Earnings Labs

UGI Corporation (UGI)

Q2 2012 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 26, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the UGI and AmeriGas Partners LP Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2012 Earnings Conference Call and Live Audio Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today’s conference is being recorded. I’d now like to turn the conference to your host, Mr. Hugh Gallagher.

Hugh Gallagher

Management

Thanks, Amy and good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us. As we begin, let me remind you that our comments today will include certain forward-looking statements, which management of UGI and AmeriGas believe to be reasonable as of today’s date only. Actual results may differ significantly because of risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond management’s control. You should read our annual reports on Form 10-K for a more extensive list of factors that could affect results, but among them are adverse weather conditions; cost volatility and availability of all energy products; increased customer conservation measures; the impact of pending and future legal proceedings; domestic and international political, regulatory and economic conditions; currency exchange rate fluctuations; the timing of development of Marcellus Shale gas production; the timing and success of our commercial initiatives and investments to grow our businesses; and our ability to successfully integrate acquired businesses including Heritage Propane and the Shell acquisition, and achieve anticipated synergies. UGI and AmeriGas undertake no obligation to release revisions to their forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances occurring after today. In addition, our remarks today will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures that management believes provide useful information to investors to more effectively evaluate the year-over-year results of operations of the company. These non-GAAP financial measures are not comparable to measures used by other companies and should be considered in conjunction with performance measures such as cash flow from operating activity. With me today are John Walsh, President and COO of UGI; Jerry Sheridan, President and CEO of AmeriGas, and your host, Chairman and CEO of UGI Corporation, Lon Greenberg. Lon?

Lon Greenberg

Management

Thanks, Hugh. Let me also welcome you to our call and a special welcome to our recent retirees Bob Knauss and Margaret Calabrese. I hope you’re nice and relaxed, and don’t feel compelled to jump out of your chair during our comments. I hope you’ve all had the opportunity to read our press releases for the second quarter. UGI reported earnings per share of $1.18 compared to $1.32 last year. This year’s results include a $0.02 charge related to the extinguishment of debt compared to $0.05 last year and a $0.02 charge related to transaction costs for international and domestic LPG acquisitions. So, the $1.18 with those two added back becomes $1.22. AmeriGas reported net income attributable to AmeriGas Partners of $133.9 million compared to $118 million last year, on adjusted EBITDA of $246 million compared to $176 million last year. Now as we sit here today and preparing for the call, I remembered telling you last quarter how frustrating the first quarter was due to uniformly and unusually warmer winter weather in the first quarter. Well, on the whole weather didn’t get any better and as a result we remain frustrated with our results because of the weather. Incidentally weather records were broken in the United States for not only March of this year but also for the entire second quarter and for the last 12 months although those periods were the warmest and recorded history for the United States. In our business as you know, being a record breaker for warm winter weather is not a good thing. Thus as you might expect our results reflect that weather, yet as I’ve said many times results don’t always tell you what’s going on in a business and there are a large number of silver linings in the clouds of those weather. Our management teams did a fine job of mitigating the adverse effects of weather by controlling expenses in managing margins. We made significant progress on a number of important projects that we will discuss during this call. And that progress sets the stage for a significant rebound in earnings next year. However, before I jump ahead to next year I’d like to turn the call over to Hugh, John and Jerry to discuss this quarter’s results. So Hugh?

Hugh Gallagher

Management

Thanks, Lon. As Lon just mentioned the highlight or low light of this quarter was a lack of demand for all energy products resulting from the record warm weather encountered domestically and the volatile warm called warm weather pattern experienced in Europe during the quarter. As outlined in our earnings release giving our results to-date and our current assessment of acquisition integration efforts and business prospects for the remainder of this year we expect to report GAAP earnings per share of between $1.65 and $1.75 per share for the full fiscal year ending September 30, 2012. It is important to note that the full year guidance includes dilutive impact of about $0.15 associated with the acquisition transition costs at AmeriGas and at International Propane and the loss on extinguishment of debt at AmeriGas. Excluding these unusual items related to recent acquisitions, we would expect to report adjusted EPS in the range of $1.80 to $1.90 for the full fiscal year ended September 30, 2012. Looking at year-to-date EPS, on an adjusted basis excluding the impact of the loss on extinguishment of debt and the transition expenses that have been incurred thus far, we would be at $2.02 per diluted share versus $1.92 GAAP EPS that was reported. This means that excluding the impact of the transition cost that we expect to incur during the second half, we would incur a seasonal net loss in the $0.10 to $0.20 per share range. Now turning back to this quarter’s results for each business unit. Most notably AmeriGas completed the Heritage acquisition in mid-January but both businesses were significantly impacted by the warm weather during the quarter. Heritage contributed a 138 million gallons and a $194 million in total margin from its mid-January acquisition date through March 31. Heritage operating expenses during the…

John Walsh

President

Thanks, Hugh. Although the short term financial impact of the record setting warm weather and the quarter was substantial. Our businesses have done a solid job responding to those challenges. Our teams have executed a broad range of actions to manage costs as we responded to reduce demand from our weather sensitive segments. We’ve also taken advantage of the opportunity provided by the weather to drive critical projects and activities that are typically curtailed during the winter months. A comment on both the operational and strategic activities in the quarter since there were significant developments in both areas. Our core businesses, while managing cost effectively over the course of this challenging winter, moved forward with our growth programs and critical operational initiatives. Our Gas Utility team is converting customers to natural gas at a record pace. The natural gas versus fuel oil spread remains very wide and customers in both the residential and commercial segments are eager to take advantage of the savings while upgrading the quality of their energy solution. Through the first six months of our fiscal year, conversions and upgrades are running over 50% ahead of prior year. We’ve taken full advantage of the warm weather to continue the conversion activity throughout the winter months. Our commercial additions are running about 25% ahead of prior year with customers being added across our entire service territory. While new residential and commercial construction activity remains weak, we’ve addressed this growth challenged by our targeted conversion program. We expect to add 13,000 to 15,000 new customers at Utilities by the end of the fiscal year. Our Midstream & Marketing business continues to have good success growing our power marketing segment. We’ve ramped up our activities over the past 24 to 36 months and now serve over 8,000 commercial customers in…

Jerry Sheridan

President and CEO

Thanks John. This was the milestone quarter for AmeriGas as we closed the largest acquisition in the history of the company. Our acquisition of Heritage Propane on January 12th was a primary focus of our activities in the quarter and will remain so for the next 15 months as we execute our integration plans. Our reported EBITDA on this year’s second quarter grew by 40% versus the Legacy AmeriGas business last year. In order to provide you with insights on underlying performance my comments will include references to the separate volume performance of the legacy AmeriGas and Heritage businesses during this extraordinarily warm second quarter. First the actual EBITDA results for the quarter for the new AmeriGas were $246 million after adjusting for $13 million of debt extinguishment cost and $8 million of acquisition integration expense. The $246 million result is almost $70 million above the legacy AmeriGas performance in the prior year. It’s worth noting that the quarter included an improvement into the margin that resulted from settling the fair market value of inventory for the opening balance sheet for Heritage as of January 12. The benefit of this lower cost inventory, much of which liquidated during the quarter, was the largest contributor to an adjusted EBITDA performance that exceeded the top end of our previously issued guidance for the quarter of $235 million. As a result of this adjustment and the positive impact of the declining product cost during the quarter, units margins were stronger than normal during the quarter. Weather for the quarter nationally was 22% warmer than last year and the warmest January to March period ever recorded since record keeping began a 118 years ago. In order to better understand the impact of the weather on the business, the legacy AmeriGas volume was down 20%…

Lon Greenberg

Management

Thanks Jerry. My concluding comments are on the brief side just given that we’ve had a longer presentation than usual. We’ve given you guidance already. Hugh has done it is in the press release, Jerry has done it, and that guidance obviously reflects our view of the remainder of this year as well as our results to-date. I want to comment on the results to-date a little bit more to give you some color. We conducted an internal exercise to ascertain and quantify the effects of this record setting warm weather on us. And as you know, this isn’t an exact science to weather adjust our results. However, we believe that we would have been very comfortable in advising you today that the guidance we gave you in November of $2.35 to $2.45 a share was achievable this year with had weather been more normal. Said differently, we gave you guidance in November of $2.35 to $2.45. If we had experienced relatively normal weather we’re comfortable that we’d be at least reiterating guidance today. Said differently, the weather effect on our earnings based on our calculations, which again is not an exact science, is in the $55 million to $65 million range. However, as I said, this is a hypothetical exercise and we’ll wait till next year to demonstrate our earnings capacity in more normal winter weather environment. Yet as John and Jerry and Hugh indicated, we don’t have to wait very long to talk about our progress. The Heritage transaction integration effort as everyone has told you is progressing very well. I know there is a lot of discomfort with the domestic propane industry. However, we believe the current level of discomfort is extreme and it’s unwanted. By way of illustration in comparison to our Gas Utility volumes, the…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Carl Kirst of BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open. Carl Kirst – BMO Capital Markets: Thanks. Good afternoon, everybody, and very much appreciate all the detail, and Lon, certainly your comments at the end. And in fact, just if I can ask a clarification since we’re on the call here the original $2.35 to $2.45 guidance from last November I guess it was. Was that in and of itself an adjusted number i.e. it excluded the debt retirement and the transition cost or did that number even include that I just couldn’t remember off the top of my head.

Lon Greenberg

Management

The only thing that would have included Carl would have been the impact of transition expenses for the European acquisition. Carl Kirst – BMO Capital Markets: Just for European.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Just for... Carl Kirst – BMO Capital Markets: Okay, that was pre Heritage.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Pre heritage and pre extinguishment of debt. Carl Kirst – BMO Capital Markets: Thank you, I appreciate that. Actually a question on Heritage if I could and a lot of the numbers thrown out there so I may have missed this but just looking at the Heritage and thank you for splitting it out for this quarter. But wondering about the legacy heritage from this time last year just a sort of see what the weather impact was and I believe I caught that volumes were down 19% year-over-year just the Heritage I didn’t catch what the margin was for the decline of the margin?

Lon Greenberg

Management

I will take margin Carl and then Jerry or Paul Grady who is here or someone else can jump and if I overstate it are understate it. Margins as a whole are up year-over-year and they’re up in the Heritage business and they’re up in the AmeriGas business as well. This quarter there were two factors that affected that. One was a declining cost environment. I am going to do a guess and somebody correct me, but now Belvieu is down $0.30 during this quarter peak to trough down $0.30ish and obviously in a falling cost environment that helps as you try to maintain your margins and in particularly in a tough weather environment where earnings are somewhat pressed. Secondly, as Jerry mentioned, we’ve got some purchase accounting preliminary results in Heritage and there was an inventory adjustment that also lowered our cost of gas if you will and gets past through margin. So, that also helped the Heritage margins. We don’t have exact numbers on both but unit margins were nicely higher than last year’s unit margins and again the explanation is the falling cost environment in the inventory.

Hugh Gallagher

Management

And Carl, this is Hugh. A couple of pitfalls I just want to point everyone to avoid, if you look at Heritage’s results last year and the ETP report, that’s going to include the cylinder exchange business that we didn’t acquired, number one. So, that’s different that. And the second one is we had what 10 weeks of operations this year versus a full quarter that would have been in their report last year. Carl Kirst – BMO Capital Markets: No, thank you for the clarification, Hugh. That’s great. And then just last question if I could and this was really on the, going back to the Midstream and we’re going to have I understand a lot of moving parts and of course as projects go from execution and service, this is going to change. But as we look at either this current quarter just reported or six months to-date, can you breakout sort of the different buckets that we’re seeing right now as far as how much from gas marketing, power marketing other services? And within that partly, I just want to make sure I understand what the difference is between gas marketing and capacity management because I think here to fore I was probably thinking of those as quite frankly the same thing using gas marketing to manage your capacity?

John Walsh

President

Hey Carl, this is John, one of the things we’re planning on doing is holding an Analysts Day in the fall. I think that’s probably the best venue for us to go into a sort of a detailed review of the Midstream and Marketing business at which point we could – you’re right. It’s clearly, a completely separate activity around gas marketing and then the capacity management activities for the Midstream business. So not in a position to break it out on this call. The other thing, I would say about gas marketing is the experience we saw although the volume impact of warm weather in our gas marketing business within midstream kind of mirrored what we saw in the gas utility, very similar. Some of the service territories over lapse. So we saw that impact. Certainly margins held up but volumes were impacted by weather. But in terms of a much more detailed review of performance by segment, I think we target that Analysts Day in the early fall as the best time to do that. Carl Kirst – BMO Capital Markets: Okay.

Lon Greenberg

Management

And we will try Carl to get more color as the year goes on to. We got shot at AGA. We got a shot and we’ll webcast stuff when we do that. So one thing I’ll point out is the – oh, in addition to what John said, in the press release there is reference to year-over-year margin decreasing from gas marketing of about 6 million bucks lower capacity management margin of 6 million bucks as well. So that will give you some framework of decline that you see and that – that should be helpful to you a little bit, to try to understand year-over-year results.

Jerry Sheridan

President and CEO

And just at a high level to comment on the factors that might impact capacity management. It’s certainly impacted by volatility than in many cases caused by demands put on systems by colder weather and then subsequent disruption. So, we see some of that capacity management decline as being directly related to lower demand and less system stress throughout the mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. this year. It’s a very uneventful year in terms of volatility within the market. Carl Kirst – BMO Capital Markets: Great. I appreciate all the color, guys.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Yep.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Darren Horowitz of Raymond James. Your line is open. Darren Horowitz – Raymond James: Hey, Lon, just one question from me regarding AmeriGas. Can you give us a sense for the fiscal 2012 and fiscal 2013 adjusted EBITDA sensitivity due to propane prices because based on what you were just talking about it would seem that substantially higher than normal propane inventories are driving and will continue to drive a rather material decrease in wholesale propane prices basis Mont Belvieu. Clearly, until LPG export capacity comes online later this year, but that could potentially set the stage for some retail margin expansion certainly heading into September and October I would imagine but I would love your thoughts there?

Lon Greenberg

Management

Yeah, let me give you I mean one of the things that we see in the industry that we particularly like is what you referenced to, Darren, which is the tremendous growth domestically in natural gas liquids. It has separated domestic propane prices from crude oil’s traditional relationship and we’re probably trading at 48%, 47% somewhere 47%, 48% accrued whereas the old low in the industry was closer to 80% accrued. But you benefit most from that in a falling cost environment and if it levelizes somewhat then, I think everybody over time and the market adjust and so you return to a more normal environment, but lower prices to our customers is also are very healthy for this industry, it makes it more competitive compared to other fuels. It makes our customers happier, it provides growth opportunities that don’t exist in a higher cost environment. So yes, you’re observation is correct that falling cost like it does in all industries helps margins. Eventually that catches up to itself and margins levelize at more normal levels but the extra benefit that you didn’t mention that I would emphasize is lower prices to customers is very good for an industry. We see in the natural gas side that as natural gas prices have declined, the level of conservation that we expected in the industry doesn’t exist. And so we’re seeing improvements in volumes in natural gas both retail customers, home owners, residential as well as commercial businesses and so there’s the added benefit of better volume performances as prices get lower. Darren Horowitz – Raymond James: Thanks Lon.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Mark Barnett of Morningstar. Mark Barnett – Morningstar: Hi, there. Good evening gentlemen.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Hi Mark. Mark Barnett – Morningstar: Just a quick details question. If I heard you correctly the O&M for the quarter at legacy AmeriGas looks down about 2%. Should we assume that you’re going to be able to hit trajectory kind of through the second half of the year?

John Walsh

President

OpEx. We didn’t say 2%, we just said I was lower. But yes, certainly this is warm weather time so we got to take control and flexibility around particularly over time in our vehicle repair and maintenance and our plant repair and maintenance cost were things that we can flex and we’re going to have to. This doesn’t, wouldn’t any more near. Mark Barnett – Morningstar: Okay. And I guess maybe this is a difficult question but I’ll go ahead and ask anyway, big picture given kind of the consolidation obviously with your Heritage deal and then Suburban’s deal announced today. Could you share kind of your general thoughts on how this might impact kind of growth through acquisition model that served you so well?

Lon Greenberg

Management

Yeah, the couple of comments. One is I’ll congratulate John Sherman and Mike Dunn on the transaction. I know Mike and his team at Suburban well they are good operators and they will do a good job of blending those two businesses together. And I also know John and his team on the energy side and they are quality business and I wish them both lots of luck with it, although not as much luck as I wish ourselves, but I do wish them luck because they are two quality companies coming together. The consolidation is good for the industry as a whole. It’s good for most industries and in particularly this industry because costs need to come down. Here we need to get more efficient and scale brings the efficiency which allows us to become more competitive across the industry, and not only across the industry but with other fuels. We’ve just got to, we’ve got to get more efficient, we’ve got to modernize the industry. That having been said, the top 10 players of this industry have had about 40% of the market for a very long period of time. We’ve had the consolidation of two of those players into others, so now it might be 43% of the market or 44% of the market. So, the growth through acquisition story is intact. We completed a number of smaller transactions over the course of this year. We intend to make sure we digest what we have but we haven’t gotten out of the market itself. And so in terms of our expectations for the future we still will build in growth through roll up. continued roll up as this industry and when the largest market share player has 15% as we do there is lots of room for growth in the future. Mark Barnett – Morningstar: Thanks a lot.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Yeah.

Operator

Operator

And I’m showing no additional questions at this time sir.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Okay, thank you very much, Amy. Well we appreciate everybody’s attention to the call. Again we are committed to demonstrate the earnings capacity of this business in a more normal winter environment. I remind you this was an extreme, the reason they have records is every once in a while they’re broken. This one lasted 114, 118 years, 118 years. We trust that we won’t see it at least a longetivity of the people in this room and that will return to a more normal environment next year and you will see the earnings capacity of this business when you get anything close to more normal weather. So we look forward to making continued progress during the next quarter not a big weather quarter but we are making good progress and before look forward to report that to you sometime in July. Those of you who will see at AGA and along the way look forward to seeing you then. So thanks a lot and everybody take care.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen this does conclude today’s conference thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day. You may all disconnect.