Earnings Labs

Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc. (TSLX)

Q1 2024 Earnings Call· Thu, May 2, 2024

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc. Q1 2024 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Cami VanHorn, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Cami VanHorn

Analyst

Thank you. Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind our listeners that remarks made during the call may contain forward-looking statements. Statements other than statements of historical facts made during this call may constitute forward-looking statements and are not guarantees of future performance or results and involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of a number of factors, including those described from time to time in Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc. filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company assumes no obligation to update any such forward-looking statements. Yesterday, after the market closed, we issued our earnings press release for the first quarter ended March 31, 2024, and posted a presentation to the Investor Resources section of our website, www.sixthstreetspecialtylending.com. The presentation should be reviewed in conjunction with our Form 10-Q filed yesterday with the SEC. Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc.'s earnings release is also available on our website under the Investor Resources section. Unless noted otherwise, all performance figures mentioned in today's prepared remarks are as of and for the first quarter ended March 31, 2024. As a reminder, this call is being recorded for replay purposes. I will now turn the call over to Joshua Easterly, Chief Executive Officer of Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc.

Joshua Easterly

Analyst

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. With us today are our President, Bo Stanley; and our CFO, Ian Simmonds. For our call today, I will review our first quarter highlights and pass it over to Bo to discuss activity in the portfolio. Ian will review our financial performance in more detail, and I will conclude with final remarks before opening the call to Q&A. After market closed yesterday, we reported first quarter adjusted net investment income of $0.58 per share or an annualized return on equity of 13.6% and adjusted net income of $0.52 per share or an annualized return on equity of 12.3%. As presented in our financial statements, our Q1 net investment income and net income per share, inclusive of the unwind of the noncash accrued capital gains incentive fee expense or $0.01 per share higher. The difference between this quarter's net investment income and net income was driven by $0.09 per share of net unrealized gains from the impact of tighter credit spreads on the valuation of our investments, $0.14 per share on net unrealized losses from portfolio company-specific events and $0.03 per share of unrealized losses from the reversal of prior period unrealized gains related to investment realizations and $0.03 per share of realized gains from investment sales. With these results in mind, I'd like to start by circling back to two remarks I made on previous earnings calls in February. First, the BDC sector is at peak earnings. And second, the tail within portfolios is getting longer. On the first comment, we reported another strong quarter from an earnings perspective as net investment income continued to benefit from higher interest rates. Q1 was the first time in 8 quarters or since the start of the rate hiking cycle that we experienced a…

Robert Stanley

Analyst

Thanks, Josh. I'd like to start by sharing some observations on the broader market backdrop. In particular, the purpose and importance of direct lending in today's investing landscape. Through the first quarter of 2024, public and private debt markets welcomed an increase in demand for financing solutions after a historically low level of transaction volume in 2023. Access to the broadly syndicated market has improved, providing some borrowers with an option between public and private financing solutions. With both markets open for business, competition has generally increased compared to this time last year. However, we remain highly selective and where we transact to make certain we over earn our cost of capital. Our omnichannel sourcing capabilities has contributed to a robust and building pipeline of opportunities that rely upon the structures and features available only in the private credit markets. We believe the current environment underscores the value proposition of private credit for borrowers looking for more than the cheapest cost of financing. Direct lending provides creative solutions, certainty in pricing, stability through market volatility and structural flexibility such as delayed draw features. All of these components differentiates the private credit markets from the BSL market and reinforce the importance of solutions we provide to the middle market companies. Our investments in Equinox during the quarter highlights our differentiated capabilities as we stepped in to provide an alternative solution to accompany with a complicated capital structure. As part of the transaction, Sixth Street led an agency had a $1.2 billion first lien term loan and to a lesser degree, participated in a $575 million second lien term loan. SLX committed $47.9 million and $2.1 million in these loans, respectively, in support of the company's refinancing of existing debt. This investment is also representative of the increase in opportunities we are…

Ian Simmonds

Analyst

Thank you, Bo. For Q1, we generated adjusted net investment income per share of $0.58 and adjusted net income per share of $0.52. Total investments were $3.4 billion, up 3% from the prior quarter as a result of net funding activity. Total principal debt outstanding at quarter end was $1.9 billion and net assets were $1.6 billion or $17.17 per share prior to the impact of the supplemental dividend that was declared yesterday. Since the start of the rate hiking cycle, 2 years ago, we have successfully grown net asset value per share by 5.6% from a trough of $16.27 in Q2 of 2022 to $17.17 as at quarter end. Additionally, net asset value per share is now back above the pre rate hike level of $16.88 as of March 31, 2022, and is $0.01 below our historical high of $17.18. It has been a very busy year -- start to the year as we completed several capital markets transactions, including a bond offering, an equity raise and a revolving credit facility extension. Starting off in early January, we improved our funding mix and liquidity profile through a $350 million long 5-year bond offering. In March, we executed a small equity raise to take advantage of attractive new investment opportunities while remaining below the top end of our target leverage range of 1.25x debt to equity. Consistent with the framework we've outlined in the past, we issued equity above net asset value and deployed the new capital raised into assets generating estimated returns that exceed our calculated cost of capital. We'll spend a moment to walk through this math, starting with the assumption that our cost of equity is 9%, which was sourced from Bloomberg. Based on this assumption, we can back into the required return on new assets by…

Joshua Easterly

Analyst

Thank you, Ian. I'd like to close our prepared remarks here by encouraging our shareholders to participate and vote for upcoming annual and special meetings on May 23. Consistent with previous years, we are seeking shareholder approval to issue shares below net asset value, effective for the upcoming 12 months. To be clear, to date, we have never issued shares below net asset value under prior shareholder authorization granted to us for each of the past 7 years. We have no current plans to do so. We merely view this authorization as an important tool for value creation and financial flexibility and periods of market volatility. As evidenced by the last 10-plus years since our initial public offering, our bar for raising equity is high. We've only raised equity when trading above net asset value on a very disciplined basis. So we would only exercise this authorization to issue shares below net asset value as there are sufficiently high risk-adjusted return opportunities that would ultimately be accretive to our shareholders through overreading our cost of capital in any associated dilution. If anyone has questions on this topic, please don't hesitate to reach out to us. We have also provided a presentation which walks through this analysis in the Investor Resources section of our website. We hope you find the supplemental information helpful as a way of providing a clear rationale for providing the company and this access to this important tool. As a final comment for today's call, I wanted to share my thoughts on the recent press focus on the perceived systemic risk in private credit. I would suspect that this narrative largely comes from participants that have lost market share and the associated fee streams from the growth of private credit. Clearly, private credit has been a disruptive…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from Brian McKenna of Citizens JMP.

Brian Mckenna

Analyst

My first question is on the trajectory of adjusted NII. It stepped down $2.5 million sequentially in the quarter. So what was the biggest driver of that? I know you added one company to nonaccrual status during the period. So does that contribute to the step down at all? And then how much did tighter spreads impacted on a per share basis? And I'm just trying to get a sense of a good jumping off point for NII in 2Q and beyond.

Joshua Easterly

Analyst

Yes. Great. Thanks, It's a good question. So the non-pool was as at the end of the quarter, so it had very little to no impact on NII. And I think the drivers of NII [indiscernible] a small impact, I would call it 3 things. One is Base rates were down 5 basis points of small amount quarter-over-quarter. So the curve -- although the curve is up and it's higher for longer, the curve was downward sloping. So that's a piece of it. Spreads had a very small impact as well. So yield and advertise investments went from, I think, it was down 20 basis points quarter-over-quarter, in which 5 of that was base rate -- impact of base rate. So 15 basis points. And then the rest was just kind of episodic fees, which I think again laid out. So when we think about our business, I think we still feel very comfortable with our guidance on adjusted NII for the year, which was, Ian.

Ian Simmonds

Analyst

That was the 13.4% NII.

Joshua Easterly

Analyst

[indiscernible] NII was 2.27% million. So I think we still feel very comfortable with that.

Brian Mckenna

Analyst

Yes. Okay. Got it. And then maybe just a follow-up. So spreads have clearly tightened here over the past several months. And if I look at new floating rate commitments in the quarter, spreads declined about 100 bps on average from the fourth quarter. So I guess my question is bigger picture around originations and just with spreads where they are in more liquidity broadly in both public and private credit markets. How are you making sure you're getting the right economics for the risk you're taking today, specifically as we move further into the current cycle?

Joshua Easterly

Analyst

Yes. Again, I think these are really good questions. I think the easiest way to see the economic value of what we're providing to shareholders is actually -- you see the equity raise this quarter. So yields this quarter, I think we went through the math clearly, but yields this quarter were somewhere between yield average life 11.5% and 14% on an average life basis with the swap curve. And that will bring ROEs similar into that range compared to our cost of equity of 9%. So even in this spread type environment, you've seen -- you're seeing, I think, value to our shareholders vis-a-vis cost of equity. Look, we were clear, I think the good news for our top shareholders is we were one of the few public BDCs that had capital available to invest in the last vintage. And most definitely, because of that, we're going to have a portfolio that kind of over earns. But even in this most recent quarter vintage, we are -- we have the ability to significantly overearn cost of capital and provide value to our shareholders.

Brian Mckenna

Analyst

Yes. Okay. I'll leave it there.

Joshua Easterly

Analyst

Let me round up the point, I think it's helpful. Just because spreads have declined doesn't mean that we're not providing significant value to our shareholders. You could clearly see that even in this quarter's vintage given our cost of equity.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will be coming from Maxwell Fritscher of Truist.

Maxwell Fritscher

Analyst

I'm calling in for Mark Hughes. Kind of along the lines of Brian's question. With this higher competition, more capital being provided, are you seeing any companies becoming more comfortable with increasing their M&A activity? And if so, how do you see this shaking out throughout the year?

Joshua Easterly

Analyst

Yes. Look, I would say -- as the force -- I would expect activity levels generally to be up. So I don't think we saw a little bit of that in Q1, when you look at Alteryx, for example, which was a take private you saw [indiscernible] Co, which was an -- M&A, which was a portfolio company, which was a strategic investor owned by a sponsor buying an another strategic asset. So you saw a little bit of that this quarter. I think as volatility in the rates markets subside, and as rates come down a little bit, I think you'll see more activity. I think that more activity will have to impact our business. One is, it will hopefully increase portfolio churn on the margin, which will drive additional economics that we haven't seen. It's kind of dried up that's been historic driver of our return on equity. But I think you -- if you see activity levels, you'll see that portfolio churn, which will drive through economics for our business. And then there will obviously be more activity on the front end of things to do. So Bo, anything to add there?

Robert Stanley

Analyst

No, I expect to see M&A activity continue to strengthen after a pretty anemic couple of years, both because of better financing costs but also because equity valuations are coming. There's more parity between buyers and sellers. Public equity markets have strengthened. And also a lot of businesses have grown into some of their valuations. So you're going to see better assets come to market over the next few quarters, and we're starting to see that in our pipeline today.

Maxwell Fritscher

Analyst

That's very helpful. And Josh, you mentioned last quarter, and correct me if I misunderstood, but you're hopeful for more opportunities in '24 to strategically invest in good companies with bad balance sheets. Any developments on this front thus far?

Joshua Easterly

Analyst

We even asked you to ask that question, let me ask to ask that question. That Equinox is a pretty good example of that. Equinox is a portfolio company of two strong sponsors related [indiscernible] partners. It was a company that was obviously COVID-impacted, but it's one of the premier companies in the fitness space. It really only has one competitor and is a great company with a great brand and great user economics, but obviously COVID happened and [indiscernible] business and balance sheet got complicated. And so we led a $1.2 billion senior secured first lien facility in connection with the new settling facilities by the sponsor and others to refinance that probably to the loan capital structure. We held roughly half of the investment. And so we were let we partnered with [indiscernible] and so that was a business, an opportunity that we're super excited about. And then it was complicated with our private equity due diligence. And will come right in the middle of good company, bad balance sheet that needed [indiscernible] complicated, but we really like both the sponsors in that business. we're big stewards of that business and supportive and the management team [indiscernible]. So we're excited. We think we're going to be -- given the rate environment and the higher prolonger narrative, there's going to be many of those same situations that, I think, go right in our wheelhouse, where we're going to have to provide capital -- where we have an opportunity to provide capital to generate stronger adjusted returns for our shareholders.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will be coming from Finian O'Shea of WFS.

Finian O'Shea

Analyst

Josh, on your sort of the segueing there, but on your opening comments on the firming of the rate curve and the expected dispersion we'll see -- is that happening in real time, say, in response to the rate curve? Are you seeing reorgs or LMEs and so forth and on the -- in private credit. And on the flip side, should that translate to a more abundant deployment opportunity?

Joshua Easterly

Analyst

Let me hear [indiscernible] I think hopefully you're on the West, but we're kind of just waiting on there, [Technical Difficulty] your question. So I think our theme has been that higher longer is kind of the two [Technical Difficulty], the first [indiscernible] is companies are going -- some companies are going to have problems in that environment, both due to demand, we should monitor [Technical Difficulty] demand for the products and services. The second is their balance sheet and their cost of increasing most definitely their interest costs. And so there is most definitely going to be issues. Hopefully, I think in general, those -- and that will cause dispersions between -- and net income and to economic return. And we've seen that a little bit on that margin. [indiscernible], we put it out there like nonequivalent well for us at fair value 1.1% anthology, which is we [Technical Difficulty], we put out on accrual, we took the work down. That is still paying cash, by the way. That will still pay cash, I think the maturity that will be the cash-on-cash returns are like in the 30s on compared to fair value. That should be a tailwind on net asset value as we're taking that into an amortized costs. But there are real tales that pop up to be [Technical Difficulty] manageable for the industry. And given how much capital the industry holds, it shouldn't create any existential risk for the industry. On the [Technical Difficulty] provide a great opportunity for those who can deploy capital into those companies that help facilitate those LMEs or those restructurings like Equinox. So I think its a doublet, I think in the [indiscernible] you were good on credit, which we think we are and that we -- you have capital deployed either because the market trusts you where you can raise more capital, which they historically have or you have excess balance sheet plus you have the requisite skill set to actually execute those transactions, which we most definitely have, which will create good deployment opportunities. And so that's the Goldilocks, we think we're in that. We think we have all those pieces of the [indiscernible] -- but we think it's going to be a really interesting environment for the next couple of years given higher for longer. it's going to -- and capital is allocated in some ways given low rates that this will be a good opportunity to participate in the opportunity set. But I think you need capital, which a lot of the industry doesn't have given more trades, you need the requisite skill set and then you need a clean portfolio.

Finian O'Shea

Analyst

Very good. And a follow-up, the -- looks like the last-out leverage has been somewhat declining the last handful of quarters at least. You're seeing if this is market-related or portfolio-related are you managing it down and if we should expect that to continue and what it means for returns?

Joshua Easterly

Analyst

Yes. Look, what I would say is -- we have -- we think on the margin, there are opportunities that today is in larger companies, larger capital structure. And those companies, given how big those credit facilities are, it's hard to club together somebody taking a first our revolver. And so by number, my guess is that's going down given what we think the opportunity set is. But that will kind of go up and down. That's a combination of, I think, two things. One is the large capital structure and the second thing is banks are still capital constrained. And we see that with a lot of our bank partners are [indiscernible]. So it doesn't have a huge [indiscernible] have a huge impact on economic returns. But it's really those two things, which is where we see the opportunity that is and how big they're positioned.

Operator

Operator

And our next question will be coming from Robert Dodd of Raymond James.

Robert Dodd

Analyst

Hope you can hear me okay. On the comment Josh you made, the tails going to get fatter. I mean the longer rates stay up, obviously, it's going to get longer and I mean -- but look, your portfolio pick went up a little bit sequentially. It looks like that was mainly new investments, though, our unfunded commitments ticked up again, it looks like it's making new investments, but it's hard to tell. Can you give us any color on are you seeing incremental revolver draws more broadly? I mean, obviously, there's a couple of assets, right? Astra, for example, you just put on [indiscernible] having some you have some credit issues. But are there any emerging signs in the portfolio that this hire for longer is starting to create pressure in terms of liquidity and liquidity leads?

Joshua Easterly

Analyst

No. And just coverage would actually flatten out the increase. Earnings, I think on a same-store basis grew about 10% quarter-over-quarter. Revenues grew by about 5%. I think the -- the answer is no. I think the -- I think some of the unfunded commitment increased quarter-over-quarter was all tariff-setting where they're going to be -- with going through a process to -- with a [indiscernible] with the bond orders to call those bonds in. But no, broadly speaking, we don't haven't seen that pressure. And then obviously, from a [indiscernible] perspective, we reserve from funding commitments in that close to 3x post bond maturity of liquidity for unfunded commitment. So how does the in stress, like broad-based stress, interest coverage was kind of bottomed out as on the rise, given the earnings growth plus the combination of the forward curve, although higher for longer, it's still declining. So no.

Robert Dodd

Analyst

Second one, if I can. On the other fee income, obviously, it was low again this quarter, not a huge surprise. But if we go higher for longer, if there's less activity there, are we in -- do you think there's a risk that in relatively prolonged period of lower other fee income from the portfolio given, obviously, the less activity, the older the assets get -- the older they get, the less fee income they generate if they do anything anyway. So is there a little bit of a low cycle here that could progress all the way through '24, maybe even 25% until the portfolio gets recycled? Or is it just transitory?

Joshua Easterly

Analyst

Yes. I think it's a great question. Hard to model. What I would say is I think there's us in the industry. First, historically, we've had more of the type of income I think -- so I think we can agree on that. So -- but the question is, is it -- how does that impact us? I think when you look at our portfolio, unlike the rest of the industry, we were actually able to deploy post rate hiking cycle. And so we have more business in '22 and '23. And so that was a higher spread environment. So I think you're going to -- either one of the two things will happen is, one is we'll hold those assets for longer, which would overearn at churn, we can all agree spreads coming in a little bit, which will create income. So we have 43% of the of the portfolio was invested in the second half of 2022. So I think we were -- given how we manage the business and how focused we've been on being good allocators of capital, the market has rewarded us with the ability to give us more capital, which allow us to view this vicious cycle. It allow us to invest in '22-'23 vintage in a higher spread environment, which my guess will at some point churn. I think you have to split out between the industry and us, and we just have more '22, '23 vintage, and we all agree [indiscernible].

Operator

Operator

Our next question will be coming from Erik Zwick of Hovde Gr Group.

Erik Zwick

Analyst

First question is maybe a 2-part question. Bo noted that competition you guys have talked about it in subsequent answer, so the competition has increased since last year. And I'm curious if that is manifesting primarily just in compressed spreads and on the pricing side? Or if you're seeing anything on the structure side as well. So that's the first question. And I guess the second would be one your slides, you note that the for your portfolio, the weighted average number of covenants per credit agreement is 1.8%. I'm curious if that has changed over time or if that's been pretty consistent as well.

Joshua Easterly

Analyst

It doesn't -- it most definitely will lead on the margin into the document. Documents are so better than relative well documents. But it doesn't just stop at the door of spreads. So but we still feel comfortable with the overall package. And then I would say there is a little bit of a tale of 2 cities. We look at seeing the opportunity set up market. And on upmarket, there is those documents, there might be a few or less financial covenants. And so -- but that is a -- we're making a choice between the trade-off between credit quality side of the company and protections. And we think the relative value is still very good there. Just to size it up. Not everybody -- there's a handful of people who you write $500 million check. there's a lot of people that can write $40 million to $50 million check. And so in this moment in time, it always won't be that case. We've moved up market. You can see that in our underlying EBITDA -- average EBITDA portfolio company that's that fine metric. I think it's gone from $35 million a couple of years ago to 90%, Ian what's the average now?

Ian Simmonds

Analyst

It's over 90%.

Joshua Easterly

Analyst

Over 90%. So anything to add there, Bo?

Robert Stanley

Analyst

The only thing I would add is we continue to only invest in situations where we have control or influence on the documentation. And with competition, you're going to see with your documentation, but we still have -- we still control that and tend to only play in situations where we believe the document still have the protections that we need as investors. So we have seen losing of terms certainly from 18 to 24 months ago when docs get really tight, but they're still adequate to protect our capital.

Erik Zwick

Analyst

I appreciate the detailed commentary there. And I guess just the only remaining question for me. And you just noted the ability to write large checks and if I look at Slide 6 and average investment size in your portfolio. If I look at it, excluding the structured credit investments, it's actually down a little bit year-over-year. However, if the then includes the structured credit, it's up year-over-year. So just curious about the kind of the divergence there and what's transpired on the structured credit side over the past year or so?

Joshua Easterly

Analyst

Yes. The divergence as we've increased diversity in our portfolio for sure, over time. And our capital base is relatively fixed in SLX. And so in participating in larger deals across the platform, but our capital base is relatively fixed in Natural [indiscernible] we've been focused on increasing diversity. So I hope -- I think I got that question.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will be coming from Melissa Wedel of JPMorgan.

Melissa Wedel

Analyst

Most of my questions have already been answered, but I wanted to follow up on your comment, Josh, about the opportunity set right now. You're seeing it really with the larger companies and bigger capital structures. Based on Ian's comments, it seems a very detailed analysis of what the return threshold is for new investments and where you were able to source -- what you're able to source in the first quarter. Certainly, it looks like you're able to clear that threshold by a couple of hundred basis points, at least in the first quarter. But as competition increases, I guess the question is, do you see the opportunity set evolving more in the more complex deals? And you talked about a couple of those that you got done in the first quarter. Is that where the economics are? Is that where we should think about you being involved primarily in the next few quarters?

Joshua Easterly

Analyst

Let me tell you the power. I think this is at the heart of our platform. I think this is and now part of how we think about this, investing in how we [indiscernible]. So I mean I may go down around a hole and then you can pull me up for a second. So [indiscernible] I think people know $77 billion or $75-plus [indiscernible] Management. 600-plus employees. We have people sitting across industries and verticals and focus on the companies all types in all parts of their life cycle. And that includes by sector, by size and then by we're there on the life cycle from growth restructuring. And the power of our platform is that we can go between on a relative value. So between all those factors, from size of the company, to where they are on their life cycle to what sectors we think are interesting. And at some point, sectors are throwing out for no reason, and we think they're interesting and we can deploy capital there. Think of that as energy, which our returns have been very good. At one part, it was retail consumer. And then software, we have a differentiated view. And so we're really a relative value fire across a big top of the funnel. That is our business model. And so the answer is I don't know the difficult part of capitalism -- capital that was working is when there's excess returns capital flow. And so you kind of have to keep checking and diving through the opportunity set, that is the power of the business. And so it might be retail -- for 6 months or 9 months, it might be software as a services. It might be industrial. It might be energy. It might be a small cap. It might be a large cap. The power of the platform that what we're delivering to investors is our ability to cross those opportunities that where we have a closer to a platform where we can collaborate, where we can deliver that to people. And so that is what we have built for people. That's what we'll continue to lean on and so I know across environments, across opportunities that we're just not a [indiscernible] business, and that is where the durability of the returns that come from.

Melissa Wedel

Analyst

Okay. I appreciate that overview and reviewing of the opportunistic nature of what you guys are able to do. Maybe I should have rephrased my question a little bit just in terms of really sort of the pipeline on complicated investments and that idea of the good company, that balance sheet and a higher for longer impairment or you expecting more of that.

Joshua Easterly

Analyst

I would hope so. I mean, I look at my macro view is it's difficult for the set to pivot. We've been saying this for a long time if that hasn't pivoted and that's going to cause stress and capital structures. And so my hope is that will be -- that like Equinox, that will be interesting. We did a depth in Q1, which is public for $0.99, which is a retail business. That liquidation is going very well. And so we like the opportunity that my hope that is kind of right into the -- that's trying to go now of the platform. You got me all excited about what the platform delivers for value-add. So sorry, I had to go down the rabbit hole.

Operator

Operator

And our next question will be coming from Bryce Rowe of B. Riley.

Bryce Rowe

Analyst

Wanted to maybe just continue on this theme of churn within the portfolio and just churn generally within the industry. You all have clearly focused on putting money to work in '22 and '23 vintages and addressing any kind of maturities that we -- that you have in '24 and '25 and those are now kind of more limited. So if you could kind of talk about or size up the opportunity from an origination perspective versus what we might see from a repayment perspective within the portfolio and what that might mean for kind of net portfolio growth as we look forward.

Joshua Easterly

Analyst

I would -- on the margin, I would think net portfolio growth is again hard because we're very kind of opportunities that driven. But I would say, on the margin, payments will increase because of our vintage of '22 and '23 -- and I would say on the margin, I would expect our balance sheet to remain stable and not grow as significantly as it did in the last 18 months. That would be my get look -- we want to lean in environments where there's really, really high risk-adjusted returns. We could agree that with '22, '23 and grow the balance sheet, and not everybody could do that given their access to capital. We did that. And then which will mean that portfolio term will increase on a gross basis. On that basis, the opportunity is that it's going to be marginally less. And so I think that means that our balance sheet will be relatively stable, maybe slightly growing, but it's not going to grow as the ended on a lasting few months.

Bryce Rowe

Analyst

And then maybe one more for me on the capital structure. I mean you've been opportunistic in terms of raising both debt and equity. As you -- and you've talked about kind of having prefunded the '24 notes. Do you think about layering in another -- I guess, another round of notes, given how open debt capital markets are today, just giving yourself that much more liquidity or available liquidity as we think about capital structure.

Joshua Easterly

Analyst

Yes. I think we talked about this a little bit. I think it's a good question. I actually think on the margin we hold 2 months liquidity today. So if you kind of think about -- if you look at the post [indiscernible] of the '24 notes. We have about $750 million of liquidity. And we can't give it or the constraints debt-to-equity, which a range of 0.9 to 1.25. We can't really use that liquidity. If you don't think we're growing the net asset value of the business through new equity raises. And so if we were to -- our choices would be to give back unfunded commitments to banks, which I don't think we want to do because that's a low cost of capital if we were to raise more bonds. I just -- I don't see -- we have -- and that liquidity, I think, is very valuable and it's really good insurance but it's limited, given the constraint of our 1.25 debt-to-equity and how our capital looks today. So I don't see us and have an economic cost to shareholders. So I don't see us doing a bond deal unless we think we can grow growth assets, which will require us to grow through an equity raise because we just have a whole into trait that's an economic cost to shareholders.

Operator

Operator

And I'm showing no further questions. I would now like to turn the conference back to Josh for closing remarks.

Joshua Easterly

Analyst

Look, I appreciate the time as people are heading into summer and the weather is turning. I know people get to spend that with their family and enjoy your summer will obviously be back in contact at time for August. Please vote in our shareholder meeting. It's a democratic process as well as those different product processes are really, really important. But thank you for your time, and we're always around to answer questions. And I thought today's questions were really, really good. So thanks for the analyst community for putting in the work.

Operator

Operator

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.