William L. Jasper
Analyst · Sidoti & Company
Thanks, Ron, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start my comments today with a brief look at the global economy, including those areas of the world that impact our business the most. World Bank estimates that global GDP is set to grow at 2.2% in 2013, a pace that is slightly lower than a 2.3% registered last year. In their most recent report, the World Bank said the global economy appears to be transitioning toward a period of more stable but slower growth with projected global growth of 3% in 2014 and 3.3% in 2015. In Brazil, the Central Bank recently cut its growth forecast down to 2.7% from 3.1% for 2013, and estimates that -- excuse me, that inflation could reach 6% as the real has posted significant decline against the dollar. However, GDP growth projections for Brazil will improve -- or I think it is expected to improve with an estimate from the World Bank of 4% for 2014 and 3.8% in 2015. The weakening of the real has helped make us, as a domestic producer in Brazil, more competitive at the commodity-end of our business, while our focus on process improvement, mix enrichment and sales price management contributed to improvements in our operating results as the 2013 fiscal year progressed. The continuation of these strategies, along with the reduction in the POY import duty that Roger mentioned earlier, should help us maintain positive momentum in Brazil as we enter the 2014 fiscal year. China's economy is expected to grow 7.6% in the second half of calendar year 2013. Though slower than previous years, it is an indication that China's economic growth at least remains fundamentally stable. According to the World Bank, GDP growth for China is projected to be 8% in 2014 and 7.9% in 2015. A positive indicator for our business in China is that after GDP declines in the European union in 2012 and 2013, the World Bank estimates GDP growth slowly strengthening to 0.9% in 2014 and to about 1.5% in 2015. We believe that an economic recovery in Europe, although slow and tenuous, should result in improving demand for our PVA products, primarily those supplied from UTSC, our Chinese trading company. Although commodity textile activity in China will remain soft in the next fiscal year, we feel confident that our PVA business will continue to strengthen based on the number of current and planned development projects. We are very pleased with the volume and margin improvements in China in fiscal year 2013, and we expect the overall financial performance of UTSC will improve in fiscal '14 and '15. Here in the U.S., the GDP growth estimates for 2013 is about 2%, then strengthening to 2.8% in '14 and 3% in 2015. As Roger mentioned earlier, consumers had limited their spending to the basics such as apparel and hosiery. And retail sales had benefit from this, increasing 4.1% in the first 6 months of the calendar year compared to last year. And another trend that bodes well for our business going forward is the growth in share of synthetic apparel compared to cotton apparel. In 2008, synthetic apparel had a 38% share of total apparel consumption in the U.S. That share is expected to be 49% in 2013. Coupled with growth of apparels sold at retail and a stable regional share of U.S. synthetic apparel at about 18%, we believe the conditions are favorable for continued improvements in our North American operations. We are also encouraged by the cost and supply projections for raw materials over the next few years. Although we expect limited relief in raw material prices in the near term, we do expect to see less volatility in raw material pricing in fiscal 2014 compared to the last 2 years and continued moderation over time. A more stable raw material environment, coupled with our sales price management strategies, should provide more consistency in our gross margins throughout the 2014 fiscal year. Of course, the outlook for raw material assumes there were no major unplanned disruptions at refineries or natural disasters that impact the plants producing key raw materials for our products. Turning to our financial strength that Ron mentioned, we are very pleased by the results of our deleveraging strategy, which we accomplished with the focused disciplined approach over the last several years. The strength and liquidity of our domestic business now provides the foundation needed to support our operational needs, fund future growth initiatives and enable us to execute our stock repurchase plan. During the 2013 fiscal year, the company utilized cash generated from operations and distributions from equity affiliates to repay $24 million of outstanding debt, and as Ron mentioned, repurchase 1.1 million shares of the company's common stock. In addition, we further improved our operating flexibility in 2013 quarter by amending our bank credit facility, as Ron mentioned earlier. With that strong foundation, the company will continue its rigorous improvement programs and evaluation of every feasible opportunity to increase our capacity and flexibility in order to support the growth of our PVA global product portfolio. Last quarter, we announced the $14 million investment over the next 2 years to expand our recycling capacity, increase flexibility of our existing asset base and improve our small-lot production run capability and the development and planning for those projects are underway. Turning now to REPREVE Renewables, our bioenergy feedstock JV, which is commercialized in the proprietary and patented bioenergy crop, FREEDOM Giant Miscanthus. The company has -- the JV has developed rhizome harvesting and planting technology, which have been proven to be highly efficient and effective, significantly reducing establishment costs while providing high germination rates. We believe this technology provides highly competitive commercial scale planting capability and economics, which was the first step in developing this business. We are in the process of filing patents with this noble technology and will further refine it in the 2014 planting season. We also recently hired an experienced agro business executive as the JV CEO, and are in the process of developing a comprehensive business plan to identify the resources needed to support this business based on the defined performance goals in a full year pro forma budget. Based on the geo-potential, elemental composition and environmental properties, FREEDOM Giant Miscanthus has the potential to be the market leader in the growing biomass feedstock market. The bioenergy industry, which utilizes biomass as its feedstock, is estimated to have over $80 billion of annual revenues in the U.S. currently and is projected to grow to $250 billion by 2022. And that's in the U.S. Based on these projections, biomass feedstock revenue from perennial grasses like FREEDOM Giant Miscanthus, are expected to be approximately $30 billion in 2022 in the U.S. alone. In fact, according to industry reports, FREEDOM Giant Miscanthus has an achievable ethanol gallon per acre yield that is nearly 2.5x greater than competing the crops such as switch grass, and 4x greater than corn, which is the primary feedstock for ethanol today. Key industry customers ranked Giant Miscanthus at the top of their list of feedstocks, and they are looking for the type of turnkey solutions that REPREVE Renewables expects to bring to market in future years. We're excited about the potential of this opportunity and intend to develop, implement, validate and measure the progress against this plan during the first 6 months of 2014 fiscal year, and determine appropriate steps for REPREVE Renewables at that time. In addition to the conditions and factors I've just discussed, the company's outlook for fiscal 2014 is also based on the continued focus on our core strategies, which includes driving continuous improvement across all operational and business processes, enriching our product mix by expanding our trade compliant yarn sales and growing a higher margin PVA product portfolio globally. And while we're optimistic about the markets in which we are operating, we do anticipate some of the expected volume and cost improvements will be offset by inflationary pressures this year, specifically in utilities and healthcare costs. With this in mind, the company expects adjusted EBITDA for the 2014 fiscal year to be in a mid- to high-50s and we expect adjusted EBITDA of $14 million to $15 million for the September '14 quarter. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to the operator for any questions that you may have.