Charlie Morrison
Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Michael, and good afternoon. As always, we appreciate your interest in Wingstop and your participation in our quarterly conference call. As noted in our earnings release, which hit the Wire a few minutes ago, our third quarter performance was exceptional. The continued strength in our business has once again allowed us to deliver on our shareholders’ expectations. With this momentum and the strong performance year-to-date, we are well positioned for 2018 to be our 15th consecutive year of positive same-store sales growth, an achievement we believe is unmatched in the industry. For the third quarter, total system-wide sales rose 15.1% driven by a 6.3% increase in domestic same-store sales and system-wide unit growth of nearly 12%. Consistent with what we’ve shared with you in our previous quarterly calls, our new unit development continues to strengthen during 2018 as our domestic franchisees accelerate their investment in Wingstop. During the quarter, we opened 27 net new restaurants and ended the quarter with 1215 locations worldwide. We remain confident in delivering strong unit growth driven by the momentum in the number of new restaurant commitment sales, as well as the healthiness of our existing pipeline. In our second quarter call, we told you that our third quarter-to-date comp was 4.5% and noted that the third quarter 2018 would be a tougher compared to the prior year. We were encouraged by the acceleration we saw in the comp for the balance of the third quarter largely driven by transaction growth resulting in 6.3% same-store sales growth for the full quarter. Our comp continues to reflect some above normal ticket growth, which we believe to be a transitory issue. We expect above normal ticket growth to be reflected in our comp until we lap the pricing actions taken by our franchisees late last year when record high wing inflation occurred. However, we are very pleased with the results of the transaction driving initiatives we put in place to mitigate the pricing. As you may recall, these initiatives we put in place to drive transactions included; leveraging digital advertising to promote our $0.60 boneless wings on Mondays and Tuesdays. The introduction of two versions of loaded fries and fried corn as new sides which replaced less popular, more labor-intensive options. And last but not least certainly, the launch of a $15.99 Big Night In Boneless Bundle, which was supported by national TV and digital media advertising. This marked the first time that we have leveraged our national scale for a product bundle like this. This transaction-driven momentum set the stage for our Annual Franchise Convention that we held in Las Vegas in early October. Our franchisees continued to express excitement and enthusiasm for the Wingstop brand. At the convention, we shared our strategy to leverage an additional 1% franchisee contribution to our advertising front and it was very well received. As we have previously noted, Wingstop’s current brand awareness levels are more than 20 percentage points below other large franchise restaurant brands. And as you move down, the brand strength funneled from awareness to purchase consideration, we are as much as 30 percentage points below that same group. We believe the implementation of the additional 1% in January 2019 will boost our awareness and aid consideration as we move through the calendar year. Our unit development and same-store sales growth in the third quarter translated to total revenue growth of 15.5% and increases in adjusted EBITDA and EPS of 23.3% and 31.3% respectively, demonstrating the strong flow through of the Wingstop model. The continued strong margins in our company-owned restaurants contributed to the increases in adjusted EBITDA and EPS. We benefited from over 1300 basis point improvement in margins at our company-owned restaurants due to favorable wing prices and leverage on labor and other operating expenses from continued same-store sales growth. At our Franchisee Convention, we discussed how franchisees were seeing similar margin improvements further fueling their positive sentiments. This margin improvement further enhances our best-in-class unit level economics. Our domestic target year one average unit volume per Wingstop is $820,000. We believe our franchisees can achieve a year two unlevered cash-on-cash return of approximately 35% to 40%. At our domestic system average unit volume of $1.1 million, these returns exceed 50%. These industry-leading returns are driving our unit growth and the reason that existing franchisees continued to reinvest and grow the Wingstop system. Existing franchisees comprise approximately 80% of the pipeline for new unit development. Our strategy for continued growth has been consistent since our IPO in 2015. Our plan to continue delivering industry-leading results over the long-term is predicated on four key long-term growth strategies. First, growing brand awareness as we accelerate our national advertising, furthering our digital expansion, the national rollout delivery and continued global unit expansion. We have already discussed leveraging an additional 1% of sales towards national advertising to take advantage of the opportunity to grow brand awareness. So let’s push more deeply into the other three key strategies. Revenue growth through our digital channel expansion is one of our key top-line drivers. Digital sales rose 360 basis points from Q3 last year to 25.4% of total sales for the current quarter. This was also 110 basis points higher than Q2 of this year, almost 80% of the entire domestic restaurant base now generates more than 20% of sales from digital channels, which is up from 75% in Q2. In addition to providing efficiencies within the four walls of the restaurant, our average digital check is $5 higher than our non-digital average check of just $17. Recall that about 75% of our business is takeout and a large percentage of orders still come in over the phone. So we believe that we have ample incentive and opportunity for further digital expansion. We continue to make progress against several initiatives that we believe will position Wingstop to continue to further drive digital sales. Our new custom built App and website is on schedule to start testing this quarter. This App and website will replace a third-party, white-label product that is currently in place and will provide an improved guest experience and will be optimized to support our national rollout of delivery. CRM, we continue to build out our CRM platform as we gather guest data that will position us for a more engaging interaction with our guests. Over time, this platform will integrate with the new App to serve up custom messages that we believe will drive higher engagement and check averages. Lastly, artificial intelligence-based voice ordering, we continue to work on natural voice recognition technology for orders that come in through the phone so that they could be converted into digital orders. These are just a few of the near-term technologies that we are working on. Others are down the road, but we are excited about the progress we are making here and long-term, we see no reason why our digital sales cannot approach and perhaps exceed the levels of some national pizza chains. Our goal is to digitize every Wingstop transaction. Next is delivery. We announced on our last call that we have completed the testing and validation to begin rolling out delivery nationally. As background, we have proven the market demand for delivery in 2017 and early 2018 in three test markets. In all three test markets, we experienced sustained mid-to-high single-digit sales lifts. We have been able to demonstrate that the lift in sales from delivery is highly incremental and profitable at the restaurant level. In fact, the profitability is further enhanced by the checklist we have seen in our delivery test which is even higher than the $5 average checklist that we see on ordinary digital orders. We started the national rollout of delivery this month by expanding to the Denver market, which has about 20 Wingstop restaurants. Denver was a logical next step for us because it presented a smaller, easier to manage market for validating our delivery playbook and it is a strong market for Door Dash, our third-party delivery partner. While it’s still early, we are very encouraged with the sales lift and early indications of incrementality in the Denver market, which is performing similar to what we experienced in our three test markets over the past year. In November, we anticipate launching delivery in the Los Angeles market, our largest domestic market from a restaurant count perspective. Following a successful launch in Los Angeles, we plan to add delivery in the Houston market bringing us to roughly 25% of our domestic footprint offering delivery by the end of 2018. We are excited about the potential impact to delivery, which we believe will only further strengthen the unit level economic while driving top-line sales growth and profitability for our franchisees. We believe the space, market-by-market approach to our rollout of delivery would help us ensure that we deliver on our guest expectations while introducing new guests to the Wingstop brand with a great initial experience. We believe by the end of 2019, we should have delivery available to over 80% of the domestic system. Finally, we continue to grow our global footprint, and as we make progress against our vision of becoming a top-10 global restaurant brand, from an international perspective, we opened eight restaurants during Q3 and 24 restaurants year-to-date ending the quarter with 130 international restaurants in nine countries. With chicken as the most highly consumed protein worldwide, and the flexibility of our model, our brand is highly portable to markets across the globe. Within the next few weeks, we are scheduled to open our first Wingstop in London with new market openings in France and Australia following in 2019. Our focus over the near-term is to ensure that we make the right investments and resources to ensure these new markets open successfully. One item I wanted to mention that will be reported in the fourth quarter results, is a conscious decision made during the third quarter to sever our relationship with our franchisee in the Philippines and exit the market. Although we generated a lot of fans in the Philippines, and multiple successful restaurants during our four year history, our ability to delivery sustainable growth was in consulate with our franchisee’s overall plans for other businesses. While this market represents one of our early market entries, we do not believe that the Philippines is a priority market for our global expansion and add its full potential would represent less than 1% of what we believe is our broader international opportunity. Thus, we decided to focus our resources on higher priority markets. So by the end of October, we will close the 11 Philippine restaurants, slightly bringing down net new unit growth from our previous expectation of 12% to approximately 11% for the fiscal year 2018. We do not have any other situations similar to the Philippines and remain confident that we have the right partners in the right countries as we continue our growth journey overseas. When you combine the long-term international development opportunity with our domestic footprint, a roughly a third of its potential, we believe there is a significant runway for growth in front of us. We will build upon what we have already accomplished across the four key strategic priorities of national advertising, digital expansion, delivery and global developments. We believe Wingstop is truly a brand in a category of one. We lack a true competitor and have multiple long-term sales drivers and enjoy a significant amount of white space for our continued growth. The strong growth of our business is one that is executed in an asset light, shareholder-friendly model. As you likely saw in our last – in our release last week, we are in the process of pursuing a securitized financing to refinance our current variable rate debt. Michael will elaborate further but our second refinancing within 2018 is a true demonstration of the strength of our model. To our knowledge, Wingstop’s track record is unmatched in our industry at such an early stage of being a public company. We believe that the continued strength of our domestic economic model and the opportunity we have with our emerging international business demonstrates the promise of our vision of becoming a top-10 global restaurant brand. With that, I will turn it over to Michael.