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UGI Corporation (UGI)

Q1 2012 Earnings Call· Wed, Jan 25, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the UGI and AmeriGas First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today’s conference, Hugh Gallagher, Treasurer of UGI.

Hugh Gallagher

Management

Thank you, and good afternoon and thank you for joining us. As we begin, let me remind you that our comments today will include certain forward-looking statements, which management of UGI and AmeriGas believe to be reasonable as of today’s date only. Actual results may differ significantly because of risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond management’s control. You should read our annual reports on Form 10-K for a more extensive list of factors that could affect results, but among them are: adverse weather conditions; cost volatility and availability of all energy products; increased customer conservation measures; the impact of pending and future legal proceedings; domestic and international political, regulatory and economic conditions; currency exchange rate fluctuations; the timing of development of Marcellus Shale gas production; the timing and success of our commercial initiatives and investments to grow our businesses; and our ability to successfully integrate acquired businesses including Heritage Propane and achieve anticipated synergies. UGI and AmeriGas undertake no obligation to release revisions to their forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances occurring after today. In addition, our remarks today will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures that management believes provide useful information to investors to more effectively evaluate the year-over-year results of operations of the companies. These non-GAAP financial measures are not comparable to measures used by other companies and should be considered in conjunction with performance measures such as cash flow from operating activities. With me today are John Walsh, President and COO of UGI Corporation; Gene Bissell, President and CEO of AmeriGas, and your host, Chairman and CEO of UGI Corporation, Lon Greenberg. Lon?

Lon Greenberg

Management

Thanks, Hugh. Let me also welcome everybody to our call. I’m sure you’ve had the opportunity to review our press releases reporting our first quarter results. As you know, we reported earnings per share of $0.77 versus $1.01 last year. AmeriGas reported net income attributable to AmeriGas Partners of $42.5 million compared to $74.9 million last year on EBITDA of $83.7 million compared to $113 million last year. I must say that this has been one of the more frustrating quarters I’ve encountered during my many years as UGI’s CEO. Surely we have encountered periods of warm weather in the past as many of you know, but I must say they’ve never been as uniformly extraordinary as this. For example, weather in our French liquid petroleum gas operation was nearly 30% warmer than the prior year. Weather in our utility operations was nearly 19% warmer than the prior year. Weather in our domestic propane operation AmeriGas was nearly 10% warmer than the prior year. So, whether you were in Philadelphia, Paris, Vienna, Chicago, Atlanta, you experienced very little winter weather this year and that lack of winter weather also adversely affected our Midstream & Marketing business, which, as you know, not only sells gas and electricity on a non-regulated basis, but it also owns and manages assets, which prosper when cold temperatures create volatility in commodity markets. However, as is often the case, there are occasions when headline earnings numbers mask important positive trends and developments and this certainly is one of those cases. You’ll note that our margins in our domestic and International Propane businesses were managed quite effectively despite a high cost environment. While it’s less visible to you, we note in our release that our customer growth in our Gas Utility businesses was robust due to record…

Hugh Gallagher

Management

Okay. Thanks, Lon. As Lon mentioned in his remarks, the overarching theme for this quarter was a lack of demand for all energy products resulting from the extraordinarily warm weather we encountered in each of our business units. There are two themes that we often repeat when discussing our business with investors. First is if you watched the weather during the heating season and you evaluate historical trends in our business units, you will have a sense of how our businesses will perform given variations in weather and second, that we believe in diversification as a means of reducing risk and that geographic diversification reduces weather-related risk. For the first quarter of fiscal 2012, this first statement clearly held true, but, unfortunately, geographic diversification did not do its job and we experienced weather that was incredibly warm everywhere we operated. AmeriGas experienced the warmest first quarter weather in the last 10 years. Weather for the quarter was approximately 12% warmer than normal, 10% warmer than last year. During the critical heating season – heating month of December, weather was 16% warmer this year than it was last year. As a result, volumes sold declined nearly 14% year-over-year, the primary contributor to the $8.5 million decrease in net income contribution from AmeriGas. Operating expenses increased modestly at AmeriGas due to the $3.7 million in cost incurred during the quarter related to the Heritage acquisition. International Propane’s contribution to net income also decreased due to significantly warmer weather in our legacy businesses at Antargaz and Flaga. In France, weather was 30% warmer than last year resulting in a 20% decline in volumes year-over-year. Flaga’s weather was about 12% warmer than normal resulting in 11% decrease in volumes sold. It’s important to note, however, that this weather related volume decrease was offset by…

John Walsh

President

Thanks, Hugh. While the unprecedented warm weather in each of our businesses had a significant impact on our financial performance in the quarter, we remain focused on driving progress on the critical strategic initiatives that will determine the future of the company. On the operational side, our teams took the necessary steps to manage cost as we responded to reduced demand from our weather sensitive segments. I’ll comment on both the operational and strategic activities in the quarter since there were significant developments in both areas. Our core businesses, in addition to responding to the warm weather challenge, continue to press forward with their growth plans and key operational initiatives. Our Gas Utility built on the growth momentum for conversions established over the past few years. The natural gas versus fuel oil spread remains wide and our marketing team has done an exceptional job reaching potential customers situated very close to our mains. We achieved a record level of conversions and upgrades in Q1, which ran 50% above the same quarter last year. This more than offset the continued weakness in new home developments. Our commercial segment also remains strong with customer additions running about 20% above prior year. Our Midstream & Marketing business, in addition to pursing new projects, has been very active utilizing our existing assets in the Marcellus region. We added compression on the Auburn Gathering System that was activated late last year and initiated several projects to enhance the utility of our gas storage field. While there has been considerable near term uncertainty in the natural gas market due to low commodity cost and dampened volatility, we still see major opportunities for growth across this business. There are segments of our business such as power generation and asset management that have been negatively impacted in the…

Eugene Bissell

Management

Thanks, John. EBITDA for the first quarter was down significantly due to weather that was about 10% warmer than last year and about 12% warmer than normal. Of course most of the degree days during the quarter occur in December and December was 16% warmer than last year. This was the warmest weather we’ve experienced in the first quarter since the October to December quarter in 2001. And when the weather is this warm, the degree day comparison understates the impact because many of our customers simply don’t have to use their heaters at all. Now fortunately this type of significantly warmer than normal weather only occurs very sporadically, the last time being nearly six years ago when our volume for the second quarter of 2006 dropped about 10% year-over-year on weather that was about 7% warmer than the prior year. As a result of last quarter’s warm weather, our volume was down nearly 14% from last year. The only benefit of the warm weather is that lower demand is beginning to result in lower wholesale propane prices. Now for the quarter the average price at Mont Belvieu averaged $1.44 or about 14% higher than last year. Since we entered January, however, propane prices have been falling. The current price at Mont Belvieu is $1.27, down 12% from last quarter and down from $1.35 last year at this time. These lower prices will bring welcome relief to our customers. Expenses for the quarter were flat to last year, excluding about $3.7 million in expenses related to the Heritage acquisition and our vehicle fuel expense increased due to higher diesel and gasoline prices, but that was offset by lower salary and overtime expense. We can’t control the weather, but we do have a good track record of responding to lower than…

Lon Greenberg

Management

Thank you, Gene. Let me leave all of you with the following thoughts. As we note in our release, we’ll be updating guidance next quarter when we will have experienced the remainder of the winter weather and we can give you better information regarding our expectations for the level of integration costs we’ll incur this year related to the Heritage and Shell transactions. In this regard, Hugh mentioned that we had some relatively modest transition costs in this past quarter. There is nothing nefarious in our not giving you an update on guidance at this point – seeing that weather has a major effect on our business we’re in the middle of the winter. And so it doesn’t make sense to us to try predict what will happen over the course of the next three months worth of weather as we move forward. And we’ve just closed the acquisition of Heritage and that closed somewhat sooner than we expected and so we’ll have an opportunity to get a better feel for the integration costs we’ll be able to put into this year as we move forward throughout the year. As I’m sure all of you are aware, winter weather during January has continued to be warmer than last year and normal, but hope lives on and we’re looking forward to a colder February and March and for that matter April as the year goes on. I also want to remind you that we previously indicated that integration costs to be incurred this year for the Heritage and Shell transactions will be significant. At the same time these transactions will contribute in a significant way next year to improve year-over-year performance. To reiterate what we’ve said earlier, we are focusing on those things we can control, capitalizing on internally generated and…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from Carl Kirst with Bank of Montreal. Carl Kirst – Bank of Montreal: Everybody.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Hi, Carl. Carl Kirst – Bank of Montreal: You know just to I mean certainly weather is weather and that is a tough quarter and no one is going to expect any kind of prediction sort of on a go-forward basis. So maybe we can kind of leave that to the side, but is it primarily that as far as giving – wanting to wait on giving guidance for the remainder of the year is that just you feel it’s too pretty mature to give expectations for integration costs? I just want to get a better sense of that because I think most people are probably putting weather into a box at least I hope they are.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Yes, let me – as I said there is really no hidden motives in our not giving guidance. We have said, when we did the Heritage call, that we expected integration costs on the Heritage transaction to approximate $70 million over 18 months. We closed that acquisition earlier than we thought we would through some excellent effort across the board on both sides of that transaction and so we’re trying to re-calibrate the transaction costs and the integration costs we’ll incur and we will, Carl, make an effort to break those out so that people can see what those are and get a handle on what the business is doing independent of those costs as best we can do that. And then same goes for the Shell Acquisitions. We’ll try to break those out, Hugh mentioned there was about $3.6 million I think this year versus a modest amount last year integration costs in the European acquisitions and we’ll continue to try to break those out, so people get a feel for that. But I will tell you in all the years I’ve been doing this only once did we give guidance at the end of the first quarter, an update to guidance in the first quarter. And we did it because the environment was such that the weather was so cold and beneficial through January and margins were exploding in a way that we felt leaving people with the information they had at that time wouldn’t be the right course of action. Here you said people put the weather in a box, January has not been particularly good, it’s been somewhat better than December, for example, but it’s not been particularly good. And it’s just impossible for us given the nature of our businesses and the things that we…

Lon Greenberg

Management

You are correct on the wholesale side, Shell did what they referred to as unbranded volume. That doesn’t have a lot – I mean there are some of our competitors who spend time talking about it. But the margins on that – while it’s nice and it does have other supply benefits for us – the margins aren’t enough, Carl, that we would have your focus on that, I mean we’re happy to provide it, but I would tell you that wouldn’t be a big area of focus for us, it’s certainly not an area of focus internally. With regard to the acquisition, the Shell Acquisition, I can tell you it probably contributed this quarter upwards of a couple of pennies during the quarter and that includes a fair amount of integration cost that we had to offset that as well. It’s – if I were to give us a qualitative view, the process we’ve gone through since we’ve acquired it has gone well, integration is proceeding as well or even perhaps a little better than we expected. The earnings capacity of those businesses has somewhat – we’ve gone through with each of the managements of those units a thorough kind of what I’ll call budgeting kind of process although it’s not technically a budget. And the earnings capacity of those businesses we acquired is somewhat better than we built into our acquisition models as well. So, qualitatively, those are moving ahead very nicely. There was a modest contribution this quarter from those businesses and we’ll take your comments into consideration as we try to sort of provide some valuable information to you as we go forward this year. Carl Kirst – Bank of Montreal: No, I appreciate that. And then maybe again one other micro on the Shell just because it was noted that I guess it comprised $48 million of the entire amount. I didn’t know just given the weather difference if you had sort of the same store sales from last year so we can get a better understanding of what maybe a weather normalized look like in total?

Lon Greenberg

Management

Yes, that’s a hard one to do. I can tell you directionally Antargaz’s volumes were off 15% to 20%-ish year-over-year, isn’t that right?

John Walsh

President

No it’s 30%.

Lon Greenberg

Management

The volume or weather?

John Walsh

President

Oh, I’m sorry the volume was 20%.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Volume was off close to 20% at Antargaz and that’s a sort of the same store number, if you will, on 30% warmer weather. That’s – what we try to do, Carl, was give you the legacy businesses, kind of on that same-store sales basis. So, the Antargaz number, the 20% is Antargaz as it was configured last year and the Flaga number is also their legacy business the 11% volume decrease. We don’t have as much detailed information for the Shell Acquisition and I don’t know that there is weather sensitivity either I those businesses.

John Walsh

President

Yes, they’re commercial business.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Yes.

John Walsh

President

Less slightly less – somewhat less weather sensitive.

Lon Greenberg

Management

I want to emphasize, Carl, that John alluded to it and talked about it in his remarks as did Hugh. I know there is a lot of consternation generally in the U.S. every day we pick up the newspaper, we hear about economies in Europe. I would tell you that we aren’t seeing significant impacts from the economies of France or Austria or most of the countries we’re in, Switzerland, et cetera, the UK even, we’re not seeing that trickle into what as you described as purchasing a necessity to heat your houses when it’s cold enough to do so and for the small commercial businesses that use it that serve internal markets. We’re just not seeing significant effects in all the things we’re looking at in those businesses. So, the weather truly was the dominating factor that affected their results. I will point out expenses were managed pretty well over there and margins were managed very well over there. Last year, we had nice weather and a little bit more difficulty with margins this year, our folks did a very good job of staying on top of their margins and making sure that we were positioned properly had volumes showed up. Carl Kirst – Bank of Montreal: Great, I very much appreciate the color and I’ll jump back in the queue. Thank you.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Yes.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Darren Horowitz with Raymond James. Darren Horowitz – Raymond James: Congratulations, Gene, we wish you the best and look forward to working with Jerry and Paul going forward. I just have one question, in thinking about wholesale propane cost from a structural perspective and obviously this pertains to AmeriGas, but when you consider higher crude prices, low natural gas prices and the increased bid that propane is getting from pet-chem consumers and also for LPG export, are you concerned that on a relative basis higher wholesale propane cost continue and possibly continue to pressure retail margins?

Eugene Bissell

Management

Well, thanks for your comments. First of all, I appreciate that. I would say we’re seeing propane relative to the price of crude lower than it’s been recently. So, we’ve been running more in the 55% range where in the past it’s been up to 65%, 70%. So, the relative price of propane is reflecting I think the low level of demand for propane. I don’t think we’re going to see a big impact in terms of volume performance based on where our prices are relative to other commodities. I would love to see propane come down relative to electric prices so we were more competitive there and that certainly has been more of an issue than it was in the past. But we aren’t seeing any big impact from that. Darren Horowitz – Raymond James: Hey, Gene, do you think that if propane price relative to crude remain cheap and propane as it relates to ethylene production continues to generate a pretty high double-digit margin in terms of cents per pound of ethylene produced, don’t you think that’s going to increase the bid for propane and the intrinsic value of propane is going to be worth more to a petrochemical consumer?

John Walsh

President

Yes, I think – it’s John – I think that’s more margin obviously some potential marginal increased demand, but I think the other factor certainly from our perspective that’s significant is as we see activity in Marcellus and the other liquid rich shale plays ramping up certainly there is an opportunity for us and an opportunity for the industry to benefit from that additional liquid coming to market and we see that happening in the Western elements of the Marcellus. There is opportunities for us to work with producers and find a home for that propane that’s coming off that natural gas production. So, we see a significant potential and likely expansion of supply of propane from natural gas streams over the next decade, which we think is going to be positive and positive for us means dampening and lowering the price of the commodity, and in particular it’s going to be – significant amount of that’s going to be in the Northeast U.S., which is fantastic from a propane supply standpoint.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Yes, Darren, we have a little bit of insight into the chemical side of it with some of our Directors and it’s clear and you saw Shell is looking at putting some chemical plants – the chemical industry coming back to the U.S.. – there is a lot of discussion about that and using the liquids, but I dare say they wouldn’t be coming here if they thought the liquids would be more expensive here than it would be elsewhere. And I think we’re aligned with most of those chemical companies in viewing that the supply of liquids is going to exceed the demand nicely and that you will likely see a separation of – a continued separation, as Gene alluded to, of propane to crude oil and approaching more natural gas pricing, trying to get all the way there, but at 50% of crude it’s come a long way from the 80% and 90%, it used to trade at. And hence our base case, frankly, is that supply will outstrip demand and you’ll see propane prices more dropping relative closer to natural gas prices. And even in announcements like Chesapeake making that they’re slow in their natural gas drilling. They are slowing their dry natural gas drilling and focusing on the liquid rich areas that so many people have demand for. So, I think there is a lot of folks who are aligning around it. Yes, there is going to be more demand without question as you point out and propane will have an important role in the chemicals side. But given the prognostications of the amount of supply coming on we think net-net that we’re aligned with the chemicals and we see a lower environment here. Darren Horowitz – Raymond James: Thanks, Lon, I appreciate the color.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ron Londe with Wells Fargo. Ronald Londe – Wells Fargo: Yes, just talk a little bit about that subject again, you know it appears that we’re going to leave – we’re going to depart the winter of 2012 with an above average level of propane in inventory. Do you think that’s going to create opportunities for you to enhance margins in the fall of next year and what do you think about that scenario?

Lon Greenberg

Management

It’s a hard question, Ron. Why don’t I give Gene a stab at it...

Eugene Bissell

Management

My experience has been that no matter where you end up at the end of the season, by the time you get to the fall things have righted themselves in terms of inventory. So, I don’t know that at this point I could predict that we’re going to have a lot of excess inventory going into the fall. We’ll probably be in better shape than we were this year. If you remember, we went into the winter this year with about 5% less inventory than the prior year and the five-year average. So, next year perhaps going in at the average, but that’s pretty far ahead to predict inventory values.

Lon Greenberg

Management

And I don’t think we are looking – I agree 100% with Gene, we have a saying around here, everybody panics at the beginning of the year there is not enough inventory and then you get to – in typical years, you get the January, February where we’re going to run out. And there is always enough we never run out and then everybody worries about the bill that somehow it shows up in Mont Belvieu. I think they must have some – another layer below it that they suck it up because it always ends up showing up. We’re not looking for a margin collapse and we’re not looking for a margin, substantial margin expansion. The best thing that could happen to this industry, Ron, is cost coming down and everyone trying to pass that relief onto their customers to – in this economy to lower the price, make this fuel more competitive with other fuels, as Gene alluded to, electricity and others, and right the industry in terms of growth opportunities for the long term as opposed to trying to capitalize on something that would last a few months or so and not have a real benefit to the industry longer term. Ronald Londe – Wells Fargo: Our expectations would have been that operating expenses might have been a bit lower given the weather in the December and we’ve experienced some fairly warm weather in January. What’s your view about controlling operating expense going into the second quarter?

Eugene Bissell

Management

We certainly have a big focus on that going forward, we’ve put together recovery plans. The challenge in propane business is the fact that you had a warm December doesn’t mean you’ll have a warm January or warm February. So, you can’t – there is limit to how much you can cut back on the expense short term. As you start to see the shape of the winter knowing you are coming out of the winter, there is a better opportunity to cut the expense for the balance of the year. So, for example, we have a lot of seasonals that we employ. When you see a December like this, of course, you pull back on the number of hours you give them, but you can’t really release them because you don’t know if you’re going to get a blast of winter in February where you’ll need them. So, I think you’ll see more of the impact of expense reduction when you look at the full year than you do in the first quarter.

Lon Greenberg

Management

And as Gene said, we’re not tepid about managing those expenses and you’ll see some benefit from it. But we’re also mindful of our responsibility to our customers to deliver the product should weather show up and we think, again, looking at the medium and longer term in this business the best way to lose a customer is to give him a service problem. And so you’re constantly balancing ensuring that you’ve got the capacity to serve the customers should weather come with the length of the remaining winter and how do you – and your responsibility to manage your business effectively. It’s very, very, very tough in the propane industry to do that right. Ronald Londe – Wells Fargo: Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Stephanie Guan with Bank of America. Stephanie Guan – Bank of America: Hi everyone. I just have one question for Gene. Can you possibly give us a sense of how the results were for Heritage Propane in the December quarter? Would you say it was relatively in line with AmeriGas’ results in terms of the weather impact or from a conservation standpoint?

Eugene Bissell

Management

Oh, Stephanie, thanks for the question. Really, I think you’ll get those results when Energy Transfer has their call because we don’t – those results are not part of our results and when they have their earnings call and their release you’ll see the results for them. Stephanie Guan – Bank of America: All right.

Eugene Bissell

Management

But, obviously it would have been affected by the weather just like we were, but otherwise no other comments on it. Stephanie Guan – Bank of America: Okay. And then one more follow-up. So, given the weather impact, I understand what your comments were regarding – earlier comments regarding the weather impact, but do you think you’re still committed to the 5% year-over-year distribution growth rate over the longer term?

Lon Greenberg

Management

I’ll take that because Gene may say something on his way out that he can regret. He is beginning to switch to his investor mode already and that such as a retiree will be once my pension really going out. Yes, now we, Stephanie, as you know, you have been following us, that we treat the UGI dividend and the AmeriGas dividend – distribution increase as commitments to our investors. We know our Board looks at that as a commitment to our investors, they always have. It’s their decision. It’s not our decision, but we don’t make distribution and dividend decisions on one quarter’s results. There are long-term issues for us and as Hugh said we’ve got lots of financial strength in this company, significant amounts of liquidity and unused revolver capacity and we manage our balance sheets in that some call it conservative fashion in order to be able to weather – to use a bad word – weather storms like this and come out the other end strong and able to take advantage of opportunities. So, I’m sure our Boards will be mindful of our results and will be probably as displeased as everybody is or unhappy with them, but I am equally confident that they realize our distribution and dividend decisions across the board are long-term commitments to our owners. Stephanie Guan – Bank of America: Okay. Thanks, Lon and best of luck, Gene.

Eugene Bissell

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next in line we have Jay Yannello with Skyden Capital. James Yannello – Skyden Capital: Good afternoon, Lon. Can you give us a little more flavor on your comments regarding acquisition opportunities in this challenging time, like sort of magnitude what types of deals you are seeing? Because, candidly, as usual with me, it’s the end of January, a lot of the weather period has been passed by now, and you’re still quantifying integration from past acquisitions. So, I think a little hand-holding is necessary, but I don’t know if we might be in a period where we’re still not getting guidance and all of a sudden you’re announcing another big deal. So, can you just give us a little flavor on that? Thanks.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Sure, absolutely, Jay. You know, the temperament of the management team here pretty well. We’re assertive and understand our limitations and at the same time on the other shoulder there’s a conservative group who make sure that we keep our balance sheet strong and are mindful of our human resources also. I mean exactly what I said. There are changes going on, some people, as we saw, are – because they don’t manage as conservatively as we do to keep their financial strength up, have to adjust their priorities because of short term needs. There are other companies who become less enamored with industries because they don’t fit their strategic plans and that’s constantly being evaluated. I would say certainly in our – Hugh identified in our propane business in the U.S. that in the near-term, we’re stretching our human resources with integrating a very large transaction. And so, it would be, let say, out of character for us to do something large in that environment given the uncertainty associated with what we’ve done. Other business units have more strength and are less taxed than our domestic propane businesses. So, we are – the one thing I’ve seen in all my years, Jay, is there is a constant flow of transactions and changes and views and most of the time valuations are such that you can’t do them because they’re not prudent to do. There are occasions when it’s not prudent to do when you look internally as you suggest because you got your hands full of other things you’re doing. So, we’re mindful of both of those and I would tell you that you shouldn’t lose a ton of sleep about it. On the other hand, none of you would want us to turn away a compelling value merely…

Lon Greenberg

Management

Yes, I will tell you. One, regional weather is completely different. If you look at the West Coast, for example, weather has not been so bad and demand doesn’t look so bad either. James Yannello – Skyden Capital: Yes.

Eugene Bissell

Management

Down 2%.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Down 2% in the West Coast where, again where weather is not normal, but it’s not so abnormal as to drive things. In the South East we had an experience in recent years where it warmed up just enough so that people turned off their heaters and on a sunny – I’m always mindful because we have an internal debate about this all the time and unfortunately some of the engineers in the company are no longer with us that can yell at me. But I subscribe to your view that degree days aren’t created equally that I know in my own home, for example, if I get a sunny day that is going from 60 in my house to 30, I don’t have to worry about my heat the way I do if I get five days in the row of 30 where all of a sudden it doesn’t matter how sunny it is, it’s not there. So, that volatility has hurt, regional differences have hurt, and, again, in the Southeast in places where you’re right on that cusp, sometimes the heater kicks in and sometimes it doesn’t kick in at all because you are on the cusp of the area. So, I know the engineers are probably saying and I’m speaking – a little bit of knowledge is dangerous and I’m not speaking of what I know, but I can tell this the School of Hard Knocks agrees with you that certainly the volatility in weather has also contributed to what’s happening out there. It’s just an unusual period. John?

John Walsh

President

Yes, the other comment I’d make is on the natural gas side of the house particularly for the Midstream & Marketing business. When you see periods of sustained cold or intense cold, it creates some of the volatility that in terms of market conditions that presents opportunities for that business. So, in that sense, sustained cold will create opportunities that more dispersed level of cold over longer period of warm.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Yes, again, we – all of us in this management hate giving you reasons for bad performance. It’s not an excuse. It is what it is, it’s the weather, it’s not like where a patent expired on one of our key revenue producer, it’s not like we have a product that’s become obsolete because another product has been invented. We’ve got a little bit of electricity generation. These are the days I thank my lucky stars we’re not a big electric producer, because gas prices are down and certainly for the near foreseeable future you’re going to have low gas prices and low electricity prices. So, if I’m an unregulated electric producer, I’m probably not happy, that’s a fundamental change. None of that applies to us. This is -we can see as far as the National Service Weather map and they’re more wrong than they’re right because it’s an art not a science and the fundamentals of the company are strong and we just hate having to sit here and spend a good part of the time talking about weather. James Yannello – Skyden Capital: Okay. Thank you.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Barnett with Morningstar. Mark Barnett – Morningstar Research: Hi, guys. I know this call has gone on a little bit long, well just one more quick question about adding volumes through acquisition. Just first if you have may be ballpark number of volumes that you expect from smaller deals you’ve already made? And then just again on the sort of environment, are economic pressures – obviously, your competitors and smaller competitors have been feeling the same kind of pain, have the multiples comes down or are they are still kind of in the same five, seven times region, I mean I don’t know if you have comment on that?

John Walsh

President

Sure, well. The deals that we’ve done I would say volume would be in the range of 2 million to 3 million not a huge amount of volume relatively small deals. Sometimes those are the best deals because typically you are buying business that blends right in with one of your existing operations and you’re not going to have as much competition for those kinds of deals. In terms of the multiples there hasn’t been a change. I think all of the buyers and sellers tend to value the business based on the longer term trend not just based on what we’re seeing in any particular quarter. So, we still see the multiples in the range of five to seven as we have in the past.

Lon Greenberg

Management

The more likely result that we’ve seen in the past from a situation like this is – I’ll go back to Ron Londe’s question a little bit, which is people in the small companies are no different than the large companies. Everybody likes to make money. And sometimes you count on the money coming in through volume and sometimes you have to count on it coming in through margin. And so, historically, what’s happened when volumes hasn’t show up is people get a little bit more aggressive in pricing to try to create financial results for themselves, the mom and pops I’m talking about, so they can pay their bills and they can discharge their own obligations that they have. So, historically, if I had to point you to a trend it’s usually a trend which would suggest that there would be less pressure on margins as people try to make up for the volume shortfall. But that’s historical I can’t predict the future on that. Mark Barnett – Morningstar Research: Okay. Thanks for your comments.

Operator

Operator

Next on line we have a question from Carl Kirst with Bank of Montreal. Carl Kirst – Bank of Montreal: Hey, sorry, just a quick follow up because on the Auburn 2, did I catch that you guys said that that is now basically moving to execution so that that project been green lighted?

John Walsh

President

The project is moving forward we’re in land acquisition phase and permitting phase and have a substantial portion of the capacity already committed. Carl Kirst – Bank of Montreal: Is it – so my question on that was I didn’t know is there sort of a way to ballpark kind of minimum economics on that project with just what we have contracted today?

John Walsh

President

At a very basic we tend to look at low 10%, 11% IRR – you can intuit at a 50/50 debt to equity ROE from that, but it’s a – that’s a basic guide on investment, but too early to – for us to be definitive.

Lon Greenberg

Management

And that will be a mid to late 2013 event, John?

John Walsh

President

Yes.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Mid to late 2013 event, Carl and...

John Walsh

President

We’re talking about 2014 impact. Carl Kirst – Bank of Montreal: Sure, sure. And then, one other question, if I could, just with respect to in the Midstream & Marketing, natural gas marketing not a surprise, it has some pressure given weather and prices. Can you actually – can you tell us what the delta of that was or what the actual margin contribution was from natural gas marketing, just trying to kind of get a sense of – from magnitude just what the swing was?

Lon Greenberg

Management

I don’t think we have that. I would tell you, Carl, it’s in the – I’m doing this from memories, but it’s not in the tens of millions of dollars, it’s in the millions of dollars kind of range on it.

John Walsh

President

Right.

Lon Greenberg

Management

And I’m just remembering operating reports and things. So, it’s there and there are several factors in that business, which militate against volume declines because remember our model largely not a 100%, but our model largely is customers have take-or-pay obligations and they don’t commit for all of their gas, they commit for a substantial portion and if they don’t use that substantial portion, we liquidate the gas on their behalf in the market place, we are not financially exposed. So, we have a built-in mechanism to deal with that, but...

John Walsh

President

And it’s basically volume not margin that’s driving that delta. I mean it’s reflecting the warmer weather and reduced demand from customers. Unit margins have always been strong in that business and have held up. So, we’re not seeing a unit margin issue, we’re seeing a demand issue as that customer base is focused in the mid-Atlantic region, up north and south from the State of Pennsylvania across eight states and the weather has been poor. So, demand has been weak, but margins have held up well. Carl Kirst – Bank of Montreal: Great, now I appreciate all the color. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from John Hansell with Presidus. John Hansell – Presidus: Good evening. Just a quick item on – I didn’t see much on the generating units just if there is any particular update you might have on the new one in the coal plant in terms of how things are going?

John Walsh

President

Yes, we brought the Hunlock – Hunlock has the two turbines – it’s a combined cycle plant. So, the one turbine came up late last year and was running this quarter and the second unit in terms of bringing that plant up to full capacity will come on in the late spring, so that’s proceeding. There is significant amount of repair work underway to modules within that second unit. But that work is underway and we expect to be in place for the summer season, which will be helpful. John Hansell – Presidus: Thanks and what about the coal unit, how are things going there in terms of some of the things that we’ve seen in the...

John Walsh

President

In Conemaugh, well Conemaugh is – our ownership in Conemaugh and that unit is kind of reflecting what’s going on in the market, in general. That was offline for a couple of months and – a couple of weeks in December, no surprise really in terms of operations, it’s just exposed to some of the extreme downward movements in terms of power pricing.

Lon Greenberg

Management

As I said we’re not a power – we’ve got, obviously, some generation and it rounds out our portfolio and it gives us a lot of information that helps our other businesses as well, but this is a tough time to be an electric producer. With natural gas pricing coming down you are seeing efficient coal plants and PJM cycling as much as they’ve ever cycled before. In periods of low demand, you don’t have the weather. So, the demand is low and as a result of that you are seeing some of the bigger coal plants cycling and pricing is tight, it’s all based on natural gas pricing. And so it’s a tough time to be electric generator. Again, fortunately for us, it’s a nice part of what we have, but it is not a material element either up or down for us typically year-over-year. John Hansell – Presidus: Okay, thanks very much. Just one more in terms of CapEx, I know you’re finishing up a couple of things there as well, are we pretty well set on permanent financing now, I know you mentioned you know all the liquidity and all the debt and all those kinds of things, are we pretty well set?

Lon Greenberg

Management

Yes, we are. John Hansell – Presidus: Okay, good, thanks.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Yes.

Operator

Operator

And next in line we’ve Steven Karpel of Credit Suisse. Steven Karpel – Credit Suisse: Good evening, guys.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Hi, Steve. Steven Karpel – Credit Suisse: You made somewhat qualitative comments or maybe I’ll push a little bit more on this, if you looked, you talked about some users don’t use heater at all when the weather is like this. If you look into the quarter now and as we move into the second portion of the heating season, some users say, well don’t fill me up basically because I am now so close to the end of the season, it’s been warm. So, if you think about degree days, have degree days become less of a predicator in the second quarter now of the heating season here?

Lon Greenberg

Management

As we approach the end of February early March that would be the case, but, again, what happens in an environment like this as you may know, we had something like, in our AmeriGas business, about 18% fewer deliveries...

Eugene Bissell

Management

Yes, right.

Lon Greenberg

Management

...than we had the prior year, for example. And so – in the old days what you would see is you would see everybody – your delivery has not dropped so much and everybody would just take smaller deliveries, but we’re seeing truly 18% fewer deliveries in December. As a result, I would guess that stock in tank is lower than it might otherwise be because they haven’t taken their deliveries, they haven’t received their deliveries. And so even we might get, strangely enough, we might get a pop in volumes should any cold weather come, because they won’t have the opportunity to defer that they would normally have if you had a normal delivery cycle. That’s speculation on my part, but your point’s well taken, if you see February sort of easing in and a March, early March forecast that suggests warmth then people will be calling us not in great numbers but enough people call you and tell you please don’t deliver, I’ll defer it until next year. Steven Karpel – Credit Suisse: In this time of the year, what’s the typical lead, may be lead time is the appropriate term because I suppose it becomes a little – maybe it’s stretched or condensed versus maybe other times of the year. So, my sense – I guess I’m trying to understand if your – what is your viewpoint on the next few weeks? I would think you have some semblance of an idea just, does it look better or worse than you would otherwise expect year over year or some idea like that?

Lon Greenberg

Management

Yes, it’s hard to predict from week to week. I would tell you that our collective experience has been if it turns cold, it takes a week for the volume to somehow hit us because of the way the systems work. You’re basing consumption on a model, which predicts consumption per unit. So, it’s all degree day based than usage based. So, typically cold hits takes a week before you see the volume and then the volume will continue a little bit past the cold as well. And so certainly the weather forecast I saw for the next six to 10 days is not, my favorite color is blue and not because my eyes are blue, but because that means cold and I see more red than blue and red is warm than cold. But, again, these things change. The weather forecasts are erratic at best in their ability to predict what really happens. So, hang in there with us. We’re in the same boat you are in trying to predict what will happen volume wise, but I think in terms of efficiencies of how we run the business, 18% fewer deliveries in December than we had the prior year. Steven Karpel – Credit Suisse: And you mentioned about M&A. I know it’s only one season, but, obviously, if you’re struggling with the warmth or may be not struggling is the right word, but it seeing the impact of the weather, certainly some of smaller operators are as well, how does that impact the M&A market and especially given the price of propane I don’t want to call it a working capital issue, but how does this impact some of your M&A activity in terms of your ability to go out and (inaudible) some of the smaller players?

John Walsh

President

You know, typically in the times when this has happened in the past it hasn’t had as much impact as you’d expect. Most of these guys don’t have a lot of debt. They’ve been in business for a while, but the ones that you really want, the established ones, and it doesn’t really change the – their desire to sell the business. In fact sometimes if you have a really bad year then they want to wait till they have a good year sell on, but I don’t expect this to significantly increase the number of people who want to sell their business.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Yes. A number of our competitors don’t have – who are in the acquisition market side competitors – don’t have the financial strength that we do and sometimes it affects their appetite to do transactions because they are a little bit more stressed than we are. But we’re mindful of the fact that we may not be stressed from a capital resource standpoint, but we’re certainly occupied from a human resource standpoint, so we’re going to be very selective and prudent in doing stuff. Steven Karpel – Credit Suisse: And then two last ones and really separate for the last. I know you were a bit hesitant to provide guidance today, but when is your – I didn’t hear if you said when you would update your guidance and I know you’ve done later in the season, historically, so when does that been historically. And then separately, I didn’t quite hear that the revolver numbers are debt numbers that you’d have given, so if you could just repeat those?

Lon Greenberg

Management

Okay, I will do the first half and let Hugh do the second. We’ll do it on the April call after the March quarter, we’ll update, and we are going to be working, as I said, in response to a number of comments we’ve had over time to try to delineate more clearly the earnings of our – what we call our base business before the internal capital projects and before the acquisitions and then do a better job than we’ve done, although we’ve tried to layer in the earnings opportunity, the incremental earnings that come from all the investments we’ve made both internally and by acquisition and create a roadmap for folks to better understand. And we’ll do that as well, hopefully, over the next three to six months. But, certainly, guidance will be updated at the April call at the latest when we announce our second quarter earnings. And then, Hugh, on numbers...

Hugh Gallagher

Management

And, Steve, I’m just going to focus on the AmeriGas revolver. At December 31, they had $226 million drawn on the revolver and $59 million of cash. The following business day we paid down $47 million, so kind of a normal what you would expect would be $179 million and $12 million of cash. Steven Karpel – Credit Suisse: And directionally is that similar to – I know it’s only through...?

Hugh Gallagher

Management

That would be similar to last, that would be similar to last year. Steven Karpel – Credit Suisse: Is it similar to where we are today, no (inaudible) changes today?

Hugh Gallagher

Management

It’s probably lower than that today. Steven Karpel – Credit Suisse: Okay. Perfect, great. Thank you, gentlemen.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Sure.

Operator

Operator

And that’s all the time we have for questions today. I’d like to turn over to our speakers for any closing remarks.

Lon Greenberg

Management

Okay, again, you could tell two things from this call. We have a great deal of comfort with our future, our earnings capacity in a normal environment, the things we’re doing, our ability to execute. But you could also tell we have a great deal of discomfort trying to explain why we didn’t meet our commitment to you. And that’s not something we’ve had a lot to practice at, but we’ll and I won’t tell you that we’re going to try to get better at it. We’re going to try to get better at making sure under most circumstances we can do what we can to keep our commitments to you. I also want to note Gene, as he said, is leaving. Gene’s had a tremendous impact on this organization as our CEO of AmeriGas and, more broadly, as one of the leaders of UGI and he’ll be surely missed as he goes out and many of us are jealous of his doing all the exciting things he is going to do in the future. So, I want to thank him for everybody, all the employees of this company thank Gene for his service as well.

Eugene Bissell

Management

Thank you, Lon.

Lon Greenberg

Management

So, that’s it from us and we look forward to going into February with blue on the screen and cold weather. But the one thing you can count on us, we’ll keep executing our projects, we’ll keep doing the right things for the company, for the long-term and that you can count on us to produce value for you in the long run. So, thank you very much for listening for as long as you have and we’ll talk to you soon.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today’s conference. This concludes the program. You may all disconnect. Have another great day.