Miguel Galuccio
Analyst · Tasso Vasconcellos with UBS
Thanks, Ale. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to this earnings call. The third quarter of 2024 was marked by strong operational and financial performance, driven by new well activity in our development hub in Vaca Muerta. Total production was 72,800 BOEs per day, an increase of 47% year-over-year and 12% quarter-over-quarter. Oil production was 63,500 barrels per day, 53% above the same quarter of last year and 11% up compared to the previous quarter. Total revenues during the quarter were $462 million, a 53% increase compared to the same quarter of last year. Lifting cost was $4.7 per BOE, 2% down year-over-year. Capital expenditure was $369 million, mainly driven by 12 new wells drilled and 15 wells completed during the quarter plus $63 million in development facilities. Adjusted EBITDA was $310 million, 37% above year-over-year, driven by robust revenue growth and lower lifting cost per BOE. Adjusted net income was $53 million, implying a quarterly adjusted EPS of $0.60 per share. Free-cash flow was $74 million, negative during the quarter, driven by higher cash in investing activities, as we ramp-up capital expenditure in our development to drive growth. Net leverage ratio at quarter end was a solid 0.65 times adjusted EBITDA. I will now deep dive into our main operational and financial metrics of the quarter. Total production during the quarter was 72,800 BOEs per day, our highest quarter ever. On a sequential basis, production growth was 12%, driven by the connection of 23 new wells between May and September. We continue to see solid productivity with new wells performing in line with our type curve. Total production was 47% higher on an interannual basis, reflecting the ramp-up of our new well activity. We tied in 51 new wells during the last 12 months compared to the 31 during 2023. Oil production was 63,500 barrels per day, implying an interannual growth of 53% and a sequential growth of 11%. Natural gas production increased 16% year-over-year and 12% quarter-over-quarter. Growth was driven by associated guide stream coming from our Vaca Muerta shale oil wells. During the third quarter of 2024, we continued to make solid progress in the execution of our annual growth program. We connected three parts during Q3, two in Bajada del Palo Oeste and one in Bajada del Palo Este for the total of 12 new wells. We completed an additional part in Bajada del Palo Oeste in late September, which led to the tie-in of three wells earlier this month. We therefore connected 40 new wells year-to-date, leaving us on track to deliver on our activity guidance, which is between 50 new wells and 54 new wells for the year. Based on the execution of our new well activity plan, our model shows that production is forecast to expand again by double digit in Q4, to 85,000 BOEs per day. We also reiterated our guidance of 68,000 BOEs to 70,000 BOEs per day on average for the full year, noting that we will likely be on the upper end of this range. In Q3, 2024 total revenues were boosted to $462 million, a 53% increase year-over-year and 17% above the previous quarter, driven by strong production growth. Realized oil prices were $68.4 per barrel on average, up 1% on an interannual basis and on a sequential basis, oil prices were 5% lower, driven by softer international prices. Domestic realization prices were $67.8 per barrel, net of tracking costs and including volumes sold at export parity. Export realization prices were $68.9 per barrel. During Q3, we continued to execute our export-oriented strategy, with an increase in amount of oil sold in international markets driven by the production growth. We exported 3.5 million barrels of oil during the quarter, 57% above the previous year. Additionally, 1 million barrels of oil were sold in the domestic market at export parity prices. Therefore, combining the sales to international buyers and domestic buyers paying export parity, 72% of our total oil sales were sold at export parity prices. Lifting cost was $31.6 million during the quarter, implying a lifting cost per BOE of $4.7. On a unit cost basis, our lifting costs were down 2% interannually, reflecting dilution of fixed costs as we continue to ramp up production. This effect was partially offset by the inflation in U.S. dollars. In a sequential basis, lifting cost per BOE increased 5%. This was driven by higher costs in gathering, processing, gas compression, and power generation to accommodate current production and future growth. Based on our annual growth program, our model shows we are on track to deliver on our guidance of $4.5 per barrel for the year. Adjusted EBITDA during the quarter was $310 million, a solid increase of 37% year-over-year, mainly driven by a strong production growth, amid stable oil prices and lifting cost per BOE. On a sequential basis, adjusted EBITDA increased by 8%. Noteworthy is the fact that on LTM basis, adjusted EBITDA has surpassed $1.1 billion. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 65% during the quarter. The softer interannual price reflects a temporary increase in trucking expenses. During Q3, we trucked 12,000 barrels of oil per day for a total cost of $23 million, of which $16 million were allocated to selling expenses in our income statement and $7 million were deducted from our revenue line. During the third quarter, we continued with CapEx acceleration to support production ramp-up. Operating activities cash flow was $255 million, reflecting an increase in working capital of $52 million, and advanced payments for the midstream expansions of $20 million. Cash flow used in investing activities was $329 million, reflecting accrued CapEx of $369 million, partially offset by a $42 million decrease in CapEx-related working capital. Cash flow from financing activities reflect proceeds from borrowing of $143 million, the repurchase of share for $50 million, and the repayment of borrowings for $74 million. A result, free cash flow during the quarter was $74 million negative and cash at period end was $256 million. Net leverage ratio stood at a very healthy 0.65 times adjusted EBITDA at quarter end. During 2024, we have achieved three very significant milestones to deliver on our profitable growth plan. Firstly, we have accelerated growth in 2024, ramping up new well activities and leading to a forecast of 85,000 BOEs per day on average in Q4. This will imply more than a 50% increase year-over-year in that quarter. Additionally, we secured oil midstream capacity of 124,000 barrels of oil per day by year end in 2025. And finally, we secured a third drilling rig and a second frac set under term contracts, which give us capacity to grow further during 2025. Based on these milestones, we are updating our 2025 guidance. We forecast total production between 95,000 and 100,000 barrels of oil per day, implying an interannual production growth of more than 40%. This plan is based on 52 new wells to 60 new wells during the year, and $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion of CapEx. This excludes potential investments in Vaca Muerta Sur oil pipeline and export terminal. We forecast and adjusted EBITDA of between $1.50 billion and $1.65 billion. Also implying an interannual growth of more than 40%. Our realized oil price assumption is between $67 and $72 per barrel, implying Brent of $75 to $80 per barrel. This plan is in line with capital allocation priorities disclosed in our last Investor Day. Based on the depth of our short-cycle, high-return well inventory, we are accelerating our profitable growth plan. We continue to assess the impact that this updated guidance will have on our 2026 forecast. As a result, we are withdrawing our 2026 guidance, and we are working on a new long-term plan to be presented to our investors during 2025. I will now summarize the key takeaways of today's presentation. During Q3 2024, we recorded strong operational and financial performance. We continued to deliver growth with industry-leading return on capital. Growth was driven by the sharp execution of our annual work program. We have connected 12 wells in the quarter and 40 wells year-to-date. Alongside with solid well productivity this has boosted production, revenues, and net profit. Based on solid progress during the quarter, I can confirm we are well on track to deliver on our 2024 guidance for activity, production, lifting costs and adjusted EBITDA. During Q3, we have also made focus on return to shareholders. We executed the second tranche of our share buyback plan for $50 million. This adds up to $100 million of buyback during the year. Finally, based on our CapEx acceleration during the year and having secured additional capacity in drilling completion and oil export infrastructure to continue our growth, we have updated our 2025 guidance. Our plan is forecast to yield more than 40% growth in production and adjusted EBITDA compared to 2024. Before we move to Q&A, I would like to thank our shareholders for their continued support and congratulate the entire Vista team for their outstanding performance. Operator, please open the line for Q&A.