John Geller
Analyst · MKM Partners. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Steve and good morning everyone. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $52 million, $2 million below the third quarter of 2014. While these results are not adjusted for the impact of revenue reportability it is important to highlight that reportability negatively impacted our adjusted EBITDA, by nearly $7 million in the third quarter. All of which we expect to turnaround in the fourth quarter. Adjusting both the years for the impact of revenue reportability, adjusted EBITDA would have been nearly $59 million in the third quarter of 2015, a $2 million or 3% increase from $57 million in the third quarter of 2014. For the quarter, company adjusted development margin was 21.2% and North America adjusted development margin was 23.1%. Rental margin outperformed the prior year by $2.5 million. And our resort management and other services business improved over $3 million, as compared to last year. Turning to our North America segment contract sales, excluding residential sales, totaled $143 million, down $5 million from the third quarter of last year. As Steve discussed, a strong U.S. dollar unfavorably impacted sales primarily in our Latin American sales channels, as well as sales to Japanese customers at our resort on Oahu. North America adjusted development margin in the third quarter was $31 million, the third quarter adjusted development margin percentage was once again strong at 23.1%. Excluding the impact of residential sales in the prior year, this quarter’s margin percentage was down 250 basis points from the third quarter of 2014, driven by a 50 basis point increase in product cost, which was impacted by the mix of inventory sold and by a 200 basis point increase in marketing and sales costs. As we’ve discussed throughout the year, we’ve been ramping up our investments in new programs to help generate future incremental tour volumes, particularly as it relates to new buyer tours. While many of these tours have not yet materialized onsite, as Steve mentioned, our pipeline of future tours resulting from these programs has increased significantly. While the impact of the stronger U.S. dollars likely to impact us in the near-term, we remain confident in our longer-term growth prospects given the strength of our tour pipeline resulting from the new rollout of new marketing and sales programs this year, and the new sales distributions that we expect to open in 2016. In the Company’s financing business, revenue net of related expenses was $17.5 million, down $1 million from the third quarter of last year. For those of you not familiar with our trends over the last years, our financing margin has been decreasing as our notes receivable portfolio has been declining faster than we’ve been originating new notes. However, given the long-term profitability of this business, we’ve been working to identify and implement programs to help drive financing propensity higher than the 40% to 45% that we’ve been averaging over the last few years. I’m happy to say that we began seeing the success of these programs in the second quarter which has continued into the third quarter. In fact, our North America propensity reached 53%, nine points higher than the third quarter of last year, with our gross notes receivable balance increasing from the end of the second quarter. We expect that for the first time since becoming a public company. We will begin to see year-over-year growth in financing profit starting in the fourth quarter of 2015. During the quarter, we successfully completed $264 million note securitization, at an interest rate of 2.56% and 96.5% advance rate. This transaction generated $255 million of gross proceeds, of which the remaining $51 million is expected to be released from restricted cash in the fourth quarter as the remaining notes are sold in accordance with the terms of the securitization. Shifting to our rental business, total company rental revenues were up $10 million, primarily driven by a 6% increase in transient keys rented, $4 million from revenue associated with hotels we currently owned in San Diego and Australia and higher plus point revenue. Rental revenues net of expenses remain strong, up nearly $2.5 million over last year to $13 million. In our resort management and other services business, company results improved $3 million in the third quarter to $26 million. Results reflected higher ancillary profits, as well as higher fees for managing our portfolio of resorts and improved exchange company activity. In our Asia segment, adjusted results were break-even compared to $1 million in the prior year third quarter. We are working on the conversion of several floors of the Surfers Paradise Hotel on the Gold Coast in Australia and expect to sell the remaining portion of that downsized hotel to a third-party within the next year. Our strategy in Asia-Pacific region remains the same to continue to find new destinations with strong onsite sales to generate future top-line growth. And as in North America we will pursue capital efficient transactions when appropriate. In Europe, our strategy remains the same to sell-through our remaining developer inventory as efficiently as possible. In the third quarter, segment results were $6 million, down $1.5 million, mainly driven by lower contract sales and development margin. Not surprising given our strategy for this segment, as well as the current economic climate in the region. Shifting now to our return of capital to shareholders, we paid our quarterly dividend on October 8 of roughly $8 million and also repurchased roughly $40 million of outstanding shares in the quarter. Year-to-date we have returned $130 million to our shareholders, through $106 million of share repurchases and $24 million of dividends. With respect to our share repurchase program, we have been out of the markets since the middle of August. However, we intend to get back into the market next week. And I’m pleased to say that our Board of Directors also increased our share repurchase authorization by an additional two million shares bringing our total authorization to 3.6 million shares. Turning to our balance sheet, from the beginning of 2015, real estate inventory balances declined $52 million to $716 million, including $352 million of finished inventory, which represents less than two years of contract sales based on our current growth projections. The Company’s total gross debt outstanding increased $69 million from the end of 2014 to $780 million, all but roughly $3 million of which is non-recourse debt associated with securitized notes. In addition, $40 million of mandatorily redeemable preferred stock remains outstanding. At the end of the quarter, cash and cash equivalents totaled $322 million. We also had roughly $51 million of restricted cash related to our recent securitization which we expect to be released in the fourth quarter. So let me close with my thoughts about the quarter and how we view our outlook for the remainder of the year. As Steve mentioned, some of the headwinds related to the stronger U.S. dollar in the third quarter are likely to continue into the fourth quarter. As a result, we’re expecting contract sales growth to be relatively flat to slightly below prior year in the fourth quarter, bringing full year contract sales guidance to a range of flat to up 2%. Even with this lower contract sales outlook, we expect adjusted development margin percentage for 2015 to be at the lower end of the 21% to 22% guidance range previously provided. As it relates to our fourth quarter EBITDA, we expect development margin to outperform prior year given the turnaround of revenue reportability from the third quarter. In addition, we expect our other lines of business to contribute to year-over-year growth as well. In our rental business, we expect to continue to grow the topline in effectively managed costs. In our resort management business, we expect that our stable, recurring fee stream will continue to provide year-over-year growth and we expect our financing business, which has declined over the past few years to stabilize and begin growing in the fourth quarter. For all these reasons, we are confident that for the full year we will deliver adjusted EBITDA towards the higher end of our guidance range. Regarding adjusted free cash flow, we are on target to generate $175 million to $200 million of adjusted free cash flow in 2015. Please note that this guidance includes approximately $20 million of unidentified inventory spending. However, depending on the timing of executing potential new deals, this spending maybe differed into 2016. I’m proud of what we’ve accomplished to-date, and I look forward to wrapping up another strong year. As always, we appreciate your interest in Marriott Vacations Worldwide. And with that we will open up the call for Q&A. Rob?