Rodger Levenson
Analyst · KBW. Your line is now open
Thanks, Dominic. Turning to Beneficial, we are pleased to report that shareholders from both companies overwhelmingly approved the merger in December. In addition, the regulatory approval process is moving along as expected and we remain on track for a closing on March 1st. As outlined previously, our systems and brand conversion is scheduled for the last weekend in August, which is also when the majority of the branch consolidations will occur. This six month period post closing will provide ample time for integration planning and training to ensure a smooth conversion for both customers and associates. Teams from both companies have been working diligently and collaboratively on the integration plan. 35 key business teams with representatives from both organizations are working very closely with our integration management office with weekly updates with our Executive Management Steering Committee, and are also reviewed monthly with the Special Integration Committee of the Board. Overall, we are very pleased with our progress to-date and look forward to becoming one combined company in the near future. Finally, I will provide a high level outlook for 2019. In many respects, the development of our 2019 plan began last summer when teams from both companies worked together to establish the baseline for the financial modeling supporting the Beneficial combination. During the five months since our announcement, our original assumptions for combined operating results, cost and revenue synergies and corporate development expenses have been affirmed providing the template for the 2019 plan. As a reminder, the plan assumes a March 1st close of Beneficial resulting in 10 months of combined results and a systems and brand conversion at the end of August. Highlights of the plan include first, loan growth in the low single digit, as low to mid single digit organic growth is offset by normal merger attrition in the consumer mortgage and commercial real estate portfolios. Second, deposits to remain flat to slightly decreasing, as low single digit organic growth is offset by attrition related primarily to our branch optimization plan, as part of our delivery transformation. Both loan and deposit attrition levels are expected and consistent with our original modeling. Third, our net interest margin just under 4.10%. This includes model purchase loan accretion and balance sheet optimization. This also incorporates increasing deposit betas and the expectation of one interest rate hike in June, in line with Fed fund futures, when the plan was completed in December. The NIM impact of no rate increases, as indicated by the recent futures market could be in the range of a couple of basis points. Fourth, core fee income growth in the high single digit after normalizing for the sale of Beneficial's insurance business in late 2018. Fifth, excluding corporate development and other one-time merger-related expenses, a core efficiency ratio of around 58%. Sixth, total credit costs of around 25 basis points on average loans or $18 million (ph) to $22 million for the year. As a reminder, these costs can be uneven from quarter-to-quarter and reflect anticipation of a continued stable economy. Seventh, a full year core effective tax rate of approximately 23% to 24%. Please note that our reported effective tax rate will be closer to 30% to 31% due to transaction-related tax treatment. Finally, a note on capital management. As stated in the release, we intend to continue our long standing policy of returning at least 25% of annual net income to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases -- repurchases. The Board approved a new share repurchase authorization in December and at current pricing levels, we have a bias toward repurchases. We will evaluate the amount and pace of repurchases when we come out of the blackout period after the merger closes. Overall, we expect to achieve a full year core ROA of 1.50% in 2019. The first half of the year results will be impacted by the typically slower first quarter, driven by seasonality and the transaction closing. We would anticipate ROA increasing during the second half of the year. Looking beyond 2019, our new three year strategic plan reflects a fully integrated Beneficial including realization of a 100% of cost savings and planned revenue synergies. Consistent with prior modeling, we target a core ROA of 1.65% in 2020, and 1.75% in 2021. This obviously assumes a stable economy and rate environment. In summary, 2018 saw a successful completion of our last three strategic plans, which took us from a zero ROA in 2009 to 70 basis points in the first quarter of 2013 to a full year core ROA of 1.63% and a core ROTCE over 20% in 2018. Our upcoming transformational combination with Beneficial gives us the opportunity to deliver continued very high levels of quality performance through our new strategic plan and for many years to come. At this time, we would be happy to take your questions.