Theodore Dosch
Analyst · Longbow Research
Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. As a reminder, today's earnings release includes non-GAAP measures, which are reconciled to the GAAP measures in the financial tables that accompany our release and are in the appendix of our accompanying slide presentation. We believe the non-GAAP measures we disclose provide the best representation of our ongoing operational performance. Bill covered our strong sales and gross margin performance, so I will begin with operating expense. Looking at Slide 10, fourth quarter operating expense of $342.7 million compares to prior year operating expense of $317.8 million. Excluding the non-GAAP operating expense items detailed on Page 11 of our release, adjusted operating expense increased 10.7% or $32.2 million to $333.8 million. As a percentage of sales, current quarter adjusted operating expense of 15.8% compares to 15.0%. In addition to higher volume, the primary drivers of the increase in adjusted operating expense were $7.4 million related to the acquired companies, $7.2 million related to our innovation and business transformation initiatives and inflationary impacts, including higher freight and employee expenses. While we have taken actions to help mitigate the impact, freight expense remains a year-over-year headwind. Adjusted EBITDA was flat at $109 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased in all 3 business segments, offset by investment in innovation and business transformation expenses at corporate. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.1% compares to 5.4% in the prior year. Let me now review the adjusted EBITDA trends by segment. Beginning with NSS, as shown on Slide 13, adjusted EBITDA increased 5.2% to $84 million. The resulting adjusted EBITDA margin of 7.5% compares to 7.6%. The change reflects gross margin improvement, offset by higher operating expense, including freight increases and incentive compensation. On a sequential basis, NSS adjusted EBITDA increased by 30 basis points, driven by gross margin improvement. EES adjusted EBITDA increased 1.8% to $34 million, resulting in a 20 basis point improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin to 5.9%. The increase was driven by gross margin improvement, partially offset by higher employee costs, including incentive compensation. On a sequential basis, adjusted EBITDA of $34 million compares to $37 million. Finally, UPS adjusted EBITDA of $26 million compares to $21 million. The corresponding adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.9% compares to 5.4%. Strong performance was driven by volume growth combined with strong operating expense leverage resulting in an adjusted EBITDA leverage of 1.9x. On a sequential basis, UPS adjusted EBITDA margin improved 50 basis points, driven by both gross margin improvement and strong operating expense leverage. Moving down the income statement. Interest expense of $19.8 million compares to $19 million. The increase was driven by higher average borrowings under the revolving lines of credit due to the recent acquisitions and to support volume-driven higher working capital requirements. We expect interest expense to increase slightly in the first quarter of 2019 from our Q4 level. During the fourth quarter, we refinanced $350 million of 5 5/8% senior notes due 2019, with $250 million of 6% senior notes due 2025, and the borrowings under the revolving lines of credit. And we also amended and extended our revolving credit facilities to 2023. We were extremely pleased with these successful transactions in light of the volatile market conditions in the fourth quarter, and believe we have ensured adequate capital liquidity for the next several years. As a result of the refinancing, we have pushed out our debt maturities and increased our financial flexibility. Our next note maturity is 2021, and our capital structure is in line with our long-term strategic targets. Looking at the foreign exchange and other expense line, we had $7.6 million compared to $100,000 in the prior year quarter. Excluding the $4.6 million of expense related to the loss on the extinguishment of the 2019 senior notes, the adjusted FX and other expense of $3 million compares to just $100,000 in the prior year. This increase was primarily currency driven. Turning to taxes, our fourth quarter 2018 adjusted effective tax rate of 28.6% compares to 38.5%. For the full year, our 2018 non-GAAP ETR of 29.3% compares to 37.8% in 2017, with the favorable rate changes in both the fourth quarter and full year rates due primarily to the impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and our country mix of earnings. Our diluted share count was 34.1 million shares. Looking ahead, we would expect our share count to be approximately 34.2 million in 2019. Moving down to EPS. Our adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.53 increased by 9% or $0.12 from the year ago quarter. As we discussed, both copper and currency were headwinds in the quarter. The $27.5 million impact on sales translates into a $0.10 unfavorable impact on diluted EPS with a disproportionate impact on the EES segment. Turning to Slide 16, our working capital ratio of 18.2% compares to 18.4% in the prior year quarter. This 20 basis point improvement was driven by our ongoing focus on working capital efficiency. While working capital dollars have increased to support the higher sales growth, we continue to drive improvements in our working capital processes to enable more efficient use of our balance sheet. We generated $138 million in cash from operations in 2018, which compares to $184 million in 2017, with the change driven by an increase in working capital to support growth in the business, despite the improvement in working capital efficiency. Looking ahead, we expect to generate cash flow from operations of $150 million to $175 million for the full year 2019. Finally, in addition to investing $150 million in the security acquisitions, we invested $42.4 million in capital expenditures in 2018 compared to $41.1 million in 2017. We expect to invest $55 million to $60 million in capital expenditures in 2019, with the year-over-year increase primarily due to our increased investment in innovation and business transformation. Turning to Slide 17, our fourth quarter 2018 debt-to-capital ratio of 44.4% compares to 46.1% at year-end 2017, slightly below our target range of 45% to 50%. Our debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3x is at the high end of our target range of 2.5 to 3x. Both metrics reflect the impact of the Q2 security acquisitions. A weighted average cost of borrowed capital of 5.5% compares to 5.6% at the end of 2017, and our liquidity position remains strong with total available liquidity under revolving lines of credit and secured accounts receivable and inventory facilities of $599 million at the end of the quarter. Turning to our outlook for sales growth. As Bill said, our outlook range for full year 2019 organic growth is 3% to 6%, which compares to 2018 organic growth of 4.8%. Based on trends in the business through the month of January and supported by generally favorable economic indicators, we are estimating first quarter 2019 organic growth to be in the 3% to 5% range. As Bill indicated, we expect gross margin to improve for the year by 20 to 40 basis points. In the fourth quarter, we saw a 50 basis point improvement in year-over-year margin. And as we look at the first quarter, we expect a similar 40 to 50 basis point improvement in gross margin on a year-over-year basis. Turning to operating expense. For the full year, we expect adjusted operating expense as a percent of sales to increase slightly. However, as Bill said, we expect the actions we are taking to improve gross margin will both fund investment and innovation and create operating margin expansion. Looking at the first quarter, we expect our adjusted operating expense dollars to decrease slightly on a sequential basis due to somewhat lower volume. To further help with your modeling, I will provide our estimates for the impacts of currency, copper and acquisition on our first quarter and full year 2019 sales, as detailed on Slide 19 of today's presentation. Based on the current value of the U.S. dollar against other currencies, we estimate a sales headwind of $25 million to $30 million for the first quarter and a headwind of $40 million to $50 million for the full year. Based on recent copper prices of approximately $2.70 a pound, we estimate unfavorable sales impacts of $10 million to $15 million in the first quarter and $25 million to $30 million for the full year. As a reminder, average copper price was $3.14 in the first quarter of last year and $2.93 for the full year of 2018. Finally, the sales impact from the acquired businesses will be approximately $25 million in the first quarter and $50 million for the full year, reflecting an incremental five months of ownership. Let me conclude my comments by reiterating that we were pleased to deliver strong sales growth in the fourth quarter and for the full year. We believe we have significant opportunity to leverage our unique set of products and innovative solutions across our global network. As we discussed, our highest priority remains improving gross margin, and we are pleased that we are beginning to see the benefits of the actions we have implemented. We are also in the early stages of our business transformation, which will deliver state-of-the-art customer-facing technologies and best-in-class enterprise efficiencies. We expect our investment and innovation to deliver significant long-term benefits with the goals of improving profitability, generating strong cash flow from operations and creating value for all of our stakeholders. With that, we will now open the call for questions.