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WPP plc (WPP)

Q3 2023 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 26, 2023

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Transcript

Mark Read

Management

Thank you very much, and good morning, everybody, and welcome to our third quarter results. I'm joined here in London by Joanne Wilson, our CFO; and Tom Waldron, from our Investor Relations team. And we'll just take you through the presentation before answering questions. On Slide 2 is our cautionary statement. I'd just like to draw your attention to this and ask you to read it. So on Slide 3, in terms of the agenda. So I'm going to touch briefly at the beginning on the highlights of our third quarter results before Joanne covers the financial performance in some detail. We'll take some time to go through the strategic update and then Q&A. So highlights on Slide 4. I'd say that our third quarter was somewhat below our expectations with net sales down 0.6%, taking us to around 1.2% growth on a year-to-date basis. We had expected performance in Q3 to improve somewhat on Q2, in part due to the easier comparatives. But we did see a continued -- a continuation to pattern of spending that we saw in the second quarter, in particular, reduction in spend by our technology clients. In fact, they were slightly worse from minus 9% in Q2 to minus 13% in Q3. We also saw somewhat slower growth in GroupM, primarily in the U.S. and the U.K., a little bit in Germany, due to a mix of factors. Some technology impact, some around the new business performance in the U.S. and some client softness in the U.K. As a result, although the U.S. performance in Q3 is broadly the same as Q2 around minus 4.2%, minus 4.5%, it had a slower growth internationally from 5% in Q2 to 1.8%, really taking down the overall performance. That's really the key drivers of our top line…

Joanne Wilson

Management

Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. I'll talk a little bit more about the expected financial benefits from VML and the further integration of GroupM later. But first, let me take you through the financial results for the third quarter. So starting on Slide 7. Revenue less pass-through costs fell 5% on a reported basis and was down 0.6% on a like-for-like basis. Reported growth includes a 5.5 percentage point headwind from FX due to sterling strengthening year-on-year and a 1.1 percentage point contribution from acquisitions. As Mark shared, the quarter was impacted by a continuation of the cautious client spending patterns we saw in Q2, particularly at technology clients and also weaker quarter-on-quarter performance in media. Moving on to Slide 8. Global Integrated Agencies were broadly flat year-on-year in the quarter with growth of 0.1%. Within this, GroupM, our media planning and buying business, grew 1.6%, a slowdown versus H1 as a result of lower spend from technology clients and the impact of client losses in retail and CPG in the U.S. Together, these contributed to low single-digit growth in the U.S. and the U.K. in the quarter. GroupM grew well in Asia, and we saw continued strong growth in digital, programmatic and connected TV advertising, driving the share of digital to 51% of billings in Q3, up from 48% a year ago. Across our integrated creative agencies, we saw a like-for-like decline of 1.1%, a slightly better performance quarter-on-quarter. Ogilvy benefited from new business wins and delivered continued strong growth, offset by declines at our other creative agencies. As in Q2, those agencies continue to be adversely impacted by reduced spend primarily across tech sector clients and longer lead times for new business and project-related work. Moving to Public Relations, which is around 10% of WPP. Revenue…

Mark Read

Management

Thanks very much, Joanne. So turning to our strategic growth. On Slide 14, we talk to the evolving needs of clients. And we continue to evolve our offer, the creation of VML, the simplification of GroupM, the recent acquisitions in the area, influence of marketing, the continued investment we're making in production through Hogarth. All of this is shaping our offer to meet changing client needs. Secondly, creativity. We continue to invest in our creative products. Here, I'd put out the success of Ogilvy under Devika and this leadership, its recent win of the Verizon business, both B2B and now B2C, and its recognition as Adweek's Global Agency of the Year. Ogilvy is growing well between 3% to 4% year-to-date. And this is in large part down to its creative rejuvenation under their leadership and many of the talented executives that they brought in as well as those that are already in the business. Thirdly, technology and AI are increasingly important to our work and to our clients. And we shared with you on these calls over the year the many examples of work that we're doing, and we continue to have examples. What we'd like to do now is come back to you in January with a much more comprehensive view of our overall approach and investment road map in AI and demonstrate how we can really transform the work that we do with clients using these new tools. Fourthly, we continue to be focused on simplifying WPP structure and gaining the benefits of scale. And the announcements today mean that our large -- 5 largest companies, GroupM, VML, Ogilvy, AKQA and Hogarth, now represent about 82% of the company. Significant progress in terms of simplifying the business, providing us with the benefits of scale and supporting the transformation…

Operator

Operator

Our first question comes from the line of Tom Singlehurst of Citi.

Thomas Singlehurst

Analyst

Yes. It's Tom here from Citi. I was going to start with the VML and GroupM sort of reorgs because obviously, in the short term, we're obviously very focused on the savings impact. But I'd love to get your sense of how we should think about the impact on revenue and how that's phased. Firstly, in the short term, is there a likely revenue dis-synergy from any potential client conflicts? Or is that less of an issue that might have been in the past? And then secondly, on the basis that this drives a better operating model strength go-to-market, will that revenue benefit be dependent on client account wins? So it's going to be pushed out until 2025? Is that how we should think about the phasing of revenue?

Mark Read

Management

Yes. So I think that the world is changing rapidly. And I think that scale matters in marketing more than it did 1 year ago or indeed 5 years ago. So I think further action was needed. In the previous combinations that we did, albeit they were different, we did -- we saw very little in the way of client losses actually. And there was actually virtually no client losses at either VMLY&R or Wunderman and J. Walter Thompson. If anything, the moves there stabilized both businesses, enabled us to get our hands around the clients much more effectively. This is different in the sense of bringing -- in the case of VML, 2 complementary companies together. But again, the reaction from clients has been very interesting. They're keen to see what new capabilities they can have access to because the businesses, they're similar but somewhat different in terms of their strengths. And I think that it will enable us to get our hands around those clients, bring them new capabilities and have different conversations. It's a chance and a way for clients to reevaluate the work that they do. In an environment where clients are looking to simplify their own relationships, I think it puts us in a stronger position. I don't want to talk about the sort of timing of revenue benefits. But I would say that it is intended to bring revenue benefits. Again, when we went through sort of 2020, '21 the consolidation of a number of our long-tail offices, combining smaller businesses in the sort of far-flung parts of the world, we did see those combined agencies grow faster with higher margins after the event. So I do think we will create, particularly in the case of VML, a stronger business. From a GroupM perspective, I think it will be a question of, over time, shifting our resources from some of, let's say, the back-office activities that are duplicated across 3 agencies to providing stronger and more competitive media products and technology platforms into those businesses. It will take some time for that to work its way through, but I do think that we'll see an improved new business performance and from -- as a result, and that will continue over time. So I would stress that we're doing this to make the offer more competitive. We do believe that will support stronger revenue growth, but there are cost saves. As we said, at least GBP 100 million, and we'll come back to you at the Capital Markets Day with a bit more detail on that. And I'll stress again that those are net savings rather than gross savings.

Thomas Singlehurst

Analyst

Very clear. And one quick follow-up. I mean coming back to new business. I mean as you mentioned, you've had maybe a tough run of luck in terms of defending more than you're attacking, if that's the right terminology. But should we think about the new business challenges as purely a sort of U.S. new business challenge? And then linked to that, I mean, you've talked about GroupM and the benefits of simplification. But if you really need to drive scale, is there anything else you can do to try and fundamentally address that sort of lack of scale in U.S. media?

Mark Read

Management

Yes. Look, I think that the issues we had in new business are primarily in the U.S. And without blaming GroupM, primarily at GroupM in the U.S., I'd say we had a tough few months really April, May, for the next 3 or 4 months. I point out that we won the PayPal business in the U.S. yesterday. And the Nestlé win by GroupM in Europe obviously demonstrates the strength of that business. So I think that there's work to be done. GroupM North America is about 12% of the company overall. I think on a combined basis, the offer is very strong. So I think it's really about execution.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Julien Roch of Barclays.

Julien Roch

Analyst

First question is on account wins and losses. You had a couple of good ones, but a lot of small ones, so -- sorry, a couple of big losses, but a lot of smaller wins. So when you put everything together, what do you think will be the impact on organic next year at the '23 wins and losses? That's my first question. The second one, in answering Tom, you highlighted some losses at GroupM in the U.S., and you said you had work to do. So could you give us a bit more detail on what you need to do to go back to being investment-class [ criteria ]? And then lastly, on the Investor Day, will we have some midterm financial targets? Or will it be more of a qualitative review of the business?

Mark Read

Management

I think on the accounts and wins and losses, as things stand today, it's probably a slight headwind. But there are -- there is a strong pipeline. There's a lot of opportunities in the pipeline. And we have had success. We lead the new business table in media in Asia. We're in a very good position in the new business table in media in Europe. And I will point out that all these new business tables primarily really just apply to media, which is only about 37% of our business. From a GroupM perspective, I'd say the changes that we're announcing sort of publicly today but are underway will start to address those issues in North America. And for the Investor Day, we'll give you a full meat and potatoes presentation. Everything that you will need, Julien.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Lisa Yang of Goldman Sachs.

Lisa Yang

Analyst

Yes, I appreciate you're going to talk about the plans of actions at the CMD in more detail, but just wondering at this point what you can share with us in terms of your part of the timing of return to growth in the U.S. It feels like based on what you're doing so far, the issue is more about the simplification execution rather than the capabilities. So could you confirm that? And can you confirm you don't need to go out and maybe reinvest more or buy something to improve your capabilities? So that's the first question. The second one is I just wonder, what has sort of really changed in terms of your client conversations since you cut the guide already early August? And what sort of feedback you're getting from clients for the rest of the year? How do they think about 2024? Are you seeing any signals of bottoming out, for instance, in China or in tech? And the third thing is, I noticed you haven't reiterated your midterm target. So maybe to go back to Julien's question, just wondering like do they still hold? Or we should basically just wait for the CMD and look for an update?

Mark Read

Management

Okay. Can you just clarify the last question, Lisa? An update on what?

Lisa Yang

Analyst

Yes. I just noticed you haven't reiterated your midterm targets, 3% to 4% net sales growth and 15.5%, 16% margin, with today's press release. So just wondering, do they still hold? Or we should just -- are you just working away? Or we just should be waiting for the update at the CMD?

Mark Read

Management

Yes. I think that they stand as they are today, and we'll update the midterm targets at the CMD. In terms of new business, I think that our capabilities are strong. I think it's really a question of execution, and we need to improve our execution on the day. In terms of client conversations, I'd say that it's pretty clear that spending by tech companies has been significantly impacted. I'm sure you saw Meta's results last night. They announced a 24% reduction in their marketing spend. And we've seen that across a number of technology clients. So that has undoubtedly impacted us. And we saw the impact of technology spend, down 9% in Q3, down 13% -- sorry, down 9% in Q2, they come down 13% in Q3, and some of that spread from the U.S. more internationally. So that has been probably the major impact that has weighed on us. I don't think that the macro environment has improved. I would describe client conversations as, in the main, cautious. At the same time, as we discussed in the past, there are a number of clients, particularly in the consumer packaged goods area, that continue to invest. Our CPG spend was up 15%. Seven of our 10 client categories increased their spending in the year. Telco is up 8%, in part on the back of the Verizon win. Travel was up 5%. And I think that's sort of how we see it. And maybe, trying to sort of bring you around and just to answer your questions and everyone else's on the guidance more precisely, so you can do that.

Joanne Wilson

Management

Yes. Lisa, just in terms of the guidance, so we've reduced, as we said, to 0.5% to 1% for the full year. And now what does that mean for Q4? So at the bottom end, minus 1% like-for-like and at the top end, plus 0.5%. So as Mark said, we've been cautious on the bottom end. So our performance in Q3 was below where we were expecting too. We've reflected some of that into the guidance, so a continuation of trends that we've seen in Q3 tied into Q4. And we've got tougher comps in Q4, so that reflects that. And at the top end, it's really an improved performance, and that's also back off an acceleration in GroupM, which we expect to see quarter-on-quarter. And we continue to see, within that top end, some of the trends persist in Q4. So that's really how we're thinking about the balance of the year. And then you asked about 2024. Of course, we'll give further guidance on that early in the new year. But in terms of how we're thinking about it at the moment, we have seen a tougher second half than we've seen in the first half. And therefore, the macro and tech coming back will be important considerations. Obviously, in Q2 next year, we'll start to lap that sharp falloff in tech that we've seen this year. And Mark talked about some of the net client wins and losses. And we were encouraged by new business in Q3. So as I said, we'll give a further update in 2024 early in the new year.

Mark Read

Management

I mean, I'd add to that, Lisa. Tech is definitely the [ worry ] of us this year, from [ worrying us ] increasing as we go through the year. I would expect it to reverse next year. And the question is going to be at what point in the year it reverses. But I do think that these are significant companies that are making major investments. They have a lot of new product launches ahead of them, and they are major advertisers. They need to communicate to customers, both business and personal and indeed to regulators and [ issue ] makers around the world. So I think that they will come back to investing in marketing. What's happening today is really a combination of sort of an efficiency pause, it's a efficiency play by some of them, and then a pause around new product launch and new product development by others.

Lisa Yang

Analyst

That's very helpful. And quickly on China, are you seeing any signs of that market bottoming out?

Mark Read

Management

No, I think that we saw a better Q2, a worse Q3. And I'd say the macro environment in China is -- remains cautious and uncertain. I saw reports yesterday, maybe they hit their 5% growth target. That would imply a little bit of a rebound in Q4. But I think the range of our guidance reflects the range of outcomes in China along with everything else.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Adrien de St. Hilaire of Bank of America.

Adrien de Saint Hilaire

Analyst

So I've got a few questions, please. So first of all, I know this is a Q3 call, and it's probably premature to talk about '24. But do you think that Q3 and the Q4 guidance that you gave, is that a good way to think about the start of 2024 as well? Secondly, could you comment how much like-for-like growth you need in '24 in order to grow your margins? And then so leverage is ticking up, and it's now guided to be at the upper end or above the range. Does that change your capital allocation strategy and how you think about spending on M&A, dividends, et cetera?

Mark Read

Management

Joanne, why don't you answer that? And we'll...

Joanne Wilson

Management

Yes. So yes, look, let me just explain the leverage point. So obviously, as you all know, our ratio is an average leverage through the year. We expect that to be slightly outside the top end of our range, and that's really driven by timing of cash flows through the year but also just the lower profits than what we were anticipating at the start of the year. In terms of the quantum net debt, we expect it to be broadly flat, maybe slightly up on last year. So -- and based on that, and as we look forward, I would expect leverage to come back within the range in 2024, Adrien. In terms of our capital allocation, we -- as we look at it, I would like our leverage to be down more towards the lower end of the range. And so we're focused on that and our cash conversion to support that. And we are very happy with our dividend policy of a 40% payout. I'm not reviewing that. And on M&A, I would say that we've been disciplined on M&A. So we talk about spending GBP 300 million to GBP 400 million a year on M&A. We tend to buy in high-growth businesses, which enhance our capability. And there are revenue synergies as we integrate those businesses into our agencies. A great example of that is the influencer marketing businesses we bought today. And so we will continue to focus on those, I guess, smaller opportunities in the next 12 months. And then let me just take your next question in terms of what like-for-like do we need in 2024 to grow our margin. I mean, that's not really how I look at it. And we'll give fuller guidance on 2024 in next year, early next year.…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Richard Kramer of Arete Research.

Richard Kramer

Analyst

It's Richard Kramer from Arete. Two things. You mentioned growth in programmatic and CTV, and there's a lot of focus on transparency in the ad tech supply chain. As you merge functions into GroupM, do you think you can grow by taking DSP or other ad tech functions in-house and take more of that supply chain value? And maybe a second quick one. With the tech client spending declines you've cited, can you talk about whether that extends to retail media, which seems to have been one of the rare bright spots in tech spending? Or maybe that's reflected in the very good growth you're seeing in CPG?

Mark Read

Management

Yes. So I think the first question is an interesting one. And I haven't thought about it directly in those terms. But I think that you're right. I think that within Nexus, by having a common technology -- a common set of media products and a common technology platform, we will be able to better serve our clients in the sort of programmatic and tech-driven media space. I mean one of the reasons we're doing it is that effectively, all media will be digital. When you go to China today, only 3% of media is traditional television. And so we are going to need to have common systems that apply across all of those channels. And one of the things we've done in Nexus is we used to have Xaxis that did programmatic display, Finecast that did connected television, another group that did sort of out-of-home. Makes no sense whatsoever, right? They're all just digital channels addressed through effectively the Internet. And so I think the reorganization will enable us to provide a common technology platform to allow clients to optimize their media, of course, all of those platforms in the right way and, at the same time, to capture spend that may go to outside technology providers. And by better investing in technology to support that business, there will be opportunities. In terms of the tech client retail media platform, look, I don't think, in the main, technology companies are major spenders on retail media. Some of them do have product-related businesses, Oculuses and Nests and other phones. But in the main, they're really supporting their services businesses and their brand in their services business. So I don't think it's really had a major impact and maybe one of the reasons why retail media is growing. I think a lot of what's going on there in retail media is really just a reclassification of spend from sort of traditional sales channels, which we may not have captured into retail media. Not, in fact, totally different from what happened 25 years ago in search, where what used to go on Yellow Pages, if you remember them, went to search. So I think you're seeing some of the same trend really happen in retail media.

Operator

Operator

As there are no additional questions waiting at this time, I would now like to hand the conference back over to Mark Read for closing remarks.

Mark Read

Management

So thanks very much. Thanks, everybody, for listening. So we look forward to seeing you again in January. We'll come back to you with a comprehensive picture of the opportunities ahead of us, particularly the impact of AI in our industry, what that means for WPP, and how we can help our clients. We'll also address the need for further efficiencies and margin improvement and demonstrate how, in an integrated fashion, we can deliver stronger returns to our shareholders. Thanks, everybody, for listening. And you can follow up with us directly if you've got any questions.