And now we need to execute on that and let things play out.

Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: You are welcome.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Travis Miller with Morningstar. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hey, Travis.

Travis Miller - Morningstar Research

Analyst

Good morning. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hi, Travis.

Travis Miller - Morningstar Research

Analyst

Hi, thanks. On the Minnesota legislation, just wonder if you could lay out maybe a more detailed timeline in terms of – I know it's obviously one of your lower spreads on – a wider spread between allowed and earned right now. How do you go about closing that, sort of taking advantage of the legislative items? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, you are absolutely right. We have been under-earning in Minnesota. If you are looking at the charts by the way that were attached, keep in mind that that's a little bit distorted due to some revenue recognition. But you are right; it's been in the mid-8s and we need to improve that. Take a look at what we did in Colorado. When you get into a multi-year plan, I think you've got a much better shot at closing that ROE gap. You are getting all of your capital recovery; you are getting your O&M potentially recovered and I think Travis, the other thing that I think is so important about entering into these multi-year plans is it gives you an opportunity to communicate more frequently with your commissions around important policy decisions, resource plans decisions, where we want to go with our portfolio generation et cetera. So you don't get disconnects. And I think if you look at why we've under-earned, we've had a lot of CapEx going through a funnel. We had to relicense our nuclear plants. We had some challenges there as everyone in the industry did. And we didn't have a lot of forums to communicate some of those challenges. So it's not only the mechanisms associated with the legislation in the multi-year plan; it's kind of what that frees you up to do. And I am optimistic that we will make good progress next year and in the years to come.

Travis Miller - Morningstar Research

Analyst

Okay, great. Do you think this is something you could do in one cycle for your multi-year plan or is this closing up the gap, would that take two rate cases or two cycles? Is this something that you can close quickly? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, the multi-year plan, as you know the legislation allows for up to five years and allows a number of other things. The regulatory team is busy right now assessing how we put those tools to work, what alternatives we want to present to the department and ultimately the commission and we'll figure out – we'll use the tools that we can and do it in a pragmatic approach. Now, depending on how you structure that, do you get it all in one year? – Not necessarily. But do you get it over the timeframe of the filing? – Yes. That would be the plan.

Travis Miller - Morningstar Research

Analyst

Great, thanks so much. Appreciate it. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Paul Ridzon with KeyBanc. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hi, Paul.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Good morning, Ben. Good morning, Teresa. Have you indicated when you are going to re-file in New Mexico? Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: We have just indicated that we will re-file before the end of the year.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

It seems as though the commission has kind of said we want a do-over with PNM. How does that play into the timing? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I mean – are you talking about the appeal or – I mean right now the commission has taken the rule back and is trying to I guess maybe understand their own interpretation of the rules. So we recognize that there might be some time lag with that, Paul. So we will re-file a case that we think will meet their current interpretation of the rules by year end, so we can get to start it while we are trying to sort through what the future test year rule and legislation really means from a administrative standpoint. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Right. I mean, we obviously think that the legislation allows for the forward tester as we had previously interpreted and that's why we are filed with the Supreme Court in terms of an appeal.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Did I answer your question Paul?

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Yes, you did. Thank you. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Okay.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

And where – you kind of walked down the growth numbers. Where are you seeing the most weakness? Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Seeing the most what?

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Weakness. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I mean – and Teresa, jump in here, but it's really been on the residential side. And we are seeing good growth, Paul; we are seeing about 1% customer growth but what's happening we believe is you've got energy efficiency – some of that we are driving of course. And you have – where we are thinking some of the growth is, is in more multi-unit dwellings which inherently use less electricity. So those two factors combined are putting – or offsetting growth with lower usage per household. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Right. I mean, just to supplement that in the multi-units, we think they use about 50% what a standard, stand-alone dwelling or home would use. So you get the customer growth, but just not at the same pace in terms of adding to our growth.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Have you seen efficiency start to plateau with I guess a lot of the light bulbs already been switched out and a lot of the appliances have been switched out? Where are we in that cycle? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: You know that's a really good question, Paul. I mean I think if you look at technology, it's going to continue to get more efficient. Will the pace of that efficiency slow down? – I don't know if I have a crisp answer for you at this point. But I wouldn't think that it's going to plateau and just level off. I think you're going to continue to see more efficiencies; you're going to continue to start to see – as we get to the, ultimately the Internet of Things, even more efficiency. I think we are a few years away from that. But the gas business has been a long-term efficiency cycle and I think we will see that on the electric side. And that's not necessarily a bad thing. It does mean though, back to the earlier comment that we have to start rethinking rate design and what the 21st century regulatory compact and offerings to our consumers look like. That's one of the reasons again, why we think it's so important to have longer-term regulatory compact, so you can have these dialogues with your policymakers.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you very much for your time. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Welcome.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Anthony Crowdell with Jefferies.

Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies.

Hey, good morning. I just wanted to focus on Minnesota. You're successful at getting a legislation for potentially a five-year deal, but I think previously I think you had the ability to file for three-year deals but I think maybe you filed for two. Is there reluctance on the regulator for granting a longer-term deal? Some states, you see regulators push back on longer-term deals. I wonder what's your feeling or view of that in Minnesota. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, keep in mind that prior to this legislation, the multi-year compact was not really comprehensive. So when we filed, we were able to file for larger step-in type capital programs. This legislation was passed with input from a lot of important parties, including the Department and certainly the Governor's office and it was passed and it was supported. That said, I think to your point, this could be transformative, it's change, and I think our team has to work with the department and make sure that they're comfortable with the pace of what we are doing. So that's what we are trying to assess right now. So your question is a good one. I think the policymakers support it. I think there is a number of reasons why the business community would want this and it's good for our customers and this could be tremendously more efficient than how we process rate cases today. So I am optimistic we are going to use the majority of those tools and come out with something far more comprehensive than we had prior to this legislation.

Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies.

And I guess on your next filing you would file, you would attempt to get the full five years? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, we're going to incorporate a number of the tools. We'll figure out – I mean, I would anticipate that we will look at the five years, figure out how that could be done, but I also anticipate that we'll present the Commission with different alternatives. The key is, get something comprehensive, make use of the tools, and close that regulatory gap. So that is always the first and foremost in mind. And again, we want something that frees up space to have a timeframe that we can work with the Commission on other important policy decisions.

Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies.

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

And we will take our next question from David Paz with Wolfe Research.

David A. Paz - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Hey, good morning. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hey, David. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hey, David.

David A. Paz - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Just on Minnesota filing, when would you expect a final decision? On the November filing. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: The pending case that we haven't filed yet?

David A. Paz - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Sorry, yes. On the November filing. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: It could take either late in 2016, it could – depending on the schedule, other cases that we know are going to be filed, we could go into 2017. But I think the key thing that's important is we have interim rates and we are anticipating that those will start just as they always have. I mean, that's still part of the new compact that we have starting in January 1, 2016. So I think that's really the key thing to be focused on.

David A. Paz - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Great. Okay. And separately, did you update your capital plan for the Courtenay Wind Farm? Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: We haven't updated it yet; we plan later this year. I mean, we'll do a more comprehensive update. I mean, we have disclosed the cost is about $300 million and so – again, we'll do a more comprehensive look later this year. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: And that project's moving along very well, so... Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: David, we expect that the Commission is going to probably rule on – the Commission in North Dakota and in Minnesota will rule on that in August. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Right.

David A. Paz - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Okay, great. And then just last, I think your projected rate base growth over the period you've outlined is just shy of 5%. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Right. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: That's correct.

David A. Paz - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

And so it looks like Courtenay will be added. Any other potential upside to that growth? I know previously you just said that you guys will do a new look soon. But anything we should think about? I mean you mentioned gas rate base, other type of renewable. Just anything else that we might be missing, particularly as carbon rules get at some point finalized? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes, I mean, we're going to look at all of those opportunities you mentioned. They are not included in the CapEx forecast right now. Maybe there's more opportunities for Courtney Wind type projects, the Calpine projects that we have done in the past. We've got a great backyard and I think there is a number of opportunities that we think makes sense and are keeping with our low-risk profile that we're going to pursue. We're conservative; we're not going to increase our forecast for things that aren't – that you can't touch. But we're certainly going to go after all the opportunities that makes sense for us. And you hit on a couple of them.

David A. Paz - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Okay, great. Thank you. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Feliks Kerman with Visium Asset Management.

Feliks Kerman - Visium Asset Management

Analyst · Visium Asset Management.

Hi, thank you. Can you just remind us in which states you'll have decoupling in, in 2016? Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: We will have it in Minnesota. There is an open docket in Colorado, but it has not been acted on for quite some time. But for sure, we will have it in Minnesota.

Feliks Kerman - Visium Asset Management

Analyst · Visium Asset Management.

And is there expectation that we will achieve the decoupling in Colorado or no? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I would think – we're under a multi-year plan there, so, no, we don't anticipate that we're going to have decoupling during this – the current multi-year plan that we have. That said, as you know that we've actually exceeded our authorized return in Colorado. So I think barring some major drop-off, there is no reason to really be concerned in Colorado. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I agree.

Feliks Kerman - Visium Asset Management

Analyst · Visium Asset Management.

Okay. Thank you. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

And that does conclude our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Teresa Madden, Chief Financial Officer, for any additional or closing remarks. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, thank you all for participating in our earnings call this morning and please contact Paul Johnson and the IR team with any follow-up questions. Thanks again.

Paul A. Johnson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you, everyone.

Operator

Operator

And this does conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation.