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Titan International, Inc. (TWI)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Tue, Oct 28, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the welcome to the Titan International Incorporated Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. During this session all lines will be muted until the question-and-answer portion of the call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this event is being recorded. Any statements made in the course of the conference call that state the company's or management's intentions, hopes, beliefs, expectations or predictions for the future are considered forward-looking statements. Please note that the Safe Harbor Statements contained in the company’s latest Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission extend to this conference call, and any forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties as detailed therein. At this time, I would like to introduce and turn the call over to Titan's Chairman and CEO, Maurice Taylor.

Maurice Taylor

CEO

: The other thing that you should notice is that when we made the acquisitions with Titan Europe and we went into Russia, what we did is in Europe we paid off a great chunk of their debt but we did not pay it off references, capital infusion. What we did is we loaned them the money and we loaned them in U.S. dollars and at a rate that our bond rates are and the same thing was true with Russia and the money they need the capital to run, which says we’re in that partnership, but we loaned the money. And the same actually is true in Brazil. So needless to say the euro went down and the ruble really went down and so has the Brazilian real, so we – our loan hasn’t gone down because it’s U.S. dollars but all of them had to take the currency adjustments which had ultimately when they can do, they will have the situation in hand, so that they can pay us back. So that is one of the big items. So what else is the last two weeks on the business side has been very good for Titan from what we have heard. Number one, you’ve all heard us speak about our LSWs, we just finished with our dealer meetings in Florida and the work coming out of there is probably very high, that we picked up, number one, is that the old heaves have started putting in the options to buy tire and wheel assemblies and combines, tractors and big spaces that are huge. And that’s been a very uplifting thought because as everyone knows we’re the only ones who produce both the wheel and the tire. In fact, right now, we’re the only ones who produce those tires…

Paul Reitz

Management

Thanks, Morry. Good morning, everybody. It was a challenging quarter in a number of aspects as we’ve seen that large demand as far tires and wheels really weakened during the quarter. For us, that triggered a double-digit decline in ag volumes in nearly all of our geographical locations. We talked about this on the Q2 call that we anticipated the volume erosion, and by end of the June we’d already eliminated nearly 800 positions in anticipating that decline. On the earthmoving construction side, the markets continued to be on similar trends to prior periods, small constructions up a little bit, while overall mining volumes due continue to remain very weak. Q3 for us is always impacted by seasonality with the summer shutdowns for – in July for North America, then in August for Europe. But if you take a step back beyond that and the deterioration of volumes from our demand, as Morry mentioned, we had a couple of very significant non-cash items that impact this quarter. Now, I want to bring up that FX we took again this quarter. It’s tied to intercompany balances. It’s something that absent just capitalizing all those loans. It was not an option that we want to pursue but there are other avenues that we are going to pursue and John will speak to that in his comments, but if you take out the FX and you also back out another couple of million dollars mining inventory write-downs that we had, which was similar to what took place in the second quarter, you will see actually our operational results for the quarter will later on break-even, so if I look at beyond those headline numbers and taking out a couple of those non-cash items and you get a different picture. Last quarter, I spoke…

John Hrudicka

Management

Thanks, Paul. Good morning, everyone. Well, I’m needless to say Q3 was a disappointed quarter in terms of performance continuing against the backdrop of price reductions, mining downturn and decline of ag and specifically large ag equipment as was referenced by both Morry and Paul. The story is the same as told in Q2. We’re in a two major cyclical downturn that are eroding every area of our performance revenue, pricing and productivity. Related to mining, we recorded an inventory write-down of $1.5 million to adjust for the value of return mining product to estimated market-value. This is a tire version that was impaired in Q2. As Morry and Paul both indicated we incurred a significant loss of $13.3 million related to currency exchange. These losses primarily reflect the translation of inter-company loans and balances at foreign subsidiaries, denominating currencies other than their functional currencies. These losses were significant due to the relative strength of the U.S. dollar. While these translation losses were significant during the quarter that P&L amounts do not represent an actual real life loss from the settlement of the inter-company obligations. We have the ability to dictate the ultimate tenure and timing of these actual settlements. So as mentioned by Paul, if we were to adjust for currency exchange losses, non-controlling interests and mining inventory write-down, I just identified net-income attributable to Titan would nearly be break-even and $0.5 million loss when compared to $9.1 million loss as reported in the 10-Q. So let’s begin by talking about revenue, quarter sales were at $450 million, this was down 9.6% from Q3 of last year and $14.1% from second quarter. The 9.6% year-over-year decrease was driven at a gross level, entirely by the reductions in North American ag and mining. The rest of this is the addition…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Okay. The first question comes from Ian Zaffino of Oppenheimer. Ian Zaffino – Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.: Hi, thanks for taking the call. Question would on the cost cuts, I know you mentioned the $40 million savings, as you look at what else you could do, can you kind of give us an idea of how much larger that cost reduction would be, so would that $40 million go higher than that, or it’s more of a just to be efficiency gains? Thanks.

Maurice Taylor

CEO

Well, go ahead, Paul.

John Hrudicka

Management

Well, if you say a real quick, Morry, that $40 million will go higher. I will let, Morry, address the rest of it. But that’s just where we stand today, what we've accomplished already, but the number will go higher as Morry mentioned, as Paul mentioned as well that we are not done with what we need to do to get the company right-sized, so we got more. Ian Zaffino – Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.: Could that seem like $80 million, or is more like a $60 million the right number?

John Hrudicka

Management

We will work through that as we kind of get through the year end and we get into our plan for 2015, Ian. Clearly, I think, what is demonstrating is that, we've already accomplished a lot that will position us well for 2015. We've done all this in basically two quarters. So, the impact has been significant not only for 2015, but it will start bearing some fruit here in the latter part of 2014. So we'll give you more clarity on the exact number as we go forward into the future, but I just want to give a point as to what we've already done so far. Ian Zaffino – Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.: Okay. Thank you.

Maurice Taylor

CEO

Yes, Ian, one thing to touch on is, when you take these things – reductions, whether they are in Russia, they are down in South America, there are in wheel plants. You got to understand that you've been running certain factories for last four years, which really been banging real hard. Well, humans, it’s real simple, they add on body after body after body. So now we are growing through as Paul mentioned, and we are whacking. Now, once it really starts moving, we are going to be maybe short in a few areas, but your percentage reference and profit and everything else will go back up. And now we're trying to set in as I mentioned the situation where you don’t go back and start increasing everything under the disguise of it will get you more. Anyhow, that’s what we are trying to do. Ian Zaffino – Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.: Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Larry De Maria of William Blair. Lawrence De Maria – William Blair & Company LLC: Hi.

Maurice Taylor

CEO

Good morning, Larry. How are you? Lawrence De Maria – William Blair & Company LLC: Hi, Morry, pretty good. Thanks. Pretty good, just trying to rectify the outlook, you guys are cutting production in the fourth quarter doing some restructuring obviously. It seems to imply, thanks for giving it better but also we’re going through downturn. So I am just curious, do we have a plan in place to be EPS positive in the fourth quarter in 2015, do we have visibility on that or is that a work in progress at this point.

Maurice Taylor

CEO

Are you talking to 2015 or are you talking to 2014, you said 2015? Lawrence De Maria – William Blair & Company LLC: Well, I am saying this fourth quarter and 2015.

Maurice Taylor

CEO

Oh 2015, I don’t think there’s any problem. You see, I appreciate the last 10 days have been very, very – information has been very good to our company, in other words if you read what I wrote and you can imply that little contradiction, but it’s not really the contradiction. But, if you read my October 16, little message, I talked about everything. Well, since that memo when out, we not only – well I can’t name the companies, but we have gotten my emails et cetera, that the options have been granted, we have put into their catalogs, so various products on February will start being shipped with our LSW tires and wheels. And we believe that’s going to generate more profit toward the OE. We also believe it’s going to generate for their dealers a little extra profit. Now, to give you a – and since that time we had one big John Deere dealer who turnaround then ordered 33 sets of our big LSW tires for its customers and the combine. And, he is out there if you know anything that Midwest has been really wet. And there is two pieces of equipment running through these wet fields, one with track and one with our LSWs. There difference is you can go fast with our LSWs than you can with track, and track is $75,000 a set, where a set of LSW is on the front are probably about $10,000. So, this dealer was at our meeting in Florida this past weekend. And he mentioned how some farmers have called them very, very thankful that he bought the tires instead of going for the tracks. And I have personally been with some of the major OEs and I attribute that their interest and desire to put this into their pricing book has come strictly from what we have been doing for three years and that’s a big push. And if you look here at it, Larry, where let’s just say, whatever percentage, whether we were 35%, 40% of the large tire business in big ag, when you start every big ag machine will perform better with our LSWs. So I have been told that our percentages are going up in 2015. And I would think that LSW is going to be part of it, big time. So everything we’ve heard them last two weeks and this is just not also ag by the way, we’ve got the same situation happening in the construction side. Lawrence De Maria – William Blair & Company LLC: :

Maurice Taylor

CEO

I don’t have any visibility, but if we even get half of what I think we’re going to get, hell yeah, it will drive everything, because once you put all these cost reductions, putting the bodies down we’re going to be in pretty decent shape. At least that’s how I feel. Lawrence De Maria – William Blair & Company LLC: Okay. And for – in the LSW, how many OEs are you on now? Is it – do you just got on the morning, the biggest one that we hoped for?

Maurice Taylor

CEO

No, no. I can’t tell you that. I’m going to – there’s not a lot of choices there, is it Larry? You get my ass in trouble. Now… Lawrence De Maria – William Blair & Company LLC: Well, you’re the biggest…

Maurice Taylor

CEO

Well, right now, we’re at – we’re on two of them and I believe by March this next year we’ll be on a lot more, okay? Lawrence De Maria – William Blair & Company LLC: All right, congratulations on that. And then, Morry, can I just ask you, what are the OEs at talking now about volumes, is there a change, is it getting worse, is it sentiment change in the OEs, when they’re saying 20, 25, 10, how do you we think about sum it up between the…?

Maurice Taylor

CEO

I think that I can just tell you the OEs aren’t saying the diddly-damn, okay? Because I don’t think they really have the handle on it. I can tell you that we had some equipment dealers at our meeting this past weekend and some of them are doing pretty good. They also know that, they’ve got every supply of used equipment. And they expect certain items to slow up. Again, we also found out, how would you like to have bought a great big tractor. Like I said in my letter, you bought a tractor a year ago, you pay $300,000 for it and now with power hops and road ships that you’re trying to hoe the stuff down through the field and you could never keep up with the track. And now if you put these other tires and wheels, you’re running right with the track and saving 6% of your fuel. But you’re kicked off because your tires you got are good, everything is good, but they give you the wrong thing. So, it’s like a lot of tire dealers, some equipment dealers are trying to figure out how to have an exchange program. : Lawrence De Maria – William Blair & Company LLC: Okay. Thanks, Morry. Good luck.

Maurice Taylor

CEO

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

The next question will come from Alex Blanton of Clear Harbor Asset Management LLC. Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management LLC: Hi, good morning.

Maurice Taylor

CEO

Good morning, Alex. Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management LLC: Good morning. Can you hear me?

Maurice Taylor

CEO

Yeah. Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management LLC: Okay. Morry or Paul, could you give us a detailed update on the tire re-commission project which is scheduled to start sometime in 2015? How many sites will there be initially? What will be the estimated revenue and profit from those sites?

Maurice Taylor

CEO

Okay. Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management LLC: There was a lot of information given about that in the past, but recently we haven’t heard of lot so we need an update on that.

Maurice Taylor

CEO

Well, we have just – like everything that happens in the oil sands, you have mountains and mountains of regulation. Okay? So what happened is we have approximately between 10 acres and 12 acres that we have signed from our friends at Suncor. And we have – at this point you have to file all the paperwork, because it’s up into that territory, so we got the EPA, you got some of… Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management LLC: Can you just skip to the bottom line, when will this come online and how much will it…?

Maurice Taylor

CEO

We are going to be – we are currently right now, we have just gotten rode into the site. We’re going to fence it off. We are not going to turn around and try to pour concrete in this period of time through the winter. So probably in March we will be back up there, we will start – well our plan today which you want to know is to be able to fire the first set of reactors off at August of this next year, all right. Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management LLC: 2015.

Maurice Taylor

CEO

And what we’re looking at is, we are looking at having six reactors up there and we are looking at those six reactors to generate somewhere between the 30 million and 35 million on just the tires. Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management LLC: That’s per reactor or total?

Maurice Taylor

CEO

Total, okay. Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management LLC: 30 million to 35 million from the six reactors?

Maurice Taylor

CEO

Yes. And then we’re looking at putting – the government has requested we put a facility up down towards between Calgary and Edmonton, and if we do that that will have three reactors. And we’ve been asked at numerous other locations, but what we’re going to do is, do the one first, because it means so much, it does not just mean reclamation services. It means wheels, tires and tracks. Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management LLC: What’s the profit margin on the 30 million to 35 million?

Maurice Taylor

CEO

It’s substantial, that I have partners too, prior the partner we have is Suncor and of course, Green Jarbun [ph], so it has a very fast pay-back, let’s put it that way. Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management LLC: Fast past-back, I think, didn’t you mention a 50% margin at one point?

Maurice Taylor

CEO

Well, there’s an awful lot of stuff out there, but I would say that’s a very doable number. Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management LLC: 50% margin on the 30 million, 35 million. Got a 5 million per reactor revenue?

Maurice Taylor

CEO

Well, you do more than just a reactor, you got – you got your carbon black, you got your steel, you got your oil. How do you know now if oil is dropping like it is, all right? The only thing we’re pretty good about this is, it’s bio-oil that, now we get all the improvements, we’ve all tested it. The EPA in the U.S., the Canadian in EPA, because you’re using natural rubbers used in all these tires, it comes from rubber trees. So it’s kind of – the traces are going to be bio instead of synthetic rubber, you’re using the bio. So the situation is you get paid like price as much for bio so we’re going for the certification. Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management LLC: Okay. Thank you very much, Morry.

Maurice Taylor

CEO

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

The next question will come from Philip Volpicelli of Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Philip Volpicelli – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.: Good morning.

Maurice Taylor

CEO

Good morning, Philip. Philip Volpicelli – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.: So what I’m trying to find out is where is the inventory right now within the income statement, is that in COGS or it’s in SG&A, because I don’t see it broken out on the line item?

Paul Reitz

Management

That’s going to be in COGS. Philip Volpicelli – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.: Okay. And then the cost savings that we’re looking at, the $40 million, I believe you’ve already, the heads are out, so those savings should start coming in, what the timing of when we’ll achieve the full $40 million and is that coming out of COGS or SG&A?

Maurice Taylor

CEO

It’s coming out of both.

Paul Reitz

Management

Yes, coming out of both and the timing of the savings, this year you’re still working through any recorded severance payments and the likes. So the timing of the savings if that’s been removed from the company now, the flow through will start in 2015 without the hindrance of the severance payments. So it’s coming across really all areas like Morry said, it’s both SG&A and COGS and it’s more heavily geared towards volume so it will be geared more towards the COGS but it’s across really all locations. Philip Volpicelli – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.: Okay. So maybe, two-third, one-third COGS versus SG&A, saving, those kind of outlook?

Paul Reitz

Management

These are rough numbers. Philip Volpicelli – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.: Okay. And then obviously a part of your business is selling tires to existing equipment that’s out in the marketplace, can you remind us of what the percent of ag, earth-moving construction and consumer, is selling aftermarket tires versus new equipment going out the door?

Maurice Taylor

CEO

Well, you’re looking the aftermarket as always been in the range of 65% to 70% of the tire business, okay? So, that’s what the aftermarket compared to the OE is, but the OE is generally speaking is at a much better position to try to look forward and to get them in the aftermarket because of our wheel business. That’s what we done there, so everybody can say, which one is the best. We think we've got the right idea unless you can get your volume up, we’re going to push the LSW into the aftermarket, because the cost, the wheels will not be, are not the heavier costs. They've got good margin better than the other, but this is what we have... Philip Volpicelli – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.: Okay. And I guess what I'm trying to figure out is, obviously, there is some inventory in the channel and dealers that hold this as they destock already, or is there more destocking to go in that aftermarket business?

Maurice Taylor

CEO

I don’t think the dealers that we have that we are dealing with, I don’t think that they are in a situation of destocking. Philip Volpicelli – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.: So are you still seeing good flow through from your North American ag dealers with tires and construction with the...

Maurice Taylor

CEO

I was just with them and they all talked pretty good. Philip Volpicelli – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.: Okay. All right, that’s great. And then in terms of the comment early about no financial covenants, that includes the ABL, there is no – any covenant in the ABLs, is that right?

John Hrudicka

Management

Correct. Philip Volpicelli – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.: Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

The next question will come from Tom O'Shea of Castle Hill. Go ahead. Tom O'Shea – Castle Hill Asset Management LLC: Hi, can you just go back over the guidance, I saw the October 16th statements, and now I'm just trying to figure out how that compares what you are saying in the call today. Are you saying that you think sales will be up now in 2015? Could you just speak to that? And then I saw last November you put out management goals, will you be doing that again this November? Thanks.

Maurice Taylor

CEO

All right. The first question is, we send out that, what I thought on October 16 would just be that, if the LSW takes off like it is going to be a good year for us in 2015. But we had just at that time, we turned around and we did not have any sign, concrete talks on the – our OEs, but since that time, we have now in December, I will be meeting with – our OEs to – we do how many and what orders are coming into them. So between now and then and by the way, it took eight months just to put part numbers in, so not from us, but from our customer. So what we’re going to do is (indiscernible) as soon as we get the final numbers and then everything else, we’re going to get not only all of our – it’s our big farmers that we used to test stuff, but we’re going to turnaround in hit all of the dealers out there and equipment and make aware, however, there is not only the negative that are used out of the equipment they are selling, but they can make a little extra money. So I personally believe, we’re going to have a much better year in 2015 that we even talked about two weeks ago, okay. And around the guidance side, the OEs are not going out like they are used to the one here. They gave us and they move –they’re moving too much, so that, I can look at it for a short period of time. But I think, we’ll have a much better feel on December, and if we get a good feel we’ll go and tell the market. Tom O'Shea – Castle Hill Asset Management LLC: Okay. And the working capital for this year, do you see much more cash pull out of working capital in the fourth quarter?

Maurice Taylor

CEO

No. Tom O'Shea – Castle Hill Asset Management LLC: Thanks very much.

Maurice Taylor

CEO

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Bob Franklin of Prudential Financial. Robert Franklin – Prudential Financial: Hi, quick question for John. Did you tell us how much the $40 million is going to cost you to implement?

John Hrudicka

Management

No, I did not. I did not, sure of that. Robert Franklin – Prudential Financial: Would you like to share it?

John Hrudicka

Management

I think all I will say is that, in terms of 2014, the net savings that we’re realizing through the reductions, it’s fairly marginal because of the severance. Robert Franklin – Prudential Financial: Yes, I mean, a lot of the costs for that $40 million save will be absorbed in 2014, I think is the benefit in 2015.

John Hrudicka

Management

So, the comment, Paul, made about the $40 million, that’s the annualized impact that we expect in 2015, absent severance costs that we’ve incurred this year. Robert Franklin – Prudential Financial: Okay, so, okay, got it. And how do you feel about your ability to be cash flow positive in 2015 all in?

John Hrudicka

Management

Well, we’re in the midst of planning 2015 right now and we don’t have that result at this moment, but certainly that’s an expectation and then objective of 2015 is to be free cash flow positive. Robert Franklin – Prudential Financial: :

Maurice Taylor

CEO

Yes. What we’re trying to show and let me explain this. It’s like – if you’ve never been at a farm we knew – to give you an idea to go to our website, you will see one big guy that buys about – I think he buys 20 some combines from our friends and some other dear. They – he ran the LSWs on his combine for two years. And he just – now that’s two combines, and he will say the drivers what they find, first they save 6%, okay. So he will go to the LSWs all the way across. But remember, if you buy $200,000 great big four-wheel drive tractors, you are spending almost – the farmer spends almost $50,000 of that tractor on tires and wheels. So what happens now is the guy that bought that same tractor last year, and he has got the 800x38 instead of 800x46, he is going to be ticked, I would. And so the OE hasn’t quite caught up and like the fellow from the timeline [ph] says, on the video he says, well, how in the hell they expect to give you the same equipment with same tires and wheels. And they’ve added the carrying capacity by 12,000 pounds. It’s absurd and they’re right. So what we’re trying to do is educate them all. That this is what you do and there is four-wheel drive tractors that got 400 horsepower to run on those, which is just have our super singles, less compaction and pull more, better fuel-mile, fuel economy, everything. So that’s what we’ve been doing out in the field and that’s been driving to the OE, the next part we have to do is drive it to the aftermarket and if we do that, then as an old man it will be a very, very sweet wine. Okay.

John Hrudicka

Management

Hey, Morry, I wanted to elaborate a little bit on this question and touch upon previous question relative to aftermarket and profitability improvement in terms of LSW and the aftermarket. So we need comments about ag being in a downturn and farmers reluctant to buy new equipment. So they are going to be holding onto their existing equipment a little longer, but that will not impede them for looking for an edge relative to productivity gains and improving profitability, they’re businessmen in the end. And that’s where LSW enters, so if we can target those farmers that maybe coming up on their tire replacement lifecycle or they understand the big gains that LSW brings relative to productivity and profitability we can target them in pull both now the wheel and the tire through aftermarket. So what does this do for us? One, our profit margins or gross margins are higher in aftermarket. Now, we’re pulling the wheel. We’re traditionally we’re only pulling the tire. So this is going to be a very specific strategy for us in 2015, not only to grow sales but to grow profitability. Robert Franklin – Prudential Financial: Is there a rule of thumb that you can maybe give us where you could say, look if you just replace these old tire with new tire like, I would say, look if you just replace this old tire with the new tire like I would do on like, or it is going to cost blank, if you replaces the old tire with the LSW set it’s going to cost this and – but it’s going to be a X number a year payback?

John Hrudicka

Management

Maybe, I could address that question, because we are actually addressing that as we speak because one of the challenges that we see, especially in this downturn is the farmers’ willingness to spend more money. And we’re actually going to quantify the value proposition associated with LSW so that becomes a much easier decision for the farmer to make, because all of the attributes that Morry has talked about and Paul is talked about in terms of fuel economy, productivity, getting the fields – between fields faster, all of those productivity gains have a dollar value associated with those with them. And we’re going to quantify this so it makes that decision so much easier for the farmer in terms of making the purchase. Robert Franklin – Prudential Financial: Okay, would you share that with us when you’re done with it?

John Hrudicka

Management

We certainly can share the concept, yeah. Robert Franklin – Prudential Financial: Okay, thank you.

John Hrudicka

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to now turn the conference back over to Maurice Taylor for any closing remarks.

Maurice Taylor

CEO

Thanks, everybody. We appreciate it, and we’ll talk to you in the future hopefully. Ciao.