Ewout Steenbergen
Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead
Thank you, Alain, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will highlight some of our key financial metrics for the fourth quarter of 2014. Moving to Slide 18, you can see the items that affected our fourth quarter results relative to the third quarter. In addition, we will discuss business specific drivers. Higher prepayment income partially offset by lower alternative income affected several segments. Retirements benefitted from increased fee income and annuities had favorable mortality. In Investment Management, we have higher performance fees, which helped to offset higher operating expenses. In addition, we recorded lower investment capital results, due to changes in value on certain private equity investments. In Individual Life, there was favorable mortality driven by lower severity. In Employee Benefits, the loss ratio for Stop Loss continued to benefit from favorable claims development. We also had several below the line times. We recorded $1.85 billion release of the tax valuation allowance on our deferred tax asset for the full year 2014. And I will address this in more detail shortly. We also recorded a pre-tax $373 million loss in the fourth quarter related to our pension plans due to lower rates and the impact of updated mortality tables. We will use a fair value methodology to account for our pension plan. This approach recognizes non-operating gains and losses in the current period rather than amortizing over a multi-year timeframe. And in Individual Life the pre-tax impact related to the closing of the RGA reinsurance transaction was $71 million in the fourth quarter. We had already recorded $18 million in the third quarter due to accounting rules. Looking ahead, there are some factors worth nothing that we expect to affect our overall business and our individual segments. All of our segments are impacted by seasonal items in the first quarter including higher payroll taxes, and other annual expenses of approximately $18 million of which approximately half is in Retirement. In addition, alternative investment income is usually lower. We have also adjusted our operating tax rate, beginning in the first quarter of 2015 to a 32% effective tax rate, which I will discuss later. As noted, last quarter we anticipate 2015 record-keeping fees in Retirement to have a quarterly run rate of approximately $45 million reflecting our decision to exit the defined benefit administration business, and non-renewal of certain plans. In Investment Management, performance fees and investment capital results tend to be the lowest in the first quarter, reflecting the absence of typical year-end fees. Performance fees and certain front-loaded fees associated with the launch of a new private equity fund in 2014 combined were $33 million and exceed 2015 expectations by approximately $20 million. In Employee Benefits, the loss ratio for Group Life tends to be the highest in the first quarter and we expect the full year 2015 loss ratios for Group Life and Stop Loss to be in the range of 77% to 80%. Overall, for the ongoing business ROE in 2015, a continued execution of our specific business initiatives and the benefit of the individual life reinsurance transaction, should help to offset the expected normalization of performance fees in Investment Management and loss ratios in Employee Benefits. Thus we expect to maintain our ROE in 2015 at a level generally consistent with 2014 results, prior to factoring in the benefit of the lower operating earnings tax rate and potential incremental investment spend. The net effect of all these items would be neutral to our 2015 ROE, assuming an incremental investment spend of $50 million in 2015. And then in our Closed Block Institutional Spread products, we anticipate 2015 operating earnings to be in the range of $5 million to $10 million and that is reflecting the continued runoff of the block. Moving to Slide 19, we have seen continued strong net inflows in corporate markets for the last five quarters. In tax exempt markets, we had several wins that developed during the quarter to help partially offset the non-renewal of a large case that did not meet our targeted returns. In stable value, we remained disciplined with our pricing and risk tolerance. Then Slide 20, we generated positive net flows in our fixed indexed annuities and mutual fund custodial products. For the fixed indexed annuities, net flows were minimal as we continued to proactively adjust our products given declining interest rates. The new products we launched in the fourth quarter of 2014 and in January of this year enable us to cater to a wider range of customer needs through a broader range of cap rates. We expect our net flows to benefit from these products in 2015. As we previously noted, we had a large block of multi-year guaranteed annuities runoff in the third quarter. Approximately $275 million of the runoff of this block carried over into this quarter, largely in October. This runoff was a positive event from an ROC perspective as this block had a low return. Then slide 21, Investment Management’s sourced net flows were strong this quarter at $800 million, driven by retail sales of our intermediate bond fund that received a number one ranking by Lipper in 2014, institutional sales including senior loans and a CLO issuance. Furthermore, Investment Management successfully generated another $800 million of sub-advisor replacements. For the full year we have had $7.6 billion of these flows, made possible by the strong investment performance of our equity and fixed income platforms. Separately in the fourth quarter there were legacy assets that were divested or returned during the period, much of which had low fees. Variable annuity outflows for the funds that are managed by Investment Management were $1.2 billion, a sequential increase from the third quarter reflecting $350 million of additional outflows due to the enhanced annuitization offer in CBVA. Investment Management however retained the outflows related to this offer, as these assets went into the general account. CBVA net outflows represent a headwind for the Investment Management business but are a positive for the larger enterprise. In Slide 22, you can see the strong progress we have made in shifting our sales focus to indexed universal life which aligns with our focus on less capital intensive products. Indexed sales now represent 52% of our sales in 2014, compared with 28% in 2013. The chart on the right illustrates the normal mortality fluctuations on an actual to expected basis. As you can see we expect a one standard deviation to be approximately plus or minus 9%. While we have seen some movement over the past eight quarters, all but one quarter was within our expected range. The fourth quarter 2014 had favorable mortality driven by lower severity, a normalized mortality ratio would be approximately 90% on an actual to expected basis. Then Slide 23, our loss ratios for Group Life and Stop Loss continued to come in better than our expected range of 77% to 80%. We had been encouraged by our efforts to drive our sales across Group Life, Stop Loss and Voluntary, while maintaining our discipline in underwriting and pricing, which is leading to profitable growth. Slide 24, in the Closed Block Variable Annuity, our hedge program performs within expectations as our hedges offset the effects of market movements. The living benefit net amounted risk increased to $3.7 billion during the quarter, driven by the decline in interest rates, which offset positive fund performance and the benefit from the enhanced annuitization offer. We have estimated available resources of $5.0 billion, which compares favorably to the living benefits net amount at risk. The annualized net outflow rate including the one-time impact of the enhanced annuitization offer was 16.6%. Excluding the annualized effect of the offer, the net outflow rate would have been approximately 12%, and that is an improvement from the prior quarter’s rate. As Rod mentioned, we are very pleased with the success of the offer and we expect to launch the next offer in the first-half of this year. In Slide 25, this slide helps to illustrate how the Closed Block Variable Annuity segment has runoff, as it might not be apparent looking at a total account value. The number of policies declined by 17%, roughly 80,000 policies since December of 2012, and this compares with an account value decline of 3% to $41 billion. In Slide 26, our tech’s assets represent another source of value for the company. As I mentioned earlier, we recorded $1.85 billion release of our tax valuation allowance for the full-year 2014. We continue to have strong results and have taken other actions to strengthen our financial performance. Therefore, we concluded that a substantial portion of the deferred tax assets will likely be realized so we released the corresponding portion of our tax valuation allowance. Approximately $800 million of our valuation allowance remains on federal NOLs. We also adjusted our effective tax rate on operating earnings to 32% for 2015. This reflects the benefits of the dividend received deduction in our ongoing business. And we have updated our estimates of the net present value of the projected cash tax savings from our deferred tax assets to approximately $1.6 billion. The slight increase was driven by higher deferred tax assets on Life deferred losses which can fluctuate based on Closed Block Variable Annuity hedge gains or losses. And this was partially offset by the assumption that the DRD stays in place. Please note that we have revised our assumption on the DRD in our net present value calculation from earlier presentations. We have also presented a net present value of the estimated DRD received for the Closed Block Variable Annuity over several time periods to illustrate the value of this benefit. Then Slide 27, our estimated combined risk based capital ratio further improved in the fourth quarter to 536%. On the right side of the slide, the debt to capital ratio at the end of the fourth quarter declined from the third quarter to 21.3%, well below our target of 25%. This decrease was largely due to net income in the fourth quarter even with the share repurchase activity during the period. And then Slide 28, our holding company liquidity stood at $682 million at the end of 2014 and that’s after the share repurchase activity in the quarter, and remains above our 24 month liquidity target of $450 million. Moving to the middle chart, this shows the composition of our corporate GAAP capital as of the end of 2014 of $2.9 billion and that’s excluding deferred tax assets of $2.3 billion. The largest component of the corporate GAAP capital is $1.5 billion, which represents our estimated statutory surplus in excess of our target RBC ratio of 425% as of the end of the fourth quarter. The chart on the right shows $789 million we used for share repurchases in 2014 and the new $750 million share repurchase authorization and this is additive to the $11 million remaining balance on the prior authorization. In summary, we delivered strong financial results for the quarter. And for the year we achieved our 2016 ROE goal ahead of schedule. We took actions to grow our high return businesses and free capital from lower return loss. We improved the strength of our balance sheet, generated significant free cash flows, returned capital to shareholders, and we took proactive steps to manage our Close Block Variable Annuity segment. And with that I will turn the call back over to the operator Emily so we can take your questions.