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Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL)

Q1 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 30, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day and welcome to the Xcel Energy's First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I like to turn the conference over to Paul Johnson, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Paul A. Johnson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Good morning, and welcome to Xcel Energy's 2015 first quarter earnings release conference call. Joining me today are Ben Fowke, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Teresa Madden, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. In addition, we have other members of the management team in the room to answer questions. This morning, we will review our 2015 first quarter results, reaffirm earnings guidance for 2015 and update you on recent business and regulatory developments. Slides that accompany today's call are available on our webpage. In addition, we will post a video on our website of Teresa summarizing financial results later this morning. As a reminder, some of the comments during today's conference call may contain forward-looking information. Significant factors that could cause results to differ from those anticipated are described in our earnings release and our filings with the SEC. Today's press release refers to both ongoing and GAAP earnings. First quarter 2015 ongoing earnings were $0.46 per share, which exclude a charge of $0.16 per share following the decision by the Minnesota Commission in the Monticello nuclear prudence review. GAAP earnings for the first quarter were $0.30 per share. Management believes ongoing earnings, which removes the impact of charges related to the prudence review, provide a more meaningful comparison. As a result, the comments on today's call will focus on first quarter ongoing earnings of $0.46 per share. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ben. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, thank you, Paul, and good morning. Today, I'm going to provide a business update, review several recent regulatory outcomes, speak to you about our legislative efforts in Minnesota and Texas and discuss our recently-increased dividend growth objective. Teresa will provide more details on some of these items. We're beginning…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We'll go first to Ali Agha at SunTrust. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning, Ali. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hi, Ali.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Management

Hey. How are you? First off, just to clarify a little bit on Minnesota, Ben or Teresa. So, when we factor in the rate case, and that was just completed, does that make a dent as far as your lag in 2015 is concerned? (19:36) an appreciable improvement in earned ROE this year, or not, versus 2014? Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Ali, we're going to be pretty consistent where we've been at kind of in the mid-8%s, maybe a little bit higher than that, but it'll be pretty consistent with where we have been at.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Management

I see. And then, from – just to understand the timing, when would you expect the legislative actions to be completed? And then, how does that relate to the timing of when you would make your next rate case filing there? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Unless it goes to extended session, it wraps up in May. And obviously, we've talked about filing a 2016 rate case, Ali. So, we'll see what actually is passed, and then we'll incorporate that into our thoughts going forward. To your former point, I think ,closing the regulatory gap, this 2016 case will be where you'll start to see that improvement – and that's what we've thought all along. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Just to – in terms of timing, Ali, we would expect to be filing right around the November 1 timeframe, so that interim rates for 2016 would go into effect at the first of that year.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Management

Yeah. And then, a bigger picture on this lag issue, as you reiterate, the goal is a 50 basis point reduction in lag by 2018. And can you remind us, embedded in the 2015 guidance, what is the total lag, in terms of a starting point we should be thinking about? Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Ali, right now, our lag's running close to 100% (sic) [100 basis points] (21:12), but we're closing 50 basis points, and we expect the trajectory to be lower in the first years, and graduating up to the 2018 timeframe. So, only modest as an initial start.

Paul A. Johnson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Ali, that was 100 basis points.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Management

100 basis points. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: What did I say?

Paul A. Johnson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Percent. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I said 100%?

Paul A. Johnson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Yeah. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: That would be bad. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah, that would be bad.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Management

And my last question. I know that you don't have any equity plans over the five-year CapEx cycle. And so, when you talk about the earnings CAGR, I believe it's 4% to 6% over that five-year period, from the normalized 2014 base. And the rate base CAGR over that five-year period is 4.7%. Am I correct in those numbers? Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well maybe, Ali, just to clarify, we do have some equity issuances through our DRIP and our benefit plans and that's about $75 million a year. But you're correct about the rate base. If we add Courtenay and we're probably just slightly under 5%, in terms of that, and growth continues at 4% to 6% in terms of earnings projection.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Management

Got it. Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Greg Gordon at Evercore ISI. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hi, Greg.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Management

Thanks. Good morning. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hey, Greg.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Management

So, the things that are happening in the short run here are the filings for the approval of the wind farm. Do you know what the – is there a statutory timeframe under which you expect to get a decision from those two jurisdictions? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I don't think there's a statutory timeframe, but there's a practical timeframe and we would need to get the decision so that we can meet the construction cycle by late summer.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Management

Okay. Late summer. And then, the legislative session, you indicated, already ends end of May. And then, what is the – what do we have to look forward to in terms of milestones with regard to your seeking to potentially rate base gas reserves? And if you were to get a program equal to your aspirations out of the gate, how would that be – what will you be looking that in terms of size and investment? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I think there's a lot of unknowns around that, Greg, to be frank with you. And like we said, I mean, what we're trying to do is set up the discussions in Colorado. Focus then on the LDC gas business, get some consensus around that and then potentially move forward in 2016. The size and all of that will be based upon those dialogs that we hope to have.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Management

Okay. But you're starting with the concept of procuring reserves for retail supply to the LDC business, not procuring reserves for power generation fuel? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Management

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: You're welcome, Greg.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hey, Julien.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Good morning. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hey, Julien.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

So, perhaps, the first quick question going back to Minnesota legislation. When you think about the time period that you could stay out and implementing it, in theory, in this 2016 case, what would you be – what kind of period are we talking about as best you understand it? And then – and perhaps a more relevant question here. If you don't get the legislation by the end of May or what have you, as you think about the 2016 case, is there any potential to have a multiyear stay out under any variety of the scenarios that would exclude legislation? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. Well, Julien, we had a path to stay out of 2016, but it was going to be based upon how we handled certain depreciation reserves. And so, when that opportunity was not taken, it put us in a position, as you know, that we are going to file the 2016 case. Now, we have mitigation tools still available to us. If the legislation pass, we might have more tools, longer timeframes that we can do. But even if the legislation doesn't pass, we are going to follow a multiyear plan in 2016. And when we look at our spend profile and our recovery needs, I think the longer the plan is, the more modulation and mitigation we can use for the benefit of our customers and for clarity for us. So, I think we've got a pretty solid path to start to close that regulatory lag. It's been really pronounced in Minnesota. Legislation will help, but the traditional way to file a rate case, although laborious, also works.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

And perhaps, I know this is very tough to ask. But how do you think about collapsing the rate lag, just organically given smaller rate case prospectively in 2016? I mean, how much of the improvement here is simply, again, just another filing with a more modest ask and having some of those mitigation tools versus having a legislation in hand and leveraging some of those tools that enables you? I mean, what kind of delta are we talking about? And I know that's putting a lot (26:44). Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Pretty hard to quantify that, I would say. I mean, let me just say that the majority of the ask in 2016, whether we use legislative initiatives or what we have available to use now, is going to be capital driven. So, Julien, I think that always helps. Capital is always less controversial than O&M. The advantage, though, of a longer timeframe is that we have more opportunities to sculpt the capital to – and the mitigation tools to take advantage of the fact that the pace of investment does start to slow down. And again, what we've talked about before is that we really need to have longer timeframes where we're not in front of the regulator, look to just kind of proceeding trying to get rate relief, because there is a lot of policy discussions that we want to have and, frankly, I think our Commission wants to have with us. But we can't do that right now. So, that was the disappointment really of having to follow 2016 case, as there is a lot going on and it kind of makes it harder to have those dialogs. But the dialogs will happen. So, did I answer your question, hopefully?

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

As best you could, I appreciate it. And then, maybe in separate direction here... Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: That means no.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

It's a little bit easier. A little bit more palatable. Can you comment around SPS and, just generally speaking, the environment to-date in terms of the commodity impact, et cetera? What are you seeing prospectively in terms of capital need? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: In SPS, is that what you're asking?

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Yeah, just given the lower oil price environment. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: It really hasn't had much of an impact at all. The Permian Basin is a good place from an economic standpoint. We understand that there is more supply chain initiatives from the developers squeezing out more cost. But the other thing – and I think that's very important to recognize – is that we had a tremendous backlog. So, you've got well – we've got the majority of the wells that stood on – are still running on very expensive diesel and things like that. So, there is a lot of backlog. It gives us time to catch up. Ultimately, I think prices will rebound it a bit. But I think we're in pretty good shape there. And the other thing that's happening is, in that area of the country, there is other economic activity as well. So, still going pretty strong and the sales growth expectations down in that region are pretty strong and we think will continue to be so.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

All right. Great. Thank you, guys. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Travis Miller with Morningstar.

Travis Miller - Morningstar Research

Management

Good morning. Thank you. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hey, Travis. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hey, Travis.

Travis Miller - Morningstar Research

Management

Hi. Wondering as you went through the 2014-2015 rate stuff in Minnesota, were there lessons learned through that whole process that you expect to embed in the 2016 case? Anything that you might have asked before that you won't ask for now, any adjustments that you'll make based on those negotiations, absent the legislation and that whole side of it? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I guess it reaffirmed to us that we need to change the regulatory process. That's why we're seeking the legislation. It doesn't allow us to have the dialogs, Travis, that we mentioned. We need – it's a new world. Our policymakers want us to do more and, frankly, we are doing more. We filed, I think, a very transformational resource plan at the end of last year. We're going to move forward and be very aggressive on renewables. We want to make sure we do that with efficiency in mind, using large-scale renewables. It's tough to do that, as I mentioned, in the rate case. I guess specifically, we need to – we probably self-mitigated a little bit as we filed that rate case, recognizing that it was a big ask. And that puts – those things we didn't ask for will just resurface in 2016, and we'll ask for what we need. And as I mentioned, it's capital-based. These are investments that I think everybody wants us to make. So, we've got to update the regulatory compact in keeping with the times. And I think that's what the e21 Initiative was about, and we're proposing how we implement that in Minnesota. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Maybe just to add to that, and I think you touched on it, Ben. I mean one thing that was definitely reconfirmed was the tolerance for the customer bill... Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And the legislation clearly will have – assuming it goes forward – have parameters that will help us, in terms of the longer term, to manage through that, with the capital investment that Ben mentioned. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. And just – you need more tools, you need to have different kinds of dialogs, and that's what we would get with legislation. But we can do it the old fashioned way too. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Just not as efficient.

Travis Miller - Morningstar Research

Management

Okay. Great. And then, what's your latest thinking on competitive transmission? Any project you're looking at out there, any – is that at all part of the growth strategy still? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: We don't – as you know, we haven't assumed – what we have in our transmission CapEx is – it's state-regulated, and it's identified. It's not pie in the sky. So, we don't have competitive transmission. But there are – but the opportunities are fewer, as you know, than what, I think, people were talking about a year ago. But there's some opportunities, and we're looking at a relatively small opportunity in MISOs, and potentially some smaller opportunities in SPP, which I think will give us a chance to understand how competitive bidding will work. Relatively small right now. I think, as the EPA rules get clarified and both SPP and MISO refine their projects, or refine the needs, we'll have more opportunities to bid competitively. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. We still think it'll be there, it's just delayed a bit. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. Exactly, Teresa.

Travis Miller - Morningstar Research

Management

Okay. Thanks a lot. Appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Angie Storozynski of Macquarie. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hello, Angie. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hi, Angie. Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Hello. How are you? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good. Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: I just want to go back again to this Minnesota legislation. I mean we've been following it, and so here are a couple of concerns that we have. First of all, it seems like the legislature is split in Minnesota. And so, why do you feel convinced or hopeful that both House and the Senate can agree on the version of a bill that will actually include those multiyear rate cases? And more importantly, so we had this issue in Colorado already, that the regulators then didn't necessarily think that the new law is really binding, it's more of a suggestion. So, how likely is it that we do get a bill, and then the regulators in Minnesota think that it's still an option for them to pursue or not, and then we may end up in yet another rate case? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, couple questions that you asked. First of all, as we all know, sausage making and the political process can be kind of messy. And that's what we are in. But what we're being told, and what we understand is, while there is controversy between the House and Senate bill, and that's the difference between Republican versus DFL controlled, and their different interests, the multiyear plan provisions really aren't controversial. So, when this thing goes to Conference Committee, we think it's a very good possibility that the provisions of the multiyear plan remain. While you can only be cautiously optimistic, because it is a political process, and if there were things in the final bill that was passed by both House and Senate that were unappealing to the Governor, you always have a risk of veto. So, that's the reality there. In terms of whether it will be viewed by the Commission as an option versus a mandate, I think, one, you'd have to look and see how the legislation is finalized. But I also believe that the Commission is frustrated with how the process works in Minnesota to sell (35:30). So, I think you kind of saw that as the Commission was thinking about the opportunity that we said to stay out of 2016. And I'm not sure that they felt they were – it was quite ready. And so, with legislation, even if it's an option versus a mandate, I think, they feel much more comfortable with that. We have Chris Clark here, I don't know if, Chris, you want to add to that?

Christopher B. Clark - President, Northern States Power Company - Minnesota, Xcel Energy, Inc.

Management

I'd agree with that. I think that Commissioners have been interested in engaging in that dialog you talked about earlier Ben. And so, I think the legislation will be viewed as tool that helped to enable that. Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: And then, I mean maybe it's just my understanding of the House version of the bill. Is that – you would still need to file rate cases according to this bill, right? I mean, maybe not as frequently, but the rate cases would still not be avoided? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I think you would file the base year (36:28), right? I mean – and then – but you'd have a much longer runway that you could then use to have more formulaic recovery of your capital spend and your O&M. Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: How about the ROEs resetting? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: That's not really addressed. So, maybe that would come through if there was a change of circumstance or something like that. But I'm starting to speculate now, Angie. Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Okay. I'm sorry about it. Okay. Thank you. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Paul Ridzon at KeyBanc.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Management

Good morning. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hi, Paul. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hey, Paul.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Management

Are you looking at gas reserves for rate base in any other states besides Colorado, have you started any dialogs yet? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: No, we haven't. So, we're starting with Colorado. That's the biggest gas use, and we'll move forward from there.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Management

Is that something you'll consider. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. Yeah. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Sure. Yeah. Sure.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Management

Okay. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: We'll consider it. We don't have as much of a gas load, for example, in Minnesota. In Texas, I think some of our larger C&I customers probably would not want us to do that. So, those are factors we'd have to consider, Paul.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Management

Okay. And then Courtenay, what's the status of Courtenay and is it going to get the PTC? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes. That would be the plan, which is why we're on a tighter construction schedule, because it needs to come and service at the end of 2016. But it would be eligible for the PTC credits. And Paul, it's a great project. I mean, it's – the levelized cost of it is way below what we could basically acquire natural gas reserves for. So, it's kind of an indirect way to hedge gas.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Management

And you said that was 200-megawatts for $300 million of capital? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. And just to add to Ben's comment, our target is to have the project done by October of next year. So, we do have a little headroom just in terms of the PTC completion requirement ending at the end of 2016. So, we do have a schedule we need to follow closely. But we do think we have some headroom.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Management

And where is that from? Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: In North Dakota.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Management

North Dakota. Thank you very much. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Paul. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks, Paul.

Operator

Operator

Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, hearing none, thank you all for participating in our earnings call this morning. Please contact Paul Johnson and the IR team with any follow-up questions. And thanks, everyone. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you. Teresa S. Madden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

And that does conclude today's conference. Again, thank you for your participation.