John E. Geller
Analyst · SunTrust
Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. The second quarter continued the trends of improved development margin and increased adjusted EBITDA we saw in the first quarter. Our largest segment, North America, saw a $13 million improvement in the sale of vacation ownership products or what we call development revenue. This improvement was driven by $11 million of favorable revenue reportability and $3 million of lower sales reserve, as the performance of our notes receivable portfolio has improved over last year. Contract sales in the quarter were flat due to lower tour flow, as Steve mentioned. The favorable revenue reportability had a $3 million positive effect on reported development margin, increasing the margin by 130 basis points to 20.8%. Conversely, in the second quarter of 2012, due to promotional activity, reported development margin was impacted unfavorably by $3 million, reducing development margin by nearly 200 basis points. Adjusting for the impact of reportability in both years, development margin increased 2.7 percentage points to 19.5% in the second quarter from 16.8% last year. We have said before that reportability can affect our results on a quarter-over-quarter basis. However, we do not expect revenue reportability on an annual basis to have a material impact on our North America margins. Staying in North America, market and sales costs were responsible for nearly 1 percentage point of development margin improvement over the second quarter of 2012. This resulted from a 1 percentage point improvement in closing efficiency, as well as higher pricing, driving an 8% growth in VPG. Marketing and sales spend was effectively flat quarter-over-quarter on increased development revenue. Product cost in this segment improved nearly 2 percentage points even though the second quarter of last year benefited from a positive product cost true-up of $3 million. Our 2013 product cost improvements reflect the success of our inventory repurchase program. We continue to believe product costs will remain at approximately 33% for 2013. In our rental business, our second quarter results improved in North America by $7 million. As we continue to better understand owner behavior, including their tendencies to bank their points, we were able to open transient rental availability sooner in the year, allowing us to drive higher revenues. Shifting to our rental outlook for the year, Marriott Rewards pre-Spin liability costs, which negatively impacted 2012 full year results, have moderated, but remain a potential headwind in the second half of the year. Also, realize that the first half of the year is typically stronger for our rental business than the second half due to seasonality. However, we do expect the second half of 2013 to be better than last year, and we still expect year-over-year results to be materially better for the full year versus 2012. Shifting to our resort management and other services business, revenue net of expenses improved $3 million to $16 million in the quarter. Most of the improvement in the quarter came from our internal exchange company, which produced an additional $2 million of improved results year-over-year, as well as improved ancillary operations. In our Asia-Pacific segment, our development margin continued to improve, increasing by $1 million to $2 million on significantly lower sales volume due to the shutdown of less effective offsite sales galleries in the region. Turning to our Europe segment. I want to take a moment to talk about an issue that we identified in the second quarter. During an internal review, we discovered that certain sales documentation that we had provided some of our buyers did not meet the technical format required under applicable European regulations. The result of this was that the period of time that the purchasers had to resume their contracts was extended beyond the normal rescission period. Remember, under GAAP, revenue cannot be recognized until the rescission period has ended. Originally, we recorded revenues from these sales based on the rescission periods in effect assuming compliant documentation had been provided to the purchasers. As a result, we recognized revenue in incorrect periods between 2010 and 2013. During the second quarter, we took corrective measures, including providing proper documentation for purchasers who were still in an extended rescission period. As a result, approximately $9 million of pretax income was recognized in the second quarter of 2013 related to these sales. Putting aside the timing of the revenue recognition, the bottom line impact to the company was that approximately $2 million of sales ultimately rescinded, which equates to approximately $1 million of pretax income. It is important to note that this issue was isolated to our Europe segment, and there was virtually no other impact to the company's financials. However, since this income was previously reported in prior-year results, for comparability, we have excluded the income from our adjusted results in the second quarter and made corresponding adjustments to the prior periods. Turning to our financing business, revenue net of expenses were down $4 million in the quarter, as reduced expenses from lower foreclosure activity roughly offset lower interest income year-over-year. However, after subtracting interest expense from our securitized debt, our financing profit was up $1 million over the second quarter of 2012. For the full year, we expect financing revenue net of expenses and securitized interest expense should be flat to 2012. In terms of the securitization market, while we have seen some increase in interest rates, rates remain extremely low compared to historical levels. We expect to complete a securitization later in the third quarter on terms more favorable than the securitization we completed last year. Turning to our balance sheet and liquidity position, since the end of 2012, real estate inventory balances have declined $19 million to $862 million, and total debt outstanding decreased $31 million to $687 million, including $643 million in nonrecourse debt associated with securitizations and $40 million of mandatorily redeemable preferred stock of the subsidiary. At the end of the second quarter, cash and cash equivalents totaled $104 million, and we had $124 million of vacation ownership notes receivable available for securitization. We also had $160 million in available capacity under our revolving credit facility at the end of the quarter. With respect to our free cash flow, we have had positive movement in several areas that have favorably affected our 2013 free cash flow outlook. First, you may recall that we previously projected our cash taxes would exceed our tax provision by approximately $5 million. Now with some successful tax planning, particularly around our election to use the installment method as it relates to our finance contract sales, we are now expecting our cash tax position to turn around significantly, providing a cash flow benefit of over $40 million as compared to our previous estimates. Recall prior to the Spin-Off, Marriott International handled these tax efforts. As part of standing up our new tax process in conjunction with the Spin-Off, we are focused on opportunities to improve cash taxes, as well as reduce our overall effective tax rate. While the $40 million include certain onetime benefits, we do expect future cash flow improvements from these tax planning efforts. Second, in consumer financing, we have seen slightly higher cash sales, as well as higher notes receivable collections than we had previously forecasted. These changes are improving our projected cash flow position by roughly $20 million. These changes have enabled us to raise our outlook for adjusted free cash flow for the year, excluding the impact of organization and separation related charges and litigation settlements by $65 million to $120 million to $135 million. Remember, the $120 million to $135 million guidance includes near-term puts-and-takes which are still affecting our free cash flow in 2013, including the Marriott Rewards pre-Spin liability pay-down, lower cash taxes and lower inventory spend. Our 2003 (sic)[2013] free cash flow, normalized for these items, would be between $115 million and $120 million, which is approximately $5 million to $10 million higher than last quarter, reflecting the improvement from lower cash taxes. In addition to our adjusted free cash flow guidance, as a result of a lower projected effective tax rate for 2013, we are also raising our adjusted net income guidance to $72 million to $78 million and adjusted fully diluted earnings per share guidance to $1.94 to $2.10 for the full year. Lastly, as Steve discussed, we believe the full year adjusted EBITDA and adjusted development margin should be at the higher end of our issued guidance range for 2013. Our second quarter was a solid continuation of the year and is providing great momentum for the second half. In closing, we continue to meet and exceed our established targets and are very pleased with the progress to date. And while we do not know what the future holds, we are cautiously optimistic that the macroeconomic conditions will continue to improve through the remainder of 2013. As always, we appreciate your interest in Marriott Vacations Worldwide. And with that, we will now open up the call for Q&A. Liz?