Earnings Labs

UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI)

Q1 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 17, 2014

$95.40

-0.61%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.00%

1 Week

-3.06%

1 Month

-11.83%

vs S&P

-12.45%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the First Quarter 2014 Universal Forest Products Incorporated Earnings Conference Call. My name is Janita, and I will be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Lynn Afendoulis, Director of Corporate Communications. Please proceed.

Lynn Afendoulis

Analyst

Thank you, and welcome to the Universal Forest Products First Quarter 2014 Conference Call. Hosting the call today are CEO, Matt Missad; and CFO, Mike Cole. Matt and Mike will offer prepared remarks, then we'll open up the call for questions. This conference call is available simultaneously and in its entirety to all interested investors and news media through a webcast at www.ufpi.com. A replay will also be available at that website through May 17, 2014. Before I turn the call over to Matt Missad, let me remind you that yesterday's press release and today's presentations made by our executives include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors identified in the press release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Matt Missad.

Matthew Missad

Analyst

Thank you, Lynn. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to our first quarter 2014 earnings conference call. I was very excited to look out the window this morning and see a green grass instead of snow, perhaps spring has arrived in Michigan. As you know, the first quarter of the year is very unpredictable for us and others in our business. This year was no exception. But I'm proud to note that we delivered the best first quarter since 2006, with earnings per share of $0.36. And we accomplished that in spite of dealing with the equivalent of approximately 80 plant closure days, thanks to a winter that's been like a houseguest who has overstayed his welcome. During the long winter, our people bundled up, worked hard and delivered very good results under the circumstances. They were like [indiscernible] snowball, rolling through the snow, giving bigger and faster and gaining momentum. They are as motivated as ever having felt improved success in 2013, and working hard to achieve even better results in 2014. I believe we are on the right track as we'll discuss as we walk through our 4 key business metrics: sales, margin, inventory and accounts receivable. In our first quarter and year-to-date, sales dollars were up 0.3%. Sales activity was good, and our facilities are reporting strong order interest. However, due to excessive plant shutdowns based on weather and the inability of many projects to get started, sales fell short of our goal. When we factor in the negative impact of the lumber market, we still see positive unit growth in spite of the weather. For the first quarter, the lumber market was 5% lower year-over-year, and actually, today is approximately 20% below the same time in 2013. We are optimistic that we will recover most…

Michael Cole

Analyst

Thanks, Matt. Before I review the financials, I should briefly address the impact of the lumber market this quarter. Year-over-year, lumber prices were down about 5% on average. The lower level of lumber prices impacted not only our sales, but our working capital, cash flow and ratios like margins. Starting with our income statement for the quarter. Our overall sales remained flat due to a 3% increase in unit sales, offset by a 3% decline in our prices. By market, our sales in the retail market declined 2% due to lumber prices. Within this market, sales to our big-box customers increased 7%, while sales to other retail customers declined 11%, which we believe was primarily weather related. Sales from the industrial market increased 7%, comprised of a 10% increase in unit sales, offset by a 3% decline in prices. We were very pleased with our unit sales growth this quarter, which reflects adding over 200 new customers and an increase in purchases of existing customers at 7%. Overall, sales to the construction market decreased 3%, comprised of a 3% decline in selling prices and flat unit sales. Within the construction market, our sales to manufactured housing customers decreased 7% due to an 8% decline in selling prices, offset by a 1% increase in units. By comparison, HUD-code home production increased about 4% during the quarter. Our unit sales growth trailed the market, primarily due to a vertical integration strategy recently employed by one of our customers. Finally, our sales to residential construction customers this quarter decreased by 2%. This -- the 2% decline was comprised of a 6% decline in units, offset by a 4% increase in prices. By comparison, national housing starts for the quarter increased about 2% year-over-year. Our unit sales change trailed the market as a result…

Matthew Missad

Analyst

Thank you, Mike. We'd now like to welcome any questions that you may have.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Jay McCanless with Sterne Agee.

James McCanless

Analyst

I wanted to ask you, first, the framing operation that you referenced in the press release, would you be willing to let us know what percentage of, maybe, construction revenues that was in the first quarter? And in terms of the higher gross profitability, is that something we should expect to the rest of the year and with the revenue level on that be similar to what you saw in 1Q?

Matthew Missad

Analyst

Yes. I think, Jay, if you look at it, it was an improvement versus last year. Last year, we suffered in that operation. And this year, it was a much better performance. So we would expect that it would be consistent going forward in terms of the performance. In terms of the percentage of the total revenues, I really couldn't give you that. I don't have that information.

Michael Cole

Analyst

Yes, maybe another way to slice that, Jay, would -- if I look at the component plants, our components plants increased their sales by about 8%. So I think I had mentioned earlier that residence -- overall residential construction decreased by 2%. And that there is -- that was comprised of a 6% decline in units and a 4% increase in prices. If I set aside framing, component plants were up 8%, 4% was prices, and they had a 4% unit increase. So that gives you a sense of how much the framing was actually.

James McCanless

Analyst

Absolutely. Okay, great. That's very good color. The second question I had is, can you give us a little insight into the supply/demand picture into the framing lumber market? And what you guys are expecting in terms of sequential improvement or year-over-year improvement or decline in terms of lumber prices through the balance of the year?

Matthew Missad

Analyst

I wish I had a good crystal ball for that one, Jay. I think what we're seeing right now, we've had a steady drop since about week 10 in the lumber market. I think the supply issues and the weather, I hate to keep complaining about the weather, but it is a factor. I think as it breaks, we've noticed in the areas of the country where the weather has been decent, the volumes have been good. So in the northern part of the country where the weather hasn't been good, there hasn't been an expected take away if that comes around. I think the demand really moves the needle on the market and it certainly will stabilize it.

James McCanless

Analyst

Okay. And then the last question, just housekeeping. Are there any -- with the 3 acquisitions that I think you've done over the last couple of months, are there any SG&A costs or onetime costs we need to build into our model for the rest of the year or all those costs captured in the 1Q numbers?

Michael Cole

Analyst

No, they're all captured in the 1Q numbers.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Kelly with Sidoti.

Robert Kelly

Analyst · Sidoti.

A question on, you called that weather being a drag, any way to quantify either the cost or lost sales due to adverse weather in 1Q?

Michael Cole

Analyst · Sidoti.

Yes. The sales spread was pretty tough. I'm not sure I'll get a great answer for you on that, except to say, when we looked at the, at least the retail part of it, I looked at the independent retailers. And I think, I mentioned the sales number was down about 11%. I would've expected them to be up 9% or 10% those for the quarter, so versus down 11%. So that to me, speaks of weather. And then I guess, the cost side of it is maybe a little bit easier to quantify, though. I mentioned we had an adverse cost variances, we track actual versus the unit costs. We had negative cost variances about $1.7 million this quarter. And while we can't prove that all of that was weather, I would guess the vast majority of it would be weather related.

Robert Kelly

Analyst · Sidoti.

Okay, that's helpful. As far as the independent retailer discussion, have trends picked up more in line with that plus 9%, 10% expectation in March and April?

Matthew Missad

Analyst · Sidoti.

I don't know that I can answer that, Bob. I certainly haven't broken it down, but we received an overall improved sales here more recently, kind of consistent with what we would expect.

Robert Kelly

Analyst · Sidoti.

Okay. So there is some weight to the fact that that weather held back activity in 1Q '14?

Matthew Missad

Analyst · Sidoti.

Yes, absolutely.

Michael Cole

Analyst · Sidoti.

Yes, and we've got some color to that. In places where the weather has broke, sales have improved.

Robert Kelly

Analyst · Sidoti.

Okay, fair enough. A question on the safety stock that you built. Is the average price of inventory that you are carrying coming out of 1Q at the market similar to market levels?

Matthew Missad

Analyst · Sidoti.

Yes. We are very comfortable with our current inventory carrying values.

Robert Kelly

Analyst · Sidoti.

Okay. And then just -- yes, I know that you mentioned the crystal ball earlier. If lumber prices were to, kind of, stabilize at these levels, you'd be relatively in line with lumber prices on average from a year ago. I know there was a lot more volatility in 2Q of '13. Assuming lumber is stable, I'm trying to get a sense of what the levers to gross margin would be in 2014 given the new product expansion, the fact that you're seeing some life in the retail channel, industrial strong, how do we think about gross margin expansion in a stable lumber environment?

Matthew Missad

Analyst · Sidoti.

Yes. I think as you try to put it into perspective, if we can have a stable lumber market, then we will be -- based on just our operating efficiencies, and then I think you'll see something more along what we've seen at historical market for us. Last year, I think we had a market decline in the second quarter of 2013. It's starting to trend that way right now. That they able to reverse, then we would -- we should see a better picture. I can't give you a whole lot more color than that, but you can probably infer from where the market goes as to what the impact would be.

Robert Kelly

Analyst · Sidoti.

Okay, okay, understood. And this is more of a longer-term question. You've talked about the 2017 sales goal of $3 billion, and I think that's indexed to a much lower lumber price. And then in last call, you referenced a return of to 4% to 6% on margins under a normalized demand conditions. What are the assumptions that you kind of built into, from a macro perspective, to get to those, whether it would be unit or sales levels? And then of course, on EBIT margin front?

Matthew Missad

Analyst · Sidoti.

I think from a housing start perspective, which was an indication, not just of construction activity, but also a general economic health, we had built in a $1.5 million housing start number. We also looked for relative stability in the lumber market, not big wild swings in it, and a generally stable labor and cash situation. So maybe, some of the major drivers that we consider as part of our program.

Michael Cole

Analyst · Sidoti.

And as you -- one of the other drivers that you inferred to, Bob, was a lumber market. We used '12 lumber market as part of our forecast. And so I think in '13, we finished with EBITDA as a percent of sales were up 4.5%. I think we've, kind of, normalized that for lumber prices in '12, knowing how we price our products. We are actually at about 5% EBITDA margin last year. So we're making good progress on the goal.

Robert Kelly

Analyst · Sidoti.

Great, great color there. And then just want to follow-on on the price, improved pricing or even competitive pressures, particularly in the framing operations, that's something that's relatively new, it seems. Is it a matter of being able to walk away from or eschew really low margin projects, or is pricing overall from your competitors firming up with some line of sight for demand really turning the corner?

Matthew Missad

Analyst · Sidoti.

I would say it's a combination of both of those factors, plus just kind of an improved on-the-job performance as well. I think the market is definitely firmed up. The availability of labor has created some of that. And our internal policy of not working for practice is certainly being followed. So I think all of those factors have helped drive the improvement.

Robert Kelly

Analyst · Sidoti.

Sure. I guess you kind of called out plus 4% on pricing. I think in the res construction unit, is that really a function of just rolling out of or completing some low margin work, or is that reflecting, sort of, real-time pricing?

Matthew Missad

Analyst · Sidoti.

Again, I would say it's a combination. We think that's a forecast.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Chercover with D.A. Davidson.

Steven Chercover

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

I want to talk about the loss of production as well. If you lost 80 days, how many theoretical production days do you have? I mean, do have plans to work on weekends, for instance?

Matthew Missad

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

Yes, some of them do, especially during times of the year, they're working almost 24/7 in some cases. But in terms of overall, within the first quarter, most of the facilities are not working weekends yet, so the impact is pretty significant of the 80 days.

Steven Chercover

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

So what I was trying to get that, I suppose, is in operating rate. Can you frame it that way? Were you operating at 85%, where it normally would be at 95% or give us some context?

Michael Cole

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

Yes, I think, Steve, it's a -- trying to see what you're trying to do at it, tough one to, kind of, quantify that way because there are so many different locations and they're doing so many different things, operating at so many different rates. So if I try to give a number on that cost ranges that was just kind of a global number. So that what I would typically do is look at that $1.7 million in negative cost variances, assume a very high percentage of it was weather related, and then what we would do is to subtract taxes and bonuses that translated to a new net earnings number of -- on an EPS number of $0.04 to $0.05 a share.

Steven Chercover

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

Got it. Okay. And switching gears, what niches are your new products targeting? Is this more decking materials or what are you going for?

Matthew Missad

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

Actually, Steve, what we are trying to do is improve each one of our product categories. So it will be in each of our markets. Some are obviously easier to address than others, but the challenge for all of our operations is to develop new products and to improve existing product lines. So we're seeing it across a broad spectrum of our operations and our product lines, and we're going to continue to expand that so it's not limited to just one category.

Steven Chercover

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

And what prompted the change in segment presentation?

Matthew Missad

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

I think as we look at it, we tried to combine areas to basically make it easier to understand. We want to -- we know we are confusing diverse company when we talked about it with investors. We have the construction market people who want a look at housing starts, and say, "Well, you're all housing starts driven." And that's true for parts of our business, but it's not true for other parts of our business like the industrial and/or retail. So what we tried to do is create a situation which makes it easier for the investment community to look at us and say, okay, I get it, the residential housing start number ties in much better with construction market. We look at retail and that's more of a repair and remodel. And we look at industrial, and that tends to be industrial output or industrial activity. So we're trying to make it a little easier to understand.

Steven Chercover

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

Got it. Okay, last question. The sales through independents, is it your impression that they offer you on a just-in-time basis? I would think that they would be in an inventory build going into the spring because we know that sooner or later, the weather's going to break. Do you have a sense?

Matthew Missad

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

Yes. They're -- I guess, our view on that is, they're more apt to buy on a just-in-time basis and less to apt to go through that we had inventory build versus the big boxes as an example. The big box has their own distribution networks as well, whereas most of the independents do not, so we're their distribution point, we are carrying inventory for them in most cases.

Steven Chercover

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

So the big boxes were up in the quarter, so we could assume that their inventory levels are appropriate, but since the independents didn't buy presumably, they've -- that's going to be pent-up demand there?

Matthew Missad

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

Yes, that's what we believe.

Operator

Operator

And at this time, we have no further questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Matt Missad for any closing remarks.

Matthew Missad

Analyst

Once again, thank you for listening this morning and for your interest in our company. We are all hoping for blue skies and sunshine or at the very least, dry weather with temperatures above 50 degrees. Please have a great day, and good luck on the Easter egg hunt.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.