Earnings Labs

Unilever PLC (UL)

Q2 2012 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 26, 2012

$56.99

-1.23%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.48%

1 Week

+0.53%

1 Month

+1.46%

vs S&P

-2.49%

Transcript

Raoul Jean-Marc Sidney Huet

Management

Well, hello, everybody, and welcome to Unilever's Second Quarter and Half Year Results Presentation, being presented to you on the eve of the London 2012 Olympics. It's actually a great time to be in Sunny London and we wish everybody well in what promises to be a really exciting period for the city and hopefully for the country as well. With all the noise around the global economic and political situation, I believe it's important to not lose sight of the essential principles that underpin the Olympic Games, which is actually to unite the peoples of the world through fierce but friendly competition. May it long last. Today, we will keep it brief so that we can get to the questions and the discussions, which I know most of you value most. But let me start with the usual disclaimer relating to the forward-looking statements and the non-GAAP measures. Now before we talk about the results, let's briefly remind ourselves of the wider context in which we operate. A further deterioration of the macroeconomic climate, increased volatility in commodities and currencies that frankly doesn't seem to get less and last but not least, the competitive environment that remains challenging despite other noises out there to the contrary sometimes. Now increasingly, the continued high level of economic and political uncertainty further fuels an already concerning macroeconomic picture. It is fair to say that following the 2008 crisis unprecedented policy support has not resulted in the desired levels of growth and the enormous deleveraging we've been always talking about and we see now happening, especially in the developed world, is starting to dampen market growth and consumption. In the emerging markets, growth rates are slowing as well. In China, you've seen it go down from about 10% to 7.5%. Brazil, always running…

Raoul Jean-Marc Sidney Huet

Management

Thank you very much, Paul, and good morning to everyone. For the first half of this year, turnover was EUR 25.4 billion. That's up 11.5%, with underlying sales growth of 7%, which is well ahead of our markets. M&A contributed 2.2% to turnover growth. Underlying volume growth for the first half was 2.8%, with price at plus 4.1%. Currencies had a beneficial impact of 1.9%. If you take rates today at the end of July levels for the balance of the year, we would see a positive full year currency impact on turnover of around 3%. Most of the growth has been driven by continued strong performances in Home Care, as well as Personal Care and across most of the emerging markets. Turnover was EUR 13.2 billion in the second quarter, up 11% on the same period last year and that's with a positive contribution of 3.1% from currencies. Here, too, we saw a positive impact from M&A of nearly 2% and this reflects the final quarter before the Alberto Culver acquisition is lapped. The minority squeeze out of Concern Kalina has now been completed and the new acquisition has started very well indeed. Underlying sales growth of 5.8% had a strong volume and price component as you can see from this chart. Now let me pick up just a few of the category highlights. Turning to Personal Care. In the first half of 2012, Personal Care accounted for more than 1/3 of group turnover. Underlying sales growth was 10.4% over the first half with 6.7% coming from volume. Value share gains have accelerated with particularly strong performance across hair, Skin Cleansing and deodorants, driven by a combination of strong innovation, brand rollouts into new markets and excellent execution. Turning now to Foods. Underlying sales growth in Foods continues to…

Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman

Management

Thank you, Jean-Marc. So the numbers again confirm that we're making solid progress as we transform Unilever into a sustainable growth company. Yes, confidence is growing. We continue to build consistency in the business performance and we continue to invest in the long-term health of our business, in our brands, in our products and in our people. And the challenging environment that we continue to see ahead of us, I'm sure, will ensure that we keep our feet, both of our feet actually, on the ground with no room to have this confidence become complacency. We will be sharper still in how we allocate resources and we will instill further iron discipline across our cost base and in our executions. But even though we've come a very long way, I'm not yet satisfied that our operational capability, even today, is sufficiently close to being best in class. Our performance in Tea and parts of our Food portfolio is getting better in places but not sufficiently good yet everywhere. Our service and quality levels are still not good enough in some important markets. Our inventory levels, although improving as Jean-Marc alluded to, in places are simply still too high. Our IT systems are becoming increasingly a source of competitive advantage, but we need to invest there as well to more firmly link it to our growth agenda. Our innovation and management of mix is not yet sufficiently accretive to margins. Our products are not sufficiently available yet in some of the channels like the drug or pharma channel and in e-commerce. And yes, we do hear back from our employees, despite this increased level of confidence and enthusiasm, that we're still too complex. It still takes longer than it should to get some of the key decisions implemented in the marketplace. Now each and every one of these opportunities for us is an opportunity to further accelerate our growth and to continue Unilever on this path of success. At the same time, we will stay focused on the model we now call the virtuous circle of growth, because I believe it works through good times and bad. I'm more convinced than ever that the future is in our own hands. Our priority therefore remains volume growth ahead of the markets, steady and sustainable improvement in core operating margin and the strong cash flow driven by increased capital discipline. With that, ladies and gentlemen, we will now open up the lines for questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Celine Pannuti from JPMorgan. Celine AH Pannuti - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: My first question is on your guidance of growing faster than the market. If I remember well, at the beginning of the year, you were saying that you were expecting total market growth of 4% to 5%. And as we grew ahead of the market, given what you said in the context of a weakening consumer confidence and other macro point, do you still feel confident with that 4% to 5% outlook for the market? And then my second question is on Latin America, which has been very strong in the quarter. And yet you were, as well, mentioning that the economy itself is weakening. So could you give us a bit of an understanding of what will continue to do well? Is the consumer still happy buying staples in these emerging markets?

Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman

Management

Thanks for both of the questions. The -- let me go quickly through them. In the 4% to 5% market growth, I still think we can stay ahead of the market. What you'll see over the second half is probably slightly different mix as we've said before between volume and pricing. But the growth rate should continue to be ahead of the market with the stronger and stronger innovations that we have on the new brand expansions. I don't want to compromise on that. As far as Latin America, it is challenging because we see a situation in Venezuela that certainly isn't getting easier. We see a situation in Argentina that is fairly difficult. We have a deodorant factory there, difficult to import things, export things. So it's disrupting a little bit our supply. But we're confident, despite very competitive situations in both Brazil and Mexico. Also on the competitive front, we have invested, I gave you the example of TRESemmé. We have some other wonderful innovations in these markets and not surprisingly, they are putting in double-digit return. And as you know, at the end of the day in Latin America, if you win in Brazil and Mexico, you've solved the bulk of challenge there. So I feel confident that on both of these, we will not disappoint you as we face the next 6 months of this year. Celine AH Pannuti - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: All right. But just to come back on Latin America, where the pricing component remains high, should we expect that to continue or we'll see that weakening?

Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman

Management

No, you should expect that – to see that continue, but easing off a little bit. There is obviously a carry-forward effect that you have to take into account. But contrary to what some people always thought and do we have pricing power and this and that, we actually have pricing in the quarter. Again, we have pricing over next 6 months. If you see a reais devaluing the way we've seen it in Brazil, we unfortunately have to put that into pricing. We don't see any other option. So depending on what happens moving forward, you have the carryover effects of that for sure. But it should ease a little bit on the year-to-year comparison.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Marco Gulpers from ING.

Marco Gulpers - ING Groep N.V., Research Division

Analyst · ING

This is Marco Gulpers from ING. I wonder whether you can talk a bit more on the volume growth trends. You mentioned, in developing markets, they are still negative. Could you tell us a bit more on the trends that you're witnessing in the markets quarter-on-quarter and what you expect on volumes for the second half of the year? The second question is on your excellent performance in Personal Care compared to your, let's say, more challenging performance in Refreshments. What are, let's say, your expectations for the second half of the year in Refreshments, in tea and ice cream?

Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman

Management

Yes, Marco, very quickly, our quarter-to-quarter performance is definitely better than the Dutch soccer team but we like to look at it on a 6-months basis. And what we see obviously is that the volume in the markets in total are under pressure a little bit. In the emerging market, it is because of pricing that we need to do behind the weakening currencies. Often you need to compare the currency cost in dollars, so that's often a double hit in these countries. And there's volume slow down. And in Europe, I don't have to talk you about that, that's a continuous saga. The way we compensate for that is, as you've seen in the results, our A&P is up again. Our innovations are getting stronger. We're doing these white space launches. Just take the last 6 months alone. Launches of Clear in the U.S. or Simple in the U.S., or Dove in the Philippines, or TRESemmé in Brazil and I could go on. Magnum in 2 or 3 places. These are big launches that are really starting to kick in now to help us stay ahead of that curve, so we don't need to compromise on that. If you go to the second part of your question, which is equally important on Refreshments, I think Kevin Havelock and his team have done an outstanding job in that category. As you know, Refreshments now comprises Tea and ice cream. And here again, we're starting to see the benefits of our new organizational structure by putting it together. A lot of consumer commonalities around the feel good, about the technology, the texture, the mouth feel, the flavor technology. Also the way we go to market in the outer home, it's starting to kick in for us and we're starting to see…

Marco Gulpers - ING Groep N.V., Research Division

Analyst · ING

Maybe one final question, if I may. It's regarding the cost savings delivery. You basically highlighted for the full year, you expect more or less in line with 2011. Could you help us out whether there will be some phasing in the first half versus the second half in terms of realization of those cost savings?

Raoul Jean-Marc Sidney Huet

Management

Yes, unfortunately, this is my first question, the answer is we're not going to give you that type of disclosure between first and half. The only view that we give in terms of phasing first half and second half is that of all the commodity cost inflation, it's more weighted to the first than the second half. So that's the only type of guidance that we give between the 2 halves.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Harold Thompson from Deutsche Bank.

Harold Thompson - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Just 2 or 3 questions, please. The first one is on pricing. Clearly, Paul, you said the ongoing volatility of inputs and that's just not making life too easy, but are you suggesting that maybe pricing might have to start going up given the -- or start to go up again given the ongoing movements? Or did I read you wrongly on that one? On emerging markets, if I look at your volume growth, it's clearly in absolute term picked up and if one thing, volume is the best judge of demand. Are you still saying that's largely you winning more volume share rather than better market conditions? And finally, on pensions, clearly, the deficit's gone up by EUR 0.9 billion. IAS 19 will be implemented from 2013, i.e. next year, could you maybe help us with the implications of that standard?

Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman

Management

Yes. Thanks, Harold, and all 3 questions are good ones. Let me just briefly go to the first one and Jean-Marc on the pensions and then I'd like to make one final comment in the end. On the pricing, I want to be clear, because the commodity volatility makes it a little bit unpredictable and the currency volatility makes it a little bit unpredictable. But contrary to what some of the people out there were thinking, we actually had in-quarter pricing above 1% in -- coming mainly from the D&E markets in quarter 2. For the whole year, I don't like to be as specific, but I think if you -- my best guess is that the pricing component will be 3%, 3.5% for the year, and don't pin me to this, please, but it will be 3%, 3.5% for the year with 2% coming from carryover. We haven't done the exercise, but that's about what I have in mind. So there is pricing in the year contrary to what some people think. And it shows you the strength of our brands and innovation. I give you examples just -- I came just back from a trip to the Far East with 6% to 7% price increases on Comfort in Thailand or price increases on detergents in India contrary to what some of the others in the market are doing. Price increases in South Africa, so we do have price increases there. And then Brazil, I've obviously talked about. So that's it, really, on pricing. Volume on the emerging markets, we are building share. That's absolutely true and partly driven by growing where we are, like for example in China, which is a very important market, much more developed than India. We always tend to focus on India and we've seen our results, which we just published, so nothing to complain about despite an incredible competitive pressure. But more importantly, actually, China is a much bigger market and we're growing share in all categories bar one. So that's clear share growth that is driving volume and then you add to that our new brand expansions where we are very focused and are hitting some good returns. On pension, I'll just quickly turn it to Jean-Marc.

Raoul Jean-Marc Sidney Huet

Management

Sure. Thanks for actually raising this because this is something that will impact all European companies, not U.S. companies. But you're referring to IAS 19, and this will impact Unilever in relation to the calculation of our pension costs in the net finance cost line. And in the future, as of the 1st of January, the same discount rate will be applied for assets as well as liabilities. Very briefly, couple of point, has no impact on cash, has no impact on core operating profit and the actual impact if you were to take the assumptions at the beginning of this year would be around EUR 0.01.

Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman

Management

So I want to comment -- the only comment I wanted to make on the pension, that's why I wanted to end this, it's absolutely crucial that we make the tough choices in this environment and we've adjusted pension plans in most places now to go to career averaging or DC. The benefits will only show up in 15, 20 years. But many people or many companies are postponing that because these are tough choices. And obviously, especially in Europe and in North America, if we don't do this, these economies are never going to become competitive. So here again, your company has taken the harder rights versus the easier wrongs. And the reality is if you don't do this, you'd hate to be a CEO for some of these companies, 15, 20 years from now. So take that into account as you look at valuations.

Operator

Operator

Your next question, apologies for pronunciation, is Robert Waldschmidt from Merrill Lynch.

Robert Waldschmidt - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst

I just wanted to touch base in terms of the margin developments you mentioned going for getting volume share and things in places like China. Can you just update us in terms of the margin trends, I know you've characterized it in terms of China and Russia before. And can you also explain to us over time how you intend to improve further Home Care margins. I see there's some progress in the quarter year-on-year. And then lastly, in terms of Personal Care, margins down 140 basis points in the quarter. You've called out gross margin and A&P there. I'm just wondering if there's any mix in there, if it's just phasing of cost recovery or any color you can shed there?

Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman

Management

Yes. The margin progress overall is good. Core operating margin flat. But what I like is we've been further -- we've been able to get further efficiencies in our operating model. You see again our indirects are down, has allowed us to invest in A&P, whilst our gross margin decline, which we've always flagged over the first half, is actually coming out a little bit better than we thought. Moving forward, margin progress has to come from a few things that we are doing. The first thing we're doing is obviously our innovations have to and are becoming much more margin accretive. A lot of the things that you see, also in Personal Care, it might show a margin decline in the numbers we're publishing right now, but that is actually putting significant innovations in the market that will have higher margins. But you're dealing with a lot of the launch costs right now in these innovations and that's reflected there. The second thing is continuing to work on our cost sides like we're doing now. Indirects cost savings have a tremendous opportunity still to drive our margins. As we said, we are growing in the markets like Russia and China above the company average but we also, with iron discipline, ensure that our margin progress in these markets is also above the market -- the company average. Otherwise, the investments are not responsible. And fortunately, in these markets, especially in China, we have good gross margins that allow us to do that. So I feel very confident that we increasingly see that happening. And one of the reasons our core operating margins are flat over the first half is actually that we're starting to see our mix picking up in a positive sense. So that is where it comes from. Ruthless cost focus, again, working our mix, margin accretive innovations.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Martin Deboo from Investec. Martin John Deboo - Investec Securities (UK), Research Division: Two questions, please. Can I just ask you for some more color on the laundry business? It seemed a particularly strong result to me and I think Jean-Marc said that you were growing share in Brazil and India, which is a sort of resident achievement in my view. What -- can you just give some commentary on what you're doing there and the results that you're seeing? And can I just ask you about the A&P. You increased A&P investment as a percent of sales in FY '12, but against a soft prior year comp. Does that reflect the fact that you're seeing competitors pulling back spend, you're getting value-added digital, just some commentary on the A&P movement would be helpful.

Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman

Management

Martin, the A&P is a total company comment, not laundry, I presume. Martin John Deboo - Investec Securities (UK), Research Division: Correct, yes, the A&P is a total company comment, that's right, Paul, yes.

Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman

Management

On the laundry business, obviously, we are growing share. We are growing very fast. I'm glad you picked that up. We are building share in all of the key places that we're focused on, despite competition still lowering prices and putting pressure on these markets. And the answer is really how you have to run the business. We've upgraded our Omo formulas. We've upgraded our Surf formulas. We're putting some wonderful technology out there like dye shading and other things that are proprietary and we're investing behind that. I think we have a good discipline now. All of our formulas are improving and our marketing plans are getting stronger. Our copy is better. Our brand equities are strengthening. We're doing it the way that you should be doing it and I think we've always said we're well prepared. And we -- but the one thing we don't do is let competition drive business away from us. In some of the markets, we've probably been slow sometimes to react but that's finished. And this is a business that needs as much discipline as it needs innovation and we're striking the sweet spot right now. The reason the margins go up is exactly this, despite this tough environment, we're becoming better also on the cost side to putting in these low-cost models that allow us to achieve these objectives. So I'm confident that we can continue to build share in these businesses, which are extremely important to us. On the A&P side, there's a 10-basis-points increase, despite the overall strong top line growth. So in absolute, I don't have the numbers right, EUR 300 million, thanks Jean-Marc, so in absolute, we've added another EUR 300 million to A&P. And here again, there are many skeptics out there, I think that, that should…

Operator

Operator

Okay, we have one more question for you then. And this one, apologies for the pronunciation again, Jeremy Fialko from Redburn.

Jeremy Fialko - Redburn Partners LLP, Research Division

Analyst

Jeremy Fialko at Redburn here. Really just kind of following up on one of the early questions. And as with the broader point, is how you view the emerging markets. Because clearly, it's been a pretty large kind of macroeconomic slowdown in a lot of those countries, yet your own performance has remained very, very robust. The fact is you are such a large player within your consumer goods in so many large emerging markets. But at some point, the macro slowdown will start to affect the flows of incomes and start to affect consumption. So even if you're continuing take share, your growth rates will start to fall. So really I wanted to just see how you view that dynamic and how you see the risks of a kind of more significant slowdown in your rate of growth from the emerging markets?

Paulus Gerardus Josephus Maria Polman

Management

Yes. Well, Jeremy, once more, I think there will be a slowdown but there are 2 billion more people coming and it's only in the emerging markets that these people are coming. That's a tremendous opportunity still for market development. If you would just move, let's say laundry, while I'm running a little closer to that, but if you just move people from hand wash to machine wash, you'd move these markets up 2.5x, 3x just in consumption. So the potential in these markets is enormous still and we are obviously a very small part of the overall economy. Yesterday, I was twice with a big delegation of Chinese that are here for the Olympics with the government and all you see is possibilities when you talk to those people. The reality is the macro environment is slowing down in these markets a little bit and we have to be realistic about that. I think it would put a little bit of pressure on the numbers versus what we've been able to do in the last 2 or 3 years. We should not be denying that. But I think, again, with a combination of new brand investments, continuing to build share as we're doing now, we should be able to mitigate some of that. But yes, the wind is not in our sails in these markets. I also think though that many of these markets are becoming less dependent on the rest of the world. China really is focusing on building its internal consumption and we see that happening in Brazil and some of our other key growth markets. We will be benefiting from that as well. But you should expect a slight slowdown in the volume growth in these markets, that would be really realistic. So anyway, coming to…