Shashank Patel
Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open
Thank you, Bob, and good morning, everyone. Please now turn to slide four, which highlights our fourth quarter results. Sales of $548 million were up 9% on a reported basis and down 1% organically. Organic growth of 1% in the Americas and 4% in APMEA were offset by a 5% organic decline in Europe. Foreign exchange, primarily driven by a stronger euro, increased year-over-year sales by roughly $6 million or 1%. Sales from our Enware and Bradley acquisitions added $42 million or 9 points and are reported within the APMEA and Americas regions, respectively. I will review the regional performance momentarily. Compared to last year, adjusted operating profit of $86 million increased 21% and adjusted operating margin of 15.8% was up 150 basis points. Benefits from price productivity and mix more than offset inflation, reduced volume and incremental investments of $9 million. The acquisitions were dilutive to operating margins by approximately 100 basis points. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.97 increased 23% versus last year. Earnings per share growth was driven primarily by strong operational performance and reduced interest expense, which was partially offset by the net impact of acquisitions and foreign exchange movements. The adjusted effective tax rate in the quarter was 22.3%, up 10 basis points, compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. For GAAP purposes, we took a $3.8 million restructuring charge in the quarter related to the continued rightsizing of our European cost structure, along with additional Americas cost actions and facility exit costs. We also incurred $6.3 million of non-recurring acquisition charges. These charges are partially offset by the reversal of an earn-out accrual from a prior acquisition. We also recorded a tax charge of $5.3 million primarily related to foreign withholding taxes associated with the repatriation of cash in 2023. Moving to regional results. Please turn to slide five. Americas organic sales were up 1% and reported sales were up 10%. This was slightly better than we expected, especially against a tough prior year comparison. As a reminder, Americas grew 11% organically in the fourth quarter of 2022. Solid growth in our non-residential core valve products was largely offset by declines in gas connectors and commercial marine instrumentation. Americas reported sales were favorably impacted by 9% from the acquisition of Bradley, which added $33 million of sales in the quarter. Adjusted operating profit increased by 19%, and adjusted operating margins increased by 150 basis points. The margin expansion was driven by price, favorable mix and productivity, which more than offset volume declines, inflation, incremental investments and dilution from the Bradley acquisition. Europe organic sales were down 5% as we expected. Reported sales were flat as they are positively impacted by 5% from favorable foreign exchange movements. Growth in our wholesale business in France was more than offset by declines in Germany and Italy with the reduction of government subsidies had an unfavorable impact. Operating margin increased by 220 basis points as price, favorable mix and productivity more than offset inflation, investments and volume deleverage. APMEA delivered 4% organic growth. Reported sales growth of 40% was negatively impacted by 1% from unfavorable foreign exchange movements and favorably impacted by 37% or $9 million of acquired Enware sales. Strong growth in Australia and New Zealand were tempered by flat sales in China due to weak residential underfloor heating sales and project timing in data centers. Adjusted operating margin decreased 180 basis points due to affiliate charges, inflation, investments and the dilutive effect of the Enware acquisition, which more than offset price volume and productivity. On slide six, I will speak to the full-year results. As Bob mentioned, we delivered record operating results for 2023. Reported sales were $2.1 billion, up 4%, primarily driven by price. Again, this was against a tough prior year comparison when we grew 13% organically in 2022 on a consolidated basis. Acquisitions accounted for 3% or $59 million of incremental sales year-over-year. Foreign exchange globally had an immaterial impact across the year. Compared to last year, adjusted operating profit of $365 million increased 13% and adjusted operating margins of 17.8% was up 140 basis points. Benefits from price, productivity and mix more than offset inflation, reduced volume and incremental investments of $24 million. The dilutive impact of acquisitions was approximately 40 basis points. Adjusted full-year earnings per share of $8.27 increased by $1.14 or 16% versus the prior year. Operating results drove approximately $0.91 of the increase, while acquisitions, lower interest expense and a lower adjusted effective tax rate combined for an additional $0.23. Free cash flow for the full-year was $281 million, a 40% increase compared to last year and is a company record. The increase was driven by higher net income and reduced working capital investment. We invested approximately $30 million in capital spending, including investments in new product development, lean initiatives and automation. Our 2020 free cash flow conversion was 107%, and our reinvestment ratio was 99%. We repatriated approximately $64 million in cash during the fourth quarter of 2023 and approximately $118 million for the full-year of 2023. The proceeds were used to pay down revolving debt and to fund acquisitions. We returned $63 million to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases in 2023 and increased our annual dividend return by 20%. We repurchased approximately 92,000 shares of our Class A common stock at a cost of $16 million during the year. There is approximately $12 million remaining under the current stock repurchase program that was authorized in 2019 with another $150 million remaining available under the stock repurchase program authorized in July 2023. Our net debt to capitalization ratio at year-end was negative 3.5%, compared to negative 14.3% at year-end 2022. Our net leverage ratio at year-end is negative 0.1. Our balance sheet continues to be in excellent shape and provides substantial flexibility to fund our capital allocation priorities. Our team did an excellent job proactively managing the price cost dynamic, expanding margins, further strengthening our balance sheet, while continuing to invest for future growth and delivering record financial results in 2023. Now on slide seven, let's discuss the general framework we considered in preparing our 2024 outlook. First, let's look at the expected unfavorable conditions. Elevated interest rates could further impact multifamily and nonresidential construction projects. The Europe economy continues to slow. Higher interest rates and general uncertainty may negatively impact purchasing decisions, especially in new construction and energy incentive projects in Germany and Italy. We expect Americas multifamily new construction to weaken over the course of 2024. Available data suggests a continued decline in new permits for multifamily projects and in excess of capacity currently on the market. As Bob discussed, America's nonresidential new construction indicators are mixed. Some sub-verticals will be more challenged, including office, retail and recreation. Some leading indicators, including the ABI Index, have dipped in recent quarters portending a slowdown in 2024. We expect incremental investments to be a headwind in 2024. As Bob previously mentioned, we have commenced a multiyear implementation of a new SAP cloud-based ERP system in the Americas. This is the continuation of our efforts to reduce our global ERP instances, which grew through our many acquisitions. Over the last 10-years, we have reduced from 30 ERP systems down to 12. We'll be continuing this effort in the Americas by migrating to one SAP system, which will further reduce our ERP instances. We have established a road map for the next several years to enable us to make a smooth transition to the new platform, and we expect this investment to lead to significant efficiencies for our team and customers. In the middle column are themes that we'll continue to monitor. Geopolitical uncertainty both in Europe and in the Middle East may impact global markets during 2024. We have been able to maintain a positive price cost dynamic during 2023. We'll continue to monitor the cost environment and respond appropriately. Global GDP has slowed but is currently expected to be positive in the U.S. and Europe. As a reminder, GDP X as a proxy for our repair and replacement business. Americas single-family new construction bottomed in 2023 and is expected to see slight growth in 2024. Now looking at potential favorable conditions. Our recent acquisitions of Bradley, Josam and Enware are expected to contribute over 10 points of revenue growth and increase our exposure to attractive institutional end markets. Americas institutional and light industrial new construction are expected to remain favorable. We believe that the health care, education, data centers, mega projects and food and beverage sub-verticals should continue to grow. We expect incremental revenue driven by our digital product offerings and other new product introductions. Productivity and automation investments are expected to provide cost savings in 2024. In addition, our Europe and Americas segments are expected to have incremental cost savings from the restructuring activities we initiated in late 2023. As discussed, our balance sheet remains strong as we head into 2024. With that as background, let's review our outlook for the full-year 2024 and our expectations for the first quarter of 2024. On slide eight, we have provided our major assumptions. Starting with the full-year assumptions on a reported basis, we expect sales to increase between 6% and 12%. Consolidated organic revenue is estimated to range from negative 5% to positive 1%, with regional expectations as follows, Americas from negative 3% to positive 2%, Europe from negative 9% to negative 4% and APMEA from flat to positive 6%. In addition, we expect approximately $210 million of incremental sales in the Americas and $9 million in APMEA from acquisitions. Compared to 2023, we expect the following: EBITDA margin to be in the range of 19.4% to 20% or down 50 basis points to up 10 basis points; operating margin should be in the range of 16.9% to 17.5% or down 90 basis points to down 30 basis points. This is largely due to the expected acquisition dilution of approximately 80 basis points, mostly driven by Bradley. From a regional perspective, the Americas operating margin is expected to be down 90 basis points to 140 basis points, primarily driven by the dilutive impact of acquisitions. We anticipate Europe's adjusted operating margin will decrease 100 basis points to 160 basis points due to the impact from volume deleverage. APMEA's adjusted operating margin is expected to increase 40 basis points to 100 basis points. It is important to note that the margin guidance includes approximately $20 million in incremental investments. As for the other 2024 key inputs, we expect corporate costs to be about $55 million for the year. Net interest expense should be approximately $12 million. Our estimated adjusted effective tax rate for 2024 should be approximately 25%. CapEx spending is expected to be approximately $50 million. Depreciation and amortization should be approximately $55 million for the year. We expect to deliver free cash flow conversion of greater than or equal to 90% of net income in 2024. We expect free cash flow to be below 100% due to the previously mentioned incremental investments related to our new ERP system. For the full-year, we are assuming a 1.09 average euro-U.S. dollar FX rate versus the average rate of 1.08 in 2023. This would imply an increase of 1% year-over-year and would equate to an increase of $5 million in sales and $0.02 a share in EPS for the full-year versus the prior year. We expect our share count to be approximately 33.5 million for the year. Finally, a few items to consider for Q1. On a reported basis, we expect sales to increase between 15% and 19%. Organically, we expect sales to increase 1% to 5% with mid-single-digit growth in the Americas and APMEA, offset by a mid-single-digit decline in Europe. Based on the calendarization in 2024, we will benefit from four extra shipping days in the first quarter, which will be offset in the fourth quarter. In addition, we expect approximately $57 million of incremental sales in the Americas and $9 million in APMEA from acquisitions. Compared to the first quarter of 2023, we expect the following: first quarter EBITDA margin to be in the range of 19.5% to 20.1% or down 50 basis points to up 10 basis points. First quarter operating margin should be in the range of 17% to 17.6% or down 80 basis points to down 20 basis points. This is due to the impact of acquisition dilution as well as higher investments. We expect incremental investments of approximately $6 million in Q1. Corporate costs should be approximately $13 million. Net interest expense should be approximately $3 million. The adjusted effective tax rate should be between 23% and 24%. We are estimating a 1.07 euro, dollar exchange rate, which is flat to the first quarter of 2023. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Bob to summarize our discussion before moving to Q&A. Bob?