Hal Khouri
Analyst · Raymond James
Thank you, Fahmi, and good morning, everyone. Before reviewing segment results, I'd like to start by expressing how excited I am to be joining the Upbound organization as the company's CFO and the opportunity to be part of its future success. I joined Upbound in November, drawn by the company's durable foundation and scale paired with its compelling growth profile. I am confident that together, we are poised for exceptional times ahead. Let's now turn to a review of the segment results and then discuss our outlook for fiscal year 2026, after which we will take questions. Starting on Slide 9. Acima recorded another quarter of GMV growth in the fourth quarter, an increase of approximately 40 basis points year-over-year. At nearly $550 million, fourth quarter GMV was the highest it's been since we added Acima 5 years ago. Acima's continued growth is due to a few factors, including the performance of its marketplace, as Fahmi mentioned earlier, in addition to its exceptional sales force continuously onboarding new retailers and servicing existing retailers. Furthermore, we continue to diversify our product lineup with furniture, our largest product category, representing approximately 40% of rental revenue in the fourth quarter compared to 43% in the prior year period. Acima revenue grew 8.6% year-over-year, which was its ninth consecutive quarter of revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA of $87 million was up 7.3% from a year ago. EBITDA margins were down 10 basis points from Q4 of 2024. However, they were up 180 basis points compared to the prior quarter. Acima's loss rate of 10.1% for the fourth quarter was up 110 basis points year-over-year and up 40 basis points sequentially. While Acima's losses finished the year elevated relative to recent levels in our targeted longer-term range, our fourth quarter loss rate was consistent with the guidance we had shared during our third quarter call, where we discussed how certain challenging vintages underwritten earlier in 2025 would temporarily impact Acima losses as they flow through the portfolio. Key performance indicators, including early payment and delinquency trends give us confidence that the adjustments we've made will drive loss rate improvements from here. I'll cover expectations for 2026 in more detail shortly. Let's move to Slide 10 and review Brigit's results for the fourth quarter. Brigit finished the quarter with approximately 1.6 million paid subscribers, which was a nearly 30% increase from the year ago period and a 7.4% increase sequentially. ARPU, or average revenue per user was $14.15 on a monthly basis, a nearly 10% increase from the fourth quarter in 2024 and a 3% lift sequentially. Brigit originated approximately $405 million in cash advances in the fourth quarter. That's up 19% year-over-year and nearly 4% sequentially, reflecting the value that consumers are discovering with not only the product offerings, but also the transparent subscription-based pricing model. For the fourth quarter, Brigit's instant cash loss rate was 3.5%, which was up 70 basis points from the year ago period, primarily due to expansion into new profitable user segments and the impact of a consumer that remains under pressure. Brigit recorded $64.6 million of revenue for the fourth quarter, which represents an increase of 41.5% from the year ago quarter. Subscriptions were 68% of Brigit's fourth quarter revenue with expedited transfer fees and marketplace income representing the balance. Brigit adjusted EBITDA was $11.1 million for the fourth quarter, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.2%, an increase of 110 basis points sequentially. Let's move to the Rent-A-Center results, starting on Page 11. As you'll recall, in late 2024, Rent-A-Center tightened underwriting standards while strategically limiting certain product categories that typically experience higher risk metrics in challenging environments. While these changes weighed on top line performance in 2025, especially in the first half of the year, the segment proved its resiliency and the success of these adjustments in the second half of the year. In the third quarter, we guided that same-store sales would return to flat to positive in the fourth quarter, and we're pleased that the team achieved this goal. Same-store sales increased 80 basis points in the fourth quarter, which was the first positive quarter of same-store sales since 2024. Rent-A-Center recorded nearly $480 million of revenue in the fourth quarter, which was flat compared to the year ago quarter, an improvement of 4.7% year-over-year decrease in the third quarter. Ultimately, those adjustments from late 2024 helped manage Rent-A-Center's loss rate, which improved year-over-year in both the third and the fourth quarters as the portfolio flowed through. The loss rate for the fourth quarter finished at 4.9%, down 10 basis points from the year ago period, in line with the guidance given on our prior call. Rent-A-Center's adjusted EBITDA was $69.2 million, down approximately 13% from the fourth quarter of 2024, while Rent-A-Center's adjusted EBITDA margin was 14.4%, down 230 basis points year-over-year due primarily to the impact of certain expense benefits that positively impacted operating expenses in the prior year period. For Rent-A-Center, 2025 represented a year of stabilization that sets segment on a promising path moving forward. Next, let's cover our liquidity and capital allocation priorities on Slide 12. Our business has a proven and long track record of delivering strong adjusted EBITDA to cash flow conversion. In recent years, accelerating growth at Acima produced a ramp-up in net working capital requirements, which temporarily put a strain on free cash flow. The accelerated growth trajectory led to 2024 free cash flow landing well below historic levels. We are pleased that in 2025, our cash flow generation trended closer to historic norms, finishing the year with approximately $180 million of free cash flow, above the midpoint of our guidance. This represents an increase of $132 million year-over-year and exceeds even 2023 levels by over $30 million. Net cash provided by operating activities was approximately $306 million, an increase of over $200 million year-over-year and due in part to benefits associated with the bonus depreciation provision and the tax legislation last year. I'll say more about our expectations for 2026 in a moment, but we anticipate cash flow to continue to improve in the year ahead. Regarding liquidity, as you'll recall, the company leveraged its balance sheet to address the upfront cash portion of the consideration for the Brigit acquisition in January of 2025. This decreased the company's ABL availability and resulted in approximately $312 million of liquidity at the end of the first quarter. We are pleased that liquidity improved by year-end, reflecting in part the company's refinancing of its Term Loan B in the third quarter. As of December 31, between our cash on hand and revolver availability, liquidity was $358 million. Next, let's take a moment to reiterate our capital allocation priorities, which include reinvesting in the business and funding organic growth, delevering debt on the balance sheet and supporting our shareholder dividend distributions. The company will also consider executing opportunistic share buybacks based on market conditions and funding constraints. And while we continue to remain open to strategic corporate development opportunities as they arise, our current expectation is to focus on organic growth in the near term through our expanded portfolio of products and services across the enterprise. These remain our main priorities entering the new year, and I'll now expand on our approach to each. First, in 2025, we made investments that should bolster our availability to serve our millions of customers efficiently and at an increasing scale, representing a meaningful growth engine for our business. This included approximately $67 million of CapEx, reflecting investment in our technological infrastructure, data modernization initiatives and improvements to our omnichannel customer experience. As we look ahead towards 2026, we expect to continue deploying capital towards investments in our enterprise technology and digital capabilities across segments. Additionally, Upbound's robust free cash flow allows us to sustain a strong dividend alongside other business priorities. Our dividend remains integral to our strategy for returning capital to shareholders. Turning to leverage. At year-end, our net leverage ratio was approximately 2.9x above our leverage ratio of 2.7x at the end of the prior year due to the acquisition of Brigit in January of 2025, but slightly below our recent peak of 3x at the end of the second quarter. With higher free cash flow and adjusted EBITDA growth expected in 2026 as well as consistent focus on deleveraging, we are targeting a leverage ratio in the 2x range over the long term with additional progress expected throughout 2026. We're also frequently asked about share repurchases, especially given our strong cash position, free cash flow generation and recent trading levels. Our team has evaluated share repurchases over the past few months and while compelling, we have to date opted to prioritize our commitment to leverage reduction. That said, we'll continue to evaluate opportunistic share repurchases in the year ahead. And it's worth noting that our expectations for leverage ratio improvement over the coming quarters should enhance the company's ability to return additional capital to shareholders depending on other opportunities to deploy that capital. And finally, following the Brigit acquisition and our focus on integration, we do not currently have any near-term plans for M&A. Our capital structure is flexible and we'll be ready if the right combination of value and strategic fit arises. Before turning to 2026 guidance, I would like to provide an update on the progress we have made regarding a number of our legal and regulatory matters. At year-end 2025, our estimated legal accrual on the balance sheet was $72 million. This accrual is primarily tied to 2 previously disclosed matters where we are now expecting a near-term resolution and reflects what we believe are the ultimate cash amounts that we expect to pay as part of the settlement of those matters. The McBurnie class action is awaiting a final court approval on the settlement. And for the multistate attorney general matter that has been ongoing since 2021, we believe we are nearing a nonbinding agreement in principle with the Executive Committee regarding the primary monetary and injunctive terms of potential settlement. We are actively engaged in discussions with the objective of finalizing the multistate settlement agreement in the near term, although any final binding settlement cannot be assured. Our 10-K filing will provide more details on both matters. Let's shift to our financial outlook. In this external operating environment, we expect the near to midterm horizon will continue to be challenging and characterized by continued evolving domestic economic and monetary policies, uneven macro factors that pressure our core consumer discretionary income and demand levels, but also tend to make our range of flexible financial solutions even more relevant to these consumers. This outlook also assumes a normalized tax season and maintaining our conservative underwriting posture throughout the year. At Acima, we expect continued growth and opportunity. Our team is committed to profitably expanding GMV through several avenues, including by acquiring new retail accounts through a robust business development pipeline as well as enhancing productivity amongst our existing merchant base. Acima will also focus on leveraging its customer relationships and data to deepen connections while boosting engagement and lifetime value. We'll do this by expanding our direct-to-consumer marketplace and our virtual lease card, as Fahmi described earlier. Finally, Acima's loss rate is expected to benefit from continued disciplined and targeted underwriting and the flow-through of those challenging 2025 customer vintages I mentioned earlier. Taken together, we expect 2026 GMV and revenue to increase mid-single digits year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA margin should remain in line with 2025 and losses stabilizing in the 9.5% area for the year. Turning to Brigit. We expect the segment to maintain a strong growth trajectory in the new year. Brigit's value proposition is especially relevant in today's economy with more consumers appreciating the flexibility and value of Brigit's instant cash product and its other financial wellness tools. That's why the segment remains focused on refining its marketing efforts and rolling out new products and features that further meet the evolving needs of its users. Through continued innovation in financial health and liquidity tools, Brigit aims to serve its customers more frequently and with even more relevance, strengthening the business' long-term competitive positioning while reinforcing the segment's role as a high-growth engine within Upbound's portfolio. As a result of these efforts, we expect Brigit to deliver annualized revenue growth of over 30% in the $265 million to $285 million range and an adjusted EBITDA in the $50 million to $60 million range. Although the figures are trailing our initial estimates from the 2024 acquisition announcement, this variance is impacted by the extended time line required for launching new products and obtaining necessary underwriting and product insights for iteration and improving in a challenging macroeconomic environment. Despite these factors, we remain optimistic about Brigit's future financial performance. We continue to support product design, marketing and infrastructure development to drive growth. Brigit is committed to ongoing product innovation and will prudently manage the scale and timing of new rollouts to navigate the current economic uncertainties while testing additional marketing initiatives to showcase the anticipated levels of economic performance of the portfolio. At Rent-A-Center, 2026 priorities will include a focus on customer-driven growth as well as improvements that modernize and unify the digital customer experience. The business will leverage the force of its expanded digital presence and its national store footprint to focus on driving productivity, all while continuing to focus on capital efficiency and disciplined cost management. As a result of the Rent-A-Center team's efforts over the past year, we believe that trends have stabilized and the business is poised for modest top line growth in the coming year with full year 2026 revenue expected to be flat to positive relative to 2025 and with adjusted EBITDA margins in line with 2025. At the Upbound level, our corporate costs are expected to be roughly flat to 2025 as a percentage of revenue at approximately 4%. We expect the tax rate to be slightly higher than 2025 in the 26% range with an average diluted share count for the year of approximately 59.4 million shares. Taken together, our consolidated outlook for 2026 includes a revenue range of $4.7 billion to $4.95 billion, and adjusted EBITDA range of $500 million to $535 million and fully diluted non-GAAP earnings per share of $4 to $4.35. The company expects to increase free cash flow to approximately $200 million in 2026. This growth is expected to be primarily driven by enhanced profitability and the accelerated tax depreciation benefits from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act projected to augment the company's cash flow by around $100 million. This guidance is inclusive of a payment outflow of $72 million in nonordinary course legal and regulatory settlements as previously discussed, including the largest portion of that amount for the multistate matter, and it assumes relatively flat CapEx spend to support business growth initiatives. These factors position Upbound favorably to advance its capital allocation priorities as we focus on delivering compelling and sustainable returns for shareholders. In regards to the first quarter, each of our segments will navigate seasonal and macro factors, including the start of the tax season. Based on what we've seen to this point, we expect consolidated revenue to be $1.16 billion to $1.26 billion and adjusted EBITDA to be $120 million to $130 million. We expect non-GAAP EPS to range from $1.05 to $1.15 compared to $1 a year ago. With respect to loss rates, we expect Rent-A-Center's lease charge-off rate to remain flat to slightly higher sequentially. Acima's lease charge-offs should improve sequentially, finishing the first quarter in the mid 9% area and remaining in that range over the course of the year, while first quarter GMV should be relatively flat to the prior year, reflecting the tightening we've undertaken to keep lease charge-offs in our target range. Brigit's net advance loss rate should remain in the 3% to 3.5% range in the first quarter. Now as we wrap up, I'd like to emphasize a couple of points that Fahmi mentioned earlier. In 2025, we made substantial progress on our key strategic priorities. For over 5 decades, we've provided accessible and flexible lease-to-own solutions to millions of underserved consumers. In 2021, we added further scale by significantly expanding into higher-growth digital technology-driven lease-to-own channels through our Acima acquisition. Now with Brigit, we've added in-demand scalable digital financial health and liquidity tools that expand our growth opportunities even further and our ability to support our core customer when and where they need us most. These expanding complementary products and capabilities make our platform even more relevant, especially in today's economy, when consumers are looking for innovative solutions that improve their financial lives. Our consumers' needs and expectations are always evolving. And in 2025, we enhanced our ability to meet those needs today and in the future. In 2026, we will continue to prudently introduce relevant solutions with scalable growth opportunities, both online through expanded digital capabilities and in-store at our over 2,200 retail locations across the United States and Mexico. For our stakeholders, we remain committed to creating long-term sustainable value by building off of our strong financial foundation, allocating capital thoughtfully and responsibly growing our business through our platform of connected financial products and services. We look forward to delivering on our goals again in 2026 and continuing the momentum we've built across our brands. Thank you for your time this morning. Operator, you may now open the line for questions.