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Titan International, Inc. (TWI)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 26, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Titan International Inc. Fourth Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. During this session all lines will be muted until the question-and-answer portion of the call. [Operator Instructions], Please note the call is being recorded. Any statements made in the course of the conference call that state the company’s or management’s intentions, hopes, beliefs, expectations or predictions for the future are considered forward-looking statements. Please note that the Safe Harbor Statements contained in the company’s latest Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission extend to this conference call, and any forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties as detailed therein. At this time, I would like to introduce Titan’s Chairman and CEO, Maurice Taylor.

Maurice Taylor

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Good morning, everyone. There is no doubt 2014 wasn’t what we expected. But you got the press release out there you’ve probably read a lot. But for those who haven’t yet this morning, we’re going to just touch on what the situation was in 2014 and then we’ll go on to what we’re planning for 2015. The sales drop in 2014, were across all the product lines and across the farmer, construction and the mining. The OE schedules were mainly, they just got it sliding them out and then they started reducing in fact, actually at the end of the year they just stopped. And that really affected for a number of reasons, that hit you not only with how do you plan your own schedule but also the employment side. But we’ve made our adjustments to all in 2014 last quarter. So that was a big hit. And there is not, even though we are such a strong OE position, we are also very strong in the aftermarket. And so, we have switched and I’ll cover that in a few minutes. The other thing that really hit us hard was the U.S. dollar strength. And as you all know, the Euro, the Real, the Aussie dollars, the rubles, they’re all lost big time value. The ruble went from 30 to 1, to 60 to 1. Now that hit not only our inventories, it hit the receivable line and all of those things have taken a hit. And there is some good about all of this, about the currency changes but we’ll get into that in a minute. I’m just going through the things that really smacked us. The goodwill, that, was triggered because there was some goodwill on the books from Russia and Brazil and I think a little…

John Hrudicka

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

I think Paul want to make his comments ahead of me.

Maurice Taylor

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Okay, all right, go ahead Paul.

Paul Reitz

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Thanks, Morry, good morning everybody. This past year has certainly presented us with challenges. And a quick look at our 2014 financials may have you saying it was more like New York Jets or Oakland Raiders type season. However, these channel de-ties did present us with good opportunity to drive change. And so I would look at this past year more like an Indianapolis Colts type season, in which we definitely made good progress of building a stronger business for the future. So, what we accomplished this year? We’ve seen big improvements in the overall brand perception of Titan. We significantly rolled out our Ag tire cost and quality through reduced warranty and lower scrap rates. LSW, LSW, LSW, man, we certainly saw progress this year with LSW in demonstrating to the market and our end-users to value. We are sure to see even bigger strides taken in 2015 as we continue to move forward and really making LSW to industry standard. In response to a rapidly changing market this year, we’re trying to reduce our operating cost base through headcount reductions without sacrificing plant efficiency. In fact, along with those expense reductions, we improved our overall output per man-hour worked in our tire division. Looking beyond the 2014 savings, with savings, we launched projects that will drive further improvements to our bottom line in the future such as pricing optimization, salesforce.com, a business improvement framework and EVA. We completed organizational restructuring in North America and launched the One Titan initiative that aligned the structure of our company with our biggest strength, our global wheel and tire assets. If we spend just a few minutes this morning talking a bit more in depth about a couple of these accomplishments, let’s start with the Titan brand. Branding is fundamental and essential…

John Hrudicka

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Thank Paul, good morning everyone. Well, in terms of financial performance and the recent impairment, we are obviously disappointed. We continue to struggle through the mining downturn decline of Ag, specifically large Ag equipment that overcame as in the back half of the year. Story hasn’t changed we’re still in two major cyclical downturns that eroded every area of our performance in 2014 in terms of revenue pricing and productivity. Related to our locations in Russia, Australia and Brazil, as Morry noted, we’ve reported goodwill impairment in Q4 of $36.6 million or $20.8 million after adjusting for non-controlling interest. I’m sure also everybody noticed that we incurred a significant loss of $20.5 million related to currency exchange in Q4, totaling $31.7 million for the full year. These losses primarily reflect the translation of inter-company loans at foreign subsidiaries denominating currencies other than the functional currencies. These losses were significant due to the relative strength of the dollar, U.S. dollar and while these translation losses were significant during the quarter and year, the P&L amount does not represent an actual realized loss from the settlement of these inter-company obligations. We have the ability to dictate the ultimate turnaround timing of these actual settlements. So, if we were to adjust for the currency exchange losses, non-controlling interests, impairment and inventory write-down that occurred in the second half of the year, full-year net income attributable to Titan would be a loss of $17.6 million when compared to the net income loss of $130.4 million as reported in the 10-K. So, let’s begin talking about revenue. Sales for the year were at $1.9 billion, this was down $268 million or 12.4% from prior year. The year-over-year decrease was driven at a gross level almost entirely by the reductions in North American Ag and mining.…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. The first question comes from Sean Williams from BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Sean Williams

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Hi, good morning.

Maurice Taylor

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Hi Sean.

Sean Williams

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

I wondered if we could maybe talk about the revenue outlook as we move into 2015, a lot of moving pieces here. FOREX headwinds, you’ve got macro working against you but some of that being possibly offset by LSW and then maybe some other opportunities. I know you gave a kind of an, EBITDA guidance for 2015, are you willing to give kind of a revenue range that or ballpark do you think plausible?

Maurice Taylor

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

I’m back in, I missed the question.

Sean Williams

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

So, the question Morry was essentially, I mean, you gave EBITDA guidance for 2015 of about $115 million. Are you willing to kind of put a ballpark around kind of what the top-line could look like just given all the moving pieces with FOREX, macro headwinds, possibly offset by some of the traction on LSW?

Maurice Taylor

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Well, we don’t know. Forecasting with the end of the sales side, I can tell you because I’ve been on the frigging road now with this LSW program for three years. But this last year, I know the aftermarket people who are ordering the tire and wheels, I know that we got compared to, let’s just say the standard tire, we’ve got margins as Paul and John talked about that we’ve looked at it real good. And I know where that is going, I know that we have out of Canada a dealer who is, when a guy steps up and ship these order of 800,000 and tire on some ways, and this is for his customers, and it’s starting to roll and when you have your managers, who have not [technical difficulty]. Europe, with Europe, we’re not counting Europe. We’re not going to have LSW so that’s the shipment from the U.S. And I think we’re going to be having to keep that going. And the other item is that we’ve done it on the construction and the mining. And on the mining side, we’re looking at. We’ve been told that if we produce the LSW in a big, we’ve already got the ones who are the CAT 994, that’s their biggest loader. And we have one mine that had this thing for years now, and it’s been through all the tests. And they’re so excited. But they also have some marathon on the turn. So, we have turned and we’re making the marathon and the turn. And we look for them to cut the contract with us for 13 mines. So when you look at where it is and when you look at the goal, and you put those numbers together that’s what I kind of like based,…

Sean Williams

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Okay. And then if I could follow-up maybe on the specifics around the cost savings. I mean, it sounds like you’ve bumped that up from kind of $40 million to now $50 million in savings. Can you guys clarify how much of that $50 million is incremental versus what you’ve already kind of partially captured in the back half of ‘14, so some of the savings you theoretically already captured, maybe some of that in Q3 and Q4. Could you may be dissect how much of that is kind of truly incremental as we move into 2015?

Paul Reitz

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Yes. Sean, I mean, when you look at it, the headcount reductions you got over $40 million coming through that. So, like you said, that’s already plugged in from the back half of the year. We’ve accomplished our goals and keeping headcount in line with the volume changes. The rest of the benefit is really coming from initiatives that have been watching, and certainly that’s coming from a number of different sources, it’s really across the board. And I couldn’t sit here and tell you that there is one area that’s driving that, a lot of it, I think it’s a lot of team-work, it’s a lot of efforts across the tire organization realizing that we need to be focused on the bottom-line and work together to make some enhancements to it. So, the $50, to guess with you, we even got more over that, we’re working on beyond that. So, I would answer your question, you got over $40 million that’s baked in already with headcount. We feel pretty confident that you can get up to the $50 with what we’ve got baked in internally. And then I will say this amongst our group here, we’re already looking at a number above and beyond that and we’re going to keep driving that higher.

Maurice Taylor

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

So, Sean, let me add one more thing to you. You see, the - we took on an awful lot in Russia, and Russia is going to go. But as the new equipment comes in and everything and I appreciate the product range they have. They probably should take another 200 out. But when you take it over and you take out the group you have, you got a big shock. In fact, I met with the President of the Union. And he even said to us that he said, he appreciated, he wished it didn’t happen but he appreciated the fact that we not only did it to the hourly, we took down the whole salary group too. So, and he knows he wants to see it become strong and viable. And I think that technically they had got the techniques, they got all the technical know-how everything else, they just got to get a little bit stronger on their management and accountability and a few other things. But then you move through the other, as Paul stated, we paid all the severances as been approved in ‘14 and everything there so if you’re talking about. But the results that you’re going to get are really going to start coming in the second quarter of this year, because you got - you’re dealing with people and the rumor now just runs violent, okay. And the situation you have in the North America as Paul mentioned, there is so many other opportunities but you’d be yet to do very careful in this market that you don’t grow hog-wild. And then you end up short-searching a customer and this is the wrong time to do that. So, I think that we’re very conservative on everything. Personally, but they’re making that $50 million is going to be, I think they’ve got chances to go above that, personally.

John Hrudicka

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Hi Sean, I’ll just add a couple of comments. The $40 million that Paul referred to, I mean, as I’ve said a number of times over the past couple of quarters, this is really just chasing the revenue decline and playing catch-up in terms of trying to mitigate the erosion and loss that occurred from the revenue reduction. So that’s a bit of catch-up and just being responsible from a standpoint of adapting to the revenue loss. Now what Paul referred to also above and beyond that is the business improvement framework that we have a number of initiatives that are being driven across the globe that we planned for, we assigned probabilities. We have points of discussions around progress and resource alignment and investment and things like that, these - we do plan, we do forecast and project the execution but none of this is guaranteed, some projects like you referred to in terms of the pricing practice. But we’re pursuing, I talked earlier about the rubber purchasing, the hybrid approach and that’s going to produce savings. So, as we get a little bit further into the year, we’ll get more clarity in terms of the probability of execution and what that will mean for our bottom line.

Sean Williams

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

All right, John. And maybe if I could sneak in one more here, obviously you’ve put in some new FOREX hedging mechanisms. I wondered if you could, I don’t know just assuming we don’t see significant further changes and where the FOREX levels are, can you kind of clarify what were the losses that you incurred in 2014 and how much of that potentially goes away as you moved into 2015 given some of these new mechanisms that you have in place?

John Hrudicka

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

All right, well, yes, I’ll talk a little bit about that. I mean, obviously I can’t predict where some of these currencies are going to move. You would have liked the thought they would have stabilized as we came out of the year, but early in 2015, they’re on a run again. So, the Russian Ruble obviously contributed significantly, it was over two thirds of our loss this year. Europe was a big part of the loss. Now I did say we hedged both the Euro and the British Pound. So I feel like we’re going to mitigate any - for the most part hopefully any potential 2015 impact to close with those two currencies. As I said earlier, we did not take a hedge position at derivative against the ruble, the Brazilian Real or the Aussie dollar and they were cost prohibited, specifically the ruble. And against inter-company loans, these are not realized losses. So it wouldn’t make a great deal of sense for us to pay money to do that. Now with all that being said, we had not been actively hedging before, so this is kind of our first throw on the table. We have another meeting with our partner in March to explore other dimensions of how we start to mitigate more and more aspects of risks associated with our currency. So, you’ll hear more about that in quarters to come. But that’s probably the best answer I have for you at this point.

Sean Williams

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Okay, thanks guys. I’ll get back in the queue here.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Alex Blanton of Clear Harbor Asset Management. Please go ahead.

Alex Blanton

Analyst · Clear Harbor Asset Management. Please go ahead

Good morning.

Maurice Taylor

Analyst · Clear Harbor Asset Management. Please go ahead

Good morning.

Alex Blanton

Analyst · Clear Harbor Asset Management. Please go ahead

I didn’t hear all of the opening remarks did you discuss the tire recognition project and all Maurice?

Maurice Taylor

Analyst · Clear Harbor Asset Management. Please go ahead

No, I didn’t go in that. That’s in it.

Alex Blanton

Analyst · Clear Harbor Asset Management. Please go ahead

In the press release, there is a paragraph about it, but I wonder if you could give us a little more color on that, tell us where it was?

Maurice Taylor

Analyst · Clear Harbor Asset Management. Please go ahead

What happened is our partner up there on this is Suncor. We’re on the voyagers’ side that bring - they turned around and they bought for I think it was like $5 billion. And they’re building a refinery there. So, those who want to know that this was a multiyear situation. We also have a partner in our situation which is the first nation up there. I would tell you the tribe but I can’t pronounce it. And so what happened is, the Suncor turned around and hired Jacobs Engineering and a couple of other firms. And what they did is they turned around and went through everything and went what was going on, and lowered up thought for them. And they, what we are planning to do is very viable and it works. So, what happens is, it’s too cold up there by the time they got the lease for the site, its 10 acres and they got it all done. The winner had sat in, so at this point we have signed up other companies to do the same situation. We have - the unique thing about this is that we will probably at patent side, we’ll probably be doing tires and wheels of certain sizes for them as future goes, and the few partners with them. It’s a pretty good thing. So, we’re going to be taking their tires and taking their all of the delta, anything basically has got the lever. And it will there will be six reactors there, three minimum will be up by September, by which the reactors would be ready, it’s just how fast we can get all of this and transport it up there and get it going, so.

Alex Blanton

Analyst · Clear Harbor Asset Management. Please go ahead

What kind of revenue do you expect from six reactors?

Maurice Taylor

Analyst · Clear Harbor Asset Management. Please go ahead

The revenue right now what we’re looking at is that we’re going to do, we will take let’s see, we’ll take four tires per unit per day, so we will take 24 tires, so 24 tires will be approximately £240,000 a day. And we can figure out the oil, we can figure out the carbon black and the price of steel at advance, because if you got a commodity and we will probably use most of the carbon black ourselves but that’s a commodity. So we have the numbers but that’s like, you got different numbers, if oil is up at $80 or $100 a barrel, then when it’s at $45. So, until we see exactly and sign some contracts with the people, who are going to buy it with us, I’ll just be giving you a guess. I do believe that the - for Titan’s part. I believe that the wheels and tires, the track will probably generate in the years ahead anywhere from a minimum of $40 million probably at the $80 million a year. That’s just them buying through us.

Alex Blanton

Analyst · Clear Harbor Asset Management. Please go ahead

That’s just the six reactors?

Maurice Taylor

Analyst · Clear Harbor Asset Management. Please go ahead

Pardon.

Alex Blanton

Analyst · Clear Harbor Asset Management. Please go ahead

Is that $40 million to $80 million year for those six reactors or is there more that you’re planning to put?

Maurice Taylor

Analyst · Clear Harbor Asset Management. Please go ahead

No, no, no, the $40 million is the amount of business that Titan will get in wheels, tires and tracks. That has nothing to do with the reactor side.

Alex Blanton

Analyst · Clear Harbor Asset Management. Please go ahead

Okay.

Maurice Taylor

Analyst · Clear Harbor Asset Management. Please go ahead

Okay.

Alex Blanton

Analyst · Clear Harbor Asset Management. Please go ahead

What kind of corporate margins do you expect on revenue from that operation?

Maurice Taylor

Analyst · Clear Harbor Asset Management. Please go ahead

Well, the tire, wheel and track business flows into - doesn’t flow through TTRC, it flows back through to the Titan Mining in which we own. So, it will be the same profit margins, probably a little bit that we’re doing pretty much in the aftermarket. When you turn around and you get to the other, I think that we’re going to be right around 50% EBITDA.

Alex Blanton

Analyst · Clear Harbor Asset Management. Please go ahead

Okay, thank you.

Maurice Taylor

Analyst · Clear Harbor Asset Management. Please go ahead

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Tom O’Shea of Castle Hill. Please go ahead. Tom O’Shea: Hi, I guess you sort of talked about this, but just on the $150 million EBITDA guidance, can you give us some type of bridge from where you stand today or just talk about the three divisions whether or not you think sales are up or down - it sums up with the model at all?

Maurice Taylor

Analyst · the model at all

Well, I think what’s going to happen, I think that, I think Ag sales that the problem that is so hard right now, the figure to top it out for you, is I think the wheel sales are going to be down because overall Ag from an OE side is going to be down. But our tire size, tire business should be better this next year than it was last year in almost all of our segments, okay. So, when we looked at everything, we - you have it down but since the uptake of the LSW which we only got notification of the OEs and acceptance and like December, there was talk back in the Spring, not the Spring, the Fall, they had but they didn’t actually go out and put it in their pricing books so dealers could order it, okay. In fact, it took down almost how 90 to 100 and some days to put it in the price book, we had dealers. We had farmers calling them. And they were telling, we don’t have that option, we don’t have that option. So it took some very angry big dealers to get that moved. So, and most of that, a big chunk of it is going to come from the LSW added business and the Ag, and the construction in OE. We’re going up to a big shell in Saskatchewan in a couple of weeks. And we’re going to prey it up, our new 20.5 by 31.5 snow tire, which we never produced before. And that’s what they want for motors and graders. So, and that maybe is going to do a hell of a job. So that’s what we’re banking on and I’m pretty confident the situation of Europe we baked in, I do believe that the latter half of the year, I think the Russians are going to kick in pretty good mainly because their cost has just been wavered to us, it’s cut in half. So they’re going to be able to export, and I mean, export quite a bit, in fact we - because I get all my competitors on the phone, I’m not going to give them a bunch of information four, five months ahead of time. But with the new product we have for them and what we’re going to do for them is pretty good. We have moulds we can ship them brand new moulds that would make everything real nice for them, into Europe. And then price wise that should be competitive with anybody. So we’re excited about it.

John Hrudicka

Analyst · the model at all

And I’ll just add a few comments in response to the question. First of all, I think guidance was used a couple of times. This is the goal that Morry stated in the press release on the call it’s not a function of a forecast. So the goal at this point, not particularly I would not say guidance. In terms of what are some of the drivers that would allow us to improve profitability we talked about a number of them, I mean Morry referred to aftermarket, I think everybody knows that after market, we have higher margins. We do expect some nice slight aftermarket growth associated with the replacement cycle, the tires that were purchased in ‘11 and ‘12. Morry referred to Russia, Australia, they’ve made a number of operational improvements. The headcount reduction again is chasing the revenue curve, that’s a significant improvement that was talked about. And then the business improvement framework that Paul Reitz referred to, there was a number of initiatives that we are engaged in and exercising well beyond just headcount reductions that will significantly improve profitability both short-term and long-term for the company. Tom O’Shea: Okay. And CapEx for this year is like 65?

John Hrudicka

Analyst · the model at all

Yes, correct. Tom O’Shea: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Charles Rowel [ph], a private investor. Please go ahead.

Charles Rowel

Analyst

Yes. It appears as I recall, we change the way we pass through the price of rubber in our pricing to customers. Now that rubber is starting to move up in price, has that change proven to be wise or do you wish we were back in the old manner?

Maurice Taylor

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

This is Morry. I think what happens, I don’t know with - what happens if it’s in OE, and rubber goes up, it will get passed through. On the aftermarket, is mainly what you can do that the market will grow, and generally unless the boys here have changed something that is Greek to me?

John Hrudicka

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Hi Morry, let me clarify. We have not changed the pass-back methodology that you referred to. I think maybe where there might be some confusion what we have changed is, we’ve constructed and adopted a new purchasing and procurement process relative to rubber by which we think we can lower a cost base as they mitigate risk. But we’ve not changed how we pass back costs to the OE.

Charles Rowel

Analyst

Okay, that answers my question. Thank you.

Maurice Taylor

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Maurice Taylor for any closing remarks.

Maurice Taylor

Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead

I thank all of you. I’m assuming it’s still cold up there in the Northeast and wherever you’re at. That’s another thing we’ve burned up a lot of energy this past year. But thank you all. And you have a good spring, it’s coming. Talk to you later. Bye-bye.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.