Lorenzo Donadeo
Analyst · TD Securities. Your line is open
Thank you, Connor. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us today. I am Lorenzo Donadeo, CEO of Vermilion. Joining me today are Tony Marino, President and COO; Curtis Hicks, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Dean Morrison, our Director of Investor Relations. Please refer to the advisory regarding forward-looking statements contained in today's news release. These advisories describe the forward-looking information, non-GAAP measures, and oil and gas terms referred to today and outline the risk factors and assumptions relevant to this discussion. This morning, we announced a record annual production of 54,922 BOE per day for 2015, an increase of 11% compared to 2014. Strong operational execution allowed us to achieve this record production, despite a nearly 4,000 BOE per day shortfall and anticipated Corrib volumes associated with regulatory delays, and a 30% decrease in exploration and development capital spending as compared to the prior-year. Annual fund flows from operations was $516.2 million or $4.71 per basic share in 2015, as compared to $804.9 million or $7.63 per basic share in 2014. Higher production during the year, partially offset the impact of a nearly 50% drop in oil prices. Fourth quarter fund flows from operations was $1.22 per basic share, beating analysts’ consensus of $1.11 per share by 10%. This month - this morning, we also released the details of our reserves and resource evaluations for 2015. As reported both proved and proved plus probable or 2P reserves by 6% in 2015 to 161 million BOE and 261 million BOE, respectively. At the 2P level, we successfully replaced 170% of 2015 production adding 34 million BOE of 2P reserves. 30.5 million BOE or 90% of this growth came from exploration and development activities, with the remaining 3.5 million BOE coming from acquisitions. Our 2P finding and development costs including future development costs or FDC, decreased by 48% to $8.98 per BOE, while 2P finding, development and acquisition costs, including FDC, decreased 55% to $10.03 per BOE. Despite lower netbacks in 2015, the significant decrease in finding and development costs generated an operating recycle ratio of 3.6x for 2015 versus 3.2x in 2014. Our fully burdened after-tax cash based recycle ratio also remains strong at 2.9x. This demonstrates our ability to not only maintain, but improve our high level of investment efficiency in 2015, despite the decline in commodity prices. Our 2015 reserves report was supplemented with an evaluation by GLJ of our contingent resources in the Development Pending category. The low best and high estimates of our contingent resources in the Development Pending category are 95.1 million BOE, 160.7 million BOE and 254.7 million BOE, respectively. Approximately 80% of our best estimate contingent resources reside in the Development Pending category, reflecting the high-quality nature of our contingent resource base. While we have been faced with depressed commodity prices and significant volatility, the three key tenets of our long-term strategy remain intact. These guiding principles have allowed Vermilion to weather the many highs and lows experienced during several challenging business cycles over the past two decades. They underpin the sustainability of our business model, our strong position in the industry and our track record of outperformance. The three key priorities encapsulated within our long-term strategy in order of importance are: first and foremost, the ongoing preservation of our balance sheet strength; second, to the deliver a reliable income stream to investors; and third, to invest in our business to fund production growth. We've always maintained a disciplined balance sheet, yet it is during challenging market conditions such as today when the value of prioritizing the strong balance sheet becomes truly evident. During the year, we expanded our credit facility by $500 million to $2 billion, and extended the term to May 2019. As of year-end 2015, we had approximately $840 million of available credit on our bank line, which allowed us to retire the $225 million of secured - senior unsecured notes, which came due earlier this month. In a further step to preserve our balance sheet, we amended our existing dividend reinvestment plan to include a premium dividend component in early 2015. The premium dividend, which we view as a short-term measure, in response to the commodity environment, offers considerable flexibility and expands our access to the lowest cost form of equity capital available. We are able to suspend or prorate the program at our discretion at any time. Our intention is to reduce and ultimately eliminate the premium dividend component when commodity prices recover. Hedging is one of the means we use to increase the stability of our revenues and fund flows from operations. Decreasing volatility, assist in the planning of capital programs and helps to ensure strong project economics. Through a portfolio of callers and swaps, we typically hedge 12 to 18 months forward, but we currently have European gas contracts hedged up to 36 months forward. In total, we have 25% of our 2016 net of royalty production hedged, including 44% of our anticipated natural gas volumes. Cost reduction is another means we use to help preserve balance sheet strength and increase fund flows. Through our profitability enhancement plan or PEP initiative, we have realized nearly $90 million of cost savings associated with capital spending, operating expense and G&A savings for the full-year of 2015. Vermillion is unique among our peers and that we have never reduced the dividend since it was initiated in 2003. The commodity downturn has been longer and more pronounced that we anticipated when it began in mid-2014, and as a result, many companies have discontinued their dividends. At Vermilion, we believe the dividends and income model remains a well suited to our asset base and that our existing dividend remains manageable with the actions we've taken to-date. We remain committed to, first, prioritizing our balance sheet and preserving our financial flexibility, and to do so, we constantly monitor our dividend and accompanying capital program taking into account prevailing and expected commodity prices. Our objective is that funds from operations under the commodity strip will approximately balance or exceed our cash flows for net dividends and capital expenditures. Should commodity conditions arise, under which, we can no longer expect to balance outflows and inflows over longer period of times, we would protect our balance sheet through further modifications of our capital investments, and if required, dividend programs. In November, we announced preliminary 2016 capital expenditure guidance of $350 million. In January, we adjusted our 2016 capital expenditure guidance to $285 million and modest readjusted corresponding production guidance to 62,500 to 63,500 BOE per day. This morning, we announced a further revision to our 2016 capital expenditure guidance to $235 million, as a result of continued commodity price deterioration. The $50 million reduction primarily reflects lower expected non-operated drilling activity in Canada, fewer workovers in France and a deferral of our Netherlands drilling and pipeline twinning programs. We have maintained the flexibility in our program to restore certain projects, should commodity prices improve. Despite the significant reduction in planned capital expenditures, our 2015 production guidance of 62,500 to 63,500 BOE per day remains intact and represents growth of more than 10% year-over-year with the modest impact expected in 2016 from the most recent reduction in capital. Our Canadian operational plans for 2016, much like 2015, reflects reduced activity levels as we seek to preserve our financial flexibility and balance sheet strength. Canadian activities in 2016, will be limited to expiry wells to maintain the net asset value of our land base and capital commitments on non-operated wells. In 2016, we expect to drill or participate in six gross or four net Mannville wells and six gross 5.5 net Midale oil wells. Following on our entry into the Powder River basin in the United States in 2014, we increased our interest in that Turner Sand play to 100% through the acquisition in 2015 of our partner’s 30% working interest. Now with full control across a significant block of land, we see the Turner Sand play as an opportunity offering strong promise, where we can leverage our horizontal development expertise when prices improve. We plan to drill one expiry-driven well in 2016 and complete two others in the Powder River basin. Moving over to Europe. In 2015, we conducted our third annual drilling campaign in the Champotran field, achieving 100% success across the 13 wells drilled to-date. Incorporating the impact of our improving waterflood program, our 2015 development program delivered incremental exit production of approximately 1,000 BOE per day. Our 2016 planned activity in France will be centered around highly economic workovers and optimization projects. In the Netherlands, we drilled two gross or 1.9 net wells and tied in one gross or 0.45 net wells in 2015. These three successful wells added meaningful production leading to record volumes in the Netherlands for both the fourth quarter and full-year 2015. With the latest reduction in 2016 capital, the drilling program and line twinning project in the Netherlands are deferred, but we continue with the optimization of existing assets. In July 2015, we entered into a farm-in agreement that provides us with participating interest in 19 onshore exploration, spanning approximately 850,000 acres in north-west Germany as well as associated proprietary data. During the exploration phase, Vermilion will assume operatorship for 11 of the 19 wells. In 2016, activity will be focused on permitting and pre-drill activities for the Burgmoor Z5 well and two exploration projects. In addition, we will continue our ongoing analysis of the geologic and geophysical data acquired with the farm-in assets. More recently, we were awarded two additional exploration licenses in Germany, adding approximately 110,000 net acres to our land position. Following the receipt of final regulatory approval, the Corrib project in Ireland began first gas production on December 30, 2015. Initially, one well was placed on production, with the second well brought online early in January 2016. To-date, Corrib has been producing in line with expectations and well deliverability has been better than anticipated and there has been no significant downtime events. Current production levels are approximately 33 million cubic feet per day or 5,500 BOEs per day net to Vermilion. We anticipate production levels for Corrib to rise over a period of approximately six months to peak production estimated at 58 million cubic feet per day or approximately 9,700 BOE per day, net to our interest. Corrib is expected to be a significant driver of our production growth in 2016 and anticipated to meaningfully contribute to free cash flow. In Australia, we drilled and placed on production horizontal sidetrack well in the fourth quarter. The well has exhibited strong performance over the six weeks of 2015, producing approximately 3,900 barrels per day. Offshore drilling in Australia requires a great deal of advance contracting and logistical planning, which means that full cycle costs are minimized by proceeding with our previously planned two well sidetrack program in 2016, despite current oil price weakness. Furthermore, we expect more services cost to be near their lows in 2016 at the time of drilling, making this a desirable time to drill these high-quality sidetrack locations. Strong governance is paramount to Vermilion’s success and takes on even greater importance during times of uncertainty. Recognition of our commitment to the highest standards of corporate governance, leading financial practices, and open investor communication is demonstrated to our recent receipt of TopGun status for Board, CEO and CFO level achievement from the Brendan Wood’s International Shareholder Confidence panel. The voting panel comprised of over 500 investors and sell-side professionals considered a short list of 323 potential nominees in Canada, of whom, less than 10% were rewarded the TopGun status. In 2015, we were also ranked second within the energy sector and 20th among 234 companies in the Globe & Mail Board Games report on governance. We have also been recognized for our sustainability efforts in 2015. We were named to the CDP Climate Disclosure Leadership Index, recognizing that depth and quality of our climate-related disclosure as compared to the 200 largest companies listed on the TSX. To be named to the Leadership Index, a company must have a disclosure score within the top 10% of surveyed companies. In addition, we were the top ranking oil and gas company on the Corporate Knights Future 40 Responsible Corporate Leaders in Canada List, as well as being named the Top International Producer of the year by Explorers and Producers Association of Canada. These accolades reflect our continued focus on achieving robust performance for all of our stakeholders. Despite the headwinds caused by the current business environment, we believe that Vermilion has a necessary - has taken the necessary actions to address market conditions. With our diversified portfolio and operational excellence, we believe that we can continue to deliver long-term value by focusing on our key priorities, protecting the balance sheet, providing a reliable income stream to investors and growing production in the long-term. Our interests are well aligned with investors, with management and directors holding approximately 6% of Vermilion’s outstanding shares. As was announced in November, I will be retiring as CEO effective tomorrow, at which time, I will become Chair of the Board of Directors. Since co-founding the company 22 years ago, we've achieved a great success and it's been an exciting and personally rewarding experience. And I'd like to thank our staff, our executive team, our Board of Directors and our shareholders for their contributions and support over the years. With my retirement, there are a number of other organizational changes, Larry Macdonald, the current Chair of the Board of Directors, will transition to the newly created role of Lead Director. Tony Marino currently President and COO will assume the role of President and CEO. Mike Kaluza, currently the VP of our Canadian business unit, will take over as Executive Vice president and COO. Vermilion is well positioned with the diversified high-quality asset base, a deep drilling inventory, a talented workforce and a strong corporate culture. I look forward to working even more closely with the Board of Directors in my new role, and with Tony Marino and the entire executive team at Vermilion, as we look to take our company to new and exciting heights. With that, I will conclude my formal remarks. And operator, please open the floor to questions.