Earnings Labs

Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG)

Q4 2017 Earnings Call· Tue, Dec 5, 2017

$27.68

-3.05%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to Warner Music Group's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year and Earnings Call for the period ended September 30, 2017. At the request of Warner Music Group, today's call is being recorded for replay purposes, and if you object, you may disconnect at any time. [Operator Instructions] Now I would like to turn today's call over to your host, Mr. James Steven, Executive Vice President, Communications and Marketing. You may begin, sir.

James Steven

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Warner Music Group's fiscal fourth quarter and year ended September 30, 2017 conference call. Both our earnings press release and the Form 10-K we filed this morning are available on our website. Today, our CEO, Steve Cooper, will update you on our business performance and strategy. Our Executive Vice President and CFO, Eric Levin, will discuss our financial condition and results. And then, we will take your questions. Before Steve's comments, let me remind you that this communication includes forward-looking statements that reflect the current views of Warner Music Group about future events and financial performance. All forward-looking statements are made as of today, and we disclaim any duty to update such statements. Our expectations, beliefs and projections are expressed in good faith, and we believe there is a reasonable basis for them. However, there can be no assurance that management's expectations, beliefs and projections or results or be achieved. Investors should not rely on forward-looking statements because they are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and other factors that can cause actual results that differ materially from our expectations. Information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in our earnings press release, our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. We plan to present certain non-GAAP results during this conference call. We have provided schedules reconciling these results to our GAAP results in our earnings press release posted on our website. Also, please note that all revenue figures and comparisons discussed today will be presented in constant currency, unless otherwise noted. With that, I'll turn it over to Steve Cooper.

Stephen Cooper

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Today, we're reporting our fifth consecutive year of global revenue growth. And for the last 2 years, we're up double digits. Over that same 5-year period, our OIBDA has gone from $333 million to $473 million, and our margin has grown by 1.6 percentage points. Our year-end cash balance was $647 million, the highest level in our history as a standalone company. These results reflect the fact that we've been outperforming the industry in an environment where the music business is beginning to return to health. Turning to the numbers for 2017. We grew total revenue by 12%, digital revenue by 26% and we generated cash from operations of $535 million. Our OIBDA for the year declined 7%. This was due to increased A&R investment and a material step up in deferred compensation, tied to the increase in the value of our company. Although the decline in OIBDA is unfortunate, the underlying factors continue to reflect our ongoing success. Before we dive into the specifics, I want to touch on the industry picture. You may recall that worldwide Recorded Music revenue grew 3% in calendar '15 and 6% in calendar '16. While full year '17 performance won't be available for a few months, the early read is very encouraging. At 3 years into the recovery, 2017 is likely to show the strongest year-over-year growth in almost 20 years. As we've said before, paying music subscribers represent only about 2% of the worldwide population, so there is tremendous room for growth across different audiences and territories. However, growth shouldn't be taken for granted, and we must not get carried away after only 3 years of relatively good industry news. Our streaming revenue grew an amazing 51% this fiscal year. It's by far Recorded…

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. Our momentum is solid and sustainable. We are driving revenue growth and turning it into cash, ending the year with nearly $650 million on the balance sheet, the highest level in our history as a standalone company. This is even after stepped-up investments in A&R and M&A. While every year may not be as great as the one we've just had, we're confident in the long-term path of our business. Turning to our fiscal '17 results. Total revenue grew 8% for the quarter and 12% for the year. We recently completed the divestments to the independent label community related to our purchase of Parlophone Label Group. These assets had about a 3% impact on revenue growth for the quarter and 2% for the year. There will be continued modest impact of these sales into 2018, given the timing of deals. From an OIBDA perspective, certain adjustments are necessary to make the year-over-year comparisons more meaningful. The details are in our press release. But in the quarter, we had a net $1 million gain versus a $1 million loss in the prior year quarter. The adjustments relate to our PLG-related asset sales, our headquarter move in L.A. and the move of our U.S. shared service center to Nashville. For the quarter, adjusted OIBDA declined 52% to $59 million. The decline was largely driven by the higher deferred variable compensation expense, Steve referenced as well as investment in A&R, timing of marketing and the impact of revenue mix. While we've mentioned higher variable comp expense as a factor over the past few quarters, in light of our consistently strong performance, there was a material step up in the fourth quarter. This is attributable to our long-term incentive plan, the value of which is tied to…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Aaron Watts with Deutsche Bank.

Aaron Watts

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Just a couple of questions for me. I think, Steve, I heard you say with A&R being around 1/3 of global revenues, I'm curious if you think there is a normalized level we should think about going forward for A&R spend relative to sort of what we've seen historically in trends?

Stephen Cooper

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

I think we're going to continue at least for the foreseeable, Aaron, to take an aggressive approach to A&R. Music is at the core of everything we do. And not only building our artists -- our existing artists' careers, requires ongoing A&R investment, but to find and build the careers of yet undiscovered artists also requires that investment. So I would expect to see our A&R spend to continue to be aggressive and continue to be a meaningful percentage of revenue.

Aaron Watts

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay. And then, secondly, just curious, the latest themes you're seeing and differentiated trends in digital streaming, and people paying for it here in the U.S. versus Europe? And what you think that means vis-a-vis the sustainability of the growth you're currently seeing and where that can head?

Stephen Cooper

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Well, I think that, as both Eric and I mentioned, that when you look at the current population of subscribers, in fact, even when you look at the current population of subscribers plus free users, it's really a very, very small percentage of the global population. Europe's growth, in certain parts of Europe, will slow down because, particularly in the Nordics, there's a very, very high percentage of music attributable to streaming. The U.S. looks like it still has substantial growth. And the rest of the world is in the process of coming up to speed as smart devices proliferate. So I continue to believe that we're going to see meaningful double-digit growth for at least the near future. What we will see, Aaron, is as streaming penetrates more heavily into the developing and emerging economies, I think we should expect that the average revenue per user will decline, because the pricing that has prevailed in Europe, Canada, the United States won't hold for many parts of the world. And we've already seen examples of that.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Davis Herbert (sic) [Hebert] with Wells Fargo Securities.

Davis Hebert

Analyst

You mentioned, Steve, you had recently renewed deals with streaming partners. I wonder if you could provide who those major streaming partners are? And how much runway we're looking at in terms of years until we see a new spate of renewals?

Stephen Cooper

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Well, our -- obviously, our major counterparties are Spotify, Apple, Google, YouTube, Amazon, Deezer and then dozens of smaller counterparties. Most of our deals, Davis, run 2 to 3 years. So on that basis, we will be back at the table in -- with most of our counterparties in '19 or '20.

Davis Hebert

Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. And I know you touched on aggressively investing in A&R. And obviously, we've seen a sea change in how people are consuming music, your top line certainly shows that. How has A&R expenses changed in terms of, not necessarily amount, but the makeup? I mean how are you investing differently today than perhaps you did 4 or 5 years ago?

Stephen Cooper

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Well, we've -- from my perspective, we have, by far in a way, the best operators in the business. And what we've done over the last 4 or 5 years is combined their experience and their judgments with more and more mining of data. And so we are taking the combination of incredibly good operators, combined with mining data, to create wider and wider nets for finding artists. And in this world of consumption, our net always has to get wider, we have to find, discover and build more artists, not only consistently, but constantly throughout the year. So we have broadened our reach, we've deepened our reach, and we are building our rosters as we speak, Davis, and that's going to continue.

Davis Hebert

Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. And on the Music Publishing side, it seemed to be a little bit of a step down in revenue growth for the quarter. And I never look at Warner on a quarter-to-quarter basis, I think, it's more reflective to look at it on a more of a 12-month basis, but I just didn't know if there was something happening in the Music Publishing business to say that we might see a slowdown in growth? Or should we expect things to kind of normalize in the next calendar -- I'm sorry fiscal year?

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst

Thanks, Davis, this is Eric. No, you made the right point, even in your question, and so Music Publishing, which has a portion of revenue, which is released from societies, which can be processed in a somewhat uneven fashion, there will be these kind of quarterly waves. But you're right, over an annualized basis, I think you see a more consistent picture, and we absolutely expect the growth that we've seen in Publishing to continue to be solid. The streaming revenue, which in past years, we were saying was lagging in Publishing, because it often gets processed through societies with a lag of 1 to maybe -- 1 year to maybe 18 months, has been showing through really strongly this year, and we expect that to continue and Publishing revenue continue to have a solid growth trajectory.

Davis Hebert

Analyst

Okay. And on that same note, just kind of looking at your revenue growth and the expenses -- the heavier expenses this quarter, I mean, would it be fair to say you would expect EBITDA growth over the next 12 months?

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst

So we don't give forecast, but we certainly always shoot to drive our business for both top and bottom line growth. We feel very good about our release schedule this year. We feel very good about our continued cost management plans and so we absolutely continue to drive for growth, and that is absolutely what we expect to achieve.

Davis Hebert

Analyst

Okay. And then last question from me. You have the 6.75% senior notes callable fairly high coupon. You pointed out your cost of capital is coming down meaningfully. Just wondering -- and you're also sitting on a lot of cash, and so I wonder if you could walk us through plans for the balance sheet for the near term?

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst

Well, we don't have -- so you're right, the 6.75s are callable in the spring. We're aware of that and are currently evaluating what our steps are as we've shown over the past 2 years, we're continuing to look at ways to optimize our capital structure, and that's absolutely something we're evaluating. What I would say is, when you talking about our cash balance and use of cash, we continue to focus on the priorities that we've talked about in the past. And first and foremost for us, is investing in growth, whether it's organic investment or strategic M&A that has [indiscernible] . In the past quarter, we acquired, as Steve mentioned, Spinnin', which is a larger acquisition that we've done -- than we've done the past few years. We were able to do that with cash and still end the year with $647 million of cash on the balance sheet. We then go and look at optimizing our capital structure. We've done a series of refis to reduce our cost of capital. We'll continue to look opportunistically at ways to optimize our capital structure and we balance in with that, dividends. We issued $84 million of dividends this year and again still ended the year with significant cash. And I think there's room for a balance of those 3 going forward.

Davis Hebert

Analyst

If you could return to the dividend, you said that -- what was that in the fiscal year?

Eric Joshua Levin

Analyst

In fiscal '17, we had $84 million of dividends.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And we have no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call over to Steve Cooper for closing remarks.

Stephen Cooper

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

So everyone, thanks again for joining us today. And all of us here at the Warner Music Group wish all of you a safe and wonderful holiday season. And we will, God it has come so quickly, I hate to say this, we'll chat with you in 2018. So everybody, have a wonderful holiday. I hope you all get some time off with your families and we'll talk to you soon. Bye-bye.

Operator

Operator

And this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.