Earnings Labs

WPP plc (WPP)

Q2 2023 Earnings Call· Fri, Aug 4, 2023

$17.62

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Transcript

Mark Read

Management

Thank you very much and welcome everyone to WPP's First Half Results. I'm here in London with Joanne Wilson, our CFO at her first set of results; and Tom Waldron, who leads our Investor Relations team. So, please do read the statement on Page 2 of the presentation. It's important. Now in terms of the presentation on Page 3, I'll cover the highlights for the year then Joanne will take us through the financial performance, and I'll come back at the end on our strategic progress and the opportunities ahead of us before we take everyone's question. So turning to the highlights on Page 4. I'd say we had resilient growth in the first half overall with growth of 2%. And it's important to understand the breakdown of this growth so we can evaluate really what happened. To start with we did see growth slow from 2.9% in Q1 to 1.3% in Q2. And the world outside the US represents around 63% of our business. We actually saw growth accelerate from 3.2% in the first quarter to 5% in the second quarter and this reflected a pretty strong performance in the second quarter in the UK; in Germany at 6.6%; we saw a recovery in China from negative to 4.8% having been down 13% in the first quarter. All of this suggests actually a pretty robust client spending environment. Similarly, we saw continued growth in GroupM at 6.1% in both Q1 and Q2 globally, reflecting strong client spending. And our Public Relations business grew and perhaps somewhat more slowly, but actually fairly consistently at around 2% in both the first and the second quarter. Ogilvy, particularly had a strong performance in the first half, on the back of good client wins at the end of last year and really a…

Joanne Wilson

Management

So thank you Mark, and good morning everyone. So let me take you through the financial results for the first half of 2023. And I'll start on Slide 6. First half revenue less pass-through costs was up 5.5% on a reported basis and 2% on a like-for-like basis. Our reported growth includes a 2.6 percentage point tailwind from FX due to sterling weakness and a 0.9 percentage point contribution from M&A. As Mark mentioned, this is a softer like-for-like growth than we had anticipated impacted primarily by a slowdown in spending of our technology clients in the US and delays in technology-related projects. Turning to the headline income statement on Slide 7. Overall revenue less pass-through costs was £5.8 billion, an increase of 5.5% year-on-year with headline operating profit of £666 million, up 4.3% year-on-year. This resulted in a reported operating profit margin of 11.5%, down 10 basis points year-on-year. We have seen an adverse FX impact on margin of 20 basis points, as a result of the recent strengthening of sterling. On a constant currency basis, our margin improved 10 basis points year-on-year reflecting improved staff and other costs, offset by planned higher IT investment and higher severance costs. Moving down the P&L. As shared at prelims, income from associates excludes any contribution from Kantar in 2023 under IAS 28, due to its no carrying value on our balance sheet. Net finance costs increased during the year due to higher levels of debt and lower investment income as a result of a disposal in 2022, and that was partially offset by higher interest income. Reflecting the tax rate of 27% for the half and non-controlling interest of £37 million, the profit attributable to shareholders is £361 million resulting in a headline diluted EPS of 33.1 pence, which is broadly…

Mark Read

Management

Thanks very much Joanne. So, turning to our strategic progress, I wanted to update you on what we're seeing in the market what we're hearing from our clients and also share some more progress on our investments in AI. So, on page 20, it is clear that our clients are facing an ever more complex environment. Leave aside the macro uncertainty and the need to spend behind their brands to support price increases driven by inflation, the market environment just continues to post more opportunities and challenges. To name just three. First there are many new ways to reach consumers from Netflix taking advertising to Uber also building an advertising business. These present new opportunities to advertise, but also more fragmentation and complexity for clients. It is also a more political environment where positions taken a year ago on social issues that may have felt right are now coming under question. And thirdly, there's a whole topic of AI and how that may impact marketing and where clients need to invest. Faced with this on slide 21, we highlight what we see as our clients' priorities and let's take each one of these five priorities in turn. First on slide 22, it is evident that clients continue to invest in brands. Whether you look at the GroupM advertising spend forecast or the recent Citi CMO survey, you can see the advertising expenditure paid media is continuing to hold up well. We're seeing this in group where we achieved 6.1% growth in both the first and second quarters. And what as we covered we've seen some softness in Q2 in technology clients and technology-related projects. We don't see this as a broader pullback. These clients understand the importance of supporting their brands. And on slide 23, we continued to do well…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question today comes from Lisa Yang from Goldman Sachs. Lisa, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Lisa Yang

Analyst

Good morning and thanks for taking my question. I've got three. The first one is on the weakness you're seeing from tech clients. I'm just wondering, what has really changed in the last sort of one to two months that sort of caught you by surprise? What message were you getting from your tech clients in terms of when they would intend to basically resume spending? And I was just wondering, like, how much of that weakness is sort of more temporary and just a pure company growth spending as opposed to like a post-COVID reset and something a bit more structural. So any color on that would be really, really helpful. The second question is on margin. Obviously, you've done a great job at protecting the margin, despite weaker growth. But just thinking longer term, I think a question for Joanne, what makes you confident that you will still be able to achieve that sort of 15.5% to 16%? I think previously you said this, could be achievable in 2024 2025. So just wondering like based on your observations so far, what makes you confident you'll be able to get there? And what are the actions or sort of your weak revenues you're taking to improve your margin going forward? And the third question is on net new business. Obviously there's always some wins and losses. But could you maybe just help us quantify the potential impact on the net new business on the organic growth in H2 and also in 2024, based obviously on what has been announced so far. And you also said, there's a larger pipeline of potential new business activity. So how well -- how big of an opportunity you think this is for WPP? Thank you.

Mark Read

Management

Okay. So I'll take the first and the third question. And Joanne, will add anything and then discuss the margin. I think on tech clients, we had flagged that we've seen a little bit of weakness earlier in the year, but I think it really accelerated in the second quarter. And you can see that both in the numbers and also the impact really in the US. I'd say, as to -- I don't believe that it's a reset. I think others have said the same thing. I think that those companies are some of the world's largest advertisers. And the impact on us is greater given that we have I think 18% of our revenues from technology companies. So by implication, we'd probably be a little bit more impacted than others. Again, I don't think that it's -- that we see it as a reset. I think that they faced both, two or three years of strong growth. They had their own cutbacks to make. And then at the same time I think we're in an interesting point in the innovation cycle where, they've got a lot of products ready to market, but the business models are not necessarily entirely clear for them. And I think if they've become clearer I think that we'll see a greater volume of marketing around many of these new products. On the net new business number it is -- much as we'd like to win everything, that's impossible. And there are some things that we win and do well on like, Coca-Cola and there are other things that where we do less well on. I'd say, it has been a little bit being open with you a little bit disappointing in the first six months of the year. We did have one loss in the healthcare sector. So we'll have to see how that plays out over the balance of the year and into next year. It will be a little bit of a drag. So we're expecting towards sort of the fourth quarter and into next year. But as I said, we have a very strong pipeline. Perhaps, some of that pipeline is built up because of the length of decision-making in people. But we have got a strong pipeline. And we continue to have a strong offer. I think lead in many areas. There's, many strengths in WPP's business that I think will be reflected in our new business in the future. Joanne, you want to take the margin question?

Joanne Wilson

Management

Yes. Good morning, Lisa. Thanks for the question. So look, just in terms of the medium term 15.5% to 16%. Look, I'd say three months in there's nothing that I see and no reason why we won't get there within that timeframe. And what I would say is, more than that we are incredibly focused as a business on delivering our medium-term margin target. So yes, for now we're absolutely focused on that. In the first three months reflection is it is a flexible operating model, and we've shown that in the first half in how quickly we've been able to respond to some of the cautious spending signals that we have seen from clients. We ended June with our permanent head count down year-on-year and our freelance is actually down 20%. So a mixed benefit as well as an overall quantum. And that really helps, as we think about the cyclical business how we manage the margin around that. But looking more medium term, there are a number of areas where I see opportunities and it's probably worth just giving you a little bit of flavor on that. Back-office efficiencies, if I look at what the business has done in the last few years, I think a really great job in simplifying and driving efficiency across mostly at front-office including some of our long tail of smaller markets. And we have done work on our back-office as well including some off-shoring. And we are on a program as you know the ERP consolidation which will be a key enabler to standardize automate and then drive further efficiencies. So that is going to be an unlock for us. But that is a multiyear program as I think you know. And we always said that that would be towards the back…

Lisa Yang

Analyst

That’s very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Julien Roch from Barclays. Julien, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Julien Roch

Analyst

Yes. Morning, Joanne and Mark, Tom, Caitlin and Anthony. And welcome Joanne to your first results call. Proper baptism of fire I suppose. Now for my scene WPP has been one of my top picks. And today, I'm not getting much love. So apparently, your P&L are made up because you are more addicted to constant restructuring that I am to Grand Cru Burgundy. Believe you me that's not a good thing. And you generate poor cash flow because of working capital ouch. So that brings me to my first two questions. Joanne can you tell us how do you feel about restructuring charges and your view of a normalized level of restructuring by 2025 once the heavy lifting is done? I'm hoping for 0 as an answer. And two, can you tell us what you can do to your working capital about zero like most of the agencies. You are the only one splitting working capital between trade and non-trade with only one of the two at zero. And then third unrelated question. What was the organic in the first half 2023 of your offer in experience commerce and technology? Thank you.

Joanne Wilson

Management

Okay. Thank you, Julien for that introduction. And let me just take your first question on restructuring. As we embarked on this program, I guess when Mark took over we talked about the complex nature of WPP and the fragmentation across the business and it would be a multi-year program to unlock some of that. As I said, I think we've made good progress on our front office more to do in our back office. And in answer to the question of what should normalized restructuring be, I agree that it should be zero in any business. And we have elevated restructuring costs this year, most of which or a large chunk of which are non-cash relating to the property impairments. The restructuring costs relating to really two buckets our IT transformation -- IT infrastructure transformation and our ERP program is £180 million and that is cash. So through to 2025, I think we'll continue to see a restructuring cost around IT and ERP program. I think most of the IT restructuring cost will finish in 2024 and the ERP ones will certainly go on to 2025. So we'll see them for the next couple of years. But I mean looking at our cash more generally, we are also focused on how do we improve our cash conversion. I think our CapEx as well has been elevated in the last few years as we have embarked on our campus strategy, which has been a positive for the business. We've had to pivot a little bit with changes in ways of working post-COVID, but that is a much more efficient way of working for our people. And that CapEx will start to come down from 2024 onwards. So we'll see CapEx nudge down a bit. In terms of working capital, so…

Mark Read

Management

On ECT, Julien, I mean, I think, that it's basically flat in the first six months of this year. I think that probably shouldn't be surprising given what we talked about in terms of technology-related projects. And I think that the progress will return as that part of the business returns to growth as well. We continue to see it as a long-term driver of growth. I think what you've seen this year actually maybe the last 18 months is perhaps stronger growth in communications in the more traditional part of our business than people expected. So the ECT sector has not progressed perhaps as we would have expected, but I think that it continues to be a long-term faster growth part of our business. And we shouldn't forget that there's many parts of our communications business that are increasingly deeply driven as well.

Joanne Wilson

Management

Just to clarify, Julien. When Mark said flat, so it's flat as a percentage of our overall creative agencies revenue, so around 39%. So, we have seen some growth, but it's flat as a share of that revenue.

Mark Read

Management

Yes.

Julien Roch

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Matthew Walker from Credit Suisse. Matthew, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Matthew Walker

Analyst

Thanks a lot. Hi, Mark. Hi, Joanne. The first question is on tech. Obviously, you don't have a crystal ball, but the tech actual advertising numbers are getting better in terms of their revenues. So when do you think that they will start marketing again? Is it related to product innovation, or is it going to be related to their revenue growth? So could we see some in the second half of 2023, or do you think it's more likely that they rebound from a marketing point of view in 2024? Second question was you mentioned margin and staff utilization hopefully getting better. Do you have something like Marcel, which can increase utilization? Are you working on anything like that, or what is the sort of WPP solution to utilization? And then the final question was on the property. Are you going to increase the £600 million savings target as a result of the charges taken against property?

Mark Read

Management

Okay. So if I tackle technology clients, I mean, as you say, I don't have a crystal ball. I do think that there's a -- we're sort of at a unique point where growth has slowed. The companies have driven their share price by rebuilding margins. And we're at a point in the innovation cycle where there's an article in the FT today that talks about the number of new products being launched, but clients not -- but technology companies not entirely clear on what the business model is associated with that. And that very much bears in line the conversations I've had with these companies around the product innovation. So I would expect that to revert. But I think that we're rightly being cautious about the likelihood of that happening in the course of this year and that's reflected in perhaps the range of the guidance. If you think about our guidance on a second half basis it's sort of 1% to 4% in the second half and that's a fact reflected in that range. Now these clients haven't totally stopped spending. It's really that they pulled back and I don't think that that will continue forever. On the topic of sort of Marcel and staff allocation, we do have systems in each of our businesses that help us identify staff. We are using AI to pull staff from our systems to put on projects. Actually interesting Satalia, the AI company is used by one of the big four accounting service firms to allocate their staff to projects. And we have had a lot of success. And you will see some of the success we've had in reducing our freelance cost by better utilizing staff across the business both within our agencies and across our agencies. And that is something I think that we will continue to implement. Joanne, do you want take that.

Joanne Wilson

Management

Yes. Yes so just on the -- and hi, Matthew. Just on the property savings. So this year certainly underpins the £450 million, which gives us confidence we'll deliver at least the £450 million this year. But I mean looking at real estate as a whole there are other areas of inflation. Energy is higher. As we open campuses we see higher facilities costs associated with that. So all of that savings this year which we estimate to around £30 million doesn't necessarily flow to the bottom line. And in terms of the £600 million the way, I think, you should consider it is it accelerates us towards the £600 million rather than we'll now overlay the £600 million savings. £600 million is a bigger number, but certainly it will help us accelerate to that target.

Matthew Walker

Analyst

Okay. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Tom Singlehurst from Citi. Tom, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Tom Singlehurst

Analyst

Yes. Good morning. It's Tom here from Citi. Thank you for taking the question. I've got two broad questions although the first one is a two-parter, so I'll just warn you on that.

Mark Read

Management

It sounds like four, Tom.

Tom Singlehurst

Analyst

Yes, yes exactly. It's three questions really. First group of questions. If we characterize, it as being sort of spend that is quasi-CapEx that's being delayed and spend that is cost of goods sold that's continuing, I think, that's possibly the way we interpret GroupM chunking along at six and some of the project-based work coming under pressure. I suppose the first question is are you more exposed to CapEx style work in the US and COGS like work internationally? Is there a sort of structural exposure issue that explains the growth differential, or do you think it's macro? That was the first question. And then the second one is linked to that. When you speak to your fellow CEOs what is the fact they're looking for to help get the confidence to turn the CapEx style spend back on? So that's -- those are the first two questions. And then the second one is -- or the third one is you're guiding to 1.5% to 3% which is for the second half 1% to 4%. But given what's happening in the rest of the world and that's quite robust and possibly gets better are you really just saying that the US could be anywhere between minus 5% and plus 1% in the second half? Is all of that variance in the US essentially? Thank you.

Mark Read

Management

I don't even know where to begin Tom. I think the answer to your first question I think that's a good way of thinking about it in terms of sort of quality CapEx and quality cost of goods sold and it kind of explains why GroupM has continued to grow. I think the reason the impact is in the US and in our integrated creative agencies is more to do with where those clients spend most money and where we do most work for them. And also we happen to be probably stronger in our creative agencies and we probably do -- we do some media for those technology companies, but not media for all of those technology companies. So it's really a question of where the balance of work has fallen. I think if I talk about client confidence as at the CEO event earlier this week I think the confidence is not bad, but not good. I think it's probably pretty much where it was three months ago. You will have seen your peer Goldman reduce their recession risk. I mean there's a sense that U.S. inflation is a bit back under control but some nervousness as they start thinking about consumer spending. So I think we're really seeing -- trying to evaluate what would happen to technology spend and technology-related projects and how clients will start to sort of reinvest in the more as you call it CapEx-intensive parts of the business. I'll let Joanne sort of talk to the guidance for consistency.

Joanne Wilson

Management

Yes. So Tom, if you think about 1% to 4% in the second half maybe let me start at the bottom end of that. So in Q2 we saw our like-for-like drop to 1.3%. And as we roll forward I mean what are we seeing today? I think we'd say things feel like they're stabilizing so they're not getting any worse they're not getting any better. And if that like-for-like performance continued through the second half with a little bit more caution would that be about 1%. So that's really how we think about that bottom end albeit we do have softer comps in the second half. So it does assume a further deterioration and it's probably a cautious bottom end of our range as you'd expect. In terms of the top end the 4% that reflects really the softer comps that we see in the second half. So if you look at last year in H1 we grew at 0.9%. In H2 we grew 5.1%. So that should be a tailwind in the second half. And we have visibility of new business some new business that we won only at 2022 that's ramping up and we'll start to see more of a benefit from that as we go through the back half of Q3 and into Q4 and also some more recent new business wins in the last four weeks to six weeks that we will ramp up again sort of in that time period to the end of Q3 and through Q4. So good visibility on that. I think what is unknown of course is what stops. So in the tech space in Q2 we haven't lost clients. It's clients choosing to either reduce spend or delay projects across mostly ECT. And what happens to that in the second half that's really the unknown. And then of course as Mark talked of the macro it is still very uncertain business looking like that. And that's really resulting in the caution that we're seeing across our client base which our peers have talked about as well. So that's really how we're thinking about the 1% to 4% in the second half.

Tom Singlehurst

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We have no further questions. So I'd like to hand back the call to Mr. Mark Read for further closing remarks.

Mark Read

Management

Very good. Well thank you very much everybody for listening. And as you can see we did -- we had a mixed first half of the year. But I think we should take some comfort from the performance outside the United States. No doubt the United States was impacted as we talked about by the impact of technology companies. I think we should be pleased as well with the disciplined cost control and the improvement we made in the margin on a like-for-like basis in the first half of the year. We'll continue to focus on those elements in the rest of the year. So thank you everybody for joining us.