Richard Hayne
Analyst · Kimberly Greenberger with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open
Thanks David, and good afternoon folks. This is a difficult period for U.S. fashion apparel retailers. And URBNs first quarter reflect that difficulty. Total retail segment comp sales registered a disappointing 3% decline, well below plan. This drove increased promotional activity and more margin pressure than we had anticipated. As in previous quarters the company saw extreme variability in results by channel. The sales short-fall in Q1 was wholly attributable to weaker than expected store channel performance in North America, where all three brands have encountered sluggish customer traffic and sales. This issue is impacting virtually all U.S. brick and mortar retailers there are simply too many stores and too many malls in North America. We expect to see more closures and brands disappear until a healthier balance is reached. I believe our brand delivered some of the best most creative store experiences in the world. However, it is clear that this experiences currently aren’t enough to overcome the decline in traffic and a tepid interest in apparel and stores. We intend to continue to treat our stores like the important part of the omni shopping experience they are, and equipped them in our associates with the technology they need to please the omni-channel shopper. In the quarter demand for women's apparel in stores was particularly weak. Besides the traffic problem all brands had an assortment issue, execution in the dress category. Each brand planned as dress business down from the very robust spring '16 level. To belief was that in spring '17 some of those sales would migrate to other categories like bottoms or to the newer fashion looks of Onesie and Rockers [ph]. Thus, the brands planned, ordered and therefore sold fewer dresses during the period. During Q1 sales of bottoms, Onesie and Rockers did indeed trend up nicely, but except for the Free People brand increases in these categories did not offset the losses in dresses. In that respect dresses, we planned lower than they needed to be. Also since the dress assortment carries one of the highest average price points in the women's assortment by ordering and selling fewer dresses each brand's AUR suffered. Further depressing AUR during the quarter was the change in sales mix by product category Unfortunately, problems with the store channel overshadowed the great progress made in our other two channels. The URBN digital channel progress is evidenced by a strong double-digit increase in sessions which in turn produce double-digit direct sales gains. DTC penetration to total retail segment jump by almost 400 basis points to our highest penetration ever. Even surpassing passing Q4 last year when it typically peaks. Direct was not the only channel to showed strong results. The Wholesale channel producing an outstanding quarter which I'll speak too shortly. Due to the significant disparity in channel results we moved aggressively during the period to bring our cost structure more in line with sales. This resulted in changes of each brand's store structure with the elimination of some redundant positions and new job assignments throughout the store hierarchy. Keeping North American stores expenses under control as traffic falls is a challenge and will likely require cooperation from our land lords. Fortunately, in the past 24 months they seem to be more willing to partner with us. The digital theme has also been restructured moving from three separate groups each serving a single brand with little cross brand coordination to a centralized configuration, where resources are better priorities and aligned. New rolls were added during the period to help in the areas of personalization, mobile and omnichannel intergradations. Digital improvements in the first quarter including the successful rollout of our new strike platform to the Urban Outfitters brand globally including the launch of our IOS and Android apps in Europe. With this implementation, all major brands now share a common platform. The new platform has better user speed and navigation and has resulted in double digit basis point improvements in bounce rates and conversion. It along with the new digital structure should enable URBN to leverage digital investments across all brands and make improvements to our sites at a greatly accelerated pace. Other enhancement to side functionality and convenience scheduled for implementation this year include full inventory availability by store, pickup in store, greater site personalization, search and browse improvements, custom order furniture capabilities, improved customer communication and better service levels like faster, less expenses and more reliable delivery options. Now I'll discuss first quarter brand highlights beginning with Urban Outfitters. U.S. quarter was in line with the total company. Global retail segment comp sales fell by 3%, women's apparel in North America underperformed against our expectations mainly due to the issues I discussed previously that is poor store traffic and sales, lower dress sales and lower AUR. But in Europe the women's category significantly overperformed with strong comp sales in both store and direct channels. Curiously a considerable amount of the women's product is common to both geographies, which might support the notion that one of the biggest problems based in U.S. retailer is too much supply and too many stores. Despite the top line short fall the brand exited the first quarter in a clean inventory position. Total comp inventory decreased by 3% versus the prior year period and product freshness improved with the percent of each product over 90 days following by approximately 800 basis points. This improvement reflects the progress the team has made in adopting a faster speed to market discipline meant to have quicker inventory turnover and allowed new product to reach the customer faster. The Urban brand continues to see good growth in it's direct channel were all categories except women's accessories recording solid regular price year-over-year sales increases. Sessions this year versus the same period last year advance by mid-teens and this was accomplished before the benefit of new platform, which was installed in mid-April. Increased traffic is being driven impart by social media. UO Instagram followers now stand at 7 million, a 43% increase over the same time last year and the brand was mentioned almost 0.5 million times on Instagram in the first quarter, a sequential increase from Q4 of 129%. Moving to the Anthropologie Group. I believe David covered much of the quarter performance information in his commentary so I won't repeat it. What I do want to reinforce is how much opportunity I believe resides in this brand. We continue to execute the strategy outlined three years ago at our Vision 2020 conference. That is how we realized the customers were migrating to digital. The only things we miss judge was the velocity of that migration. Much of our work was aimed and increasing our capabilities, influence and categories beyond apparel. The expanded category constant was primarily designed to help drive our direct business and secondarily to diversify away from reliance on women's apparel, it turns out our strategy was [indiscernible]. Once the women's apparel assortment is improved and I believe we are making progress toward that goal, the Anthropologie Group will be well positioned to be one of the dominant lifestyle brands, serving their chosen demographic across multiple categories. I now turn your attention to the Free People brand, first let me say that I believe that the Free People apparel offering is currently among the best and freshest in all retail. In Q1 online customers enthusiastically embraced the fashion and drove full price apparel comp increases. But once again sluggish comp store sales diminished that success, so total retail segment comp sales grew by only 2%. Relative to the other URBN brands, Free People benefits from having the highest penetration of direct sales to its retail segments sales. This is encouraging because we believe the other brands we evolve to this higher DTC penetration as well. The Free People wholesale business posted impressive revenue growth in the first quarter with year-over-year sales up 14%. Increases came from gaining in the core apparel offering and all customer groups including domestic and international accounts and department specialty and digital stores. Expansion categories accounted for 25% of wholesale revenues in Q1, the brand theme believes this percentage will grow as new categories like [indiscernible] gained wider recognition and acceptance. To that end marketing efforts in the quarter includes mailing and FD moment catalog to 390,000 customers and opening a small moment pop-up shop in New York City. The Free People team learned from past problems and exercise outstanding inventory control in Q1. As of April, total brands comp inventories this year stood 21% below last year, while the brand delivered a 10% increase in total sales. In addition, the brand realized a several 100 basis points improvement in merchandize margins in the quarter. Except for comp sales in the store channel, the Free People team delivered an outstanding quarter. That's a short look at URBN's first quarter results. Now let me turn your attention to our vision for the future. Short term I believe the trend established in Q1 will likely persist into Q2 with some upside potential in the Free People brand. Second quarter to-date store traffic and sales at all brands continued to be challenged. Since it's unclear if or when this trend will change. It's important for URBN to focus and invest in other areas of opportunity. Currently we are experiencing success in four major business areas and these four are where we see the most opportunity for future growth. So, first is digital. Digital is URBN's biggest opportunity and our primary focus. We intend to accelerate the growth of our digital reach, by this I mean we will large our audience, add followers, expand our social media presence and at the same time build our content including adding products, product categories, brands, and services along with more compelling images, video and more user generated content. We'll also continue to invest in better user experiences. This requires continual improvements to our sites and apps, greater ability to know the customer and tailor their experiences based on that knowledge, and better service levels regarding delivery. We believe the total digital sales could double within five years. The second is international, on-American sales currently account for less than 10% of total URBN sales. Given the power of our brands and their recent strong performance in Europe we believe we have substantial opportunity to extend their reach and increase the international sales penetration. To that end last year we created a new position, Global Head of International, and hired an executive with many years of international expansion experience. He has made significant progress in identifying and negotiating more than a half dozen new European store bases [ph] as well as franchise arrangements in multiple Mid-Eastern and other countries. We plan to open three new stores in Europe this year and ramp up that pace over the next several years. Besides opening more stores we'll continue to focus our international expansion efforts using our digital and wholesale channels as well. The third is wholesale, one of the primary strengths of our brand teams is their ability to create compelling products and experiences, in other words to create content. Free People has grown its wholesale revenues at a double-digit pace for five consecutive years. This has been accomplished through a combination of enlarging the brand's reach geographically and expanding the product categories offered. And while Free People is our model this content creation capability exists within each of our brands. We believe we can better leverage and monetize our talent by offering more of our content through the wholesale channel. In addition, we've new and expanded categories that have amazing opportunities for wider distribution. These range from Free People movement to Anthropologie Home. Overall I would like to see our wholesale revenues double within five years. The fourth is our smaller brands. We have spent almost a decade incubating our two brands Holden and Train [ph]. While both brands remain relatively small they are growing the fastest. Both benefitted from becoming part of the Anthropologie Group and both have an opportunity to serve a much larger audience. I believe the Holden [ph] revenues could exceed a $100 million and Terrain could exceed $50 million both within the next three to five years. So in conclusion the URBN brands are powerful and still possess significant untapped opportunities for growth. The four areas of opportunities I just discussed, if properly implemented could add many hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars to our top line. This at a time when many North American retailers are desperately searching for growth vehicles because the traditional method opening more stores is no longer viable. We believe our brands have significant and exciting alternatives and we intend to exploit them. To achieve this growth we intend to invest for the long-term. We won't be arbitrary, we will plan and we will test and learn. But our bias will be towards growth and achieving scale. We have amazing opportunities to expand and extra ordinarily creative talent within the company to accomplish it. I'm quite confident we will succeed. That concludes my prepared remarks. In closing I want to thank our brand and creative leaders as well as our shared service team. I also thank and salute our 24,000 associates worldwide for their hard work, dedication and amazing creativity. Finally, I thank our shareholders for their continued advice and support. I will now turn the call over to your questions.