Tom Casey
Analyst · Alembic Global Advisors. Your line is now open
Thanks, Brennen. Those of you who know me will know that I don’t normally speak and I whisper when I’m talking to you, or actually when I’m talking to anybody, but I seem to have lost my voice at a very opportune time. So please excuse me. I’ll try to be clear, and if not, please follow-up in the questions. Thanks. Let me say that we are very pleased to make two significant announcements today. First, we are announcing very strong fourth quarter results. Specifically, we reported revenue of $548 million, adjusted EBITDA of $105 million, which is an increase over what is typically a seasonally stronger third quarter. Cash from operations was $88 million and EPS of $1 which reflects a major accrual reversed, which will be discussed later. For now, I just want to say that the global pigment selling prices continue to rise in the fourth quarter. Sales volumes were stronger than any fourth quarter since 2007. Our production plants continue to run at near maximum utilization rates and inventories up and down the supply chain remain tight as far as we can see. We are already seeing pigment selling prices increase in the first quarter, and we believe these results establish that the recovery in TiO2 is strong and durable, but we also want to announce what we believe is an even more important development in the creation of increased shareholder value for Tronox investors, and that is, the signing of a definitive agreement to acquire Cristal’s TiO2 business. Together, we will form the world’s largest TiO2 producer and we’ll be the most highly integrated pigment and mineral sands producer in the world. This is a highly strategic and synergistic combination that will bring significant value to our shareholders, our customers, and our employees. The acquisition is expected to be both substantially accretive and deleveraging upon closing. Let me be more specific. We expect to realize pre-tax run-rate synergies of over $100 million by year one and over $200 million by year three. We expect EPS accretion of more than 100% versus Tronox standalone in year one. And in the first three years, we expect EPS pro forma growth of 70%, compounded. We expect it will increase our EBITDA by 60% in the year one versus Tronox standalone, with pro forma growth of 30% in the first three years and free cash flow to increase by 90% versus standalone Tronox in year one, with pro forma growth of 60% in the first three years. The transaction will enable rapid deleveraging with no additional permanent debt being taken on. [indiscernible] (05:36) leverage ratio by more than 50%. The combination will significantly increase our growth rates by creating faster-growing EBITDA, free cash flow, and earnings streams. It expands our global footprint and increases our participation in faster-growing emerging markets. This is an opportune time for this combination as it allows both companies to broaden the customer bases and geographic presence while expanding the degree of vertical integration that will enable lower cost production for the benefit of all customers. The terms of the deal are fairly straightforward. Cristal shareholders will receive $1.673 billion of cash and Class A ordinary shares representing 24% ownership in pro forma Tronox. Concurrently with this announcement, we have announced our intent to begin a process to sell our Alkali business. The cash portion of the purchase consideration will be funded through the proceeds from the sale of assets including Alkali. If required, the purchase consideration will be supported by temporary bridge financing. As a result of this acquisition, Tronox will have extensive titanium feedstock reserves and the ilmenite inventory. We’ll use these reserves to supply our slag furnaces and we can monetize the balance. As we have said in previous calls, the ilmenite market is recovering and selling this surplus supply is looking increasingly attractive. On slide four, we talk about the strategic rationale. We are very excited to have signed this agreement with Cristal. They have world-class TiO2 operations that are highly complementary with Tronox’s asset base. We have followed Cristal closely over the years and have been in discussions with them on and off about a possible combination for almost 18 months. So we are very excited now to have the opportunity to finally combine our businesses. Our transaction will create substantial new shareholder value such that we’ll deleverage the new company’s balance sheet by 50%. In my view, the substantial accretion and deleveraging we expect to occur upon closing is one of the most powerful aspects of our combination. New Tronox will have the largest scale of any TiO2 producer with 1.3 million metric tons of TiO2 pigment production capacity produced from 11 pigment plants and 1.5 million metric tons of feedstock capacity, six ilmenite mining locations, two slag productions plants, and one synthetic rutile production plant. We will be approximately 85% vertically integrated on a net TiO2 basis. The benefits of our scale and level of integration are substantial, as they allow us to run our mining and feedstock assets at full utilization which will minimize our cost per ton and maximize our margins, because we know we have a guaranteed customer for all mineral sands product that we produce. Mineral sands asset returns will increase as a result of our reduced exposure to the volatility in the high grade feedstock merchant market. As I said, 100% of our high grade feedstock will be consumed internally. This increased vertical integration will also enable enhanced margin capture throughout future cycles. Moving to slide five for a summary of the transaction. 76% of the new pro forma Tronox will be held by Tronox shareholders and 24% will be held by Cristal shareholders. There is a three year lock-up that permits Cristal or its shareholders to sell a maximum of 4% in aggregate of the total shares during that period and prohibits them from acquiring more than 24% of total shares for three years after closing. The size of the company’s board of directors will remain unchanged to nine members. Cristal’s owners will receive two of the nine existing seats. Exxaro Mineral Resources will remain on the board with its three seats. I will remain Chairman and CEO and our corporate offices will remain in Stamford, Connecticut. We will continue as a public company listed on the New York Stock Exchange and remain incorporated in the State of Western Australia, Australia, as we are today. The acquisition has received the unanimous approval of the Tronox, Cristal, and Tasnee board of directors. The transaction is subject to the approval of Tronox shareholders for Class A and Class B voting together as well as regulatory approval and customary closing conditions. Closing is expected to occur in late 2017. Tronox anticipates completing the sale process of its Alkali business in the third quarter of 2017. For those of you that may not be familiar with the breadth and depth of Cristal’s operations, here is a snapshot. Cristal is the world’s second TiO2 pigment producer with 858,000 metric tons of TiO2 production capacity. 84% of their production uses the chloride technology. Their financial performance across the cycle has been strong with average EBITDA of $385 million over the 2011-2016 period. Their operations are high-quality with well-invested assets and highly automated manufacturing processes. They are highly integrated into mining, chlorine, air separation, energy facilities, and they have a 500,000 metric ton slag production complex currently under commissioning. They are the largest producer of merchant high-quality titanium tetrachloride known as TiCl and the global leader in specialty, catalyst grade TiO2. They also operate mineral sands operations in Australia with 258 million tons of reserves. Moving to slide seven, we’ll look at the scale of the combined enterprise. The new Tronox will form the largest TiO2 producer with 11 pigment plants in eight countries, with more than 1.3 million tons of production capacity representing 15% of the world’s TiO2 capacity. On slide eight, we discuss that we will also become the world’s second largest mineral sands producer and be approximately 85% vertically integrated on a net TiO2 basis. As I mentioned earlier, one of the most significant and powerful benefits of our combination lies in the effects of our greater integration. It will allow the guaranteed sale of 100% of our feedstock production. While those facilities, the feedstock production facilities are themselves operating at a 100% of capacity along with normal efficiency improvements, we continually make, this will enable our Mineral Sands business to operate at as low a cost structure as is possible. Mineral sands asset returns will increase as a result of our reduced exposure to the volatility in high-grade feedstock merchant market. And so 100% of our high-grade feedstock will be consumed internally. This increased vertical integration will also enable enhanced margin capture throughout the cycle. Turning to slide 9, here’s a look at the expanded and balanced global footprint of new Tronox. With 11 pigment plants in eight countries, and six mines and mineral separation plants in three countries and two smelters, and one synthetic rutile plant, our global expanse will enable us to better serve our customers worldwide by reducing the average distance to their facilities and enabling a more diverse suite of products for their specific needs. Slide 10, the balanced geographical sales mix is shown across the five major markets with 28% of sales in Asia-Pacific, 27% in North America, 20% in Europe, 14% in the Middle East and Africa, and 11% in Latin America. We will benefit from significantly greater participation in the higher growth emerging markets, and we will now participate in the specialty anatase and ultrafine markets. On slide 11, we again discuss shareholder value creation. We think this transaction will result in significant shareholder creation. We had average EBITDA performance over the period 2011 to 2016, Tronox and Cristal have combined to deliver an average $813 million EBITDA rate annually. The increased margin, when we become 85% self supplied with feedstock will combine with synergies, that we have already said, we estimate will be over $100 million in year one, rising to over $200 million in year three. Based on this historical performance and the identified signatories, we should exceed $1 billion of annual EBITDA by year three. In fact, we believe that the strength and durability of the recovery in the TiO2 market and the resulting increase in sales of our products could enable us to achieve this milestone even sooner. Slide 12 discusses in more detail, the components of the expected synergies, the growth over the next four years, and the associated cost to achieve them. We anticipate closing late this year. In year one, we expect to generate pre-tax run rate synergies of over a $100 million, growing to over $200 million by year three, and $230 million by year four. These synergies will be derived from a number of areas: logistics, feedstock, operations, SG&A and supply chain. Within these areas, major sources include: running our mineral sands assets at full utilization, which will thus lower our cost per ton, optimizing the value and use of our feedstock, sharing of best practices across complementary technologies, production facilities and production geographies, leveraging the successful operational excellence program in our current TiO2 business, eliminating significant supplier redundancies, reducing average distances to our customers through enhanced global footprint, consolidating third-party spending and redundant functions along with the elimination of redundant corporate costs. Our fourth quarter performance provided a strong finish to 2016, as our TiO2 and Alkali business combined to deliver $126 million of adjusted EBITDA and a $100 million of free cash flow. Driving the performance in TiO2 were a number of factors are our highest fourth quarter and month of December pigment sales volumes, higher pigment selling prices, which increased 1% sequentially and 7% above the prior year, higher feedstock and co-products sales volumes, and continued cost reductions resulting from the success of our Operational Excellence program. As we have said, 2016 marked the recovery in global TiO2 markets. We expect the momentum generated last year to continue in 2017 based on our view that pigment inventories in the aggregate are at or below normal levels at both customer and producer locations across the globe, resulting in continued supply-demand tightness. As a result, we expect another sequential improvement in pigment selling prices in the first quarter. Alkali’s performance was driven by higher production volumes, lower operating costs, and increased production efficiencies. Our cash generation in the quarter reflected the strong performance by both our businesses. We closed the quarter with cash of $248 million, and liquidity of $533 million, up from cash of $202 million and liquidity of $470 million, respectively, as of September 30. And our board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.045 per share. We would normally review our progress in our Operational Excellence program with you in specific detail in this call. But in the appendix of your slides, you’ll find those specifics, such as our cost reduction and working capital reduction performance as well as the EBITDA bridge, showing the sources of our cost reductions and tying the bridge to our reported financial statements so that you can reconcile our performance. But I will say that we are ahead of schedule in meeting our targets. Cumulative cash generated from annual cost reductions totaled $246 million through the end of 2016. Cumulative cash generated from working capital reduction totaled $240 million through the end of 2016. Therefore, total aggregate cash generated from our Operational Excellence program in its first two years is $486 million. I’ll close my remarks by sharing our perspective on 2017. We will work diligently towards closing the acquisition of the Cristal assets by the fourth quarter of this year, and at the same time, continue our laser-like focus on generating high performance on our current portfolio. Tronox as a standalone will continue to perform very well. As you’ve seen, our TiO2 business generated significant momentum in 2016. The momentum comes from higher pigment sales volumes and higher selling prices coupled with a continued strong operating cost performance. We expect that momentum to continue in 2017 because all of the conditions in the market favor remaining tightness in the supply-demand balance. And this include taking into account Chinese pigment producers. We will continue to match our pigment production to meet demand while keeping inventory at or below normal levels. Once again, we are selling all the pigment we make and we are running our pigment production plants at practical full capacity. In December, we announced the pigment price increase, our fourth announcement in the last 12 months. The last three quarters we have raised pigment selling prices by 12% above their first quarter 2016 trough level. And as I said earlier, we expect another sequential increase in selling prices in the first quarter. With respect to the titanium feedstock market, prices for ilmenite, which is the first level titanium feedstock, have more than doubled in the last three months in China. Because this is the input into of higher grade feedstock production, they will add cost pressure to producers of those high-grade feedstocks. This should provide further support for rising higher grade feedstock selling prices. If this occurs, they will provide cost pressure on non-integrated pigment producers, providing further motivation for pigment selling prices in 2017. Under that scenario, we, of course, will benefit from rising margins at both the mineral sands level and the pigment level with respect to our own CP slag inventory and production levels. We signed 100,000 metric ton supply contract for delivery of slag in 2017. This will allow us to further reduce our inventories and to restart furnaces that have been shutdown and to use that additional production to serve our own needs without affecting the market supply-demand balance. In Alkali, 2016 performance included a number of one-off items that impacted results. Those items are now behind us and fourth quarter EBITDA of $46 million confirm them. In 2017, we expect Alkali to return to adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow levels that overcome and exceed the one-off items of last year, and deliver another year of solid adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. With that, I thank you. Again, I apologize for my voice and we’ll open the call for questions.