Martine A. Rothblatt
Analyst · Wedbush Securities
The pipeline activities of United Therapeutics are focused on bringing in our second line of products, which are oral prostacyclin analogs. And as you can see from the guidance that I mentioned at the beginning of the call, we believe that our current products have a clear potential to take us over a $1 billion in sales by 2013. And in fact, they've got definite leg and headspace in the market to go beyond that. But what gets us even more excited is the potential of our oral prostacyclin products, especially because there are no other forms of oral prostacyclin in the pulmonary hypertension space. And as a result, we are bringing the oral prostacyclin into the clinic this year in some very strong and innovative ways. So let me provide a little bit more color on this topic, starting from, let's say, the market standpoint. As of now, there are indisputably over 30,000 patients with pulmonary hypertension being actively treated by doctors in the United States alone. And for ease on tracking things during this call, let's just focus on the U.S. market, so over 30,000 being treated. Over 20,000 of those patients are being treated with PDE-5 inhibitors. It's at this point in time just about neck-and-neck sildenafil and tadalafil. Among doctors who are most experienced in treating pulmonary hypertension, such as the top 1/3 of doctors in terms of numbers of pulmonary hypertension patients per doctor, tadalafil is far out ahead, prescribed basically 3:1, often 4:1 to sildenafil. And it's about neck-and-neck right now in the middle ranges, and those -- the trend lines are that tadalafil scripts continue to grow, as I mentioned briefly in response to the previous question, sildenafil scripts are continuing to decline. Now with the ETRA space, there is again, not as many patients on ETRAs as on PDE-5s, but still very, very impressive numbers, somewhere in the 15,000 to 20,000 patient range. And then you've got the more invasive therapies, the prostacyclin therapies, either torrential or inhaled that are down around -- if you add them all up together, maybe 5,000, 6,000, 7,000 patients. So the question is -- the most important question in the pulmonary hypertension space is, why are there not 20,000 patients or 25,000 patients or even 15,000 patients on prostacyclin analogs when there's 15,000, 20,000, 25,000 on PDE-5 and ETRA? And the clear answer is that there's no pill form of prostacyclin. There are pill forms of ETRAs and pill forms of PDE-5. United Therapeutics is going to change all of that. And with our oral treprostinil development with our oral beraprost 314d single-isomer development, we would be able to bring forward an oral form of prostacyclin that will have the price point comparable to the other prostacyclin therapies but the numbers of patients that are in that 15,000, 20,000, 25,000 patient categories. So this is the enormous potential of United Therapeutics, to leverage those kind of numbers once we get approval of the oral treprostinil and beraprost 314d isomer to market in the U.S. And that is the answer to your question. During 2012, we are marching oral treprostinil to some very exciting developments, leading to the -- ultimately, we believe, leading to a label that shows that oral treprostinil extends time to clinical worsening. And there are other smaller -- so just not registration-size, but perhaps ultimately clinical practice guidance-size trials that are being conducted under Roger's group, very, very exciting stuff. On the beraprost 314d side, we undertook extensive computer simulations and models and determined that by dosing the 314d 4 times a day rather than 2 times a day, we'd be able to achieve the type of 0 order release characteristics that would be associated with a positive clinical outcome, rather than the disappointing results from the Phase II trial. So we are now very hard at work with replicating the computer stimulations with actual patient practice in the patients. It has to be completed during the month of June and July of this year. And then immediately thereafter, there will be a proof of concept study that follows on as well. So the clinical activities for 2012 are about bringing 2 separate drugs, 314d as well as oral treprostinil, each of which have 10,000 patient, if not much greater, and roughly $100,000 per year revenue potential forward into the clinic.