Michael Goettler
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thank you, Robert, and good morning, everyone. And thanks also to Albert for the introduction and kind words. I would also like to welcome both the Mylan and the Upjohn employees who may be listening to this call. We have a truly exciting future ahead of us. I'd also like to thank Heather. I know that I have big shoes to fill following your 27-year legacy at Mylan, and I'm honored to be leading the new combined company into an exciting future for patients, shareholders and for our colleagues.
The new company is being formed through a Reverse Morris Trust transaction that is expected to be tax-free for Pfizer shareholders. It requires approval by Mylan shareholders but not the Pfizer shareholders, and we expect to close in mid-2020. And upon completion, Pfizer shareholders will own 57% of the combined company, Mylan shareholders will own 43% of the company. Importantly, the combined company will have lower gross debt levels than Mylan stand-alone, and we expect solid investment-grade debt ratings. We seek positive feedback from Moody's, S&P and Fitch. And we expect the agencies to provide rating guidance to the market in short order.
We anticipate approximately $24.5 billion of total debt, including $12 billion of gross debt from Upjohn, for which debt proceeds will be retained by Pfizer. The new company and the new management is strongly committed to shareholder-friendly capital allocation, and we expect to be starting to pay a dividend that is greater or equal to 25% of free cash flow from the first full quarter post-closing.
As Robert already mentioned, Mylan will redomicile to the United States, and the combined company will be incorporated in Delaware. It will be run by a best-in-class management team with strong executive talent from both companies, a strong Board of Directors with 8 Mylan appointees, 3 Pfizer appointees in addition to the Executive Chair and the CEO. The combined Board will fully declassify by 2023. And finally, the new company will be operating through 3 global centers in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; Shanghai, China, which is Upjohn's current global headquarter; and Hyderabad, India.
We believe today's announcement is exciting news for patients and that this transaction creates a one-of-a-kind new champion for global health. Patients that rely on our medicines will benefit from our combined strength. And with more than 80 billion doses of medicines delivered annually by the combined company, we believe that few companies can match the impact that we can have on global health. And that is a responsibility that we take very seriously.
Our portfolio across all therapeutic areas can provide access to medicines to all 7 billion people of the world's population. In short, this new entity will be able to provide more medicines to more patients in ways that benefit all stakeholders, patients, health care professionals, payers, governments and health systems.
And finally, we believe the new champion for global health deserves a new name. And we will announce that name at closing. In China and select emerging markets, we plan to continue to use the Upjohn brand.
Let me say a few words about the strong strategic logic for this combination. Mylan has a diverse portfolio across all therapeutic areas, including generics, complex specialty brands, biosimilars and strong respiratory technology. Upjohn brings trusted iconic brands like Lipitor, Lyrica and Viagra, and strong commercial, global commercial and medical capabilities. Together, we'll have an enhanced global scale and reach that few companies can match. This allows us to participate in growth opportunities where we see them, for example, in growth markets like China and other emerging markets. But our scale also positions us well to absorb volatility in individual markets while delivering on our commitments to shareholders.
By combining Upjohn's iconic brands with Mylan's rich portfolio across all therapeutic areas, we have a diverse, a differentiated and a sustainable portfolio of product and pipeline assets. And by combining Mylan's manufacturing platform and sustainable pipeline engine with Upjohn's commercial capabilities, the new company has a powerful combination of capabilities and will have a corresponding world-class management team representing the best of the best of both companies.
The strong and sustainable cash flow of the new company enables us to deliver strong return of capital through financial discipline and best-in-class corporate governance and a new management team that will be relentlessly focused on delivering shareholder value.
Next, let me walk you through what we believe to be a very compelling financial profile, and let me start with a pro forma outlook for 2020. The combined company has a strong revenue outlook in the range of $19 billion to $20 billion, with the potential to modestly grow over time. This takes into account the U.S. Lyrica loss of exclusivity that occurred in July of this year and expected headwinds of China for 2020 from QCE and volume-based procurement regulations.
2020 pro forma EBITDA ranges from $7.5 billion to $8 billion, including phased synergies. The EBITDA-to-revenue ratio is approximately 40%, and we expect that 40% ratio to be sustainable over time and see opportunities for further improvements.
A strong and sustainable cash flow is an important characteristic of the new company, and we expect to have at least $4 billion free cash flow per year.
By 2023, we plan to deliver $1 billion in cost synergies, and we'll focus on operational rigor to get the most out of every dollar earned. And we're strongly committed to strengthening our balance sheet with a gross leverage target of less or equal to 2.5x EBITDA to be achieved by the end of 2021. We're confident to be able to pay a dividend of greater or equal to 25% of free cash flow starting from the first full quarter post-closing and to sustain this dividend or grow this dividend over time.
In summary, we're committed to a solid investment-grade profile, delivering shareholder-friendly capital returns and still have sufficient strategic flexibility run and improve our business.
Next, let me show you why we think that this is a different and new kind of company. We believe that the combined company is unique and does not have a clear peer set among other pharma companies. Traditionally, pharma companies fall into 1 of 2 groups. They're either large-cap research-based pharma companies or biotechs or spec pharma and generic. Large pharma has attractive EBITDA margins, consistently paid dividends and has low leverage. However, it must contend with patent expiry and high research risk. On the other side, spec pharma and generics have typically lower EBITDA margins, often do not pay dividends and are highly leveraged. They do not have patent risk, but they often do not have the global footprint and are therefore exposed to volatility in individual markets, especially in the U.S. Combining Mylan with Upjohn gives us a unique opportunity to create something entirely different, a pharma company with a truly unique financial profile that does not correlate to any of the pharma industry peers.
So now that I've told you what we're not, let me tell you what the combined company will be. It is a company that has a balanced geographic presence that can absorb volatility in individual markets but is also well positioned to participate in opportunities in all growth markets while at the same time able to maintain healthy and durable EBITDA margin of 40%, including phased synergies. With an attractive dividend yield and enhanced and sustainable cash flow we'll also maintain a solid investment-grade debt profile and a strong balance sheet. As you follow our performance over the next quarter and years, I'm sure you will see in our numbers how we're creating value for our shareholders that is completely different from either company's old neighborhoods of spec pharma and generics or large -- company pharma peers. It's a truly unique combination.
Next, we'd like to provide you with a few more details on each of our combination highlights. Let me start with our regionally balanced and global -- enhanced global revenue footprint. As you see, Mylan is concentrated mostly in North America and Europe. Upjohn has a high concentration in Asia Pacific. Together, this gives the combined company a unique and balanced portfolio to participate in the world's developed and in the growth markets. Roughly 55% of the combined revenue will come from North America and Europe, 45% with Asia and emerging markets. And altogether, this geographic profile will enable the combined company to absorb and mitigate volatility, but more importantly, capture opportunities in any part of the world.
Looking at our revenue mix by product type, the combination also gives us a more balanced and differentiated portfolio. I want to particularly highlight that in the new company, only about 1/3 of the revenue will come from generics, only 15% of the combined company revenue will be from the U.S. generic market. Keep in mind that the generic portfolio from legacy Mylan is strongly and rapidly shifting towards more complex and hard-to-make generics, which further solidifies this segment. And importantly, 2/3 of the new revenue coming through the pipeline will be from prescription brands, over-the-counter medicines and biosimilars. This is truly a sustainable, diverse and differentiated profile.
Now we bring it all together, look at both geographies and brands, you may notice on this chart that the Mylan portfolio is different in different geographies as indicated by a few brand examples in this chart. And now that we have a true global commercial footprint, this allows us to capitalize on a unique opportunity to cross-pollinate between countries. Subject to local registration requirements, we can bring the Mylan growth brands to any of the Upjohn growth markets wherever we see opportunity and wherever we see the patient needs.
And now I'll hand it over to Rajiv Malik, who will dive a little bit deeper on our compelling pipeline that will be the foundation of our future growth as well as provide a glimpse into the differentiating capabilities that we bring to bear. Rajiv?