Ewout Steenbergen
Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead
Thank you, Alain and good morning, everyone. Today I will discuss our financial performance for the first quarter of 2015 and key drivers. Slide 16, you can see the items that affected our first quarter results relative to the fourth quarter where [indiscernible] was impacted by lower record keeping fee income, reflecting our decision to exit the defined benefits administration business and to not renew certain plans. Annuities was affected by lower alternative income. In Investment Management, higher investment capital results offset lower seasonal performance fees. Individual Life benefitted from higher prepayment income, but encountered slightly elevated mortality relative to expectations. And Employee Benefits, the loss ratios for Group Life and Stop Loss continue to benefit from favorable claims development relative to expectations. Also Stop Loss sales were seasonally higher due to the January renewal cycle. Prepayment income was higher than expected and was lower sequentially for retirement and annuities. Looking ahead we would like to discuss administrative expenses for our ongoing business. We expect a slight decrease for the remaining quarters of the year relative to the first quarter of 2015. The decrease in seasonal expenses will be partially offset by expenses that will continue to support new business growth. We still expect to maintain our ongoing business ROE in 2015 at a level generally consistent with 2014 based on incremental investment spend of $50 million this year as we announced in February. We will provide a further update at our Investor Day in June as we explore accelerating the initial timing of our investment projects in 2015. As we incur expenses related to our $300 million to $350 million investment program, we will report this progress to you and we plan to do so in our corporate segment to simplify the presentation of our financial reporting. The ongoing business ROE excluding this investment spend will be higher relative to 2014. Then moving to Slide 17, we had positive loss in all of our retirement markets. As mentioned in tax exempt markets, we expanded our relationship with a large state government client resulting in a large transfer deposit this quarter. This does highlight a large institutional client can affect our net flows. We do anticipate two large cases not renewing in the second half of the year and that will affect our future net flows. Turning to the corporate markets, we've seen continued net inflows for 14 of the last 15 quarters. In stable value we had some positive inflows this quarter and flows can be lumpy from period to period. As always we remain disciplined with our pricing and risk tolerance across our major markets. Then Slide 18, we continued to generate positive net flows in our custodial product and had outflows of capital intensive products such as the multi-year guaranteed annuities, which is a positive from an ROC perspective. We anticipate the runoff of the multi-year guaranteed annuities to continue and the net outflows to taper off as the size of this book becomes smaller. For the fixed indexed annuities, net flows were slightly negative as the industry faced a declining interest rate environment. We're maintaining pricing discipline while proactively adjusting caps and rates on existing products. It's worth noting that this quarter's net flow have minimal impact on our overall 13 billion fixed indexed annuity book. Overall, we will continue to explore expanding our product suite to address a broader range of customer needs. Then Slide 19, Investment Management’s sourced net flows were strong this quarter at $700 million. Strong interest in our senior loan strategy and intermediate bond funds drove this result. Variable annuity outflows for the funds that are managed by Investment Management were $800 million. Then Slide 20, you can see the continued progress we've made in shifting our sales focus to index indexed universal life which aligns with our focus on less capital intensive products. The chart on the right illustrates the normal mortality fluctuations on an actual to expected basis. This quarter we had slightly elevated mortality. In normal mortality ratio, would be approximately 90%, excuse me, 90% on an actual to expected basis. Then moving to Slide 12, we've strong sales and amply benefits in the seasonally favorable first quarter, led by our stop loss products. We continue to drive profitable growth by increasing sales while maintaining our pricing and underwriting standards. Similar trends can be seen in our loss ratios for Group Life and Stop Loss, both continue to come in better than our expected range of 77% to 80%. Expected seasonally higher loss ratio for Group Life did not materialize this quarter due to favorable severity. Then Slide 22, in the Closed Block Variable Annuity segment, our hedge program performed within expectations as hedges offset the effects of market movements. The living benefit net amounted risk increased to $4.1 billion during the quarter, driven by the decline in interest rates. We've estimated available resources of $5.5 billion, which compares favorably to the living benefit net amount at risk. Our available resources exceeded this required statutory reserve by $1.3 billion and these are all hard assets and no LOCs were needed. The annualized net outflow rate was 11.6%. During the quarter, we also successfully implemented the outsourcing of the actuarial valuation, modeling and hedging functions for the Closed Block Variable Annuity segment to Milliman. This initiative which we announced last June, represents a proactive approach in creating a more variable cost structure while preserving a secure and stable control environment. By working with Milliman, we will benefit from their sophisticated hedging expertise and state of the art modeling capabilities. Note that we will retain full responsibility for assumptions and methodologies as well as the setting of hedge objectives and execution of hedge possessions. Slide 23, this slide updates the impact of various market sensitivity scenarios on CBVA's 50-year cash flows on a present value basis. The net present value of cash flows consists of two components. First, the available resources backing the block and second, the resources needed. The latter includes, the present value of fees, claims and the cash flow impact of our hedges. Relative to a year ago, the net present values have generally declined due to a downward shift in interest rates, particularly at the long end of the curve. Results do remain positive, except under scenario one, which is an extreme stress scenario. As you know our philosophy is to be one of the most transparent companies in the industry. In that spirit, we think Slide 24 will help to put the $450 million cash flow scenarios in perspective. The graph illustrates the distribution of net present values of cash flows using 1,000. So cash tax scenarios and discounted at swap rates, the X-axis represents the net present values of the cash flows the Y-axis represents the distribution of results. We overlaid the four deterministic scenarios on this graph to provide some perspective about where those scenarios would fall on the distribution. Please note that the distribution of results does not represent the probability of outcomes. As soon on the far left of the graph, scenario one is an out layer as it aligns with a very small distribution of results under these scenarios. The other three scenarios are closer to the center of the distribution. Then Slide 25, our estimated combined risk based capital ratio improved in the first quarter to 547%. On the right side of the slide, the debt-to-capital ratio at the end of the first quarter increased slightly from the fourth quarter to 21.9% and remained better that our target of 25%. The increase was largely due to 631 million of share repurchases during the period. The room below our 25% targeted ratio provides us with additional strategic flexibility. In Slide 26, our holding company liquidity stood at $462 million at the end of the first quarter and this figure reflects share repurchases in the quarter and remains above our 24 months liquidity targets of $450 million. Our estimated statutory surplus in excess of our target RBC ratio of 425% at the end of the first quarter was $1.7 billion and that’s before adjusting for intercompany borrowings. The middle chart shows our current excess capital position at quarter end and that is net of intercompany borrowings. To affect the share repurchase, the holding company borrowed a net $499 million from intercompany credit lines on a temporary basis. The $1.2 billion of estimated statutory surplus in net of this intercompany debt. The outstanding intercompany borrowings owed by the holding company will be repaid using ordinary dividends from the operating entities and we expect this to occur later in May. After the repayment of holding company, intercompany credit lines, the excess of ordinary dividends from the operating entities will increase the holding company liquidity. This will not affect the overall access capital amount in the middle chart. Adding to potential liquidity is $500 million of pre-capitalized trust securities issued during the first quarter. We issue these securities to provide a source of continued capital and we believe this transaction represents a prudent and cost effective way to enhance our balance sheet strength. The chart on the right shows the $631 million we spend on share repurchases in the first quarter and the remaining balance on our share repurchase authorization. So in summary, we delivered strong financial results for the first quarter of the year. We continued to expand our high return businesses. We solidified our balance sheet. We returned capital to shareholders and we took proactive steps to manage our Closed Block Variable Annuity segment. And with that, I will turn the call back to the operator Emily, so we can take your questions.