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Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)

Q2 2016 Earnings Call· Fri, Aug 5, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Ginger, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Weyerhaeuser Company's Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. I will now turn the call over to our host, Beth Baum. Ma'am, Please go ahead.

Elizabeth L. Baum - Director-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you, Ginger. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today to discuss Weyerhaeuser's second quarter 2016 earnings. This call is being webcast at www.weyerhaeuser.com. Our earnings release and presentation materials can also be found on our website. Please review the warning statements in our press release and on the presentation slides concerning the risks associated with forward-looking statements, as forward-looking statements will be made during the conference call. We will discuss non-GAAP financial measures, and a reconciliation of GAAP can be found in the earnings material on our website. On the call this morning are Doyle Simons, Chief Executive Officer; and Russell Hagen, Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Doyle Simons. Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Beth, and welcome, everyone. This morning, Weyerhaeuser reported second quarter net earnings of $157 million or $0.21 per diluted share on net sales from continuing operations of $1.7 billion. Second quarter results include after tax earnings of $38 million from discontinued operations and $11 million of after tax charges for merger and legal expenses. Results for our entire Cellulose Fibers segment are reported as discontinued operations. Excluding discontinued operations and special items, we're into $130 million or $0.17 per diluted share. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA from our continuing operations was $413 million and this represents an improvement of $77 million or 23% compared with first quarter results. I'm proud of our second quarter operating performance. Our teams continued to execute well and deliver solid operating results including Wood Products strongest second quarter in over a decade. In the quarter, we also announced the sale of our pulp mills and liquid packaging board facility for collective proceeds of $2.5 billion or approximately $1.8 billion after tax. Closed the Twin Creeks…

Operator

Operator

Your first question comes from Anthony Pettinari from Citi. Please go ahead with your question.

Anthony Pettinari - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Good morning. Timberlands – as you think about 3Q in the South, I think you talked about softer price mix. If you take the impact of mix shifts away and you just look at same product prices. I was wondering what you're seeing in July and August. Are prices just flat or you're seeing any kind of improvement in Southern log prices? Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Now, Anthony, what we're seeing is if you take it – and you're thinking about it exactly right on what I'd like to say, an apples-to-apples basis, prices we anticipate will be essentially flat in the third quarter versus the second quarter.

Anthony Pettinari - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And I guess, what do you attribute that to? I mean, presumably lumber mills can pay more for fiber and housing starts are growing double digits. Is there just too much inventory out there? Why aren't log prices improving or inflecting as I think some of us thought that they might now by now? Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. Anthony, and the question, and we've all talked about it is as what is the inflection point where you see significant improvement in pricing. And we remain confident, as housing continues to improve as you said, as additional lumber capacity comes online in the South we remain confident we're going to hit that inflection point based on where supply and demand reach equilibrium. And at that point, well, we believe we'll start to see Southern log prices begin to return to the levels they were prior to the recession. However, we don't think we're going to see that in the third quarter. We're set to wait as we move forward to hit that inflection point.

Anthony Pettinari - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Okay. And then, just in Wood Products, you mentioned the Columbia Falls announcement and adding shifts elsewhere. Was Columbia Falls – will it end up being kind of net neutral from a capacity standpoint? And then just generally, if you could talk about your Wood Products footprint. Are you adding capacity with the increase in starts or how should we think about for the year? Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. So for the year, Anthony, overall, we're running our facilities close to 95%, 96% 97% operating rate due to these good markets. So, you always have a percent or two of Creek (25:46), but we don't anticipate adding any significant capacity in the near term. Columbia Falls net-net, you will have lower capacity but higher profitability. As we stated when we announced that, the reason for that move was to align the available fiber with the productive capacity, and by doing this, we are able to run the remaining mills full out with additional shifts, which will ensure the long-term success of our Montana operations and improve the overall profitability of our Montana operations on a go-forward basis.

Anthony Pettinari - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. I'll turn it over.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from George Staphos from Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

George Leon Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for all the details. How you doing? Doyle, first question in Wood, obviously, very strong result, better than your guidance. As we look out the next couple of quarters, where do you see the most cost pressure? And you're doing a great job on SG&A relative to the revenue base in the business. That's obviously part of the program at Weyerhaeuser, but where do you start to see some tension here? How long can you hold the line here within Wood? And then I had a couple of follow-on questions on SG&A. Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: In terms of cost pressures, George, at this point in time, we don't see any significant cost pressures now. It all runs up, you clearly would have some freight cost pressures and people continue to anticipate that happening at some point, but in the near term, don't see any significant cost pressure. We'd love to see some cost pressure from a log perspective, but not seeing that as we just referenced in the near term.

George Leon Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Yeah. That was part of the question behind the question. The second question I wanted to get into is on Engineered Wood. It sounds like from your commentary that you're pleased with the performance there. And looking at the slide deck, if I thought correctly, we've seen price is drifting a bit lower. If that's correct, what's driving that? Is it again lack of cost push? Is it perhaps somewhat more competitive markets? Single-family starts are obviously doing well, which you would think would be beneficial for Engineered Wood supply, demand and market trend. So, how would you frame that for us? Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. So, what I would say from a pricing perspective, a big part of that slight downward pressure we've seen is just having to do with mix. As we move forward, George, I would say that there are some price increases. Or a price increase that will be playing out in the West, but a portion of that price increase will be offset by some pricing pressure in the East as you have the dealer consolidation and all the different things that are happening from a customer perspective overall. But going forward, we would anticipate prices would be flat to maybe up slightly.

George Leon Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. And then the last one if, again, we did our math right. Again, you've done a very good job on SG&A over the last number of years across the businesses. If I look at Timberland, if I look at Real Estate & ENR versus year-ago levels that ratio has ticked up a bit. Obviously, some of that's probably just mixed in Plum Creek. Again, can you help frame what the opportunity there is for cost reductions in the next couple of quarters as you come out of 2016 and head into 2017? Thanks and good luck in the quarter. Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, George. And the way we look at these cost reductions is pretty straightforward. We say, what was the SG&A and R&D for both combined companies in 2015, and as we said, our goal, and we're confident in reaching that goal, it's about the first quarter of 2017, we will be at that run rate. So, we're modeled – we're as you would anticipate, George, we're on top of that. We know exactly where we are. We've identified the source of those synergies, and we're starting to realize some of it, more to come as we run through the balance of this year and into early next year. But that's the way we're monitoring it to make sure it does, to your point, in fact, show up on the bottom-line.

George Leon Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay, Doyle. Thank you. Good luck in the quarter. Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Collin Mings from Raymond James. Collin P. Mings - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Good morning, Doyle. Good morning, Russell. Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, Collin. How you doing? Collin P. Mings - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Good. Good. A few questions here. First, just maybe big picture, talk a little bit more or update us on how you think the softwood lumber negotiations are going to play out, and just kind of your update as far as thoughts if no deal is reached in the standstill period, comes and goes without a deal. Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Sure. And as you know, we are very actively involved with and aligned with the position of the US Coalition, and there is an ongoing dialogue between the Coalition and our US Trade representative. I do believe participants send from both sides are interested in a resolution. And I'm frankly encouraged the governments – each of the governments are continuing to have discussions. As you know, this is a really important issue for Weyerhaeuser, and we remain hopeful that an agreement can be reached prior to the deadline. But we're prepared to move forward if that doesn't happen in follow trade days (31:21). That's kind of where we are. Collin P. Mings - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Okay. Thanks for the update there. I think, one thing as far as in the prepared remarks, roughly you talked about CapEx, the $425 million. I think that's down from a comparable $450 million, I think, that's what you had got it to earlier. Is that right? And, maybe, what caused the change there? Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes,…

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Mark Wilde from BMO Capital Markets.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Good morning, Doyle. Good morning, Russ. Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Russell S. Hagen - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Good morning, Mark.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Russ, is it possible to get a go forward look at annual harvest volumes in the South and in the West? Russell S. Hagen - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: As we have guided to our total year volumes, we're at about 40 million tons to 42 million tons. So, as you look at our harvest volume to-date, and then you can extrapolate out to what you think the third and fourth quarter will look like, but we don't provide specific guidance for the volumes on a quarter-to-quarter basis.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. And is there likely to be a difference between what you'll do, say over the next three to five years in terms of harvest volumes, and then what you might define as kind of long-term sustainable? It seems to me both Longview and some of those (34:13) properties offered opportunities for accelerated harvest in the near years. Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, Mark, what I would tell you is, as you would anticipate, we're spending a lot of time updating our strategic harvest plans for the combined land base. So, we're right in the midst of that, so we'll give you some – in the future, we'll give you some look at how we think that'll play out in the time horizon that you just laid out. We're right in the middle of that process currently.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. All right. And then, Doyle, can you just give us something of what you're expecting from Japan over the next couple of quarters? Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Sure. So, Japan has been interesting in terms of how this consumption taxes has played out in the second quarter. As we talked about, the volume s down due to the latest consumption tax and prices decline. In the third quarter, Mark, our best guess is that volumes will be kind of flattish. And prices could be down slightly again as consumption tax plays out and also from the competition from the European laminators due to the strong dollar. And then as we look in our crystal ball and the crystal ball isn't always right, but as we look in our crystal ball for the fourth quarter, we would expect some rebound in prices in both Japan and China. That's kind of how we see it playing out.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. All right. And then, final question, just when we think about the SLA, Doyle, is it – would we be correct if we think the sort of the biggest issue for you guys in how this plays out is really the impact and sort of value of timber coming off of your Southern and your Western Timberlands? Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: There's no doubt, Mark, that that is an important component of getting the SLA right on a go-forward basis.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

But if we get tougher restraints, could we see you actually increasing the amount of capital you'd put in the saw mills? Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. Mark, as you know, we have an ongoing – a game plan to – that we've shared with you and others about the capital that we'll be spending in our Wood Products operation on a go-forward basis to make sure we're positioned well, to fully capitalize on the upturn and get our costs to where they need to be. So, spending capital in our Wood Products operation at about the $300 million level that we've done over a past year or two, we think is going to be the right level, at least in the near term going forward.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. Thanks, Doyle. Good luck. Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Chip Dillon from Vertical Research Partners.

Chip Dillon - Vertical Research Partners

Analyst

Yes. Thank you, and good morning, Doyle, Russell and Beth. Russell S. Hagen - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Good morning. Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, Chip.

Chip Dillon - Vertical Research Partners

Analyst

So first question – a couple of just accounting things. One is, I know that when you sold the Cellulose business, and congrats on getting that approval, they at least said that the EBITDA in 2015 was $350 million. And I'm just wondering, would that have really been $386 million or does that $350 million not include that corporate cost number for them? Russell S. Hagen - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Chip, I'm not – that $350 million is really based on their calculations and based on their models. And so, while we did see that number, you definitely want to look – we're reporting up to the point of where it's going to be out of our system. I really can't comment on how they came up with that particular number.

Chip Dillon - Vertical Research Partners

Analyst

So, that's what, it was for 2015? But I guess another way to ask the question is if I look at last year's EBITDA, as you reported it for the segment, then obviously about $36 million of the EBITDA would've been $36 million higher without these corporate cost allocations, is that fair? Russell S. Hagen - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yes. That is correct.

Chip Dillon - Vertical Research Partners

Analyst

Okay. And then the second question is, I know – I believe it's just typically the case, but when you make it a discontinued operations, I believe the number you present in your slide includes all the cash costs, but not depreciation. In other words, you said that it made $52 million, but that, I would assume, does not include depreciation or does that bear any depreciation, or for that matter, any interest expense? Russell S. Hagen - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yes. So we – there's $23 million of depreciation associated with that that was – we stopped, mid-quarter. If you looked at prior quarters, it would be about – the equivalent would be about $38 million of depreciation.

Chip Dillon - Vertical Research Partners

Analyst

Okay. So, you actually had $38 million per quarter going into the second quarter, but then you did $23 million in the second, and it'll be zero in the third. Is that fair? Russell S. Hagen - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Correct.

Chip Dillon - Vertical Research Partners

Analyst

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just a more broader question, thanks for those details, is when you look at Eastern Canada, I've been hearing that – and I don't think you guys are terribly active there, but as you think about the lumber market, it seems like Eastern Canada, I'm hearing that their harvest or their growth of timber has actually come back in recent years and that there would be more activity there in lumber and perhaps even plywood, but lumber in particular. If there is any market for off take, OSB plants or pulp mills. And do you agree with that? In other words, do you think that you could see potential supply, leaving aside any kind of trade issues, coming from Eastern Canada or do you think that's not likely? Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. Chip, I would say, at least from our standpoint, it's in the not likely category. We have not seen what you're referencing and don't think additional capacity or additional capabilities are going to be available in Eastern Canada.

Chip Dillon - Vertical Research Partners

Analyst

And would you say it is fair in the Eastern half of the country, I'm not so sure about the West part of the continent that your residuals can often by a very material percentage of your profit? Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: That's a – it's an important part. That's right.

Chip Dillon - Vertical Research Partners

Analyst

Understood. Thank you. Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Mark Connelly from CLSA.

Mark Connelly - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst

Thank you. Doyle, is it safe to say that with the better lumber prices and very successful asset sales that you're feeling pretty good that Weyerhaeuser has addressed the rating agencies issues and that at this point, you've got room to execute on your buybacks the way you want to rather than to make them happy. Russell S. Hagen - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah. Mark, this is Russell. We definitely spend time at the rating agencies to make sure that they understand our deposition and our EBITDA generation. And we're very comfortable with where we're at with the rating agencies and our current investment grade rating. Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: And Mark, as you referenced the share repurchase – we have, as we said, we were going to do it on an accelerated basis. We've essentially completed the $2 billion in, I guess, less than six months and did it in what we think has been a attractive value from our shareholder perspective of less than $29.50 per share. So, pleased with the progress that we've made on the share repurchase.

Mark Connelly - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst

That's super. And just one quick comment or question on the log realizations. We've heard that smaller land owners in the South had been more aggressive. Do you think that's one of the reasons why we haven't seen log prices keeping up? Or is that not as widespread as we're hearing? Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think that is a component of what has happened on the log pricing. Small land owners, you never exactly what motivates them or when they bring things to market. But clearly there, we have seen some of that happening over the past year or two.

Mark Connelly - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thanks very much. Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Gail Glazerman from Roe Equity Research.

Gail S. Glazerman - Roe Equity Research, LLC

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. A quick question... Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi, Gail.

Gail S. Glazerman - Roe Equity Research, LLC

Analyst

A quick follow-up on the buybacks. If I remember correctly, it was initially going to be $2 billion of the $2.5 billion was going to be accelerated, and I'm just wondering if you could give some perspective on your approach to that remaining $500 million? Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes.

Gail S. Glazerman - Roe Equity Research, LLC

Analyst

Will that be also accelerated or more opportunistic? Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. So, you're exactly right, Gail. What we've said is that the authorization for the $2.5 billion, if we will do $2 billion on an accelerated basis, and as I just mentioned, we have essentially completed that. We've also said consistently that once we do, we'll take a pause and we'll work closely with our board to determine the timing of the additional $500 million. So, that's what we'll be doing.

Gail S. Glazerman - Roe Equity Research, LLC

Analyst

Okay. This might be a little off the wall, but (43:14) used to talk about trying to build an export market out of the South? And is that something, an effort that you're continuing, and what your view would be from that, on the long-term? Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Sure. We are, as you would anticipate constantly evaluating our markets and the way to grow markets. As you also know, the South is very small in terms of export market currently, but we'll continue to look at opportunities as we move forward, and we think that market will in fact develop over time.

Gail S. Glazerman - Roe Equity Research, LLC

Analyst

Okay. And just one last one, yesterday, your partner with some of the development plans, and around the Carolinas is talking about an accelerated monetization. And I was just wondering if you could give some perspective on how that might affect Weyerhaeuser? Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. So those are the joint venture partnerships that Plum Creek entered into. And we have been in discussions with them, and we're aware that they're seeking to do an accelerated program to divest to some of those properties. Given that's a joint venture, we treat that as equity accounting. We'll see the benefit of that as they execute on that plan.

Gail S. Glazerman - Roe Equity Research, LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Mark Weintraub from Buckingham Research.

Mark Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you. Just wanted to follow-up on the real estate, and the stepping up of activity there later this year and into next year, is that primarily going to be on legacy Weyerhaeuser lands or would we – should we expect it to be a mix of legacy Weyerhaeuser and Plum Creek? Because obviously the Plum Creek land presumably were stepped up, but the Weyerhaeuser lands haven't been. Russell S. Hagen - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: So, Mark, this is Russell. We'll see a mix, but we may see some more Plum Creek lands coming in, in the third and fourth quarter, which will result in a little higher bases because of that step-up. As we look at the combined portfolio, obviously, we're focused on getting to the Weyerhaeuser lands through the AVO process. But in conjunction with that, we're looking at all the opportunities on the combined portfolio. And it really does provide us with a lot of optionality as far as which lands to bring to market.

Mark Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And then, shifting gears a little bit, but any kind of big picture thoughts on how you'll be going about the dividend recognizing you had a lot of improvement in your Wood Products business. It's kind of underlying earnings there. Yet, Timber has maybe been a little bit slow to see the price improvement in the South. How – what might be a kind of a helpful way of thinking through how you'd be approaching the dividend at this point and if it's changed at all as your mix of businesses have changed quite a bit in the last year or so? Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, Mark. As you know, we're committed to a growing and sustainable dividend. 2016 is going to be very noisy as we continue to move forward and lots of moving pieces. As we look into 2017, we're going to continue to benefit from cost and operational synergies, continued OpEx improvements, strong housing market, all those types of things. We will be spending time with our board as we move forward to figure out exactly how to think about the dividend on a go-forward basis with the mix of assets that we now have with the much more stable earnings stream that comes from Timberlands and then the improvements that we've made in our Wood Products to take some of the volatility out of that, and most importantly probably to eliminate some of the downside in our Wood Products operation on a go-forward basis. So, all things that would be factoring in to what the appropriate level of our dividend is on a go-forward basis.

Mark Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And one last one if I could, the tax rate guidance, 18% to 20% I guess a little higher than I would have anticipated. And maybe, what one question would be, does the interest expense – can that get allocated to taxable – the taxable REIT subsidiary or does some of that actually run through the – not get that benefit? Russell S. Hagen - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah. So, Mark, we're guiding the 18% to 20% for our full year tax rate. As far as the allocation of the interest expense between the taxable REIT subsidiary and the REIT, we actually have debt that is associated with taxable REIT subsidiary. So, that's allocated and tax effected accordingly. And then, there's debt associated with the REIT assets. So, you'll get a blended rate.

Mark Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. I'll circle back. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

That is all the time we have for questions today. Presenters, do you have any closing remarks? Doyle R. Simons - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. Thanks everybody for joining. As indicated, that was our final question, and I'd just like to close by thanking everybody for their interest in Weyerhaeuser. Take care.

Operator

Operator

This does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participating. At this time, you may now disconnect.