John E. Geller
Analyst · the company SunTrust
Thank you, Steve, and good morning to everyone joining us on the call. We ended 2013 with a solid fourth quarter, continuing our trend of improved VPG and increased development margin. Our North America segment, once again, is a large contributor, with contract sales increasing $22 million over the fourth quarter of 2012 to $186 million. This was due to an increase of $6 million from residential sales as we continue to sell-through our remaining excess built inventory, and $16 million of additional timeshare sales, approximately $9 million of which related to the 53rd week. Total company reported development margin was $47 million, an increase of $7 million over the fourth quarter of 2012. Year-over-year improvements at product cost and marketing and sales spend more than offset a tough prior year comp, which had benefited from $11 million of favorable revenue reportability and $4 million of favorable of product cost true-up activity. The fourth quarter development margin percentage improved 450 basis points over the fourth quarter of 2012 to 23.3%. In North America, reported development margin increased 180 basis points over the fourth quarter of 2012 to 26%. After adjusting both quarters for the impact of reportability, adjusted development margin improved roughly 600 basis points to 25.4%. This improvement was driven by a 320-basis-point reduction in product costs, primarily due to the success of our inventory repurchase program. We repurchased roughly $47 million of inventory in 2013 and expect to repurchase over $50 million this year, as we continue to buy back inventory at less than replacement cost. We expect continued improvement in product costs, with 2014 total company product cost rate between 31% and 32%. Additionally, marketing and sales costs improved over the fourth quarter of 2012 by 290 basis points, to 48%. This was driven by over 0.05 point improvement in closing efficiency over the fourth quarter of 2012, resulting in a 6.8% increase in VPG. Full-year company adjusted development margin continues to move toward our goal of 20%, ending the year at 19.8%. North America was, again, the key driver with an adjusted development margin of 21.8%. Looking at our rental business, rental revenues in the fourth quarter were $69 million, $11 million higher than the fourth quarter of 2012, driven primarily from higher occupancy on increased availability of inventory to rent. Rental revenue net of expenses, however, was a loss of $13 million compared to a loss of $9 million in the fourth quarter of 2012. $1 million of this additional loss is due to higher charges related to the Marriott Rewards pre-spin liability as redemption cost came in higher than expected. Remember, this liability will be paid down over the next couple of years and will be fully paid off in 2016. The remaining loss in the fourth quarter was due primarily to additional costs associated with more inventory available to rent in a softer demand period. As we have discussed on prior calls, because of seasonality, our rental business does well in the first 3 quarters of the year, but the fourth quarter is our shoulder season and we typically incur a loss. This trend is evident in our 2013 results, in which rental revenues, after expenses, were $24 million through the end of the third quarter. This compares to $9 million through the first 3 quarters of 2012. So while higher inventory availability allowed us to drive significant improvement in the first 3 quarters of the year, the opposite was true in the fourth quarter. However, for the full year 2013, results showed significant improvement, with profits of $11 million versus breakeven last year. In our resort management and other services business, revenue, net of expenses, improved $5 million to $23 million in the quarter. These results reflect higher annual club dues earned in connection with our North America points product, higher management fees and improved ancillary results. Turning to our Asia-Pacific segment. Results were $3 million, an improvement of $3 million over the fourth quarter of last year due to reduced marketing and sales spend from the closure of underperforming, off-site sales centers late in 2012. These closures also drove full year results higher by $4 million to $8 million in 2013. Moving to Europe. Adjusted segment results were $3 million in the fourth quarter, flat year-over-year, and full year adjusted segment results were $14 million, a $5 million improvement over 2012. This was due to improved rental results and reduced marketing and sales costs, as we are optimizing our structure in the region to align with our strategy to sell out our remaining developer inventory. In our financing business revenue, net of financing expenses in consumer financing interest expense, was flat compared to the fourth quarter of 2012, as lower interest income was offset by lower interest expense. As of the end of 2013, the weighted average interest rate of our securitization debt is 3.5%. Our notes receivable balance continues to decline as prior year notes are burning off faster than we are originating new notes. We expect this trend to reverse itself in 2015. As an update on our organization and separation plan, we have successfully completed the majority of our separation from Marriott and expect to complete the full implementation of our remaining organizational changes by the end of 2014. In 2013, we spent approximately $19 million on these efforts, $8 million of which was incurred in the fourth quarter. We had achieved $10 million of cumulative cost savings to date and expect to achieve $3 million to $5 million of additional ongoing savings by the end of this year, with the balance of savings occurring in 2015. Turning to our balance sheet and liquidity position since the end of 2012. Real estate inventory balances declined $17 million to $864 million, which is comprised of $369 million of finished goods, $151 million of work-in-process and $344 million of land and infrastructure. The company's debt outstanding was $718 million, flat until the end of 2012, including $674 million in non-recourse debt associated with our securitized notes, and $40 million of mandatorily redeemable preferred stock of the subsidiary. Our 2013 full-year adjusted free cash flow was $175 million, within the guidance range of $170 million to $185 million. At the end of 2013, cash and cash equivalents totaled $200 million, and we had $78 million of notes receivable eligible for securitization. We also had $199 million in available capacity under our $200 million revolving credit facility. Turning to our share repurchase program that we implemented at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2013, we have repurchased over 1,035,000 shares through yesterday at an average price of $50.19 per share, representing nearly 1/3 of the authorization that was approved by our board in October. Now let me take a minute to discuss our outlook for 2014. We have seen tremendous improvements in our business over the last couple of years. Adjusted development margins have improved almost threefold. Our rental results have improved considerably and are contributing positively to our earnings, and our financing business has benefited from record-low borrowing rates. We expect 2014 adjusted EBITDA to be between $185 million and $200 million. We expect total company contract sales, excluding residential sales, to grow between 5% and 8%, with North America contract sales to grow between 4% and 7%. Adjusted company development margin is expected to be between 20% and 21%, led by North America, with adjusted development margin of 22% to 23%. We expect adjusted fully diluted earnings per share to be between $2.41 and $2.67 per share, excluding the impact of any future share repurchases. And lastly, adjusted free cash flow is expected to be between $135 million and $160 million for the year, as our 2014 forecasted cash flows should approximate a more normalized run rate. As we have previously discussed, we expect to benefit from lower cash income taxes and inventory spending, which will offset higher spending associated with the pay down of our Marriott Rewards pre-spin liability. So let me close by echoing what you heard from Steve. We have achieved great success in our first 2 years as a public company, and our strategies have not changed. We will continue to focus on driving profitable growth, improving margins and generating strong free cash flow. I look forward to reporting on that progress in future quarters. As always, we appreciate your interest in Marriott Vacations Worldwide. And with that, I will now open up the call for Q&A. Operator?