Kevin C. Robert
Analyst · Simmons
Thanks, Dan. This morning, I will discuss our outlook for floater and jackup activity, highlight some of our contract signings and discuss regional jackup and floater activity. During the third quarter, we completed our annual review of our business with emphasis on expected supply and demand activity over the next several years. Our study indicates that the floater and jackup markets will continue to experience solid demand growth beyond the end of this decade. All of the economic indicators that affect our business are expected to be positive as demand for energy and attractive commodity prices should continue to support investment by our clients, in oil and gas exploration and development. Our study method forecasts drilling activity by water depth and equipment requirements in every offshore region and calculates rigs supply and demand with sensitivities for commodity prices, rig attrition and rig additions. I want to briefly summarize our observations to remind everyone that these are forecasts and subject to various assumptions. In the floater markets, we expect the demand growth that started at late 2010 to continue strongly for the next couple of years. Drawing demand in water depths of less than 5,000 feet will have a significant amount of activity but the strongest demand growth should be for ultra-deepwater floaters as a result of rig preference. Regionally, we expect Brazil to continue to represent about 1/3 of floater demand as the development of pre-salt Brazil continues to be a significant growth area. Sub-Saharan Africa, the Gulf of Mexico and the Asia-Pacific region will also contribute to this growth. We expect demand in the jackup markets to remain very strong over the next several years. Our forecasts indicate a lot of demand for drilling in mature traditional areas like the Gulf of Mexico, Mexico and the North sea. Middle East is expected to grow drilling activity over the next several years along with the Asia Pacific region. The biggest sensitivity in the jackup market is rig attrition with more than 50% of the marketed jackup approaching the end of its economic life, jackup supply could vary greatly depending on the pace of retirements. In summary, while we see a meaningful increase in the number of floaters and jackups in the next couple of years, we believe that demand outlook which remained strong coupled with attrition of older rigs will result in a relatively balanced global market. Now turning to current market conditions. We continue to see lots of activity. During the third quarter, we handled approximately 60 new opportunities for our rigs from combined tender and inquiry activity. A little more than half of this opportunities are for jackups, and the remaining opportunities are for our floaters. The floater prospects were split evenly between work and water depths greater and less than 5,000 feet. Other than the record activity level of the second quarter of this year, this level is consistent with what we have seen every quarter since the beginning of last year. In the West Africa floater market, they remain a number of open tenders in Angola, Nigeria and the Ivory Coast that we believe will absorb 6 to 8 ultra-deepwater rigs. We have bid our ultra-deepwater drillships and semisubmersibles, and we expect to have a growing presence in this region. These tender processes take a very long time due to the regulatory approval processes. So all of the work is starting in 2015. The West Africa jackup market has rebounded nicely over the last 12 months with some recent contracts. Currently, there are open requirements for 5 to 7 rigs, all for multi-year terms. In the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, we continue to work on putting backlog behind our 8500 Series rigs coming up for renewals. ENSCO 8500 has priced options at attractive day rates for the incumbent customer, and we expect that these options will be exercised. We have recently secured letters of award for programs for ENSCO 8503 and ENSCO 8502, that will extend each rig's contracted backlog. We're in advanced discussions with customers for programs that would keep these rigs working into the first quarter of 2015. We have also proposed our 8500 Series rigs on opportunities in other regions, including West Africa, Brazil, Latin America and the Mediterranean. Since these rigs can work virtually in any offshore basin around the world. Based on our current outlook, we expect that all of our 8500 Series rigs coming up for renewal in the next year will be contracted without any material gaps. We have also offered ENSCO DS-9 and DS-10 on prospects in the Gulf of Mexico with multi-year terms as these 2 new builds are now in the visible supply. Jackup demand in the U.S. Gulf continues to outstrip supply and activity for our rigs is brisk, resulting in longer contract terms. We contracted ENSCO 82, ENSCO 68 and ENSCO 81 for one-year terms in the mid $140,000 per day range. ENSCO 99 obtained a 9-month contract in the mid-120s, and we have made proposals on a number of our other jackups with terms as long as 18 months. As we look forward, we expect the U.S. Gulf jackup market to remain strong given the limited rig supply and compelling drilling economics. In Mexico, Pemex picked up 14 more jackups through direct negotiation and now has 45 rigs under contract. We expect Pemex to continue aggressively growing their fleet as we believe they plan to add up to 10 incremental jackups. Turning to Brazil. Petrobras continues to evaluate bids for work over units needed to help stimulate production in the Campos and Santos basins. We expect Petrobras to conclude this process before the end of the year. Petrobras also continues its efforts to develop pre-salt as they are working to renew rigs with contracts expiring in 2015 to ensure their resources are efficiently applied toward the high priority pre-salt developments. They entered the market with a formal tender for 1 or more rigs that we believe is both a market check against the current extension negotiations, as well as recognition that they need more rigs to fill gaps in their forward drilling schedule. We plan to bid one of our drillships and possibly a DP semi. The bids are due by the end of this month. ENSCO 5000 demobilized to South Africa and ENSCO 5004 will leave for its contract in the Mediterranean following its current contract. We have bid ENSCO 5002 on opportunities in Brazil and the Mediterranean. Moving to the North Sea, the U.K., Danish and Dutch sectors of the jackup market remained tight with demand exceeding supply. During the quarter we added backlog to ENSCO 92 and ENSCO 101 with the incumbent customers. We are in advanced discussions for a 2-year contract on ENSCO 122 and we are pursuing a number of long-term opportunities for follow-on contracts for ENSCO 120 and 121. We anticipate a continued tight market in the Northwest Europe jackup sector well into 2015. Supply and demand remain in balance in the U.K. floater market and we expect there will be opportunities for incremental harsh environment floaters in the region over the next few years. In the Mediterranean, tender and inquiry activity has been good as we have had 4 or 5 opportunities materialize for moored semis. In the Middle East as Dan mentioned, we executed long-term contracts for ENSCO 54 with Saudi Aramco and ENSCO 53 with NDC. We expect Saudi Aramco to be active in 2014 as we believe they will renew all 29 of their jackups rolling over. We see demand for up to 8 incremental rigs from other operators in the region for standard and high-spec rigs for multi-year terms. The Asia Pacific jackup market remains in balance. We added backlog during the quarter on ENSCO 105, ENSCO 106 and ENSCO 107. With ENSCO 105 and 107 receiving 1-year terms. We expect the region to continue to be balanced to the end of 2014, even when considering deliveries of new builds. The floater market in Asia-Pacific continues to present new opportunities as Chevron will tender for an ultra-deepwater drillship to be delivered by the end of 2014, and we continue to see opportunities for ENSCO 5005 in Myanmar, Indonesia and China. Regarding the worldwide order book for floating rigs, we count 32 competitive new rigs to be delivered before the end of 2014, of which about 13 are uncontracted. Of the 13 that are uncontracted, we believe about 10 are in discussions with operators and could be committed. Based on our estimates of the number of active and expected tenders, we believe all of the new build floaters will be absorbed into the market as they are delivered. On the newbuild jackup side, we count 47 new rigs to be delivered before the end of 2014, of which approximately 34 are available. Based on our estimates of the number of active and expected tenders, we believe all of the newbuild jackups will be absorbed into the market. Now let me to turn the call over to Jay.