Earnings Labs

Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)

Q3 2016 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 28, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Ginger, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Weyerhaeuser's Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Ms. Beth Baum, Director of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

Elizabeth Baum

Analyst

Thank you, Ginger. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today to discuss Weyerhaeuser's third quarter 2016 earnings. This call is being webcast at www.weyerhaeuser.com. Our earnings release and presentation materials can also be found on our website. Please review the warning statements in our press release and on the presentation slides concerning the risks associated with forward-looking statements, as forward-looking statements will be made during this conference call. We will discuss non-GAAP financial measures, and a reconciliation to GAAP can be found in the earnings material on our website. On the call this morning are Doyle Simons, Chief Executive Officer; and Russell Hagen, Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Doyle Simons.

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Thank you, Beth, and welcome, everyone. This morning, Weyerhaeuser reported third quarter net earnings of $227 million or $0.30 per diluted share on net sales of $1.7 billion. Our third quarter results include after tax earnings of $65 million from discontinued operations and $10 million of after tax charges for merger related expenses. Excluding these items, we earned $172 million or $0.23 per diluted share. This is an improvement of over 30% compared with second quarter and over 40% compared with a year ago. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA totaled $434 million, an improvement of $21 million compared with the second quarter. Our employees delivered strong performance in the quarter, as operating results improved across each of our businesses with Timberlands driving increased EBITDA through merger synergies and Wood Products achieving its highest third quarter earnings in 12 years. However, these results reflect only some of our quarterly achievements as we also closed the sale of our liquid packaging board business, completed the move to our new corporate headquarters in Seattle and completed our commitment to a $2 billion accelerated share repurchase. I'm proud of what our teams accomplished and the pace at which they continue to operate as we work together to be the world's premier timber, land and forest products company. Before turning to our business results, let me make a few brief comments regarding the housing market. Third quarter housing activity was roughly in line with our expectations and we are anticipating nearly 1.2 million housing starts for 2016 in line with consensus estimate. Although total housing starts for September were weaker than expected, the headline number was driven by the volatile multi-family sector. Single-family starts have continued to grow at a favorable pace. Through September, single-family starts are up approximately 10% compared with 2015 on a seasonally…

Russell Hagen

Analyst

Thank you, Doyle, and good morning. The outlook for the fourth quarter is presented in chart 14 of the earnings slides. In our Timberlands business, we expect fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA will increase slightly over the third quarter. In our Western Timberland operations, we anticipate harvest volumes will be lower than third quarter levels. However, we expect sales realizations will increase modestly in each of our export markets as housing activity remains strong in Japan and Chinese demand remains solid. Domestic log sales volumes are expected to be comparable to the third quarter. We anticipate domestic sales realizations will increase slightly in the fourth quarter, as a result of steady domestic demand and seasonally lower available log supply. Western logging costs will continue to benefit from the results of our operational excellence initiatives. Southern harvest volumes are expected to be slightly higher than third quarter. Minerals have adequate log inventories entering the fourth quarter and average sales realizations are expected to be flat quarter-over-quarter. Silviculture and road spending will be seasonally lower in the South during the fourth quarter. In the North, fourth quarter harvest volumes will decrease seasonally from third quarter levels, as third quarter is typically the best operating quarter of the year. Real Estate and Energy and Natural Resources earnings for the fourth quarter are expected to be slightly higher than the third quarter, while adjusted EBITDA will be about double from third quarter results. It is important to note that the real estate sales include a mix of legacy Weyerhaeuser properties and Plum Creek properties. And that the Plum Creek properties have proportionally higher basis, because they were marked to fair value in the purchase price allocation. This results in lower earnings when these properties are sold. For Wood Products, we expect lower demand due to…

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Thank you, Russell. I'll wrap up with some brief comments on merger synergies and integration. We continue to implement the changes necessary to achieve our $100 million hard dollar cost synergy target. As of the end of the third quarter, we have achieved about two-thirds of these reductions on a run rate basis. I'm highly confident, we will meet or exceed our $100 million run rate cost synergy target by the end of year one. We've also fully identified the sources of reductions for the $35 million of costs formally allocated to Cellulose Fibers and are on track to eliminate these costs within one year of closing the International Paper transaction. The integration with Plum Creek continues to progress well. Working together will be the foundation of our success and I'm encouraged by the team work I see within and between the businesses and functions of our merged company. I'm excited by what we've achieved and where we're going, and I look forward to continuing to share our successes with you as we work together to drive value for shareholders, through a focused portfolio, industry leading performance and disciplined capital allocation. And now with that, I'd like to open the floor for questions. [Operator Instructions]

Operator

Operator

Your first question comes from Anthony Pettinari from Citi.

Anthony Pettinari

Analyst

Hi. Good morning.

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Good morning, Anthony.

Anthony Pettinari

Analyst

Doyle, I had a question on the Softwood Lumber Agreement, earlier this year there seemed to be some optimism – a new agreement would be negotiated. And over the past couple of weeks we've had U.S. legislators and the Canadians issuing statements, saying the other side isn't serious. I was wondering if you were surprised by the lack of an agreement at this point and kind of where we stand here, and with the exploration of the standstill period, I guess the U.S. Lumber Coalition has talked about initiating trade cases and to the extent that you're able, I was wondering if you could give us any thoughts on that process.

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Yes, Anthony as we previously said, we're very actively involved with and fully supported of the U.S. Coalition, and frankly, we would prefer the certainty of a negotiated agreement and hopeful that one will be reached. And as you mentioned, the governments are having ongoing negotiations and those are pretty fluid right now. With that said, as we've said consistently, any agreement would need to be consistent with the objective identified in the Obama-Trudeau joint statement, which is to maintain Canadian exports at or below an agreed U.S. market share to be negotiated. So, where we are now, I think is ongoing negotiations, but if no agreement is reached, we would expect a petition will be filed soon and then, we'll see how it plays out from that point forward. So, that's kind of where we are in the approach we're taking.

Anthony Pettinari

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And then, just switching gears to Wood Products. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the pricing environment in engineered Wood Products? I think there were some price initiatives on the table earlier this year, and in 3Q, prices seem to be flattish to maybe down a little bit. I was wondering if you could just talk about the forces that are impacting that market and kind of outlook for 4Q?

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Yeah. So, there are a lot of moving pieces in the pricing for EWP currently. To get to your second part of your question, we anticipate EWP prices will be essentially flat in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter. Regarding the price increase, the price increase that went into place within the West in the second quarter and third quarter that was successful, but was offset by some pricing pressure in the East. As you know, Anthony, there's been a lot of dealer consolidation in the Eastern markets and a lot of jacking around has occurred in those markets. So, up in the West, down in the East, which has resulted in the net pricing that we saw in the third quarter, we think that's stabilized and anticipate essentially flat prices in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter.

Anthony Pettinari

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. I'll turn it over.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Brian Maguire from Goldman Sachs.

Brian Maguire

Analyst

Hey. Good morning, everyone.

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Good morning, Brian.

Brian Maguire

Analyst

Just wanted to follow-up on the Wood Products, obviously a really strong quarter, like you highlighted in the prepared remarks [indiscernible] year-on-year. But it seemed like it could have been maybe even a little bit better if lumber margins had been closer to where they were in 2Q. And I know you mentioned maybe some downtime and weather-related issues. But just wondering if you could dig into that a little bit more and talk about the margins in lumber and where they might be headed from here?

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Yes, so I think, there were three things that impacted our lumber results in the third quarter versus the second quarter. And as you mentioned we had a strong second quarter in lumber, but three things in the third quarter. One was we had slightly lower sales volume. Two, as you mentioned, lower operating rates that was due to weather and some downtime for installation of some capital projects as we continue to invest capital in that business to drive down our overall cost structure. And then third and the most surprising one for us that log cost increased in Canada, that was weather-related, and as you may know Canada has been very wet this year and as a result having to spend additional dollars to get wood to the mills, so that had an impact. And then also we had higher log cost in the West, that's consistent with what we reported in our Timberlands operation. So those both higher log costs in Canada and the West impacted our margins and results in the third quarter versus the second quarter. Going forward, we would anticipate as we said, lumber prices in the fourth quarter to be essentially flat to maybe down just a little bit in fourth quarter versus third quarter.

Brian Maguire

Analyst

Okay. Great. And then just a follow up one on the Real Estate segment in the fourth quarter. I know you said, you'll be about double in the EBITDA. Is that the start of maybe a trend higher here as you're getting through the process of evaluating everything, can we start to think about it being somewhere closer to that neighborhood and where you've been historically or is there just some lumpiness in it and then we're kind of back to lower levels in 2017?

Russell Hagen

Analyst

Brian, this is Russell. On the Real Estate as we mentioned, we expect fourth quarter to be double the third quarter, and then we would expect that trend to continue as we work into 2017, and work through our AVO process, and really start bringing some of the Weyerhaeuser properties in through the Real Estate program. So as we've indicated, our target for the Real Estate and Energy and Natural Resource business is at 15% of total EBITDA, and so I would expect that in 2017, we will start moving towards that target.

Brian Maguire

Analyst

Okay. Thanks very much.

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the George Staphos from Bank of America Merrill.

George Staphos

Analyst

Hi, everyone, good morning. Thanks for the details. I want to...

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Good morning, George.

George Staphos

Analyst

How are you doing, Doyle? I wanted to dig into Wood Products a bit further. Can you comment at all – maybe provide a few more details in terms of where you stand with being – as you've termed to black at the bottom, I know we'll get more color probably in December on this, but what other initiatives do have going on or where you stand in terms of the – are you – you're certainly not a 100% done, but where you stand in terms of being done on that project? And the related question was on operational excellence you said, as you were talking about Wood, if I heard you correctly that you're generally on track, now that's fine. But I kind of took your comments, as maybe there were some areas that weren't progressing quite as well as you'd like, if that was a correct assessment, where do you need to see some accelerated pick up? And then I had a couple of follow-ons either way.

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Okay. So, George, to your point, we will be talking about both of those issues extensively in our December investor presentation, which we're looking forward to. But let me give you a sense on both of those. In terms of black at the bottom, as you know and we've talked about consistently over the past two years to three years, that has been our focus, in terms of our operational excellence initiatives, driving down our cost, the capital that we're spending, and we've made a lot of progress on that front. As you said, we're not there yet. But I would say, we're 60% to 70% of where we need to be, maybe even a little more than that in terms of getting our cost structure where we're black at the bottom. And as we've said before, what we measure that against is what happened back during the recession in the 2007, 2008, 2009 type timeframe. So, a lot of progress made there, more work to do. In terms of generally on track, George, I wouldn't over focused on the, generally. I would say, we are on track, in terms of our OpEx initiatives, still I guess, three months left in the year. So, didn't want get up over our sleeves, but again, we will give you a report on that in December but – and very pleased at the progress we're making in our Wood Products operation and frankly also in our Timberland operation, in terms of delivering against our OpEx targets for 2016.

George Staphos

Analyst

All right. Thanks for that, Doyle. Two last ones and I'll turn it over. As we think about value return and the dividend, certainly the company has done a very, very good job of returning value to shareholders over the last couple of years, so this is not a complaint. As we think forward for the dividend, should we more or less think about it trending with the realizations that you can get in Timberland, in terms of what drives the next level of – if there's anything left for that matter of a sustainable pickup in the dividend growth rate? And then, just Russell, on the term loan, should we expect that you will be paying that down pretty quickly from here on a going forward basis? Thanks, guys, and good luck on the quarter.

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Thanks for those questions, George, and I'll address the dividend increase and then, I'll ask Russell to answer the term loan question. So, in terms of the dividend, again as we've said it consistently, we are committed to a growing and sustainable dividend. 2006 is a very noisy year, as we all know as we do these various transactions, but looking into 2017 as we think about it, we're going to benefit from our cost – continue to benefit from our cost and operational synergies, continued OpEx improvements and what we believe will be stronger housing markets. To your point, we're also going to benefit from a portfolio perspective, from a much more stable earnings streams for Timberland. And as we just talked about improvements made in Wood Products cost structure to eliminate some of the downside. So with all that said, we'll be working very closely with our board to determine the right level of dividend going forward. And Russell, if you'll address the term loan question.

Russell Hagen

Analyst

George, as I mentioned, we have $1.7 billion drawn on the term loan as we start closing on the Cellulose Fibers transactions, we'll start paying that down, so we would expect that to be paid down hopefully by year-end or soon around that time.

George Staphos

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Chip Dillon from Vertical Research Partners.

Chip Dillon

Analyst

Yes. Good morning, Doyle and Russell.

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Good morning, Chip.

Russell Hagen

Analyst

Good morning.

Chip Dillon

Analyst

First question is, I might be mistaken, but I think you're earning maybe more than 100% of the cumulative profits in the engineered wood business, that's quite a turnaround. And I really seriously wanted to ask you about, with these kind of some numbers and looking at the rest of the industry and it looks like you're not necessarily transferring raw materials in low, so how are you doing it? Is it because of the distinctiveness of some of your products or would say that maybe it is being vertically integrated or maybe there is something else that we're missing?

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Yeah. I would not attribute it a much of it Chip to being vertically integrated. I would attribute it to all the things that we've been working on now for two years or three years starting to fall to the bottom line in terms of log recovery, controllable spend, preventive maintenance. Chip you've heard us talk ad nauseam about, it's the basic blocking and tackling. And I think, we're starting to see the benefit of that hitting the bottom line. And the other part of it, as you mentioned is kind of the products that we bring to market and the additional value that we give for some of those products. So I think it's a combination of both, but I think really the reason for the improvement that we've seen over the last two years or three years have primarily been driven by just basic blocking and tackling in that business.

Chip Dillon

Analyst

And I suppose, it's safe to say, it's no longer sort of in the category that you put it in when you had first Investor Meeting with us?

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Chip, I'm happy to say that it is no longer in that category. I think that business has proven the right, to be part of our portfolio on an ongoing basis. Now you constantly got to earn that right, but that business as you highlighted, and I appreciate you saying it, has made a dramatic turnaround in terms of bottom line performance.

Chip Dillon

Analyst

And then just a couple of quick ones and turning it over – before turning it over is, could you update on what you – and you might have mentioned this, what you see CapEx at this year? And I know it's early, but directionally where should it go next year? And then lastly for Russell, I know there is roughly a $600 million tax bill tied to the sale of the Cellulose business, does that tax actually get paid in cash sometime in 2017?

Russell Hagen

Analyst

So the first question on CapEx, as we've indicated, we're focused on about $425 million CapEx this year, a $125 million in Timberlands and $300 million in Wood Products. I think next year we expect around that general amount maybe just a little more in Timberlands as we bring in the combined Plum Creek and Weyerhaeuser properties. As far as the tax bill on CF, we would expect that to be paid hopefully again by year-end, but possibly in the first quarter.

Chip Dillon

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Gail Glazerman from Roe Equity Research.

Gail Glazerman

Analyst

Hi. Good morning.

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Good morning, Gail.

Gail Glazerman

Analyst

I assume this is baked into your guidance. But can you talk about any impact you had from Hurricane Matthew either in terms of your operating facilities or your timber operations?

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Yeah. So, yeah, we're fortunate, Gail, from the hurricane perspective that we had minimal damage to our Timberlands operations due to the hurricane a couple of days or maybe a little few more that we were kind of out of the woods in the Atlantic region, but very minimal damage. In terms of – from a Wood Products perspective, we had some production loss as you would expect at our Atlantic mills, we had some minor water damage to some finished lumber, but nothing that's [Technical Difficulty] (34:32) financially.

Gail Glazerman

Analyst

Okay. And going back to Softwood Lumber Agreement, can you just give a little bit of color on how it's affecting your conversations with customers, and how they may be preparing forward as they look out to the building season next year?

Doyle Simons

Analyst

I mean clearly, there's some uncertainty regarding the Softwood Lumber Agreement and how it plays out, Gail. But I wouldn't say it's affecting the way our customers are thinking about their ongoing business. And, in fact, customers continue to be – especially homebuilders continue to be very optimistic about the demand that's out there in terms of new home sales and just underlying demand for new houses. So, it's a minor part of our conversation, it's not a major part, but our customers continue to be optimistic for the balance of 2016 and into 2017.

Gail Glazerman

Analyst

Okay. And just one last one. Can you give any sort of color on the export markets, particularly maybe some of the competitive dynamics in terms of logs from Russia, and New Zealand, or even some finished Wood Products from Europe going into Japan, just what you're seeing, and how that's been trending?

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Yeah. So, let's talk about that, and bottom line is we're encouraged by what we see in the export market currently. From a Weyerhaeuser perspective, we anticipate that – from – in Japan, which as you know is our most important market, that pricing will be up in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter, due to steady demand and lower log supply that always happens in the fourth quarter. We think volume maybe down a little bit, but that's just going to be due to timing and the way the shipping worked. In China, we continue to see a solid demand, anticipate higher prices in China in the fourth quarter, and encouragingly inventories actually came down a little bit in third quarter versus the second quarter. They are currently at 3.38 million cubic meters, which is down from where they ended at the second quarter. In terms of just overall views on it, we've seen a slight increase in imports into China from Russia, but nothing significant, and New Zealand seems to have kind of stabilized. So, that's what we're seeing overall in export markets.

Gail Glazerman

Analyst

Okay. And in terms of European competition in Japan with finished goods?

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Yeah. So, that's the challenge that our customers face is Glulam that comes in from Europe, currencies have not been helpful from that perspective. But the good news in Japan is housing is growing 6%, 7%, 8%, and our customers continue to have very good demand for our Doug Fir which is used of course to build houses. And these solid logs or solid lumber is a preferred building material post and beam construction.

Gail Glazerman

Analyst

Thank you.

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Mark Wilde from BMO Capital Markets.

Mark Wilde

Analyst

Good morning, Doyle. Good morning, Russell.

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Good morning, Mark.

Mark Wilde

Analyst

Doyle, first question. It sounded from your comments like maybe the AVO process was going a little bit slower than expected. You said you expected to have it substantially done by the end of the first half of next year, I think initially we've been talking about it sort of by late this year, very early next year?

Doyle Simons

Analyst

No, Mark, I wouldn't say it's slipped. Our focus has been on the South. And as I said, we are in the process of wrapping that up. Currently, we're in the latter stages of it. We'll then be moving to the West, and it may take us into the second quarter to complete it in the West. But I would actually tell you it's going very well. Our biggest opportunities as we said all along are in the South, so we're pleased that we're wrapping that up. And as Russell mentioned, I think we're going to start to really see the benefit of that in early 2017, as we move forward with this process. So, I would categorize it is right on track.

Mark Wilde

Analyst

Okay. All right. That's helpful. And Doyle, can you give us a little bit more color, background on the Uruguay announcement? And then, if you were to dispose that, what you would likely do with the capital?

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Yeah. So Mark, as we previously mentioned, as part of this merger integration, we've been in a review of all 13-plus million acres of our timberland. As you know, Uruguay is a project that was started back from the ground-up back in the mid-1990s and is just now really coming into maturity. Our focus going forward is going to be primarily domestic and we think there may be an opportunity to position Uruguay with what I would call a more natural sponsor that maybe more focused on those markets going forward. In terms of what we'll do with the cash, as you would anticipate Mark, we'll run that through our capital allocation priorities as we do everything and figure out the best use of that cash to drive value for our shareholders long-term.

Mark Wilde

Analyst

All Right. And Doyle just if I could, the one other kind of block of land that seems like a little bit of an outlier is these kind of Northern Timberlands in New England, and the Great Lakes, they're not plantations. It's a little different business than what you have in the South or the West, any thoughts there?

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Mark, I would answer that this way and consistent with what we've said before. We're in the midst of a review of our overall timberland portfolio with 13-plus million acres that we now have, we have lots of flexibility as to how to create the most value for our shareholders, so we'll be factoring all that in, as we move forward.

Mark Wilde

Analyst

Okay. Last question I had Doyle is just, back on the SLA one more time. I am just curious, from your perspective it seems to me that we're likely to have a more protectionist administration, no matter who is elected come January. And I am just curious about whether you share that view? And whether you think that's having any effect on sort of the negotiations right now? In other words, are the Canadians perhaps more interested in getting something done with this administration rather than waiting to see what they get come January?

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Yeah. Mark, I would say, I don't think the election is currently having much effect on the negotiations. And in terms of predicting what in the hell may happen in this election or what the implications of that maybe is probably not somewhere that I should go or I'm qualified to go. So, we'll see how the election plays out, but we are encouraged, Mark, at this point about the negotiations that are going on between the government and we'll just have to wait and see how this plays forward?

Mark Wilde

Analyst

Okay. All right. Sounds good. Good luck in the fourth quarter and into next year guys.

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Thank you, Mark.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Mark Connelly from CLSA.

Mark Connelly

Analyst

Thank you. Doyle, two things. Obviously the step up in basis affects the real estate profit that you report. But it doesn't mean that the sales are any less attractive. Can you give us a sense of whether these were higher or lower than average quality sales?

Russell Hagen

Analyst

Mark, this is Russell. I think on the call, as we mentioned a lot of those transactions were in the Northern properties, it's not that they weren't lower quality, it's just lower price per acre than you would see in the West or in the South.

Mark Connelly

Analyst

Okay.

Doyle Simons

Analyst

But Mark, you're exactly right on your first comment that – yeah that doesn't mean they're not quality sales just because they were written up. So thank you for making that point, that's exactly right.

Mark Connelly

Analyst

Yeah. Russell, what I was really trying to get at is relative to what you do in the North, was this pretty typical stuff?

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Yes, I think those are typical transactions that you'd see in the North.

Mark Connelly

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And then just one simple question. How much of higher OSP prices that we saw in the quarter actually hit engineered Wood Products in the quarter? I'm just trying to get a sense of how fast that flows through.

Doyle Simons

Analyst

About $2 million impact in the quarter Mark.

Mark Connelly

Analyst

Perfect. That's all I need. Thank you very much.

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Collin Mings from Raymond James.

Collin Mings

Analyst

Good morning, Doyle. Good morning, Russell.

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Good morning, Collin.

Collin Mings

Analyst

I guess, just first one, just recognizing you're taking a pause right now, [indiscernible] Cellulose Fibers sale is being finalized. Just maybe update us on how you're thinking about the remaining $500 million under the share purchase reauthorization, again, especially here with the stock at 30 box or so, not too terribly different than kind of the average repurchase prices of $2 billion that you completed this year?

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Yeah, Collin as you'll recall when we announced the merger with Plum Creek, we said at that point in time that we were going to do $2 billion of the $2.5 billion on an accelerated basis. And as you just alluded to, we completed that actually in a little less than six months. We also said at that point in time, when we announced it, that subsequent to that, we would take a pause and work closely with our board to determine the timing of the additional $500 million, see where we were on our Cellulose Fibers transaction and a lot of other factors. So we're in that pause period, we will work closely with our board to determine what the timing is going to be on the additional amount. And as you alluded to, where our stock is trading, will be an important component of that decision.

Collin Mings

Analyst

Okay. And then just following up on the commentary as far as the outlook for Q4. Just on Timberlands, you indicated that it would be up modestly relatively to 3Q, but could it actually be higher year-over-year relative to 4Q 2015, or is it likely to fall somewhere in between?

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Yeah. I'd have to go back and look at the 4Q 2015 numbers because as you very well know, Collin there is lots of moving parts with 4Q of 2015. We didn't have Plum Creek as part of the company. So, we'll have to get back with you on exactly that. But what I would say, as we said in the guidance, we do think it will be up in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter, and a big driver of that, as I mentioned earlier is what we're seeing in export markets.

Collin Mings

Analyst

Okay. And then, just one last one from me. Just as you're budgeting for 2017 and given kind of the lack of momentum clearly in log pricing in the U.S. South this year. I mean just curious how you're thinking about shaping up harvest activity for next year again recognizing, you're not providing guidance on harvest volumes at this point. But just how does that factor in Doyle? This is as you've referred to before just a stubbornly low log pricing in the U.S. South as you think about harvest plans?

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Yeah. Well, we are working on our harvest plans right now, Collin. As we put the two companies together, we think we're going to have the opportunity to maximize the harvest plan on a go-forward basis. As part of that, we will factor in what we think is going to happen with Southern sawlog prices. We do remain convinced that we are going to reach the inflection point where Southern sawlog prices are no longer stubbornly low, but start to head in the right direction. We're encouraged by what we see, as I mentioned earlier about continued growth in housing, and are also encouraged by some of the announcements we've seen regarding additional capacity coming online in 2017 in the South. So all of that will be factored in and we'll be providing more color on that as we move forward.

Collin Mings

Analyst

All right. Thanks, Doyle. See you in December.

Doyle Simons

Analyst

All right. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Steve Chercover from Davidson.

Steven Chercover

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I was hoping you could recap the dissolution of the timber joint venture, if I'm not mistaken, the counterparty was The Campbell Group, and I think, you said the debt in the note will negate one another. But is there any kind of capital call? And then I had a second question.

Russell Hagen

Analyst

Sure. So this is Russell. As I mentioned, we did dissolve that at the end of August. And when we did that, if you recall that was 450,000 acres in six states, it was a joint venture with The Campbell Group. They redeemed their interest and so we received the note back, distributed to Timberlands. There is a small gain in recognition at about $6 million, but there is no additional capital calls and there is no continuing ongoing obligation.

Steven Chercover

Analyst

Okay. Well, that's good news. And then I thought – and hopefully this is just a red herring that the IRS was challenging the structure and there was some discussion or litigation with them?

Russell Hagen

Analyst

So you're correct. So our 2008 – Plum Creek's 2008 income tax return is currently being audited. And as you recall Plum Creek, we appealed that to the IRS but we could not reach a resolution. And so recently Weyerhaeuser filed a petition in the U.S. Tax Court and as you are aware this will take a number of years to resolve, but we remain confident that in our position, we do expect a favorable outcome from the U.S. Tax Court.

Steven Chercover

Analyst

And I assume that Weyerhaeuser didn't put out a filing because it's not material, but can you tell us in a worst case scenario what the financial impact might be?

Russell Hagen

Analyst

Yeah. We're not going to – we won't do that. But we will say, I'll reiterate, we're very confident in our position and expect we'll get a favorable outcome.

Steven Chercover

Analyst

Okay. And it does failed to meet the test of materiality I assume?

Russell Hagen

Analyst

We've not reserved anything related to this. Again we're very confident that we're going to succeed in this.

Steven Chercover

Analyst

Great. Thanks, Russell.

Russell Hagen

Analyst

You bet.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Mark Weintraub from Buckingham Research.

Mark Weintraub

Analyst

Thank you. A couple of follow-ons. First, going back to the dividend, the fact that there hasn't been an increase in 2016, you mentioned a lot of moving parts and there was also the question on share repurchase and you mentioned wanting to have the Cellulose Fiber sale done as well. Should one read the fact that there hasn't been a dividend increase so far this year? Is that because the way fundamentals have played out or is that because you would want to wait to see to get the asset sales done [indiscernible] before that would even be contemplated?

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Mark, as you would expect, we factor all of what you just outlined into a dividend decision will, as I mentioned, continue to work with the board to figure out what the right timing and what the right level is for a dividend increase as we move forward.

Mark Weintraub

Analyst

Okay. And then in terms of the AVO process, you indicated that the Southern analysis would be done well before the Western analysis relatively soon. Will you – when that part of the analysis is done, will that be shared with the investment community or is the intent to wait until the whole analysis is concluded?

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Mark, as you would expect, we will be providing a significant update on that at our December Investor Meeting. So we'll tell you where we are, how we're thinking about it and how the South is playing out and maybe even preliminary kind of how we're thinking generally about the West. So all those details are still being fleshed out, but we will be giving a significant update at our December Investor Meeting.

Mark Weintraub

Analyst

Okay. Great. And then lastly, a real small one. But on the Uruguay, if you were to go forward with a sale, would that potentially be taxable or would that not be a taxable event?

Russell Hagen

Analyst

So, the Uruguay assets – this is Russell, the Uruguay assets are held in the combination of in the REIT and the TRS, and so, we would have some minor tax leakage. We really haven't gone into that point yet, but we would expect probably some tax leakage because of the TRS held that assets.

Mark Weintraub

Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks a lot.

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Thank you Mark.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Paul Quinn, from RBC Capital Markets.

Paul Quinn

Analyst

Yeah. Thanks very much and good morning.

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Morning, Paul.

Paul Quinn

Analyst

Just a question on Wood Products. It looks like you did a very good job on the OSB segment a little bit – I don't know a little bit off versus our numbers on the lumber side. It looks like costs were up, I think you cited weather and capital projects maybe you could just outline what the capital projects you had in the quarter and how much of that was an effect on lumber cost?

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Yeah. So as we mentioned lumber was off basically for three reasons. One was this lightly lower sales volume, second one as you just alluded to was lower operating rates due to weather and downtime for installation of capital projects and then the third and the largest to try to quantify this, which I think is where you're headed, Paul was the log cost increase primarily in Canada, but also in the West as we mentioned earlier. So, the downtime for installation of capital projects went for any one big project as you know we are spending roughly $300 million a year in capital in our Wood Products operations. Some of that's maintenance capital, but some of it's also capital that we're putting in to drive down our overall cost structure and we just had a couple of those projects that hit in the third quarter and there will be more of those in the fourth quarter.

Paul Quinn

Analyst

Okay. And then I just had a question on Softwood Lumber, just trying to understand Weyerhaeuser's position on this. Without knowing quota levels or any kind of levels of taxation under CVD or AD duties, from a theoretical standpoint, what's better for Weyerhaeuser, a quota or a combined duty?

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Well, I would say, ultimately a quota is the best for all parties involved because it's simpler, it establishes what the levels is, there's a certain level of certainty. So what we would like to end up with Paul, as we have said along is an agreement rather than having to go through the legal system and having a quota in place, very simple quota in place that sets forth the amount of imports from Canada into the U.S.

Paul Quinn

Analyst

Well, thanks. That's all I had. Best of luck.

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Thank you. All right. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And there are no further questions at this time. Presenters, do you have any closing remarks?

Doyle Simons

Analyst

Yes. Let me make a couple of closing remarks. As I've already alluded to, I just wanted to remind everybody that we will be holding our Investor Day on December 13, at the New York Palace Hotel. We look forward to that, and we look forward to seeing many of you there. And I would just conclude by thanking everybody for joining us this morning, and thank you for your interest in Weyerhaeuser.

Operator

Operator

This does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for participating. At this time, you may now disconnect.