Doug Lebda
Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is open. Earnings Call
Thank you, Gabe, and thanks, everyone for joining the call today. Now that Gabe's walked you through a financial results I'd like to provide you with a bit more context on our performance along with updated guidance and our outlook for the remainder of the year. As you can see from our results, LendingTree had yet another exceptional quarter. I can proudly say our team has performed phenomenally well and has once again proven to the market and to our shareholders that we have the ability to recover from upsets within the industry and thrive in various macroeconomic and market conditions. In a challenging quarter, we optimized our business to expand margins and delivered record profits. It's clearer than ever that this business backed by this exceptional team is poised to scale and is perfectly positioned to capitalize on the industry's online transformation. In our mortgage business, we produced another record quarter of revenue. This is the fourth consecutive quarter, where LendingTree has outpaced the overall mortgage industry. Notably, 63% of our lenders actually increased their spend this quarter, and we successfully launched our new CRA product, bringing new lenders and satisfying an underserved need of many existing lenders on our network. Revenue from our second exchange grew 26% over the first quarter alone, primarily due to improved conversion. Very late in the second quarter and moving into Q3, we've seen mortgage rates drop materially. As I'm sure you've heard me say many times in the past, when rates drop we're flooded with volume and our CPLs meaning our customer acquisition costs fall. At the same time, lenders see an increase in their own organic volume and therefore tightened filters and tightened capacity with us. Because of this, we expect revenue to be only modestly higher in Q3, but [ph] greater marketing efficiencies, our margins will expand and we'll be able to contribute more to the bottom line. In non-mortgage, the biggest story was in personal loans, which Gabe already described. The key takeaway and a point I want to emphasize is that profit contribution was actually up quarter-over-quarter in personal loans. In addition to adding new lenders, several of which have incredibly stable funding models, we also have a number of lenders that began offering new financing solutions. Because of this, our match rate in personal loans which had plateaued [ph] to about 50% has now improved over 60% as of June. Given the improving fundamentals and the strong lender pipeline, we're more confident than ever in the stability, profitability, and growth opportunity of our personal loans business moving forward. In short, we expect to see sequential growth in Q3 and a return to normal heading into 2017. In credit cards, the second quarter brought some expected seasonal softness, however, we’re making progress on multiple initiatives on the credit card marketing front. And we're particularly excited about the success in generating inquiries from our My LendingTree customer base. In home equity, we added another six new active lenders and now have four of the five largest banks partnering with us. Home prices are up 38% since bottoming in 2012, and are only 8% below their all-time peak in 2007. As home values continue to improve, customer demand follows, which is evidenced by the fact that home equity requests are up 48% over the first quarter alone and up more than 140% year-over-year. Moving on to My LendingTree, where we continue to roll out new features and improve the customer experience across the board. In the second quarter, we revamped 26 alerts, added another 20 that are brand new, several of which are primarily focused on improving credit scores. By doing so, we're able to improve customers' lendability and increase the users' engagement on our platform. What I'm particularly excited about is the positive feedback we're receiving from consumers. We started to collect NPS scores on the My LendingTree experience and it's roughly 50 basis points higher than the traditional LendingTree experience. All of this contributes to a significant year-over-year increase in revenue contribution and solidifies our confidence in the success of this innovative product. Finally, we expect to have a major new release for our mobile app in Q3, at which point we plan to test marketing in the mobile app as a standalone acquisition channel. With that context in hand, I'd like to give some color around our expectations for the third quarter and our revised outlook. Revenue for the third quarter is expected to grow to $96 million to $99 million, reflecting continued sequential growth in mortgage and a rebound in non-mortgage. More importantly, variable marketing margin is expected to grow to $35 million to $36.5 million. As a percentage of revenue, our margin profile is expected to improve this quarter and adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be $16.5 million to $17.5 million reflecting year-over-year growth of 50% to 59%. For the full year, we expect revenues to remain in the range of $380 million to $390 million. And for VMM, we are increasing guidance again to $137 million to $139 million, up from the prior figure of $134 million to $137 million. On adjusted EBITDA, we are lifting the range from $62 million to $65 million to $64 million to $66 million, passing through to investors the upside of our Q2 outperformance. As I mentioned previously, there are scenarios where we can grow the business by aggressively growing the top line, and there are scenarios, where it makes sense to grow the business through expanded margins. In the near-term we're taking the latter approach, but at the end of the day, we've just navigated substantial headwinds to deliver a record quarter and we're now committed to better results than we promised just three months ago. With that operator, we're happy to take questions.