Chuck Swoboda
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is open
Yes, a couple of things, Brian. First of all, there is a lot of noise in the supply chain, but I tend to not react too fast to that over the many years of listening to the noise. Let's give it a quarter or two and see what turns into real pricing in the marketplace. So I've heard the same things, but my sense is that a lot of that talk is speculating on the lower end of the market. As factories get full, they are getting rid of some of their worst business, which is really not a part of the market Cree is in. So, we're going to continue to target a more normal trend, at least from the supply chain right now, but obviously we’ll monitor that. In terms of the other - and I'm going to talk margin first. The other thing to keep in mind is that obviously when our factory is a little less loaded, we typically have a little lower margin. That's normal. The other thing is we’re doing, and I think Mike mentioned this in his comments earlier, is we have a short-term headwind on LEDs. We are ramping up a new LED chip product family that goes across a couple of our product lines. That will cost us a little bit in margin here this quarter and maybe a little bit in the next. I think as we get that fully ramped up, we actually expect that to be a benefit to us. But as we go through the initial ramp up, that costs us a little bit of money in the short-term, but definitely the thing we want to go do as it helps the business overall. As far as revenue goes, normally, I think we're probably in a 5%, 6% range is what you probably saw in the last couple of years. The difference is that the way our quarters fell, we have the [indiscernible] impact of the Christmas, New Year's holiday and then again the Chinese holiday. So when we look at the number of selling days, it tends to have a bigger impact on this quarter than in the past. So if we just look at it on a ratio of days that we will have actively selling in the market, the 10% is a lot closer to the 6% in the past than you might think. So we don't see a significant change there one way or another. And obviously, if the market does stabilize and pricing really does improve, I would expect we would get the same benefit, but right now, we are taking a little bit more cautious view on the market.