Earnings Labs

TriMas Corporation (TRS)

Q4 2011 Earnings Call· Mon, Feb 27, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the TriMas Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2011 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Sherry Lauderback. Please go ahead.

Sherry Lauderback

Management

Thank you. Thank you and welcome to the TriMas Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2011 Earnings Call. Participating on the call today are Dave Wathen, TriMas' President and CEO; and Mark Zeffiro, our Chief Financial Officer. Dave and Mark will review TriMas' fourth quarter and 2011 full year results, as well as provide our 2012 outlook. After our prepared remarks, we'll then open the call up to your questions. In order to assist you with the review of our results, we've included a press release and PowerPoint presentation on our company website, www.trimascorp.com under the Investors section. In addition, a replay of this call will be available later today by calling (888) 203-1112 with the replay pass code of 5496282. Before we get started I would like to remind everyone that our comments today, which are intended to supplement your understanding of TriMas, may contain forward-looking statements that are inherently subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our Form 10-K for a list of factors that could cause our results to differ from those anticipated in any such forward-looking statements. Also we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements except as required by law. We would also direct your attention to our website where considerably more information may be found. At this point, I would like to turn the call over to Dave Wathen, TriMas' President and CEO. Dave.

David Wathen

Management

Thanks, Sherry. Mark, Sherry and I had the privilege of representing more than 4,000 people, who make TriMas perform well, and were each glad to have done our part in producing another strong year for our company. And for our audience on this call, we certainly appreciate your interest and involvement. I'll start with overview, Mark will share financial and segment highlights plus key 2012 metrics for our outlook and then I'll summarize and we'll gladly take your questions. Going to Slide 4, I'm sure you have seen our headline by now for 2011 with sales up 20% and earnings up 40%. We accomplished this by executing our playbook. Our structured operating processes control what matters while avoiding slowing down the people who run each business day-to-day. Our success rate in implementing growth programs and productivity projects was high in 2011. I have often described how we identify short-term risks and opportunities in each business and then rework to mitigate the risks and capture the opportunities and in 2011 we did very well achieving the high end of this band of performance. Markets were choppy in 2011 requiring continual fast responses to capitalize on the ups and downs of demand. The diversity of our business portfolio helped us, such as several of our businesses including Lamons, Norris and Arrow generated all-time record sales and profit levels. We also benefited from our decisions to increase our growth investments. Decisions such as locating monogram sales engineers on the ground in Asia, which produced profitable shipments into China in 2011, expanding our fastener sales coverage in Lamons, so that our South Texas bolt acquisition has now doubled in volume, Arrow's focus on products, used in shale fields and the folks at Norris rapidly assimilating their Huntsville acquisition. We've also kept after our cost…

A. Zeffiro

Management

Thank you, Dave, and Good morning. Let's start with a quick summary of our fourth quarter results on Slide 7. Our fourth quarter sales were almost $260 million, a record sales level for the fourth quarter and a 22% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2010. This was our seventh quarter of double-digit sales increases with 5 of our 6 segments growing year-over-year. Consistent with the first 3 quarters, this growth was a result of market share gains, successful integration of recent acquisitions, new product sales and geographic expansion. Across the company our strategies, investments in growth projects are working. Our Q4 operating profit improved more than 40%, compared to Q4, 2010, primarily as a result of higher sales and our continued focus on productivity. Operating profit margin was 10.4%, an increase of 160 basis points compared to the fourth quarter of 2010 excluding special items. Fourth quarter 2011 income from continuing operations was $7.1 million or $0.20 per diluted share, compared to $7.6 million or $0.22 per diluted share during the fourth quarter of 2010. While operating profit levels were higher during the quarter, this decline was attributed to higher income tax expense. In our efforts to continuously improve the company we incurred incremental tax expense directly related to the tax restructuring efforts in Q4, 2011, compared to a Q4, 2010 benefit due to changes in valuation allowances. Excluding special items, fourth quarter income from continuing operations would have been $8.7 million, or $0.25 per diluted share, an increase of 14%. We also generated $51 million, in free cash flow during the quarter, more than double of Q4, 2010, while funding new CapEx and working capital needs to support our current and future growth. Moving onto Slide 8, 2011 full year results. Overall, we are pleased with our…

David Wathen

Management

Thanks, Mark. The chart on Slide 20 shows our strategic aspirations and these have been consistent for several years now. Mark just provided you with our current outlook for 2012 which lines up well with these aspirations. I'll reiterate what you've heard from us many times. We only count on what we feel we have line of sight to achieve. Our markets are still choppy with many short-term ups and downs. We are certainly seeing some strength where you would expect oil, Shale fields; Aircraft build rates, consumers in Asia and general industrial demand. But with US GDP expected to be 2% or 3%, our upside comes from executing the growth programs well and achieving productivity to fund those programs. We completely depend on the people who operate our businesses so we strive to be sure our people have the skills, tools and clear goals to achieve our aspirations. To enhance this we've just installed an updated long-term incentive program for people of TriMas who run our businesses as Mark mentioned. Its performance based and linked directly to achieving our aspirations. 2012 is a year we're investing in the future which means some of our spending rates will be a little higher. Capital expenditures will be at the higher end of our 3% to 4% range, as we need to add capacity in packaging and aerospace. Our new long-term incentive system, while vital isn't free, plus we are spending on restructuring in several businesses and on acquisition integration. Of course, I view all this as good news, because these actions keep TriMas growing and improving. We've evolved to the point that we can and should spend for now in the future, so that we produce solid near-term and long-term results. Now I would like to share some of our key…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will hear from Walt Liptak with Barrington Research.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

Congratulations on a nice quarter.

David Wathen

Management

Thank you, Walt.

A. Zeffiro

Management

Thanks.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

I wanted to ask about -- a little bit about the guidance. First of all, the revenue growth that you put out there, is that including acquisitions?

David Wathen

Management

It's -- including the completed acquisitions that we have at this point in time, which to be clear includes Arminak.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

Right so Arminak and Innovative will be contributing incremental revenue.

A. Zeffiro

Management

That's correct.

David Wathen

Management

They are in the guidance, Walt, as you asked.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

Okay. Well, if you just look at organic growth, what kind of organic growth rate are you looking for?

A. Zeffiro

Management

Well, if you look at the organic growth rate that we achieved in 2011, it was about 14% as a company. We're expecting about half that rate or a little bit less in terms of those implications. We've given you a range that is kind of mid-single digits kind of number in terms of organic growth, Walt.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

Okay. Okay, just to be clear the revenue guidance that you talked about was 7% to 10%?

A. Zeffiro

Management

That's correct.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

But it looks like acquisitions are going to add somewhere around $80 million to $90 million?

A. Zeffiro

Management

We already had Innovative in part of your baseline, so yes that's correct -- and the $60 million with of the top line that would be added if here would be obviously on a full run rate basis associated with Arminak, but of course we've missed a couple of first periods here in terms of top line for the year.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

Okay. All right, got it. And with the Innovative Molding acquisition, I guess, you talked about acquisition revenue synergies as you bring the product to the further East or the Midwest and the East Coast. Where you on those initiatives?

David Wathen

Management

All right. They're going well. Than we as -- in my -- in our last operating review that was a pretty decent list of programs in process. They're typical of us that call them a big win as $1 million or $2 million and it takes a while for them to ramp up, but I'm real happy with the way that's rolling out.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

Okay. So that business should grow in...

David Wathen

Management

You should -- it has grown and it should continue to grow, yes.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

Okay. The -- and just a couple of items like corporate expense, what's the outlook for 2012?

A. Zeffiro

Management

Absent the discussion that we had, with respect to LPI, well, the spend level is flat to down.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

Okay. And what about the tax rate like GAAP taxes?

A. Zeffiro

Management

GAAP taxes were modeling 34% as our claiming rate.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

Okay. And then the EPS guidance the $0.10 for incentive comp awards and restructuring that's in the number $1.75 to $1.85, right?

A. Zeffiro

Management

That's correct. Yes.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

Okay. Can you give us an idea what kind of restructuring expense you are expecting?

A. Zeffiro

Management

Also restructuring expenses I've already transpired to this point, which was related obviously to the larger sequence set of businesses.

Operator

Operator

We'll hear next from Robert Kosowsky with Sidoti.

Robert Kosowsky

Analyst

First of all, I was wondering what the leading indicator businesses are telling you right now about just U.S. and European growth?

A. Zeffiro

Management

What I pointed to their Rob is, the obviously, we look at the packaging business being a good leading indicator here and Q4-on-Q4 comparison for the packaging historical businesses actually showed an uptick. So from my perspective, that's a good we feel trails line for at least entering 2012, but as you all know, those things can change pretty quickly.

Robert Kosowsky

Analyst

Okay. Any comments...

David Wathen

Management

We're little pessimistic on Europe, we're more than a little pessimistic on Europe. And we certainly in the industrial part of that business, it dropped down last year and we're modeling that it’s going to stay down.

Robert Kosowsky

Analyst

Okay. So, contraction from I guess, one half 2011's run rate I guess in Europe, right?

David Wathen

Management

Yes. That's the way it feels. And thus hard to see -- it's hard to see an indicator that's going to make that pickup.

Robert Kosowsky

Analyst

Okay. And this includes -- your outlook includes or your commentary includes what you've seen so far in January and February too, right?

David Wathen

Management

Yes.

Robert Kosowsky

Analyst

Okay. And then, regarding the packaging business, so it looks like you've added by close to $100 million of acquired revenue and I'm wondering what cost headwinds are going to be hitting this segment in 2012, just from a purchase accounting and what not. And then also trying to get a better sense as to kind of the potential that we could see in 2013, once you get a lot of these, I guess, cost structure issues and purchase accounting adjustments behind you and where you could see margins trending at 2013 that could deliver nice earnings pop next year.

A. Zeffiro

Management

Dave, you want to talk more strategically on...

David Wathen

Management

There in our comments -- of course we said in our comments that the team at Arminak has a full year track record of 30% revenue growth, good stuff. And it's not an overlap kind of business, I mean it actually brings some product lines that we don't have in Rieke and then vice versa, the customer base for Arminak is different. You also know the product line and the customers are different for Innovative. So, all that I expect to take some time, you want it to happen instantly, it does take some time, you're right, the pop often to the future. But strategically it really has broaden Rieke's product and geographic footprint nicely, so -- customer footprint nicely. So, not -- that's no numbers, but it feels like we will some nice improvement. From a productivity standpoint, we're seeing a lot -- we've got a lean activities underway at -- there were some facility and headquarter moves and that kind of thing that went on in Innovative that's starting to click. The lean initiatives are starting to click. We've got some work to do in manufacturing in Arminak, but we know that going in and that will give us some productivity upside too.

A. Zeffiro

Management

And maybe a bit level -- deeper level precision there for you, Rob, is the integration cost in both these businesses are circa let's call it on a full experience basis somewhere between 3 and 4 tons a share. So that clearly rolls off as you sequence into 2013 and beyond. So to that end the $0.03 to $0.05 of guidance of incremental EPS, there is a good portion of it that is integration cost, but also you should expect to see kind of a doubling level in terms of the EPS effect associated specifically with Arminak and the acquisition activity and integration activities which were rather costly, and Innovative have rolled off. So you will see some incremental benefits in the back half of 2012 as well.

Robert Kosowsky

Analyst

Okay. Do these combined businesses -- that's certainly helpful, do these combined businesses have kind of future normalized operating margin profile in excess of 20% like the core business?

A. Zeffiro

Management

You've got obviously intangibles that are -- and be amortized along the way. If you do it on an EBITDA basis, they are comparable, but slightly dilutive to the Rieke historical businesses.

Robert Kosowsky

Analyst

Okay. So maybe you get to the margin profile on a, I guess, cash basis.

A. Zeffiro

Management

Exactly, Rob. You've got significant number of dollars that are tied up in the intangibles at least for next 5 plus years. But my view of that Rob is the potential is there, but it's a kind of fun horse race about what do expand faster too and spending to get the goal and spending to add capacity and so there is an endpoint out there, but that's what you pay us to do is to balance those things. And this is a growth platform, so we're going to keep the growth level going strong.

Robert Kosowsky

Analyst

Okay. As far as -- one more question on packaging, as far as the CapEx you're adding to Packaging, where is this geographically do you see yourself adding any facilities in the future?

David Wathen

Management

We will add facilities. For a variety of reasons this is not time to announce exactly where, but in Asia for sure and you've heard my comments about customers wanting plants -- supply plants close to them plus duty issues in Asia, crossing boarders and so we're making sure we solve that cost problem. So, yes, we are adding capacity in a new facility in Asia. You'll see us adding capacity in North America and there is kind of tug of war about where is the best place for that right now, it's kind of a fun time though.

Robert Kosowsky

Analyst

Okay, so that capital allocation is still to be determined yet, I guess?

David Wathen

Management

Well, the cost is in our numbers. We don't want a cost to build -- we don't want a cost to build the plant and it's tweaking around the edges now.

Robert Kosowsky

Analyst

Okay, and then for the aerospace business, it looks like revenue is been down for 2 quarters in a row and I know it's quite about the defense side of it and so I'm wondering what you can talk about with how Monogram revenue has been trending over the past 3 quarters or so, and how do you see that progressing into 2012?

A. Zeffiro

Management

Yes, Rob, in my comments you would've heard that, the dollars of sales increase for Monogram business is up nearly $14 million bucks year-on-year with a continuing growing portfolio backlog. So to that end I think we're pretty comfortable that the Monogram core business is operating at an appropriate level.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Steve Barger

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Really busy 2011 in terms of portfolio shaping and capital allocation to obviously good effect, do you think 2012 will be as active in terms of acquisition divestiture?

David Wathen

Management

It could be Steve, I mean, there is -- that never say never. I'm -- we -- the move out of PTC and iBall and into Arminak is important for us. We need some settling time on that.

Steve Barger

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

But obviously you're always looking for...

David Wathen

Management

Yes exactly, we're always looking for -- if we're always for opportunities, we've got to keep the pipeline full of what the potential opportunities are, and I want our success rate on acquisitions, I want us to be known for having a very high success rate on acquisitions. So we will be careful about it, but that said, they're out there and we're keeping after it.

A. Zeffiro

Management

Steve, I would add to this...

Steve Barger

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Yes.

A. Zeffiro

Management

I would add one more data point for you there is, Arminak is a big amount for us. And we focus significantly amount of diligence in understanding what that meant to us. Now only just today but also obviously the implications in the future. We obviously are sensitive to our leverage ratio and Dave and I are committed to long-term continued reduction in our leverage profile. So we're going to live within our means in an appropriate fashion. But in the meantime Dave is driving us to make sure that we have clear winners on our hands when we talk about acquisitions and as such we're very sensitive to that reality.

Steve Barger

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Okay. That's good color. I guess my -- to reframe it, are there a lot of things out there that you can see right now that you would like to do and it's a function of making sure that you're integrating the stuff that you've done already well or is it a function of not having something necessarily in front of you and continuing that process?

A. Zeffiro

Management

I will give you that Steve. We have an active funnel of ideas and touch points that we have with the various businesses. Of course let's go back to the strategic aspirations and where we are deploying growth capital, that's in the packaging, energy and aerospace businesses. As such, we're obviously actively -- active in conversations across that set of portfolio. Now the reality is, let's practically use Dave's words here, and that is -- and a lots of settle time associated with the Rieke business because there is been some pretty sizeable moves and acquisitions there. That doesn't mean the rest of those management teams are capped up.

Steve Barger

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Right. That's good. Okay, and so now I'll just shift more to the CapEx side, it sounds like it's going to be mid to high $40 million range based on your guidance, to support both capacity and growth, what's the payback period typically for a capacity expansion and will those expansion be typically accretive to margin once you get pass the initial investment and ramp up?

A. Zeffiro

Management

Last question first in terms of will it be accretive to margins once we've passed ramp up, the answer is absolutely yes and the typical timeline is anywhere between 2 and 3 years in terms of those relative paybacks.

Steve Barger

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Okay. And in terms...

David Wathen

Management

I learned my lesson early in my career about getting involved with building something and then the customers were supposed to show up, I got taught that isn't the way it works. What's -- luckily, I got taught that early. When we build new capacity, it's because we've got orders and we've already been taken on extra cost to fill orders by running over time and all that kind of thing before we actually do the CapEx. So we hit the ground running where we build the plant.

Steve Barger

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Got it, okay. And Mark obviously you guys have done a great job in terms of getting working cap down, is that sustainable at these levels given the investments that you're looking at right now or does that become a bit of a drag in your planning for 2012?

A. Zeffiro

Management

No. Let's -- I mean that's why we're going to run it. The reality is if you look at some of those businesses they hit record levels, yet some of the businesses still have opportunity to be even better in terms of their overall working capital deployment. So we've got not only opportunities in the existing businesses, but we're also in a process as we did in 2011, where needed we've managed that complexity in appropriate fashion towards our long-term aspiration there being 13% of sales plus or minus.

Steve Barger

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Yes, okay. And last question I'll get back in line. I heard you said the growth rate for Arminak is 30% over the last 4 years which is pretty amazing. But margin profile ex-purchase cost accounting everything did you say that is basically in line or slightly below the consolidate segment?

A. Zeffiro

Management

Slightly below.

Steve Barger

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Slightly below, okay. And with room to tick them up?

A. Zeffiro

Management

That's correct, that's part of the synergies we expect both on the Rieke side of the house, the historical Rieke side of the house but also potentially in the Arminak side of the house.

Steve Barger

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Got it. And just thinking about the acquisition if I look at where you've run in 2011 on the SG&A line in terms of absolute dollars what do you I add in just from a modeling perspective for the acquisition?

A. Zeffiro

Management

Yes. What I would do, I think -- I'll help you the other way and say that kind of levels are mid-teens in this business.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Mark Tobin with ROTH Capital Partners.

Mark Tobin

Analyst · ROTH Capital Partners.

I guess looking at guidance and along the lines of what you're feeling and seeing on the macro environment. Can you walk us through I guess, some examples segment-by-segment, as far as, which ones you're more pessimistic about and also which ones where you think there could be some upside?

David Wathen

Management

Well. We see upside in packaging because of some new contracts, we -- while you don't get to name your customers, we've got some that feel real good for us to grow in Asia in packaging, and therefore, what I call plastic parts. In the steel side of that business, the industrial side of the business, the tail -- pushing against this is Europe. And just -- that mean, it's all advantage it's paint makers and chemical makers who use all kinds of closures on their containers. So ups and downs, but overall up and in fact, it should be a good year. The energy business gets the build out of new facilities that -- and it's Spain and Singapore, Midland is ramping up nicely. And so, all that is a positive, the continuing growth from fasteners going through that channel, is a good thing. So I'm pretty upbeat in overall about that segment. The -- we've got branches in Europe and they definitely see the headwinds, but because while, we're newer there, it's not going to feel so bad as it does in packaging. The Norris and Arrow in engineered products, are -- they had very strong year as last year and the kind of the question is, how much more is there to go after and if you reckon this is the folks of the business, they give you a list of whole lot of things and they give you lot of cautions too. Natural gas prices seem to get be stuck mighty low and that is one of the things that makes us have concern about that. We have done a lot of exporting out of the Norris business quite well and that winds up being a currency question and that's feels like -- yes, I mean, I'm a little cautious about where that's going to go. The Cequent businesses while we don't, we don't push as much on growth, the consumer channel has shown to me surprisingly good strength, driven in the background, what we call consumer, but that's the channel, driven in the background by agriculture and construction. We -- I kind of feel like we've seen the ag recovery that we're going to see, so who knows what's going to come out of this, but we're modeling that it's going to be strong. I pull that all together and then I lay against it, I mean, what do you think for the US economy, I mean, still the consensus seems to be 2% or 3% GDP, so we go after our parts of it. But that feels like a downward pressure on the overall and it's going to make it stay choppy, where it feels good for a while and then it cuts off and back on. So I am not telling you anything you haven't heard from a whole lot of other people that we're going after what we can, but it feels like the overall is still tough after.

A. Zeffiro

Management

Yes. And Mark I would add maybe to additional data points like may be taking one level deeper on that, and that is our Cequent North America businesses had a 13% growth here in 2011, the reality is they took largely a good portion of that from share in our share gains. It takes a while to digest that though the system, so I'm not thinking that, that's a double-digit growth in that business is a sustainable number, it's probably more aligned with that of GDP. And as far as aerospace and defense goes, you're going to have really a double-digit kind of growth number out of our aerospace business. But yet, continued pressures in the defense side of the house, so in terms of how to think that -- think about that one, those 2 things are muddled together, so to speak.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Scott Graham, Jefferies & Company.

Scott Graham

Analyst

I'm sorry about that. My mute function was depressed there. A very nice job on the quarter. I wanted to just understand a little bit better the sales guidance because the gentlemen's earlier question about the acquisition roll through in 2012 seems to kind of get us to the lower end of that range. Is this simply a matter of your guys just trying to keep it measured for now since we're so early in the year?

David Wathen

Management

Of course. I mean, that you could say it in a lot of the different ways. I say in line of sight, while I can always say a lot of things that feel good. There aren't sales that we've got the order. And competitors are hungry, I mean you know and so we don't count on it. So we actually know, and we'll see. But like I said, I've also got this nagging concern about a very flat feeling US economy and we're big in the US. So there is a lot of pressure against us.

Scott Graham

Analyst

Fair enough. On the margin side I know that it is a just a core discipline within your company to drive productivity. This year we had really some mix issues knowing at the margin some spending that we had to take care of earlier in the year and what have you and we ended up really kind of with the flat margin year-over-year, flattish. And I know that's not what you want, Dave. So is there a thinking here in 2012 that there are certain productivity measures that need to accelerate or do you see maybe a lower level of spending to kind of give you that year-over-year margin growth that I think you're looking for.

David Wathen

Management

We had a good productivity year in 2011 and our current rollups for 2012 look like a good productivity year, the 3% plus kind of overall productivity. The question is how do we -- part of the question is, how do we spend it. And we are choosing to invest growth programs and I can tell you anecdotes, but I can assure you I've said in operating reviews and had the management team say, Dave, we could be up X if you haven't told us to do Y. And that Y is usually a growth program in Asia or something that's kind of expensive where you go part sales engineers and that kind of thing. So we are making conscious choices to spend money to grow TriMas. Now, how do we keep overall, we grew, growing gets us leverage on our overall cost and holding cost and driving cost down a little and then leveraging the overall, you'll see our margins continue to grow. That said, it's like a lot of things, it's kind of horse race and even the model says right now push harder on the top-line and spend the -- spend both invest in the front end and spend money on the capacity that we'll need to serve at.

Scott Graham

Analyst

Okay. Fair enough. Another question, the acquisition, the Arminak, so 70% ownership, I assume you're going to consolidate that and give us a minority interest type of line, does that sound right?

A. Zeffiro

Management

That's correct.

Scott Graham

Analyst

Yes. So then I've heard different pieces of accretion versus expense on this call and in the transcript, would you mind Mark maybe just telling us what you expect accretion, what you expect to be expense and maybe what the net is, so maybe just clarify it for me?

A. Zeffiro

Management

Let's just get jump to the net, the net is, in terms of EPS accretion, $0.03 to $0.05 within year.

Scott Graham

Analyst

$0.03 to $0.05, Okay.

A. Zeffiro

Management

Which is net of everything else and what I've told you is that from a planning perspective it's kind of mid-teens in terms of operating profit level which will give you a sense as to what the step up and obviously the cost structure associated with the business is.

Scott Graham

Analyst

Yes, no, got that. Last question, similar housekeeping, if we were to look at, I assume there isn't going to be an 8-K to go back and restate the first 3 quarters of the year for the discontinue operations?

A. Zeffiro

Management

No. The answer is certainly, no.

Scott Graham

Analyst

Right. That's fine. So can we look at what happened in the fourth quarter of last year and kind of straight line that for the first 3 quarters for modeling purposes?

A. Zeffiro

Management

I mean, plus or minus that's a good planning basis to consider.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We'll hear next from Walt Liptak with Barrington Research.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

So we've had a pretty good discussion so far, but I haven't heard any mention about pricing and I wonder what you're seeing from the price cost relationship. You're taking up prices, yet in any of your different business?

David Wathen

Management

We have -- yes, Walt we've had a variety of price increases where needed. Plastics, and of course we usually use a -- the reason is a commodity cost that's out of our control. So like plastics. Plastics and Specialty steels are the place that we're continuing to see some commodity cost increases. The other side, we'd say standard kind of steals have kind of flat and a lot of other commodities, kind of flat. Copper is way up, but feels kind of flat, that kind of thing. So overall, we probably had a good time on the price versus cost curve, in that, a lot of cost increases are moderating and the price effect does kick in some.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

Okay. So you...

David Wathen

Management

We've been behind at different times, I think we're probably kind of flat now.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

Okay. But in 2012, you've generally taken up prices?

David Wathen

Management

Yes. In the places we needed to. Yes.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

Okay. Okay. And if I can just go back to the aerospace segment again, the -- how much incremental CapEx are you doing this year in the monogram business?

A. Zeffiro

Management

Incremental no, it's kind of similar planning levels that we've experienced in the past and it's not something that we've -- I mean, there isn't a significant step up there, well.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

Okay. Is it...

A. Zeffiro

Management

It's really about lean activities; it's really about making the footprint yet more efficient. There is some consideration obviously in terms of what we've talked about in terms of expanding our global footprint, but nothing different really from an overall planning perspective.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

Okay. So this is more efficient machinery at the plant or.

David Wathen

Management

Yes, but we started that and I'd see a year ago. We did quite a bit of automated testing equipment. We did a round of some assembly equipment that worked well, so we're going in and doubling up on that, the same on machining centers. We have done big upgrade to the anodizing and plating processes a year-and-a-half ago. So, it's a business I am willing to spend on and we've had some pretty good successes and so we will do more of the same, which is always a good thing because you're pretty sure it's going to work well.

A. Zeffiro

Management

And frankly from a planning perspective, I think, Dave, in his prepared remarks said this that we're on the higher end of our normal run rate of capacity and capability additions for rest of the company. So obviously monogram will be part and parcel of that overall planning efforts.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

So, it sounds like aerospace definitely has a tailwind to it, have you said -- I don't know if you said what you think the growth rate is going to be, is 2012 the year we start seeing significant growth or is it more 2013?

A. Zeffiro

Management

We already experienced some pretty significant growth in 2011. It just gets masked by -- if we're talking about really the aerospace portion, it's gets masked by the defense side of it, which has been in a step down since 2008 really. So, 2012 should be we feel the stabilizing year in terms of defense. So we should start to see that naturally add additional dollars on the sales side of the House. So when you take that a step closer in terms of 2012, 2012 should be consistent with 2011 in terms of continued ramp up rates and in terms of the core monogram aerospace business.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

Okay. Okay, how big is the NI business at this point in terms of revenue?

A. Zeffiro

Management

High single-digit, 8 or 9.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

Okay. Okay, got it. Okay, all right.

A. Zeffiro

Management

Yes. Obviously it goes back to, let's say, to complete the question and goes back to I think its peak levels was about $18 million. And that goes back to 2008.

Walter Liptak

Analyst

Okay. But it sounds like even though it's in decline there might be some programs that you pick up?

A. Zeffiro

Management

Exactly. We're in the throws right now, it's too soon to announce, but we're in the throes of obviously, the request for proposals and all that kind of good stuff and to try to put this business back in an operating fashion versus let's say a facility management effort.

Operator

Operator

And we will hear from Gregory Macosko with Lord, Abbett.

Gregory Macosko

Analyst

Just 2 brief questions with regard to the working capital goal that you've clearly ahead of it there. Is that a stable goal; are you -- anything changing you expected there for 2012?

David Wathen

Management

No, I would -- we said as we've a couple of years ago, we modeled what we ought to be able to run that and said we ought to be get to the 13%. Underneath that, it's a series of choices. There are still -- we've still got parts of TriMas that on a turn on a turns basis have too much working capital. And so we keep working that down. But we're swapping it for putting the inventory in places where we don't plants for us a lot time that's been in Asia. And so we're swapping it to call it inventory investment kind of things. Payables, receivables, we keep working and measuring all the different metrics, we're doing pretty -- I'm happy with our performance on both of those. So it really is inventory and the choices you make or you keep trying to get turns up and then versus where you make in a specific investment for our customer needs.

Gregory Macosko

Analyst

Okay, fine I understand. And then finally did you on -- Arminak compete for that with anybody else was there -- was it's kind of a competitive situation?

David Wathen

Management

No, it was not. It was not a bid situation and we have to reconnect with an exclusive period of negotiation. It's a very -- as you could imagine very friendly kind of think. We complement each other very, very well.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] It appears that there are no further questions at this time.

David Wathen

Management

Okay. As we certainly appreciate the attention, you know we are totally dedicated to improving TriMas. And 4,000 plus of us pulling together, common metrics, common processes, common incentive systems and we intend to keep improving. So thanks again. Thanks for your attention.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen this does conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.