Thomas J. Casey - Tronox Ltd.
Management
Well, let's talk about that. In Turkey, the biggest supply increment of supply that we can identify is the plant – in plants, plural, in Turkey that Ciner is operating and bringing online in 2017. They have a 500,000 ton incremental production in the sort of middle part of 2017, scheduled for the middle part of 2017, we don't know when it will actually show up, of course. And then, another one, I think a million ton production facility coming in at towards the end of 2017. So we expect that will be largely felt in the marketplace in 2018, to be honest. But this is a 60,000 ton, 60 million ton market globally. And the Ciner supply in Turkey is natural soda ash, so we'll have similar cost characteristics to what we have in the United States. Europe is largely supplied, and the Middle East and Africa are largely supplied by synthetic producers with a much larger or much higher cost structure than a natural soda ash producer. So we would expect that the vast majority of the short-term volume coming out of that that new facility will go into Europe and go into the Middle East and Africa regions. We don't expect to see a big impact in North America, because we're already competing, we already have a cost structure comparable to theirs and we don't have the transport costs associated with moving that product in. With respect to China production, China has presence in the Asia-Pac markets largely. All along, they set the price in the Asia-Pac markets, because they are the highest cost producer. We generally can sell what we want in the Asia-Pac market in terms of volumes, and the price in the market will be set by the highest cost producer. As we talked about a couple of quarters now, costs for the Chinese producers, who are largely how and synthetic – method production facilities. Their coal and their other input costs, their shipping costs, their energy costs, all went down, the yuan went down, and so their whole cost structure moved down, that allowed them to move their price into the Asia-Pac markets down. And we, of course then match the price and continue to sell at volume in Asia-Pac. As their cost move back up which we – as I said we've already beginning to see some signs, particularly in the coal market, then their prices will have to move up with it, and we expect that to be certainly not worse and potentially better.