Francis J. Shammo
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question
Thank you, Mike. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us today. 2016 continues to be a transformational year for us just as we had outlined over a year ago. During this transformation we are executing on a very challenging competitive environment, investing and positioning for the future growth and returning value to our shareholders. Competitive activity in the wireless market increased during the third quarter as expected and we responded in a measured way to grow and retain our valuable customer base by introducing new wireless plans and discipline promotions. We have been successful in retaining our high value postpaid smartphone base and improving service revenue trends. In the wireline market we returned to a strong quarter of execution following the strike that impacted the second quarter. We grew our Fios base and improved the consumer revenue trend. We are focused on continuously improving our overall cost structure through process improvements and operating efficiencies. This execution enabled us to deliver overall strong margins and adjusted earnings per share. We remain focused on our disciplined capital allocation that consists of investing for growth, returning value to shareholders and preserving our strong balance sheet. Our investments are consistent with our three-tier strategy starting with investing in our network by expanding our wireless capacity and prepositioning for future growth in both 4G and 5G. We continue to lead in all third-party measures for network performance and reliability. We are investing in new growth businesses in digital media technology to extend our ability to monetize the usage on our networks and create new revenue streams from advertising, content rights, telematics and other IOT solutions. In early September, our Board of Directors approved a 2.2% dividend increase which raises our annualized dividend to $2.31 per share. This was the 10th consecutive year that our board has approved a dividend increase endorsing their confidence in the strength of our balance sheet and returning value to our shareholders. Let's move to third quarter performance in more detail starting with our consolidated results on Slide 6. Our third quarter results highlight our ability to execute in a challenging environment and drive strong operating and financial results. On a reported basis, total operating revenue decreased 6.7% in the third quarter. This decrease was primarily due to the sale of the three wireline markets to Frontier which closed on April 1, 2016 and the wireless commercial pricing model change. Excluding the impact of wireline divestiture, consolidated revenue was down 2.9%. In terms of wireless revenue, the service revenue trend was on track with our expectations for the migration of our postpaid subscriber base to unsubsidized price plans and optimization of our current customers to the new pricing plans. Equipment revenue, which started the quarter slowly due to low volumes ended strong with the introduction of the iPhone 7. Wireline revenue trends were consistent with previous quarters. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA totaled $11.3 billion up 1% and our adjusted EBITDA margin was 36.5% up 140 basis points in the quarter. We remain focused on enhancing our overall cost structure by improving productivity and gaining efficiencies in our operations throughout the business which we expect will enable us to deliver a strong earnings profile into the future. Let's turn now to cash flows and the balance sheet on Slide 7. Cash flows from operations were $4.8 billion in the third quarter. Keep in mind as we shift to the asset-backed securitization model, there is $2.6 billion of cash that is reflected in the financing section of the cash flow statement, while in prior periods under the off-balance-sheet securitization model this funding would have flowed from cash flow from operations. Free cash flow for the nine months of the year totaled $6.2 billion which was impacted by our on balance sheet securitization transactions. Cash taxes for the quarter were higher compared to a year ago primarily due to transaction tax payments of $2.4 billion. This amount represented the majority of total taxes due for the gain on the sale of our wireline operations to Frontier earlier this year. The remainder is expected to be paid next quarter. The increase was also affected by certain benefits that we realized in prior periods which did not occur in this period. Capital expenditures were $4.1 billion in the quarter driven by increased spending in wireless for densification and in wireline for Fios installations as volumes expanded post work stoppage. We now expect full year 2016 capital expenditures to be at the low end of the range of $17.2 billion to $17.7 billion. We ended the quarter with $106.6 billion of total debt which includes $2.6 billion of asset-backed securitization debt, net debt of $100.2 billion and a ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 2.3 times. The net debt includes the asset-backed securitization debt. We remain on track to return to our pre-Vodafone credit rating profile by the 2018 to 2019 timeframe. Now let's move into reviews of the segments starting with wireless on Slide 8. Service revenue of $16.7 billion declined 5.2% for the quarter compared to a decline of 5.4% in the second quarter. Service revenue plus installment billings increased 2.3% to $19.3 billion in the third quarter. Service revenue trends are consistent with our expectations as the postpaid base migrates to the unsubsidized price plans. We now have approximately 60% of our postpaid phone customers on the unsubsidized price plans. We continue to expect that we will return to year-over-year service revenue growth by the end of 2017. Equipment revenue was $4.1 billion down 3.9% due to lower equipment volumes. The percentage of phone activations on device payment plans was about 70% in the third quarter compared with about 67% in the second quarter. We expect the take rate for device payment plans for the fourth quarter to be around 70% given the higher seasonal consumer mix of volumes. During the quarter 6.1 million phones were activated on a device payment plan. In total we have about 35.8 million phone connections activated on the device payment plan representing 41% of our postpaid phone base. Total wireless operating revenues decreased 3.9% in the quarter to $22.1 billion. The cost structure in wireless continues to improve driven by streamlining of business process improvements in distribution, care and supply chain resulting in higher digital customer contact and lower transaction costs. In terms of profitability, we generated $9.9 billion of segment EBITDA in the quarter, flat with last year and we had a segment EBITDA margin of 44.9% up 170 basis points from 43.2%. Now let's take a closer look at wireless additions on Slide 9. Total postpaid net adds, which we do not include any wholesale connections including Internet of Things totaled 442,000. Within the postpaid net additions we added 357,000 new 4G smartphones in the quarter which were partially offset by a net decline of 3G smartphones resulting in 242,000 net new high-quality smartphones. Overall net phone additions were a negative 36,000 due to the offset of basic phones and softer phone gross additions. Tablet net additions totaled 221,000. All other postpaid net additions totaled 257,000 with Verizon Wireless retail Hum devices being the primary driver. Postpaid gross additions were 3.8 million down from 4.2 million and up slightly from last quarter. Retail postpaid churn was 1.04% up 11 basis points driven by tablet churn. As we have previously discussed, we expect this higher rate of tablet churn to continue into the first half of next year as two-year agreements associated with prior tablet promotional offers roll off. We continue to see strong retention in our retail postpaid phone base. Postpaid phone churn was up 2 basis points from a year ago and remain below 0.90% for the sixth consecutive quarter. Net prepaid additions increased to 83,000 for the quarter which is a significant improvement sequentially and from the prior year due to the impact of new price plans for our prepaid market. We ended the quarter with 113.7 million total retail connections excluding all wholesale connections. Our industry-leading postpaid connection base grew 3% to 108.2 million and our prepay connections totaled 5.5 million. Let's now take a look at 4G device activations and upgrades on Slide 10. Total postpaid device activations were 10.7 million in the quarter up 12.2% sequentially and down nearly 7.7% on a year-over-year basis. Approximately 82% of these activations were phones with tablets accounting for the majority of other device activations. About 6.3% of our retail postpaid base upgraded to a new device in the third quarter. This represents a decline of 70 basis points year-over-year and up from 5.4% in the prior quarter. Our upgrades and momentum in the third quarter were negatively impacted by the recall of the Note 7. Additionally, we experienced an iPhone 7 backlog primarily for upgrades. Let's move next to our Wireline segment starting with the review of our consumer and mass-markets revenue performance on Slide 11. Consumer revenue increased 0.2% at mass market's which include small business declined 0.5%. Fios total revenue grew 4.4% with consumer Fios revenue rising 4.2%. The growth in Fios was driven by a higher customer base, strong retention programs and the demand for higher Internet speeds. Approximately 16% of our Fios Internet based has opted for speeds of 100 Mb or greater. We continue to see strong demand consistent with prior quarters for custom TV. During the third quarter we returned to normal seasonal volumes ahead of our expectations coming out of the work stoppage. Fios Internet subscriber growth was strong in the third quarter. In broadband we added 90,000 net Fios customers for the quarter which were at pre-work stoppage levels. Overall net broadband subscribers increased by 24,000 in the quarter. Fios Internet penetration was 40.4% in the quarter compared to 40.1% representing an increase of 30 basis points. In Fios video we added 36,000 net customers in the quarter which was also consistent with pre-work stoppage levels. Fios video penetration was 34.5% in the quarter compared to 35.4% representing a decline of 90 basis points driven by increased open-for-sale markets and softer linear TV demand. We continue to see an opportunity to further penetrate the Fios markets we serve. Let's turn to Slide 12 and cover enterprise and wholesale as well as the Wireline segment in total. Total operating revenues for the Wireline segment declined 2.3% in the third quarter consistent with recent trends. In the third quarter, global enterprise revenue declined 3.4% and on a constant currency basis the decline was about 2.9%. In our wholesale business, revenues decreased 3.9% in the third quarter. Trends in our global enterprise and wholesale businesses remained consistent with prior periods. However, we expect that in the fourth quarter we will see a decline in wholesale in the range of 7% to 9% due to nonrecurring items in the prior year. Wireline segment EBITDA margin was 21.2% compared to 18.9% in the period last year up 230 basis points due to Fios growth and cost management. We believe we will continue to make progress in expanding the Wireline EBITDA margin. As we expected, Wireline capital spending levels increased in the third quarter as we returned to normal operations after the work stoppage in the second quarter. Let's move next to Slide 13 and cover strategic positioning and investments. Network leadership is our primary objective in the markets we serve. We are investing in our networks and building capacity for the future and positioning our business for new industry growth opportunities. Recently, we launched LTE Advanced in over 460 markets delivering improved service to more than 90% of the U.S. population. We are steadily advancing our cloud and software defined network architecture and moving forward aggressively with our densification efforts and prepositioning for 5G technology. Our one fiber strategy initiative is on track and we are building our next-generation fiber network in the city of Boston. In July the FCC approved our millimeter wave spectrum band lease agreement with XO Communications clearing the way for testing 5G technology in different environments. Our 5G technical trials have been successful and we are now planning a commercial pilot program in 2017 where we will test the technology in different environments with several infrastructure providers to determine ability to scale and operationalized fixed wireless product offerings. Based on the outcome of our commercial pilot program, Verizon intends to be the first company to launch a 5G fixed wireless broadband solution in the United States. In the third quarter network usage increased 45%. Digital video is the primary driver of traffic on our network. In order to participate in the digital media value chain, we have assembled assets to grow in the digital media business. We have accumulated a large portfolio of digital rights and invested in specific assets to distribute, publish and create digital content. In order to drive incremental value from digital media traffic we are scaling and leveraging AOL's ADTECH capabilities to monetize digital impressions on and off our network. We believe we are strategically well-positioned with the right set of assets to grow in this expanding market. In the third quarter AOL's net revenue measured as gross revenue less traffic acquisition costs amounted to $486 million which represented an increase of approximately 10%. Net revenue growth was primarily driven by advertising revenue from programmatic platforms. Over the next two quarters we expect AOL net revenue to follow seasonal trends, but year-over-year growth to be lower due to one-time benefits in the prior year from the Microsoft deal especially in the fourth quarter. We are seeing strong demand from advertisers for AOL's expanding programmatic capabilities and high quality data analytic tools. We expect that the pending acquisition of Yahoo will further expand our scale in the digital media space. This would place us in a unique position to serve unmet customer needs, participate in digital publishing and video and to monetize the content. On the go90 platform, the level of viewer engagement as measured by daily usage has been rising steadily since re-platforming the application earlier this summer. In the third quarter, the average daily usage in go90 surpassed more than 30 minutes per viewer with less than 20% of traffic served on the Verizon wireless network. While still early in its product cycle, we are very encouraged by the traction with users primarily attracted by unique content. For example in July we introduced an original streaming monthly reality series titled "The Runner." Viewers can watch episodes aired three times daily via the go90 app, go90.com and AOL.com. The innovative game format with an emphasis on live user participation contributed to strong usage and engagement. During the quarter we expanded go90 participation in FreeBee Data 360, a sponsor data service which allows customers to screen live sports including NFL games and music without accounting against the Verizon data. We are seeing increased engagement in the application. In September with our partner Hearst, we announced the formation of Complex Networks which brings together complex and digital video networks RatedRed.com and seriously.tv. In the United States Complex reaches more than half of the male 18 to 24 population and it is one of the largest properties for this population. The content produced in this partnership will be available on go90 which we expect will further increase user engagement and traffic growth. The rapidly evolving Internet of Things market provides us with new business opportunities for our customers globally. We intend to scale Telematics, ThingSpace, Smart City and other IOT solutions globally. Organically IOT revenues were $217 million up 24% from the comparable period last year. Including two months of Telogis activity IOT revenues were up more than 30% in the quarter. IOT revenues were primarily driven by Telematics. Telogis which closed in July expands our Telematics capabilities targeted for the enterprise space. In July we announced a definitive agreement to acquire Fleetmatics, a global software-as-a-service based telematics provider in the small and medium-sized business space for $2.4 billion. The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2016. In September we completed the purchase of Sensity Systems, a leading provider of IOT solutions for Smart City. This transaction closed in October. The acquisition adds a leading comprehensive suite of Smart City solutions to our IOT platform. We are now focused on integrating the assets. Now let's turn to Slide 14 for an overall summary. As we stated coming into the year, 2016 is a significant transformational year for us. We continue to deliver consistent performance during this transitional period. We are executing in a competitive environment. For the third quarter, despite a challenging competitive environment in wireless we added over 42,000 postpaid net customers, retained high-value postpaid phone customers and improved our wireless service revenue trends. In Wireline, Fios performance was ahead of our expectations. In both wireless and wireline, we have made significant progress on improving our cost structure. We continue to invest in our networks and platforms to be the network leader in the markets we serve and we are setting up the business to return to growth in 2017. We are focused on developing new business models and revenue streams. In our new businesses we are scaling our media assets and Internet of Things platforms to position us for long-term growth and are demonstrating progress. As we enter the final quarter of the year, we are confident in our ability to execute, deliver results and return value to shareholders while transforming the business. We are on course for our 2016 guidance and expectations. Full-year adjusted earnings to be at a level comparable to 2015 excluding the $0.07 impact of work stoppage. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin consistent with full-year 2015, consolidated capital spending at the low end of the $17.2 billion to $17.7 billion range. We made a full year total pension contribution of approximately $750 million which consists of minimum funding of approximately $550 million and a discretionary contribution of about $200 million. We expect our full year 2016 effective tax rate to be in the range of 35% to 36%. While we will be providing more guidance in January, we expect that organically consolidated revenue growth in 2017 will be at a level consistent with GDP growth for that year and adjusted EPS growth will be at normal levels. With that, I will turn the call back to Mike, so we can get your questions.